2017 100M Films - 33 down, 3 to go! (Pitchslapped!)

[Jay Beezy]

54 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Most in a full year. 2013 has more than either of those. Even if Passengers is fudged to 100M, 2016 will still have less.

 

2017 has the biggest chance of breaking the record in a long time, though.

 

We were talking about most in first four months.

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

We were talking about most in first four months.

 

In correlation w/the record of most 100M in a full year. Some folks were making the point that 2013 had less 100M movies in the 1st four movies than year A, and that would raise the question of wheater or not year A was the actual 100M in a full year record holder, to which, that's a no.

[mahnamahna]

On ‎3‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 7:31 AM, stripe said:

We can be sure Power Rangers will also join the club. 8 movies.

It's possible that Boss Baby or Ghost in the Shell cross the mark.

Add Fast 8.

 

10 movies over 100M in the first 4 months. Current record holder 2013 began the year with just 4 movies over 100M.

Possible top 10 for Jan-April

Spoiler

1. Beauty & the Beast: $520 million
2. The Fate of the Furious: $265 million
3. Logan: $220 million
4. The LEGO Batman Movie: $180 million
5. Get Out: $175 million
6. Kong - Skull Island: $160 million
7. Split: $135 million
8. Fifty Shades Darker: $115 million
9. Power Rangers: $105 million
10. The Boss Baby: $100 million

 

May-August realistically have 16 contenders, perhaps with this as a lineup

Spoiler

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $430 million
2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $345 million
3. Despicable Me 3: $310 million
4. Wonder Woman: $250 million
5. Dunkirk: $235 million
6. Cars 3: $215 million
7. War for the Planet of the Apes: $190 million
8. Transformers - The Last Knight: $170 million
9. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $155 million
10. Alien - Covenant: $145 million
11. Baywatch: $140 million
12. The Mummy: $135 million
13. The Dark Tower: $115 million
14. Snatched: $110 million
15. Girls Trip: $105 million
16. The Emoji Movie: $100 million

Sept-Dec is the trickiest period IMO, but I could see this as a lineup

Spoiler

1. Star Wars - The Last Jedi: $710 million
2. Justice League: $360 million
3. Coco: $305 million
4. Thor - Ragnorak: $220 million
5. Blade Runner 2049: $165 million
6. The Star: $140 million
7. Murder on the Orient Express: $130 million
8. Pitch Perfect 3: $125 million
9. Ninjago: $120 million
10. The Greatest Showman on Earth: $115 million
11. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle: $110 million
12. Untitled Cloverfield Movie: $105 million
13. Red Sparrow: $100 million
14. Daddy's Home 2: $100 million
15. It: $100 million

 

[zackzack]

By the end of next weekend we will have 2 new $100M grossers.

Looks like Power Rangers may not make it to the club...

[stripe]

I didn't expect such drops for Power Rangers. Its chances to reach the mark are almost zero. Boss Baby proves that we usually underestimate DW animation.

 

In the end, nine movies in 4 months over 100M, and another two films missing the mark by a few millions.

 

[zackzack]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

I didn't expect such drops for Power Rangers. Its chances to reach the mark are almost zero. Boss Baby proves that we usually underestimate DW animation.

 

In the end, nine movies in 4 months over 100M, and another two films missing the mark by a few millions.

 

 

Dreamworks still got it. Remember Home returned $177M and The Croods surprised with $187M

[zackzack]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

I didn't expect such drops for Power Rangers. Its chances to reach the mark are almost zero. Boss Baby proves that we usually underestimate DW animation.

 

In the end, nine movies in 4 months over 100M, and another two films missing the mark by a few millions.

 

 

I wish John Wick 2 could get there. Lionsgate actually could do less drastic theatre drops but they seem too eager for immediate Home Video business.

 

[zackzack]

The rest of April seems empty until Guardians 2. So Beauty, Boss & Furious 8 could

duke it out for audience pockets 

[stripe]

14 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

Dreamworks still got it. Remember Home returned $177M and The Croods surprised with $187M

 

The only DWA movies to gross under 100M are Turbo and Penguins of Madagascar. And in between the opening of these movies, there were other two movies that did just fine (Peabody, Dragon2).  After Penguins we have seen 4 consecutive movies grossing 177M, 143M, 153M and probably 145M for Boss Baby. All these four movies have been consistently underpredicted here, expecting sub 100M DOM for Home, Trolls and Boss Baby.

The next opening is Captain Underpants and once again I am seeing a lot of under 100M predictions.

