Best Screenplays 2016 (Original and Adapted)

[mahnamahna]

Since Zootopia is probably the best of the WDAS resurgence thus far (its screenplay being one of its strongest aspects), I can definitely see the Academy giving it an Original Screenplay nomination alongside Best Song and Best Animated Feature. Unlike Tangled/Wreck-it Ralph/Frozen/Big Hero 6, it has some strong sociopolitical commentary and a great use of sarcasm/irony throughout. It's closer to classic Pixar than a typical animated film. 

 

It doesn't have a chance at a BP nomination, but Original Screenplay is definitely doable if Disney campaigns for it. 

Edited July 7, 2016 by mahnamahna

[cannastop]

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/

Awards Circuit updated last week, and here are their top 10 lists for the screenplay categories.

 

Original:

1. Loving

2. The Lobster (I'm pretty sure they bumped up its ranking)

3.  Manchester by the Sea

4. 20th Century Women (Never heard of this before)

5. La La Land

6. Miss Sloane (New addition, I think)

7. The Birth of a Nation

8. The Founder (Bumped up to the top 10)

9. The Promise

10. Zootopia (Bumped up to the top 10)

 

Adapted:

1. Fences

2. Silence

3. American Pastoral

4. The Circle

5. Lion

6. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

7. HHhH

8. Moonlight

9. Nocturnal Animals

10. The Light Between Oceans

 

I haven't heard of quite a few of these movies, so the race might be a bit interesting this year.

[cannastop]

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/07/29/predictions-friday-mckinnon-for-supporting-oj-for-best-picture-genre/

 

This is what Awards Daily thinks of the screenplay race:

 

Original Screenplay:
Loving, Jeff Nichols
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
La La Land, Damien Chazelle
Birth of a Nation, Nate Parker
Passengers, Jon Spaihts

 

Adapted Screenplay:
Fences, Tony Kushner
Silence, Jay Cocks
Indignation, James Schamus
Billy Lynn, Jean-Christophe Castelli
Arrival, Eric Heisserer

 

They differ from Awards Circuit in that they have Passengers getting a nomination, and they have higher hopes for Arrival and Indignation.

[Jake Gittes]

Been thinking since Sundance that Manchester-By-The-Sea is likely to win Original. La La Land and Birth of a Nation will probably be its main competition. And I'd really love it if The Lobster got in, if it's gonna get nominated anywhere it'll be here.

 

Adapted looks like it's gonna be between Fences, Silence and Billy Lynn. 

[Alpha]

If I were to guess now...

 

Original Screenplay:

The Birth of a Nation

La La Land

Loving
Manchester by the Sea

Zootopia

 

Adapted Screenplay:

Arrival

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Fences

Moonlight

Silence

[cannastop]

Here's what Awards Watch thinks of the race:

http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-the-screenplays-august-silence-billy-lynn-fences-arrival-sully-manchester-by-the-sea-la-la-land-the-birth-of-a-nation-loving-moonlight/

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Silence
2. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Fences
4. Arrival
5. Sully
6. Love and Friendship
7. Lion

 

 

Original Screenplay:

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. The Birth of a Nation
4. Loving
5. Moonlight
6. 20th Century Women
7. The Lobster

Edit: They fucked up for the original screenplay category. Moonlight is based on a play.

Edited August 10, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

For the original screenplay race, I see a strong consensus around Loving, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land. You should probably also throw in The Birth of a Nation for its Best Picture buzz. Of these four, Loving might be the one most likely to be snubbed, given its slightly weaker reviews than Manchester by the Sea.

 

However, if all four get nominated, that leaves space for only one more candidate, whether it is Passengers,The Lobster, Zootopia, or 20th Century Women. I think Zootopia might have the upper hand, as Disney will likely campaign for it, and the writing branch of the Academy might remember it as the animation candidate. So I endorse @Alpha's list.

 

For adapted, Fences, Silence and Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk are the most agreed-upon. Of the other candidates, Arrival seems to have the most Best Picture buzz. Moonlight has a bit less buzz for Best Picture. So I endorse Alpha's list again.

 

Original Screenplay:
The Birth of a Nation
La La Land
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia
 
Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Fences
Moonlight
Silence
 

Edited August 10, 2016 by cannastop

[WrathOfHan]

Original:

 

The Birth of a Nation

La La Land

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

 

Adapted:

 

Arrival

Billy Lynn

Fences

Live by Night (if eligible, Nocturnal Animals if not)

Silence

[cannastop]

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/
http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/

Awards Circuit updated yet again yesterday, so I'll highlight the changes they made.

