Captain, while a great many people see you as a hero, there are some who prefer the word Derby. | Week 19

[POTUS 2020]

17 hours ago, JMorphin said:

looks like a good score would be breaking 80.  Several movies in the top 10 dropped close to 70%, very harsh!  Awaiting Matrix4You's projections

Scores got even worse by a few points with studio estimates. I've never seen this before. MD is above all picks. CA3, Keanu, zoo, ratchet and BvS are below everyone. The average score will be in the 60s and just 2 or 3 above 80.

[cannastop]

I just hope I'm not in last place.

[POTUS 2020]

8 hours ago, cannastop said:

I just hope I'm not in last place.

Nope. Johnny brain farted  again. He was the one that put .01 in a couple of picks.  You have him beat and a few others I'm sure

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Nope. Johnny brain farted  again. He was the one that put .01 in a couple of picks.  You have him beat and a few others I'm sure

Well, I wouldn't consider it a success to beat someone who made a typo.

[POTUS 2020]

18 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, I wouldn't consider it a success to beat someone who made a typo.

Part of any competition includes proper preparation, readiness and execution. Remembering to bring  tap shoes to a dance competition is as important as knowing how to tap. Someone forgets to finish picks or typos or has computer problems is part of the contest.  I'm sure you'll you'll have quite a few more beat regardless

[dxmatrixdt]

DERBY UPDATE:   (ERROR ALERT) – I might be missing something here, the average seems low.    71.345 average, 58 players. Welcome to:  jrKan, coolEric258, Frankos72, jesserifkin, and Ridhoazka18.  MarcusG, M37, MCkillswitch123, BK007, DAR, Gamb1993, glassfairy, Olive, Dexter of Suburbia, and AABattery returned.  BIG, BIG turnout.  We missed out with Tower this week.  I put the top 10 in like this: 

Civil War – 179

Jungle Book – 25

Huntsman – 3.9

Keanu – 3.2

Mother’s Day – 11.25

Barbershop – 2.75

Zootopia – 3.1

Ratchet and Clank – 1.55

The Boss – 1.8

Batman V Superman – 1.08

 

Not sure what happened this weekend with the holdovers.  The Friday numbers were very low.  Comparing  the weeks for  The Avengers(2012),  Age of Ultron,  and The Force Awakens, their respective holdovers had stronger Friday numbers and per screen averages than what took place this week.  Following those patterns should have given better numbers for holdovers this week going down through the top 20.  I really do not think spillover business was the reason why the three comparison weeks had decent holdovers.  I think theaters have it down to a science to get as many show times as possible opening week for a mega tent pole so whoever wants to see it, can see it.  My theory would be for this weekend, lack of overall interest for the rest of the movies up and down (besides Jungle book and Mothers Day).  When the Force Awakens came out, Krampus and Mockingjay held strong on Friday.  When Ultron came out, a lot of the top 20 held strong on Friday compared to the previous Friday. 

Here is a look at the possible top 20 this week with my rearranged estimates.

No Prisoners	85.419
nelmsey	82.769
AndyLL	82.415
Jmorphin	81.803
moviecriticguy	81.590
MarcusG	81.544
JJ-8	81.455
M37	81.405
Bates	79.654
TalismanRing	78.287
BK007	77.510
Ridhoazka18	76.976
Rolling Thunder	76.859
DAR	76.664
8wombi7	76.508
MCKIllswitch123	75.990
Fanboy	75.934
chasmmi	75.920
BoxofficeZ	75.511
PanaMovie	75.503

[Rolling Thunder]

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

I've said this ad nauseum, but I think they overestimated Zootopia's Sunday drop so that they'd be extra sure that it passed BvS.

[POTUS 2020]

After 41 years of tracking BO...

After 15 years of playing the derby....

A blind squirrel finally finds a nut

That Ray.

 

Hopefully in the not too distant future I can be a broken clock!

