What we lost in the fire, we found in the Derby. | Week 41

[AndyLL]

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

 

[JohnnY]

Ever since i changed my time zone I go to bed before we have theater counts (like right now, for example) and on the next day I have classes until after the deadline.

It will be hard for me to play this again.

[ChipDerby]

You do realize you can predict without theater counts, right?

[POTUS 2020]

14 hours ago, JohnnY said:

Ever since i changed my time zone I go to bed before we have theater counts (like right now, for example) and on the next day I have classes until after the deadline.

It will be hard for me to play this again.

Are you in europe?

I'm in Romania right now. I get my picks all set on Thursday.  I find theater counts affect just 1-3 picks each week and make a couple adjustments quickly before 10 am Friday (12 PDT deadline.)

[aabattery]

Every single guess of mine is a total crapshoot. Wildcard baby.

[JohnnY]

6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Are you in europe?

I'm in Romania right now. I get my picks all set on Thursday.  I find theater counts affect just 1-3 picks each week and make a couple adjustments quickly before 10 am Friday (12 PDT deadline.)

 

Japan.

 

Yeah, maybe I could just do the predictions without theater counts, then on the next morning I check which ones are getting huge theater drops and make some adjustments.

I'll try this next week, it's just that I'm so used to waiting for theater numbers.

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, JohnnY said:

 

Japan.

 

Yeah, maybe I could just do the predictions without theater counts, then on the next morning I check which ones are getting huge theater drops and make some adjustments.

I'll try this next week, it's just that I'm so used to waiting for theater numbers.

So you have til 4pm Friday.  I was in India and Thailand for a few months.  So I adjusted  my picks for theater counts on Friday there  as well. A lot weeks we have 3 new releases plus 3 from last week with no TC change. Then a couple like Sully or don't Breathe in their 3rd or fourth week don't lose much because they are holding well. I just look out  for that one derby killer like the wild life or FSoJ.  I had the wild life dropping 70% to 800k after an 18% hold due to TC and still scored 0 like most everyone else though.

[JMorphin]

This weekend can be especially challenging due to the effect of Hurricane Matthew.  Even Mojo is mentioning it in their forecast.

[POTUS 2020]

Derby Sheet 41 players

Check your picks against other players

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d5Vhv56QFIKHj2kpLj7X6eYwT3lA7E1EgUkzEZaRJ9g/edit?usp=sharing

 

Welcome @a2knet and @Spectre. You are competing against a few new player from the last 2 weeks for a gold account. Standings are updated here as estimates are released.

 

 

Edited October 7, 2016 by No Prisoners

[ChipDerby]

I'm an idiot. I forgot to predict AGAIN.

[Viceversa]

On 10/6/2016 at 7:05 AM, AABATTERY said:

Every single guess of mine is a total crapshoot. Wildcard baby.

[POTUS 2020]

On Thursday, October 06, 2016 at 2:05 PM, AABATTERY said:

Every single guess of mine is a total crapshoot. Wildcard baby.

Craps it is! Same shooter comin' out, place your bets! Top 5 again nice. Let's go to a casino and roll dem bones.

 

Deadline early estimates.  As usual they will be off and a shift in the standings will occur. 

@8wombi7 trying to repeat

@TalismanRing getting hot again 

@Baumer liked Blair Witch and @Nutella of Arabia are back and in the middle of the pack.

Oct new players @Jason and @Daniel Dylan Davis appearing in the top ten and battling for a gold account with @Spectre not far behind. A shift in the numbers could bring @a2knet into the mix.

Collectively we continue to do well with the Derby average at 92.37

 

 

1    8wombi7    93.14
2    TalismanRing    93.04
3    Derby Average    92.37
4    No Prisoners    92
5    Exxdee    91.95
6    AABATTERY    91.48
7    Bates    91.44
8    boxofficeth    91.42
9    Daniel Dylan Davis    91.29
10    Jason    91.01
11    darkelf    90.52
12    Spectre    90.51
13    Horror Wizard    90.28
14    moviecriticguy    90.05
15    Matrix4You    89.97
16    Nutella of Arabia    89.9
17    CJohn    89.64
18    PanaMovie    89.52
19    ShinyDave    88.93
20    Boxx93    88.91
21    a2knet    88.8
22    kayumanggi    88.14
23    Viceversa    87.91
24    Baumer liked Blair Witch    87.9
25    Tower    87.71
26    CoolEric258    87.68
27    WrathOfHan    87.41
28    luxneji    87.38
29    chasmmi    87.16
30    Rolling Thunder    86.99
31    Arlborn    86.77
33    Padre    86.35
34    Simionski    85.72
35    Blankments    85.21
36    Wonka    85
37    JMorphin    84
38    Wildbill    83.79
39    AndyLL    83.31
40    nelmsey    82.22
41    dnr 3301    79.07
42    Lights Camera Action    74.84
43    RandomJC    69.68

Edited October 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[aabattery]

50 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Craps it is! Same shooter comin' out, place your bets! Top 5 again nice. Let's go to a casino and roll dem bones.

 

If only it always worked this well. Then I might've had an actual chance at the tournaments.

