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Plain Old Tele

ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Plain Old Tele, in Numbers and Data

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Highever Straight-to-DVD

Highever

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Posted (edited)

I figure I may as well give my prediction before the movie comes out. 

 

I just have a hard time believing the thought line that TFA will be less pre-sales driven than Rogue One. TFA's uniqueness, I believe, generated unprecedented hype which manifested itself in unprecedented pre-sales. Pre-sales were likely so astronomically high because TFA was getting the general audience to buy in advance. If one posits the same pre-sales to domestic gross multiplier reached by TFA, then Rogue One is probably still the domestic box office champ for the year. 

 

Now, I also don't think TFA's multiple was exceptionally unusual compared to something like Civil War, which may bode well for Rogue One. My claim, in its simplest form is that I am baffled that Rogue One's pre-sales can be interpreted as anything but a huge positive. 

 

As for a weekend to final multiplier, I see no real need to deviate from the typical holiday release. Reasons to suppose it will deviate are largely based upon the claims that the pre-sales represent an unusually large portion of demand, reasons I believe are wholly incapable of being substantiated at this point. 

 

I suspect the industry is lowballing the opening weekend total due to uncertainty, but I also don't want to assume too much variance. So, I will predict an opening weekend of $155m, with a typical multiplier of 3.3. 

 

Final guess of $155m, $512m. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Highever
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