 

[Krissykins]

IMO, we're 100% locked to have 27 $100m grossers:

The Fate of the Furious
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Alien: Covenant
Pirates of the Caribbean
Baywatch
Wonder Woman
Cars 3
Transformers
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man Homecoming
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
The Emoji Movie
Kingsman
Thor Ragnarok
Justice League
Coco
Star Wars
Pitch Perfect 3

 

 

Plus.... Ferdinand, Downsizing, Jumanji, Greatest Showman, A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddys Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, Blade Runner, IT, Atomic Blonde, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, Rough Night, The House and Snatched could all do it, too.

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

IMO, we're 100% locked to have 27 $100m grossers:

The Fate of the Furious
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Alien: Covenant
Pirates of the Caribbean
Baywatch
Wonder Woman
Cars 3
Transformers
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man Homecoming
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
The Emoji Movie
Kingsman
Thor Ragnarok
Justice League
Coco
Star Wars
Pitch Perfect 3

 

 

Plus.... Ferdinand, Downsizing, Jumanji, Greatest Showman, A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddys Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, Blade Runner, IT, Atomic Blonde, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, Rough Night, The House and Snatched could all do it, too.

Baywatch and Emoji aren't locks.

[zackzack]

1. Beauty and the Beast
2. Logan
3. Get Out
4. Kong Skull Island
5. Lego Batman
6. Split
7. 50 Shades Darker
8. Boss Baby
9. The Fate of the Furious
10. Guardians of Galaxy 2
11. Alien Covenant
12. Baywatch
13. Pirates 5
14. Captain Underpants
15. Wonder Woman
16. The Mummy
17. Cars 3
18. Transformers 5
19. Despicable Me 3
20. Spiderman Homecoming
21. War for Planet of the Apes
22. Dunkirk
23. IT
24. Ninjago
25. Kingsman 2
26. Thor Ragnarok
27. Justice League
28. Coco
29. SW The Last Jedi
30. Pitch Perfect 3
31. Jumanji
32. Daddy's Home 2
33. Greatest Showman on Earth

Possibles:

 

The House

American Made

Murder on Orient Express

Six Billion Dollar Man

Ferdinand

Bad Moms X'mas

Red Sparrow

 

A good year for movies

 

 

Edited April 12, 2017 by zackzack

[mahnamahna]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

IMO, we're 100% locked to have 27 $100m grossers:

The Fate of the Furious
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Alien: Covenant
Pirates of the Caribbean
Baywatch
Wonder Woman
Cars 3
Transformers
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man Homecoming
War for the Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
The Emoji Movie
Kingsman
Thor Ragnarok
Justice League
Coco
Star Wars
Pitch Perfect 3

 

 

Plus.... Ferdinand, Downsizing, Jumanji, Greatest Showman, A Bad Moms Christmas, Daddys Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, Blade Runner, IT, Atomic Blonde, Captain Underpants, The Mummy, Rough Night, The House and Snatched could all do it, too.

Spoiler

Locks

1. Split
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Fifty Shades Darker
4. Get Out
5. Logan
6. Kong - Skull Island
7. Beauty & the Beast
8. The Boss Baby
9. The Fate of the Furious
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
11. Alien - Covenant
12. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales
13. Wonder Woman
14. Cars 3
15. Transformers - The Last Knight
16. Despicable Me 3
17. Spider-Man - Homecoming
18. War for the Planet of the Apes
19. Dunkirk
20. Thor - Ragnorak
21. Justice League
22. Coco
23. Star Wars - The Last Jedi

 

Very to 'very very' likely

1. Baywatch
2. The Mummy
3. The Emoji Movie
4. The Dark Tower
5. IT
6. Ninjago
7. Kingsman - The Golden Circle
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. The Star
10. Murder on the Orient Express
11. Jumanji - Welcome to the Jungle
12. Pitch Perfect 3
13. Downsizing

Possible

1. Snatched
2. Captain Underpants
3. All Eyez on Me
4. Girls Trip
5. My Little Pony - The Movie
6. Daddy's Home 2
7. The Greatest Showman on Earth

 

 

[zackzack]

1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$441,015,751	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17	-
2	Logan	Fox	$219,718,647	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	-
3	The LEGO Batman Movie	WB	$173,408,418	4,088	$53,003,468	4,088	2/10	-
4	Get Out	Uni.	$164,630,015	3,143	$33,377,060	2,781	2/24	-
5	Kong: Skull Island	WB	$158,576,181	3,846	$61,025,472	3,846	3/10	-
6	Split	Uni.	$137,546,410	3,373	$40,010,975	3,038	1/20	-
7	Fifty Shades Darker	Uni.	$114,434,010	3,714	$46,607,250	3,710	2/10	3/30
8	The Boss Baby	Fox	$100,783,907	3,829	$50,198,902	3,773	3/31	-

Edited April 15, 2017 by zackzack

[The Panda]

Lol at the Emoji movie being locked for 100m.

