That One Guy's "Controversial" 2017 Box Office Predictions Extravaganza Extended Cut (on Blu-Ray and digital today!) | BONUS CONTENT: CJOHN'S CONTROVERSIAL 2017 PREDICTIONS | William Hurt returns as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross

[That One Girl]

The Founder - If Weinstein had still been able to successfully open adult targeted movies like they could about 5 years ago, this would be much higher for me.  Alas, they really can't anymore.  Keaton isn't a draw, and while the story is intriguing and it has good reviews, will people even be aware it's coming out?  Judging by how Weinstein usually rolls, probably not.  6/18 (3x)

 

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone -   1.5/3 (2x)

 

Split - McAvoy going for that Best Actress nomination.  Seriously though, this has all the ingredients to be a breakout success.  It's from Shyamalan, who was able to open The Visit to 25M (IIRC) last fall despite mixed/slightly positive reviews.  This one, however, has been receiving great reviews.  It reminds me of how Don't Breathe exploded with critics months before release before opening in the 20s and ending near the 90s.  I expect a higher opening since Bye Bye Man will have flopped a week prior, and similar legs.  40/130 (3.25x)

 

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - Despite it being an unnecessary sequel, it actually has somehow managed to gain quite a large bit of traction online.  It racked up 100M trailer views in 2 days (I know that since Deadline has had it on their trendings tab for God knows how long), and Vin Diesel...well...MIGHT be a draw.  I don't expect anything massive, but nothing in flop territory either.  Definitely above the second movie.  25/55 (2.2x)

[franfar]

 

[FlashMaster659]

2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 The Bye Bye Man - I'm gonna be quoting NSYNC a lot during this prediction...(just kidding but you get my point).  So anyways, the one and only thing this movie has going for it is...well...it's a horror movie in January and it could potentially breakout?  Given the terrible reception to the trailer...yeah no.  No one gives a shit about this movie.  It'll die at the box office, and have toxic WoM with it.  Expecting anything big is setting yourself up for disappointment.  Bye bye.  5/10 (2x)

 

Monster Trucks - I'm going to try to refrain from letting my religious beliefs interfere with my prediction.  Hmm, well how about we check what the movie has going for it.  It could pull in a new family audience over MLK day weekend, the same way The Nut Job did (which ended with 64M).  It could appeal to some fans out there who might like Lucas Till and Jane Levy.  There seems to be some people online who genuinely want to see this...hmm...AGH I HATE THIS WHY DOES THIS MOVIE HAVE TO FLOP WHILE TRASH MAKES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS  900/4B (4.44x) 15/38 (2.53x)

 

Sleepless - Faces direct competition in the adult crowd this weekend alone from Silence, Patriots Day, and Live by Night.  Some people might come for Jamie Foxx, but I wouldn't count on it.  Don't expect much.  6/15 (2.5x)

 

Live by Night - The toxic reviews didn't immediately turn me off from this becoming a box office success, and it still hasn't.  Affleck has shown that he can successfully lead a poorly reviewed movie to great numbers (in fact, it was this year with The Accountant).  While I think Live by Night won't reach Accountant numbers due to way too much fierce competition, it should still be a relatively solid hit.  20/60 (3x)

 

Patriots Day - Deepwater Horizon was able to reach 60M earlier this year, with less Oscar buzz and being a Berg/Wahlberg production.  Patriots Day, however, is gaining a considerable amount of traction, and with Live by Night getting poor reviews and Silence looking to be too mainstream-unfriendly, this could be a bit of a breakout amongst people looking for a compelling drama.  Lone Survivor has previously done great numbers in this same release windows, and this could do the same if marketing begins to ramp up in this next week.  On top of all this, aside from Wahlberg in the cast, it also has J.K. Simmons, John Goodman, Kevin Bacon, and Michelle Monaghan.  Fuck it, this movie is screaming breakout to me.  Let's go a bit risky on this, shall we?  30/120 (4x)

 

Silence - Scorsese directing 2/12-3 hour long movies has been done before, but they really stick when they have one particular widely appealing star.  The Departed, The Aviator, and Wolf of Wall Street all had Leo.  It's no secret that he's the driving force behind most recent Scorsese movies success.  However, this one doesn't have that.  It has Neeson, Garfield, and Driver, but that's certainly not enough, especially when none of them are guaranteed draws.  I think the GA might initially reject the movie, but it should have good WoM from Oscar season and have a very solid final sum.  10/50 (5x)

[That One Girl]

Bastards - According to HSX this movie was pulled from the schedule .  If that is true, not really surprised.  It's received next-to-no marketing whatsoever.  So yeah, if this by some miracles gets released, expect complete floppage.  2/4 (2x)

 

