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Chasmmi's Winter Game | In a big shock | Wrath & The old man (Tele) crash the party stealing the win from Jake Gittes.... DamienRoc crashed and burned.....

By chasmmi, in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game

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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

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TOP FIFTEEN UPDATE

  1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $528.8M
  2. Sing - $266.9M
  3. Moana - $244.9M
  4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $232.9M
  5. Doctor Strange - $232.4M
  6. Trolls - $153.3M
  7. Hidden Figures - $144.2M
  8. La La Land - $134.4M
  9. Split - $124.9M
  10. The LEGO Batman Movie - $107.1M
  11. Arrival - $100M
  12. Passengers - $98.6M
  13. Fifty Shades Darker - $92M
  14. Boo! A Madea Halloween - $73.2M
  15. Hacksaw Ridge - $66.8M

1-14 are looking pretty much set in stone, but John Wick 2 is probably going to overtake Hacksaw.

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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

Posted
Posted

 

 

E: And the Winner Is…:

 

1) MOANA
2) HIDDEN FIGURES
3) LA LA LAND
4) ARRIVAL
5) HACKSAW RIDGE

 

6) FENCES
7) MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
8) LION
9) MOONLIGHT
10) JACKIE

 

F: Assassin's Greed:

 

1) RUSSIA
2) FRANCE
3) GERMANY
4) BRAZIL
5) UK

6) MEXICO

 

Pre-season Questions:

 

A generous risk-free question to start you off: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game:

 

A: 100M - ARRIVAL (COULD PASSENGERS OVERTAKE IT?)

B: 200M - DOCTOR STRANGE

C: 300M - MOANA

D: 400M - ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

E: 500M - ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY

 

Each correctly predicted film scores you 15,000 points, get all five correct and receive 25,000 bonus points for 100k total. (This is the only preseason question where there is no penalty for being wrong so enjoy it).

 

1)   Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the winter domestically:

1) Dr. Strange
2) Fantastic Beasts 
3) Moana 
4) Assassin’s Creed

Answer correctly: 12,000 points

Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points

State that you abstain: 2,000 points

Correctly predict the films gross to within 20M and receive a 13,000 point bonus, Predict to within 10M and receive 23,000 points bonus.

 

 

2)   Tell me which of these will be the lowest grossing film of the winter domestically:

1) Rings
2) Ouija 2
3) Split
4) Resident Evil

Answer correctly: 12,000 points

Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points

State that you abstain: 2,000 points

Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 13,000 point bonus, Predict to within 5M and receive 23,000 points bonus

 

 

3)    Will at least 3 films make more than 250M domestically by the end of the game? NO

4)    Will animated films combine to make more than 700M domestically by the end of the game? YES

5)    Will at least 3 films make more than 80M OW domestic? NO - ONLY DR STRANGE AND ROGUE ONE

6)    Will any film with a title containing any of the words Christmas, Santa or Halloween make more than $75M domestic? NO

7)    Will at least 3 of the top 5 domestic films of the winter be non-sequels set in existing film universes (e.g Marvel, Potter and Star Wars)? NO - ONLY MOANA AND SING

8)    Will any film from the Ouija, Friday 13th, Ring, Underworld or Resident Evil franchise become the highest grossing film in its respective franchise? NO 

9)   Typically on Valentine’s Day (excluding 2016 thanks to Deadpool….) a Romance, Romantic Comedy or Drama has lead chart on Valentine’s Day. Will a Romance, Romantic Comedy or a Drama (as per BOM) be the #1 film on 14th February 2017 (Valentine’s Day)? YES - FIFTY SHADES DARKER

10) Will any film have an Opening weekend below $10M for have a final gross above $125M by the end of the game? YES - LA LA LAND 

11) Will the Great Wall make over $100M in China? YES

12) Will any film not owned by the greater Disney conglomerate make more than $800M Worldwide? YES - FANTASTIC BEASTS

13)Animated films have had a stellar year.  But can it continue… Will an animated film land (domestic gross) in the top 3 films for the game? YES - TWO IN FACT!

14)Will Paramount have 3 or more films in the Domestic top 15 list by the end of the game? NO - ONLY ARRIVAL

15)Will any film in the top 15 Domestic have a multiplier below 2.4? YES, PROVIDED FSD MISSES $112M BY SUNDAY.

