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m3racer123

Transformers: The Last Knight under $150-175m DOM Club (merged the two clubs)

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m3racer123    394

screenshot-589-png.png?w=650

 

Summer 2016 saw some colossal sequel drops from previous films that were disliked by audiences.

Ice Age 5 dropped 60% from the previous film's $161m DOM total.

Alice 2 dropped 77% from the previous film's $334m DOM total.

Ninja Turtles 2 dropped 57% from the previous film's $191m DOM total.

 

I think there could be a repeat of this for some films next summer, one of which being Transformers. Regardless of how good TF5 is, it will drop because TF4 is widely regarded as the worst of the franchise, with by far the worst legs (2.45x). This franchise has been dropping like a rock in North America, and I don't see that stopping. My club only requires a 39% drop which is much less than many of 2016's sequel disasters.

 

So, who's in?

IN:

WrathOfHan

 

OUT:

YourMother

Arlborn

Eevin

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JonathanLB    1,320

Out. I don't agree with the premise either. Transformers 2 was by far the worst of the series and I enjoy this series as a guilty pleasure. That despite the movie being a huge hit. I would say Age of Extinction is seen as the second lowest of the four but it was fun enough. I just think the franchise was due for some course correction or fatigue.

 

The trailer for this one doesn't look good though. Some 12-year-old girl saying she wants to stay and fight?! Hahahaha ok. Also she says it like "honastay and fight" instead of "I WANT to stay and fight," which after seeing this trailer 12 times is increasingly bothersome.

 

I think an OW of $80M still happens with some meh legs to $200M. But it seems destined for a mediocre blockbuster gross no matter how you figure it so I like the balls of this club :P

 

Even though I can't root against Transformers since I drive a Transformers Edition Camaro 2SS, I can't deny the fact this franchise is looking washed up.

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Kalo    7,291

It's possible, but Transformers + Micheal Bay seems to have a built audience. I'm sure it will have a decent drop though, I'm thinking $180-$200m for now. so Out.

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drdungbeetle    190

A time has come, a new age is upon us! An age in which all Paramount movies will flop! Transformers 5 will bomb because people are sick of Michael Bay and twirl and hurl cam and spikey bots! This movie will get 25% on RT and nobody wants to pay 15 bucks for that crap anymore! JOIN THE TRANSFORMERS UNDER 175 MIL US CLUB, YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED!

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drdungbeetle    190
2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Under $150M would be bolder.

Not falling for it this time. Under 175 mil would be a huge drop from Age of Extinction already. (Mummy got the bolder club because under 100 mil already existed).

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Barnack    2,214

175m sound like a good number for a club

 

1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $466,243,000 $402,111,870 6/24/09
2 Transformers P/DW $401,377,800 $319,246,193 7/3/07
3 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $382,856,700 $352,390,543 6/29/11
4 Transformers: Age of Extinction Par. $262,749,200 $245,439,076 6/27/14

 

Drop between (unadjusted / adjusted)

2 to 3: 12.5%/18%

3 to 4: 30/32%

 

If the drop between 4 to 5 is similar to 3 to 4, that would put the 5th at 171.5 domestic.

If the drop between 4 to 5 is similar to 2 to 43 that would put the 5th around 208.25 domestic.

 

I feel like a similar drop to 3-4 will happen, and do just a little bit below 175, IN. Should be really close, 190m was my first guess.

Edited by Barnack
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drdungbeetle    190
Just now, Barnack said:

175m sound like a good number for a club

 

1 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $466,243,000 $402,111,870 6/24/09
2 Transformers P/DW $401,377,800 $319,246,193 7/3/07
3 Transformers: Dark of the Moon P/DW $382,856,700 $352,390,543 6/29/11
4 Transformers: Age of Extinction Par. $262,749,200 $245,439,076 6/27/14

 

Drop between (unadjusted / adjusted)

2 to 3: 12.5%/18%

3 to 4: 30/32%

 

If the drop between 4 to 5 is similar to 3 to 4, that would put the 5th at 171.5 domestic.

If the drop between 4 to 5 is similar to 2 to 43 that would put the 5th around 208.25 domestic.

 

I feel like it will do a in between those drop ( a 22% on), for a 190 million domestic performance. OUT

This is a pretty good mathematical analysis. I'm feeling like the drop will be higher because this movie seems to have zero buzz, like less than #4 had, and the Fast 8 drop from Fast 7 was pretty steep, so there's precedent for a big sequel drop this year. I personally think somewhere in the 160-170 mil range overall. It'll be close, but I think the fall will be brutal.

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John Marston    14,318
7 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

This is a pretty good mathematical analysis. I'm feeling like the drop will be higher because this movie seems to have zero buzz, like less than #4 had, and the Fast 8 drop from Fast 7 was pretty steep, so there's precedent for a big sequel drop this year. I personally think somewhere in the 160-170 mil range overall. It'll be close, but I think the fall will be brutal.

 

 

actually 5 seems to have more buzz online than 4. 4 had shit trailer views and not much online presence yet still managed to outgross most of the films that summer

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