Does a higher Cinemascore really correlate with better box office? Anyone interested in finding out?

[johnboy3434]

I was wondering the titular question, and realized that I have the tools to figure it out (i.e., the Cinemascore website and Box Office Mojo). The only problem is the time required to type all the necessary information into a spreadsheet. I'm curious, but unless other people are as well, I'm simply not that curious. So what say you? Is the board interested in knowing if Cinemascore tells us anything (for as much a deal as is made of it), or is my time better spent elsewhere?

[superweirdo87]

Deadline had a chart showing higher Cinema Score is associated with bigger grosses.

[johnboy3434]

18 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

Deadline had a chart showing higher Cinema Score is associated with bigger grosses.

 

I'm aware of that, but someone on here (can't remember who) brought it up specifically to say that it was total bullshit, although he didn't elaborate. Is it not?

[AniNate]

It's less relevant than it used to be.  Legs can more accurately be determined by critical reception and genre precedent 

[Jay Beezy]

It's hard to say. Cinemascore is only taken the day of release. And the people that go out day one more often than not tend to judge the movie differently than those who wait to see it later.

[UrosepsisFace]

Try doing some studies w/ this, social media stats, RT%, RT audience, IMDB, and MC, lol.

[The Panda]

I literally just scatter plotted the top 50 DOM movies of 2015 and their Cinemascore and there was no correlation at all between the movies multiplier and Cinemascore 

[The Panda]

I literally just scatter plotted the top 50 DOM movies of 2015 and their Cinemascore and there was no correlation at all between the movies multiplier and Cinemascore 

[The Panda]

I literally just scatter plotted the top 50 DOM movies of 2015 and their Cinemascore and there was no correlation at all between the movies multiplier and Cinemascore 

[The Panda]

I literally just scatter plotted the top 50 DOM movies of 2015 and their Cinemascore and there was no correlation at all between the movies multiplier and Cinemascore 

[Daxtreme]

Did you now? I'm not sure  

[m3racer123]

First time I've seen a quadruple post, lol

[The Panda]

6 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

Did you now? I'm not sure  

 

Sorry about that, my phone majorly bugged out trying to post

[Barnack]

On 6/19/2016 at 0:48 AM, 2 Panda 2 Furious said:

I literally just scatter plotted the top 50 DOM movies of 2015 and their Cinemascore and there was no correlation at all between the movies multiplier and Cinemascore 

 

That seem a bit of a bad way to do it, taking 1000's in many year's, and ranking them by cinemascore seem the better way, it give this:

 

 

If you look only at the year successful movie, with all of them at the top having the same A cinemascore, it will be hard to isolate the cinemascore factor, I really doubt there is no correlation at all between an A+ cinemascore and a lower than C one with box office legs (maybe not for the few giant franchise movie that still ended up a year top 50 despite being terrible, but for the usual case).

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

That seem a bit of a bad way to do it, taking 1000's in many year's, and ranking them by cinemascore seem the better way, it give this:

 

 

If you look only at the year successful movie, with all of them at the top having the same A cinemascore, it will be hard to isolate the cinemascore factor, I really doubt there is no correlation at all between an A+ cinemascore and a lower than C one with box office legs (maybe not for the few giant franchise movie that still ended up a year top 50 despite being terrible, but for the usual case).

 

An odd thread bump, but earlier this year I added cinemascore to my regression model for all of the wide releases of 2016 and Cinemascore came out as not significant.

 

I could throw in some additional years, but there's a problem when you measure back beyond a few years.  Inflation, the structure of the industry changes (as in, movies overtime are slowly more and more frontloaded), the fact that there's more and more fan-oriented movies (meaning the people being measured by cinemascore are overtime becoming more and more skewed to show how fan's liked the movie and not necessarily the GA), etc.

 

It's a particularly flawed method that gets to much credit.

[Barnack]

Because I searched it and did end up on this message board.

 

Yeah it could be hard to predict or useless for fan movies (that will still get a good cinemascore while being terrible), but when Hidden Figure got A+ it was perfectly valid to predict solid legs to it.

 

 

Quote

 

It's a particularly flawed method that gets to much credit.

 

 Like this

It tend to often get none. When at least in the past it had an extremely strong correlation. One possible issue is people not using fan franchise big weekend cinemascore and the rest of the slate cinemascore as 2 different entity. A bit like when people just graph metacritic score and box office and find a negative correlation, instead of just comparing metacritic score among similar size release.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Barnack

[Outrageous!]

On 4/20/2017 at 10:43 AM, The Panda said:

 

An odd thread bump, but earlier this year I added cinemascore to my regression model for all of the wide releases of 2016 and Cinemascore came out as not significant.

 

I could throw in some additional years, but there's a problem when you measure back beyond a few years.  Inflation, the structure of the industry changes (as in, movies overtime are slowly more and more frontloaded), the fact that there's more and more fan-oriented movies (meaning the people being measured by cinemascore are overtime becoming more and more skewed to show how fan's liked the movie and not necessarily the GA), etc.

 

It's a particularly flawed method that gets to much credit.

 

There is no better recent example of a fan-oriented movie resulting in a skewed Cinemascore than Power Rangers.  It had an "A" Cinemascore, and it is probably going to end up at $85 million at the domestic box office with a 2.125 multiplier.  Why?  Because the people most likely to show up on opening day to take those Cinemascore surveys, were already fans of the Power Rangers.  So, for movies that are much more likely to be frontloaded, Cinemascore may not work as well for predicting the box office run.

Edited April 25, 2017 by Outrageous!