16) Will Fifty Shades Darker’s drop from its predecessor be higher than Rogue One’s drop from Force Awakens? NO

17)Thor 2 opened on the same Weekend back in 2011 to 85m.  Will Dr. Strange’s opening weekend be larger than Thor (85.1m)? NO

18)Similar to Tangled, Moana faces a Potter Universe film in its second weekend amongst other competition.  Can Moana do what neither Tangled or for that matter, Frozen managed on opening weekend and open to the top spot over thanksgiving (3 day results)? YES

19) Will the same film finish top of both the domestic and Worldwide gross charts? YES

20) Will any film on the Worldwide top 10 list fail to make the domestic top 15? YES - XXX3                                         

21)Will at least 2 films in the top 15 win Oscars? POSSIBLY?

22)Will Universal have the second highest grossing animated movie domestically of the Winter Game? NO - IT WILL HAVE THE FIRST

23) Will XXX gross more domestically than Riddick ($42M)? YES

24) Will films starring the cast from Xmen Apocalypse combine to gross more than $275M domestic (Cameos not included)? YES (SPLIT + PASSENGERS + ASSASSINS CREED + OFFICE XMAS PARTY)

25) Will any of the top 5 grossing horror films have a second weekend drop below 52.5%? YES - RINGS

26)We don’t have a worldwide weekend chart this game, however, I thought it would be fun to have a question here.  Take the top 5 Domestic Weekends and top 5 international weekends (remember a film can only appear once on each list) and merge the charts into a single chart (this may mean we have a domestic weekend and international weekend for a movie which is ok).  Which Chart (Domestic or International Weekends) has more in the top 5 films of the combined chart? NEED TO CHECK THIS ONE

Answer correctly: 40,000 points
Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points
State that you abstain: 6,000 points

 

27)  Which combination of films will gross the most amount of money domestically during the game?

 

1)   Rogue One, Hacksaw Ridge, Dark Tower, Edge of Seventeen $609M

2)   Fantastic Beasts, Arrival, Why Him?, John Wick 2 $452M+

3)   Moana, Sing, Trolls. Rock Dog $664M+

4)   Dr. Strange, Asassin’s Creed, Inferno, Allied $360M+

 

28)Which combination of films will gross the least amount of money domestically during the game? - TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

1)   Boo! Madea Halloween, Almost Christmas, Office Christmas, Bad Santa 2 $188M  

2)   Ouija 2, Rings, Underworld, Bye Bye Man $110M

3)   Jack Reacher 2, Shut In, Space Between Us, The Lake $73M

4)   Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk, Lion, The Founder, Sleepless $71.6M

 

Answer correctly: 40,000 points

Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points

State that you abstain: 6,000 points

 

29)Which of the following release dates will have the highest combined 3 day weekend gross for new releases on that date? *

 

1)   November 25th (Wednesday releases only count the 3day totals still) $77.1M

2)   December 16th $162.2M

3)   December 23rd (Wednesday releases only count the 3day totals still) $71.5M

4)   February 10th $130M

 

Answer correctly: 40,000 points

Answer incorrectly: lose 30,000 points

State that you abstain: 5,000 points

 

 

30) Which of the following release dates will have the lowest combined 3 day weekend gross for new releases on that date? *

 

1)   October 28th

2)   December 2nd

3)   January 13th

4)   February 24th

 

Answer correctly: 40,000 points

Answer incorrectly: lose 30,000 points

State that you abstain: 5,000 points

 

 

And Finally… The Jajang Jajang something something questions:

 

1.    Rogue One’s Theatre Count (Opening Weekend) vs Fantastic Beasts Theatre Count (Opening Weekend)? ROGUE ONE
2.    Rogue One’s Opening Day vs Fantastic Beasts Opening Weekend? ROGUE ONE
3.    Rogue One’s Second Weekend vs Fantastic Beasts Opening Weekend? ROGUE ONE
4.    Rogue One’s Second Weekend Drop (%) vs Fantastic Beasts Second Weekend Drop (%)? FANTASTIC BEASTS


5.    Rogue One’s first 10 days Gross vs Fantastic Beasts Gross (Total for Game)? ROGUE ONE
6.    Fantastic Beasts highest International Weekend (excludes domestic) vs Rogue One highest International Weekend (excludes domestic)? NEED TO GET DATA
7.    Fantastic Beasts UK Total vs Rogue One’s UK Total? (in USD please) ROGUE ONE
8.    Fantastic Beasts Australian Total vs Rogue One’s Australian Total? (in USD please) ROGUE ONE