 

Original Screenplay:

1. Loving (No change)
2. Manchester by the Sea (Up from #3 last time)
3. 20th Century Women (Up from #4)
4. The Birth of a Nation (Up from #7)
5. The Lobster (Down from #2)
6. La La Land (Down from #5)
7. Allied (New to the top 10)
8. Passengers (New to the top 10)
9. Hail, Caesar (New to the top 10)
10. Zootopia (No change)

They removed Miss Sloane, The Founder and The Promise

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Fences (No change)
2. Silence (No change)
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Up from #6)
4. American Pastoral (Down from #3)
5. Moonlight (Up from #8)
6. The Circle (Down from #4)
7. Lion (Down from #5)
8. Arrival (New to the top 10)
9. Love & Friendship (New to the top 10)
10. Nocturnal Animals (Down from #9)

They removed HHhH and The Light Between Oceans.

 

 

[cannastop]

Nate Parker and Jean Celestin are getting terrible press. I think it might hurt The Birth of a Nation's Oscar chances in many categories, including screenplay.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Original Screenplay

• Birth of a Nation
• La La Land
• Loving
• Manchester By The Sea
• Rules Don't Apply

Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival
• Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
• Fences
• Love & Friendship
• Moonlight

[cannastop]

Awards Daily predictions for August 27, 2016.

 

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2016/08/27/predictions-friday-whole-lotta-shaking-going-on/

 

Original Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan
Loving, Jeff Nichols
Florence Foster Jenkins, Nicholas Martin
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
Bleed for This, Ben Younger

 

They removed La La Land, The Birth of a Nation and Passengers and replaced them with Florence Foster Jenkins, Hell or High Water and Bleed for This. I think both FFJ and that boxing biopic are dubious.

 

Adapted Screenplay
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Silence, Jay Cocks
Arrival, Eric Heisserer
Indignation, James Schamus
Sully, Todd Komarnicki
Alt. August Wilson, Fences

 

I have my doubts about Sully.

Edited August 28, 2016 by cannastop

[Kvikk Lunsj]

On 7/6/2016 at 4:00 PM, cannastop said:

I think you might have forgotten that even if I'm obnoxiously waving the Zootopia banner, I'm not the only one who really likes it.

And there's a strong precedent for movies like Zootopia to get screenplay nominations. Toy Story, Shrek, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3 and Inside Out.

I liked it but I do not think it deserving of a screenplay nod. 

[Jake Gittes]

Hell or High Water getting recognized here would be one of the most deserved noms of the season. Not sure it'll get in though. 

[filmlover]

20 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Hell or High Water getting recognized here would be one of the most deserved noms of the season. Not sure it'll get in though. 

I could see it. I also think Bridges could happen depending on what category he's placed in (his chances are probably better in Supporting).

[cannastop]

Awards Circuit updated today.

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/

 

Original Screenplay:

1. Loving
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. 20th Century Women
4. La La Land
5. The Lobster
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Allied 
8. Passengers 
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Zootopia

Birth of a Nation leaves the top 5 and La La Land joins it.

 

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Fences
2. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. American Pastoral
6. Silence
7. Arrival
8. Love & Friendship
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Hidden Figures

Silence leaves the top 5 and Lion rises to the top 5. The Circle drops from the top 10, and Hidden Figures replaces it.

[cannastop]

Updates to Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-adapted-screenplay/

 

Original Screenplay:

1. La La Land
2. Loving
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Moonlight
5. 20th Century Women
6. Jackie
7. The Lobster
8. The Birth of a Nation
9. Allied
10. Hail, Caesar

Jackie replaces Zootopia in the top 10.

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Fences
2. Silence
3. Lion
4. Nocturnal Animals
5. Billy Lynn
6. Hidden Figures
7. Arrival
8. Sully
9. Love & Friendship
10. The Girl on the Train

Nocturnal Animals ends up in the top 5.

[cannastop]

Now that both of Disney's awards contenders have fizzled out, Zootopia is the only movie they have that has a chance at a screenplay nomination. They're probably going to push it.

[CoolioD1]

i'd say 

 

original:

Hell or high water

jackie

la la land

manchester by the sea

moonlight

 

adapted:

arrival

billy lynn's long halftime walk

fences

nocturnal animals

sully

[Alpha]

Moonlight is adapted.