A Dog's Purpose - Here's a movie that screams breakout!  It'll have two weeks since the last family oriented movie in Monster Trucks, although it may have a bit of a hard time recovering from the groundbreaking 900M OW that it'll have ().  In all seriousness, it'll have been a month since Sing passed, and it has two weeks to breathe until Lego Batman.  Not to mention, the trailer seems to have resonated well with people, and it's been advertised the shit out of on YouTube (at least for me).  I think it's gonna have fantastic WoM.  15/90 (6x)

 

Gold - Is this movie even getting a release?  I'm still trying to figure that out.  Whatever happens though, while the movie looks intriguing, I don't see many people eating this up.  Patriots Day and quite possibly Silence should still be doing just fine when it comes to adult targeted pictures, and maybe Live by Night too if it holds on.  The Founder will also be released a week before.  Yeah, there's not much room here for much of a breakout.  Maybe next time, Weinstein...if there is a next time.  3/7 (2.33x)

 

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - I swear to God, they better not pull another Friday the 13th here.  Again, this reminds me of underworld: Too long of a wait between some sexy actress in spandex for 90 minutes.  Most Resident Evil movies had a 2 or 3 year long gap.  This, again, is 5.  However, unlike underworld, this has a much smaller "low end," with the low end being 46M.  Maybe the Resident Evil 7 game will help increase its numbers?  Still not seeing a breakout.  Like, at all.  Expect another fan driven opening weekend and harsh legs.  16/35 (2.18x)

[Eevin]

4 hours ago, CJohn said:

This edition includes as a special bonus the

CJOHN CONTROVERSIAL PREDICTIONS:

 

JANUARY

Hidden Figures - 32/137

Underworld: Blood Wars - 17/40

A Monster Calls - 1.7/3.7

 

Monster Trucks - 3.5/5/10

The Bye Bye Man - 6/7.5/14

Sleepless - 6/7.5/15

Live by Night - 20/24/60

Patriot's Day - 25/29/91

 

The Founder - 4/10

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone - 2/4.5

Split - 30/85

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage - 20/45

 

Gold - 3.5/8.5

A Dog's Purpose - 9/27

Bastards - 6/14

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - 20/40

That Hidden Figures prediction

 

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, Eevin said:

That Hidden Figures prediction

 

Cookie Monster is coming to clean up with her broom and @CJohn knows it.

 

 

[That One Girl]

Rings - While the trailer has managed some decent views, the reactions to it are overwhelmingly negative.  Split is coming out two weeks prior, and if my prediction comes true, then that should still be going rather strong.  I feel like Paramount just doesn't care anymore about the movie.  Reviews have a high chance of being terrible.  I expect a mediocre opening and shitty legs.  8/16 (2x)

 

The Space Between us - The movie was already pushed back way too many times for comfort.  Granted, this release slot is better than going face to face with Passengers and Rogue One, but next week it faces competition from movies that should eat up most demographics (Fifty Shades, John Wick, and of course, Lego Batman).  While Space Between us seems to be mostly teen-targeted, I imagine that crowd, in addition to Lego Batman being a potential offering next week, could also choose to see Rings over this.  So yeah. don't expect much here.  8/20 (2.5x)

[CJohn]

THE LEGENDARY CJOHN CONTROVERSIAL 2017 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS CONTINUE WITH FEBRUARY

 

Rings - 15/35

The Space Between Us - 5/13

 

Fifty Shades Darker - 53/110

John Wick: Chapter Two - 22/61

The LEGO Batman Movie - 103/365

 

A Cure For Wellness - 5/6/11

Fist Fight - 30/35/100

The Great Wall - 22/26/54

 

Get Out - 20/55

Rock Dog - 7/19

[WrathOfHan]

36 minutes ago, CJohn said:

THE LEGENDARY CJOHN CONTROVERSIAL 2017 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS CONTINUE WITH FEBRUARY

 

Rings - 15/35

The Space Between Us - 5/13

 

Fifty Shades Darker - 53/110

John Wick: Chapter Two - 22/61

The LEGO Batman Movie - 103/365

 

A Cure For Wellness - 5/6/11

Fist Fight - 30/35/100

The Great Wall - 22/26/54

 

Get Out - 20/55

Rock Dog - 7/19

Want to resurrect that Rings bet?

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Want to resurrect that Rings bet?

I don't even remember what bet it was.

[WrathOfHan]

48 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't even remember what bet it was.

49) Rings O/U 10 m OW (bet 50 points) (canceled if theater count under 2500)

(WrathOfHan over) (CJohn under)

 

 

On 9/23/2016 at 0:09 PM, WrathOfHan said:

In other words, you realized I was correct  

 

On 9/23/2016 at 0:15 PM, CJohn said:

In February? With no Halloween bump? Yeah, you probably are. But if it was for February I wouldn't have accepted the bet.