Simple Yes/No Answers:

9.    Will Rogue One’s opening weekend be the biggest of 2016? NO
10.    Will Rogue One make enough (Gross Total) to pass the 3rd biggest film Domestically of ALL TIME (unadjusted)? NO
11.    Will Rogue One be the biggest film of the Star Wars Universe that still has Anakin Skywalker alive in it? YES
12.    Will both Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts both make the top 10 films of 2016 (ALL 2016 films as per BOM)? NO #FANTASTICFLOPS


13.    Both the Rogue One Weekend and Fantastic Beasts Weekend have other films opening on the same weekend as these blockbusters.   Will the Rogue One Weekend have the highest opening weekend that isn’t Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts? YES - COLLATERAL BEAUTY
14.    Will Fantastic Beasts become the lowest opening weekend for a film in the Harry Potter Universe? YES #FANTASTICFLOPS
15.    Will Fantastic Beasts open amongst the top 8 films of 2016 (including all films to date and any remaining films in 2016)? NO #FANTASTICFLOPS
16.    Will Rogue One still be in the top 10 on the final weekend of the Game? NO


A few final questions to really test the thinking…..


17.    Which film (Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts) will hold onto the # 1 Daily Rank for the longest? ROGUE ONE
18.    In What position will Fantastic Beasts be in (in the Weekend Chart), the weekend Rogue One opens (you have a cushion of 1 position)? FIVE
19.    How many characters will appear in Rogue One that are considered to be main characters or were introduced in the main Franchise films (I will give you a cushion of 1 character)? TWO - LEIA AND VADER
20.    Which film (Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts) will have more # 1 films in various countries around the world (including Domestic) (this is as reported by BOM (Domestic and International))? NEED TO CHECK
        a.    As a bonus tell me how many countries have your selected film as number 1 (there is no cushion and if you get it wrong you don’t lose anything as it is a bonus). (also you must get Q20 correct to be able receive a score for part a.) NEED TO CHECK

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Plain Old Tele Cinematic Universe

Plain Old Tele

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7 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

Not a spoiler really, just my theory for Q19 of Jajang's question (characters in Rogue 1)

 

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I make it 5: Leia, Vader, C3PO, R2D2, Grand Muff Tarka or whatever he is called.   

 

Did I miss someone?

 

 

There's also Mon Mothma (the lady commanding the Rebel meetings) and Bail Organa (Leia's adopted father).

 

Depends on how you want to interpret "were introduced in the main franchise films", there's also Red Leader and Gold Leader, Dr. Evazan ("I've got the death sentence on twelve systems!"), and General Dodonna

 

 

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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17 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

There's also Mon Mothma (the lady commanding the Rebel meetings) and Bail Organa (Leia's adopted father).

 

Depends on how you want to interpret "were introduced in the main franchise films", there's also Red Leader and Gold Leader, Dr. Evazan ("I've got the death sentence on twelve systems!"), and General Dodonna

 

 

 

So enough that probably nobody came close to the real number and so its not really an issue? 

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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, chasmmi said:

 

So enough that probably nobody came close to the real number and so its not really an issue? 

 

Yeah. I remember going through it in late December and no one was even close.

 

Edit - Oh, and I agree with Tele on part E. We can't do more than begin to score that yet. I went through that as well a while back and the only things we know for sure are that  Moana is safe at #1 and Hidden Figures and La La Land are guaranteed to make the list *somewhere*. Everything else is entirely up for grabs. Iirc, like 5-6 different movies could come in #4 OR could miss the list entirely. 

 

Edit2 - Hidden Figures almost catching Trolls is pretty amazing.

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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4 hours ago, Wrath said:

 

Yeah. I remember going through it in late December and no one was even close.

 

Edit - Oh, and I agree with Tele on part E. We can't do more than begin to score that yet. I went through that as well a while back and the only things we know for sure are that  Moana is safe at #1 and Hidden Figures and La La Land are guaranteed to make the list *somewhere*. Everything else is entirely up for grabs. Iirc, like 5-6 different movies could come in #4 OR could miss the list entirely. 

 

Edit2 - Hidden Figures almost catching Trolls is pretty amazing.

 

Isn't La La Land the favourite for 1st place? Unless Moana or Hidden Figures wins an Oscar? Or Beasts for that matter...  

