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cannastop

Best Screenplays 2016 (Original and Adapted)

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11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it's based on a play that's never been performed so it's a memento situation and it probably goes original.

I see Moonlight as a lock, so this is my new prediction if it's in the original category.

 

Original Screenplay:

 

  1. La La Land
  2. Manchester by the Sea
  3. Moonlight
  4. Hell or High Water
  5. Zootopia

First three are locks. Next two can't be certain until the end of the year.

 

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

  1. Billy Lynn
  2. Fences
  3. Silence
  4. Arrival
  5. Nocturnal Animals

This category seems weaker than Original.

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Disney's pulling this stunt for Oscar publicity:

 

Disney’s ‘Zootopia’ Jumps Into Clinton-Trump Debate As Oscar & Presidential Campaigns Start To Merge

http://deadline.com/2016/09/zootopia-presidential-debates-oscar-political-1201825939/

 

Spoiler

Zootopia%20Presidential%20Debate%20Invit

The article also mentions that Hell or High Water's distributor, CBS Films, pointed out topic issues in its campaign as well.

 

Edit: Just found an explanation. This is organized by The Angellotti Company, Disney's awards publicists.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-disneys-zootopia-host-debate-931948

 

Edited by cannastop
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Awards Circuit, September 26

 

Original Screenplay:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/oscar-predictions-best-original-screenplay/

 

  1. La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
  2. Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
  3. Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
  4. Loving” – Jeff Nichols
  5. Jackie” – Noah Oppenheim

 

  1. 20th Century Women” – Mike Mills
  2. The Lobster” – Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos
  3. Hell or High Water” – Taylor Sheridan
  4. Florence Foster Jenkins” – Nicholas Martin
  5. I, Daniel Blake” – Paul Laverty

I have my doubts about Loving.

 

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

 

  1. Fences” – August Wilson
  2. Silence” – Jay Cocks
  3. Lion” – Luke Davies
  4. Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford
  5. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli

 

  1. Hidden Figures” – Allison Schroeder
  2. Arrival” – Eric Heisserer
  3. Sully” – Todd Komarnicki
  4. Love & Friendship” – Whit Stillman
  5. The Girl on the Train” – Erin Cressida Wilson

Replace Lion with Arrival, in my opinion.

 

 

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16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predictions:

 

Original:

 

1. La La Land

2. Manchester by the Sea

3. Jackie

4. Moonlight

5. Hell or High Water

 

Adapted:

 

1. Silence

2. Arrival

3. Billy Lynn

4. Live by Night

5. Fences

I endorse this list. I'm no longer confident that Zootopia will get a screenplay nomination.

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Monthly Awards Watch Voting Panel

http://awardswatch.com/predictions/2017-oscar-predictions-adapted-screenplay-original-screenplay-october-silence-billy-lynn-manchester-by-the-sea-la-la-land/

 

Original Screenplay:

  1. 49 Points: Manchester by the Sea
  2. 36 Points: La La Land
  3. 27 Points: Moonlight
  4. 23 Points: Jackie
  5. 12 Points: Hell or High Water
  6. 2 Points: Loving
  7. 1 Point: The Lobster

 

Adapted Screenplay:

  1. 47 Points: Silence
  2. 41 Points: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  3. 31 Points: Fences
  4. 16 Points: Arrival
  5. 10 Points: Love and Friendship
  6. 2 Points: Hidden Figures
  7. 2 Points: Lion
  8. 1 Point: Sully

 

This is in line with @WrathOfHan's prediction, except for Love and Friendship's replacing Live by Night. There's a little uncertainty in the adapted category.

 

Edited by cannastop
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La La Land is likely not winning here-it has a chance of not even being nominated. Remember-no musical has ever won screenplay. Even West Side Story which swept the Oscars lost in this category, Sound of Music and Gigi were both not nominated.

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3 minutes ago, Impact said:

La La Land is likely not winning here-it has a chance of not even being nominated. Remember-no musical has ever won screenplay. Even West Side Story which swept the Oscars lost in this category, Sound of Music and Gigi were both not nominated.

gigi actually won fyi. and it was the last original musical to win best picture.

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

gigi actually won fyi. and it was the last original musical to win best picture.

Nope-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigi_(1958_film)#Awards_and_nominations

Also: West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Sound of Music, Oliver and Chicago are all musicals the last time I checked.

 

Edit: Wait it did win screenplay, for some reason I thought it wasn't nominated there. Still my point stands about how La La Land does have a bit of trouble winning. 
2nd edit: Missed you saying original musical.

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Just now, Impact said:

Nope-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigi_(1958_film)#Awards_and_nominations

Also: West Side Story, My Fair Lady, Sound of Music, Oliver and Chicago are all musicals the last time I checked.

it literally has best screenplay listed as a win right there.

 

and i said ORIGINAL musical. as in not based on a musical stage show (yes it's based on a book but that's different). duuhhhhh why can't you reeaaaaadddd

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14 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it literally has best screenplay listed as a win right there.

 

and i said ORIGINAL musical. as in not based on a musical stage show (yes it's based on a book but that's different). duuhhhhh why can't you reeaaaaadddd

Check when I said edit. ;)

Which I just read it wrong-and I wasn't paying attention is all to the awards, I nearly did check it is the strange part. But yeah we all misread something.

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