 

 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

49) Rings O/U 10 m OW (bet 50 points) (canceled if theater count under 2500)

(WrathOfHan over) (CJohn under)

 

 

 

 

 

Unsure right now, closer to the release date I will tell you.

[Outrageous!]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

THE LEGENDARY CJOHN CONTROVERSIAL 2017 BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS CONTINUE WITH FEBRUARY

 

Fifty Shades Darker - 53/110

John Wick: Chapter Two - 22/61

The LEGO Batman Movie - 103/365

 

That's quite a bold prediction for Lego Batman, and while difficult, I don't see it as impossible either.  However, I feel your January and February predictions are just a warm up act for the real entertainment: CJohn's March 2017 predictions, and one in particular I'm looking forward to seeing for March 24.

[That One Girl]

Fifty Shades Darker - Well, I mean the sequel was at least justified?  More than I can say for most sequels being released nowadays.  Anyway, Fifty Shades Darker is definitely racking up the views on YouTube, although that is mainly fanbase driven/curiosity.  I think it'll, again, have completely shit legs.  A good opening will happen, but a sub-2x multi wouldn't surprise me.  50/95 (1.9x)

 

John Wick: Chapter Two - This is one of the tougher ones to predict.  The hype is definitely there and the original John Wick did gain a lot of traction on home video, but the first didn't make that much theatrically.  I think it'll increase due to its increased audience and the general positive reception of the first one.  Legs will depend entirely on how good it is, which is a good bet at the moment that it'll at least have some quality with it.  20/55 (2.75x)

 

The Lego Batman Movie - Now here we go with the first true breakout of 2017!  This has everything right going for it.  Batman is a huge character, Lego Movie was a huge movie, Batman was one of the most well liked aspects of that movie, WB's marketing team, etc. etc. etc.  If it's well received (which I fully expect it to be), then a total around 400M wouldn't be surprising in the slightest.  Not to mention, it has more than a month to survive until Beauty and the Beast comes out.  After that, the late legs should still be going strong.  110/415 (3.77x)

[CJohn]

My legendary predictions continue. March time:

 

Logan - 82/211

The Shack - 6/15

 

Kong: Skulls Island - 65/180

 

Beauty and the Beast - 175/602

 

CHiPs - 14/41

Life - 22/60

Power Rangers - 20/50

 

Ghost in the Shell - 30/85

The Boss Baby - 35/115

 

[That One Girl]

27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

My legendary predictions continue. March time:

 

Logan - 82/211

The Shack - 6/15

 

Kong: Skulls Island - 65/180

 

Beauty and the Beast - 175/602

 

CHiPs - 14/41

Life - 22/60

Power Rangers - 20/50

 

Ghost in the Shell - 30/85

The Boss Baby - 35/115

 

 

STOP GOING AHEAD OF ME RAAAAAAAA

[Eric Atreides]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 

STOP GOING AHEAD OF ME RAAAAAAAA

 

Step your game up then.

[Jay Beezy]

4 hours ago, That One Guy said:

John Wick: Chapter Two - This is one of the tougher ones to predict.  The hype is definitely there and the original John Wick did gain a lot of traction on home video, but the first didn't make that much theatrically.  I think it'll increase due to its increased audience and the general positive reception of the first one.  Legs will depend entirely on how good it is, which is a good bet at the moment that it'll at least have some quality with it.  20/55 (2.75x)

 

Just some food for thought, a big reason why the first didn't make much theatrically is because Lionsgate only just put out a trailer one month before release. John Wick 2 got the ball rolling earlier.

[franfar]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

STOP GOING AHEAD OF ME RAAAAAAAA

Git gud

[That One Girl]

A Cure for Wellness - Gore Verbinski is back, and better (?) than ever!  Now that he's back making horror like he did with The Ring (which was massive), we could quite possibly see a breakout here.  I don't think it'll come as close to The Ring at all (mainly cause it's rated R and has a weird as fuck trailer that could be off putting to the GA), but if it gets good reviews as I'm expecting, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out a decent hit for Fox.  20/60 (3x)

 

Fist Fight - Ice Cube and Charlie Day, while both aren't the biggest stars, both have their fans that will show up for the movie they're in.  Not to mention, the film has a widely appealing premise that college age students might like.  However, one major hindrance is its R-rating.  While this normally wouldn't be an issue, this seems like the type of comedy to attract a bit of a younger audience.  Still, I think it should do fine enough.  Nothing spectacular, though.  25/60 (2.4x)

 

The Great Wall - lol flop.  Matt Damon won't even save this incoming trainwreck.  10/20 (2x)

 

Patient Zero - There's like a 1% chance this actually gets released in this spot, but...I guess I'm forced to predict it?  Well, if it does somehow get released, expect complete floppage, especially with direct competition from Cure for Wellness.  1.5/3 (2x)