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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Posted
41 minutes ago, chasmmi said:

 

Isn't La La Land the favourite for 1st place? Unless Moana or Hidden Figures wins an Oscar? Or Beasts for that matter...  

 

Probably. LLL should get at least one of the key wins (Pic, Dir, Actress). HF seems an unlikely Pic or SupActress winner. Moana is probably not going to get Animated Feature. That would put the order as

 

1. LLL

2. Moana

3. HF

 

What happens from there depends a lot on whether Arrival is a non-starter or it manages an upset in any way. If it gets a win, it vaults ahead of HF. However, if it misses and Hacksaw gets something, Hacksaw is in 4th. If Arrival and Hacksaw miss, we'd probably see Fences in 4th, because Davis seems to be the foregone SupActress choice.

 

Actually, since the categories are pretty consistent (All 5 BD entries are BP choices, as are the 4 Actor entries, 1 of the 4 Actress (but even doubled, neither Jackie, Loving, or Elle would appear on the list), 3 of the 4 SupActor (and doubled Nocturnal Animals doesn't make the list), and all 5 SupActress noms. Moana is the only Best Animated Feature entry that's showing up, which means that the list of possible options is from the 8 eligible BP entries (HOHW was released too early), and Moana.

 

Current list of those with rough totals.

 

1. Moana 245m

2. HF 145m

3. LLL 135m

4. Arrival 100m

5. Hacksaw 67m

6. Fences 55m

7. Manchester 46m

 

8. Lion 37m

9. Moonlight 21m.

 

Actually, Moonlight can't get there, either. Even if Ali wins SupActor, it's less than Manchester, if that gets shut out.

 

So it's down to whether Lion can get a win or not to sneak into the list. If it does, it knocks... something out, unless Hacksaw, Fences, and Manchester all get wins as well. I don't think Lion is favored for any category, though.

 

If I was going to guess, I'd say the order will probably be:

1. LLL (Pic, Dir, Actress)

2. Moana (None)

3. HF (None)

4. Fences (SupActress)

5. Arrival (None)

6. Manchester (Actor)

7. Hacksaw (None)

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JJ-8 Blockbuster

JJ-8

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19 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

There's also Mon Mothma (the lady commanding the Rebel meetings) and Bail Organa (Leia's adopted father).

 

Depends on how you want to interpret "were introduced in the main franchise films", there's also Red Leader and Gold Leader, Dr. Evazan ("I've got the death sentence on twelve systems!"), and General Dodonna

 

 

 

My interpretation of the question... especially given i put this one in.. (I knew it would be a fun questions when i thought of it... Chas should really know to not let me near asking any questions :stirthepot::ph34r:)

 

Vadar

Leia

Tarkin

Bail Organa

Mon Montha

C3PO

R2D2

I intended it to include characters such as Red Leader etc... which means as everyone said it's well above the highest i've seen which is 6.  (even with the cushion..) 

 

so yep, everyone is getting this one wrong!  I guess there were more surprises / easter eggs than anyone expected in rogue one!

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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Oh and China is making a last ditch effort to screw with the top ten WW totals again. 

 

Resident Evil heading to a potential $90M OW. 

 

 

That is gonna make it so close between Great Wall, Assassin's Creed, and a few more for those last couple of spots. 

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chasmmi Summer Tentpole

chasmmi

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SOTM 11:

 

Hollywood/Movies: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=hollywoodmovies.htm  Will be 2nd

Musical: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=musical.htm    5th

Ryan Gosling movies by lifetime gross: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=ryangosling.htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm  1st

Emma Stone movies by lifetime gross: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=emmastone.htm&sort=gross&order=DESC&p=.htm  5th

 

For every chart where you call La La Land's rank exactly right, you win 14,000 points

If you miss by one spot, you win 7,000 points

If you miss by two spots, you win 0 points

If you miss by three spots, you lose 7,000 points

If you miss by four spots or more, you lose 15,000 points

 

Thatoneguy  56000

Jakegittes 56000

Blank 56000

Spaghetti  56000

WrathofHan  49000

Greyghost 49000

Darkelf 49000

Kayumanggi 49000

Dajk 49000

Tele 49000

cooleric 49000

Bcf 49000

Damienroc  49000

Exxdee  49000

Chasmmi 28000

Wrath 7000

JJ8 4000

Sakskidz  Minus 16000

 

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