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This weekend didn't follow any of the recent historical trajectories.  Films dropped hard on Thursday due to CA previews and yet the Friday increases were comparatively weak and the IMs were not fantastic outside of TJB and Mother's Day.  This was a total disaster week and really no way to see it coming beforehand.  Disney also didn't manipulate either TJB or Zootopia - presumably so CA so could hold onto every dollar in light of a solid but non record-setting performance.

I saw it coming

But then again I'm blind.

[Rolling Thunder]

2 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

I saw it coming

But then again I'm blind.

 

I'll stop short of spraying myself with Windex next weekend, but I do have a handy blindfold.  I'll dust it off and give it a shot.

[POTUS 2020]

16 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I'll stop short of spraying myself with Windex next weekend, but I do have a handy blindfold.  I'll dust it off and give it a shot.

Next weekend is going to screw with players again

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Next weekend is going to screw with players again

Perfect opportunity for me to be #1.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by cannastop

[ChipDerby]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I've said this ad nauseum, but I think they overestimated Zootopia's Sunday drop so that they'd be extra sure that it passed BvS.

 

lol, yes, because they care whether they passed BvS on Sunday or literally any day after.

[AndyLL]

7 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

After 41 years of tracking BO...

After 15 years of playing the derby....

A blind squirrel finally finds a nut

That Ray.

 

Hopefully in the not too distant future I can be a broken clock!

 

You're assuming actuals don't drop you down to 2nd.... 

[TalismanRing]

Congrats @No Prisoners 

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

@TalismanRing  I'm getting old but I made it just in time. Oh those younger days with sonny

Edited May 10, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, AndyLL said:

 

You're assuming actuals don't drop you down to 2nd.... 

 those scores tightened up. Had a 5 pt lead with studio estimates.  3 with rth and matrix update and finished just 1.5 ahead.

Thang jesus this mofo didn't show up

[narniadis]

LOL way to go No Prisoners... I shall ignore my horrible showing this week *sigh*

[AndyLL]

3 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

 those scores tightened up. Had a 5 pt lead with studio estimates.  3 with rth and matrix update and finished just 1.5 ahead.

Thang jesus this mofo didn't show up

 

 

Of course I didn't post that until I had already run the score calcs. It did tighten up quite a bit:

 

Rank	Player	Total Score	New Release Score	Holdover Score	Difference from Avg. Score	Total Points	Predicted Movies

	1	No Prisoners	84.915%	93.379%	83.975%	13.152%	58	10
	2	nelmsey	83.126%	85.927%	82.814%	11.362%	57	10
	3	M37	82.398%	78.698%	82.809%	10.635%	56	10
	4	moviecriticguy	82.127%	90.588%	81.187%	10.364%	55	10
	5	JMorphin	81.768%	88.355%	81.036%	10.004%	54	10
	6	AndyLL	81.255%	87.797%	80.528%	9.492%	53	10
	7	MarcusG	81.077%	79.982%	81.199%	9.314%	52	10
	8	JJ-8	79.721%	79.742%	79.719%	7.958%	51	10
	9	Bates	79.621%	88.355%	78.650%	7.858%	50	10
	10	TalismanRing	78.729%	82.773%	78.280%	6.966%	49	10
	11	BK007	77.761%	95.166%	75.827%	5.998%	48	10
	12	8wombi7	76.887%	79.876%	76.555%	5.124%	47	10
	13	Ridhoazka18	76.736%	89.360%	75.333%	4.973%	46	10
	14	Rolling Thunder	76.541%	81.450%	75.996%	4.778%	45	10
	15	BoxOfficeZ	76.148%	90.030%	74.605%	4.385%	44	10
	16	DAR	76.065%	80.786%	75.540%	4.302%	43	10
	17	Fanboy	75.866%	91.147%	74.168%	4.103%	42	10
	18	Matrix4You	75.861%	83.879%	74.970%	4.098%	41	10
	19	PanaMovie	75.618%	90.421%	73.974%	3.855%	40	10