Spoiler

 

Look at this beautiful consistency. Someone should hire me.

 

[a2k]

I fell like a royal f'up

[POTUS 2020]

I went from 3rd to 18th. Deadline Friday midnight report is useless. This is from BO.com projections. This too will be off a bit. Could be the first win for the average. 

 

1    Derby Average    93.09
2    Matrix4You    92.85
3    Nutella of Arabia    92.16
4    Viceversa    92.1
5    8wombi7    92.09
6    TalismanRing    92.08
7    CoolEric258    91.73
8    CJohn    91.64
9    Jason    91.44
10    Arlborn    91.29
11    boxofficeth    91.28
12    Baumer liked Blair Witch    91.24
13    AABATTERY    91.21
14    Bates    90.87
15    a2knet    90.68
16    PanaMovie    90.31
17    Horror Wizard    90.19
18    No Prisoners    89.6
19    kayumanggi    89.45
20    Boxx93    89.43
21    Spectre    89.13
22    ShinyDave    88.4
23    darkelf    88.39
24    moviecriticguy    88.03
25    WrathOfHan    87.33
26    Daniel Dylan Davis    87.11
27    Exxdee    86.67
28    chasmmi    86.19
29    Rolling Thunder    86.09
30    Simionski    85.4
31    nelmsey    84.96
33    luxneji    84.74
34    Wonka    84.44
35    Wildbill    83.81
36    Blankments    82.99
37    Tower    82.61
38    Padre    82.54
39    dnr 3301    82.02
40    JMorphin    81.32
41    AndyLL    81.24
42    Lights Camera Action    78.92
43    RandomJC    68.71

Edited October 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[aabattery]

4 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

I went from 3rd to 18th. Deadline Friday midnight report is useless. This is from BO.com projections. This too will be off a bit. Could br me the first win for the average. 

 

[a2k]

Deadline's reporting 24.7 for Girl on Train (I am not sad considering my derby says 25.2. Gonna loose big on Mag7 and Birth of Nation though)

Edited October 9, 2016 by a2knet

[TalismanRing]

Rankings with W/E Estimates

 

Derby Average    91.61

 

1. 8wombi7    92.61
2. Matrix4You    92.31
3. TalismanRing    92.21
4. CJohn    91.88
5. PanaMovie    91.08
6. Viceversa    90.76
7. a2knet    90.58
8. Bates    90.56
9. Horror Wizard    90.45
10. boxofficeth    90.42
11. Baumer liked Blair Witch    90.33
12. Nutella of Arabia    90.2
13. AABATTERY    90.2
14. CoolEric258    90.2
15. Jason    89.86
16. No Prisoners    89.35
17. Spectre    88.88
18. ShinyDave    88.74
19. Arlborn    88.55
20. Boxx93    88.31
21. kayumanggi    88.11
22. Exxdee    87.25
23. Daniel Dylan Davis    87.13
24. darkelf    86.39
25. moviecriticguy    86.33
26. WrathOfHan    85.77
27. Simionski    85.63
28. chasmmi    84.39
29. Rolling Thunder    84.07
30. Wildbill    84.05
31. Wonka    83.59
32. nelmsey    83.5
33. luxneji    83.26
34. Blankments    83
35. Padre    82.62
36. JMorphin    81.62
37. Tower    80.49
38. dnr 3301    79.63
39. AndyLL    79.4
40. Lights Camera Action    76.35
41. RandomJC    68.03

Edited October 9, 2016 by TalismanRing

[POTUS 2020]

Another big shift in the standings with @8wombi7 back on top trying to repeat. 

@a2knet in the lead for the newb gold.

1    8wombi7    92.44
2    Matrix4You    92.2
3    TalismanRing    92.1
4    CJohn    91.88
5    Derby Average    91.39
6    PanaMovie    90.87
7    Viceversa    90.85
8    a2knet    90.48
9    Bates    90.34
10    Baumer liked Blair Witch    90.33
11    Horror Wizard    90.24
12    boxofficeth    90.2
13    CoolEric258    90.18
14    Nutella of Arabia    90.06
15    AABATTERY    90.06
16    Jason    89.63
17    No Prisoners    89.13
18    Spectre    88.74
19    ShinyDave    88.72
20    Arlborn    88.51
21    Boxx93    88.17
22    kayumanggi    88.1
23    Exxdee    87.21
24    Daniel Dylan Davis    87.11
25    darkelf    86.17
26    moviecriticguy    86.1
27    Simionski    85.58
28    WrathOfHan    85.55
29    chasmmi    84.25
30    Wildbill    84
31    Rolling Thunder    83.85
33    nelmsey    83.47
34    Wonka    83.39
35    luxneji    83.03
36    Blankments    82.96
37    Padre    82.43
38    JMorphin    81.46
39    Tower    80.28
40    dnr 3301    79.52
41    AndyLL    79.2
42    Lights Camera Action    76.32
43    RandomJC    67.91

[Rolling Thunder]

Striving for more consistency as I prep for the 2017 season.  Very much a Home Run or bust kinda guy right now, but at least when I'm on, it's electric.