 

I have it pinned for under 60m

[MCKillswitch123]

That makes it 8 baby, and Fate Of The Furious will make it 9.

 

So after this:

 

Done deals:

1 - Split

2 - The Lego Batman Movie

3 - Fifty Shades Darker

4 - Get Out

5 - Logan

6 - Kong: Skull Island

7 - Beauty And The Beast

8 - The Boss Baby

9 - The Fate Of The Furious

 

Locks:

10 - Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2

11 - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

12 - Wonder Woman

13 - Cars 3

14 - Transformers: The Last Knight

15 - Despicable Me 3

16 - Spider-Man: Homecoming

17 - War For The Planet Of The Apes

18 - Dunkirk

19 - Thor: Ragnarok

20 - Justice League

21 - Coco

22 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi

23 - Pitch Perfect 3

 

So, on the worst case scenario at this point, it'll only have 23, which is 13 less than what it needs to do to set a new record...

 

Strong possibilities:

24 - Alien: Covenant

25 - Baywatch

26 - Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

27 - The Mummy

28 - It

29 - The Lego Ninjago Movie

30 - Kingsman: The Golden Circle

31 - Blade Runner 2049

32 - Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle

 

Still needs 4 more...

 

Possibilities:

33 - Rough Night

34 - The House

35 - The Emoji Movie

36 - The Dark Tower

37 - Geostorm

38 - A Bad Moms Christmas

39 - Red Sparrow

40 - Daddy's Home 2

41 - The Star

42 - Ferdinand

43 - Downsizing

 

And just in case some of those go wrong...

 

Realistic last resort breakouts:

44 - Snatched

45 - mother!

46 - God Particle

47 - Murder On The Orient Express

 

Not so realistic last resort breakouts:

48 - King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword

49 - Annabelle: Creation

50 - The Greatest Showman

 

So, there's a lot of leeway for this to go right, it just depends on the possibilities to go right on their own.

Edited April 15, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[mahnamahna]

9 hours ago, 2 Panda 2 Furious said:

Lol at the Emoji movie being locked for 100m.

 

I have it pinned for under 60m

If it weren't for the utterly desolate August lineup, I'd agree at $55-75 million DOM.

 

It'll at least do Angry Birds numbers IMO (smaller OW/similar finish).

[YM!]

9 hours ago, 2 Panda 2 Furious said:

Lol at the Emoji movie being locked for 100m.

 

I have it pinned for under 60m

Normally, I'd go even further and say under $50M, but it's opening in a barren July/August and is really the only kid friendly option. Not to mention, Sony will market the hell out of it, since they are desperate for franchises now, especially with Smurfs failing, the only animated franchises it has are HT and Spider-Man (cause it won't do less than Lego Batman). Emoji should do Planes numbers at worst, which is still close to $100M.

Edited April 15, 2017 by YourMother

[zackzack]

1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$454,649,751	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17	-
2	Logan	Fox	$221,628,647	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	-
3	The LEGO Batman Movie	WB	$173,408,418	4,088	$53,003,468	4,088	2/10	-
4	Get Out	Uni.	$167,547,880	3,143	$33,377,060	2,781	2/24	-
5	Kong: Skull Island	WB	$161,246,181	3,846	$61,025,472	3,846	3/10	-
6	Split	Uni.	$137,818,960	3,373	$40,010,975	3,038	1/20	-
7	The Boss Baby	Fox	$116,323,907	3,829	$50,198,902	3,773	3/31	-
8	Fifty Shades Darker	Uni.	$114,434,010	3,714	$46,607,250	3,710	2/10	3/30
9	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$100,181,640	4,310	$100,181,640	4,310	4/14	-

[mahnamahna]

1 hour ago, zackzack said:

1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$454,649,751	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17	-
2	Logan	Fox	$221,628,647	4,071	$88,411,916	4,071	3/3	-
3	The LEGO Batman Movie	WB	$173,408,418	4,088	$53,003,468	4,088	2/10	-
4	Get Out	Uni.	$167,547,880	3,143	$33,377,060	2,781	2/24	-
5	Kong: Skull Island	WB	$161,246,181	3,846	$61,025,472	3,846	3/10	-
6	Split	Uni.	$137,818,960	3,373	$40,010,975	3,038	1/20	-
7	The Boss Baby	Fox	$116,323,907	3,829	$50,198,902	3,773	3/31	-
8	Fifty Shades Darker	Uni.	$114,434,010	3,714	$46,607,250	3,710	2/10	3/30
9	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$100,181,640	4,310	$100,181,640	4,310	4/14	-

How high does everyone think this list will go once the May-August releases are out?

 

I'm thinking 5 for May, 6 for June, 5 for July and 1 for August.

 

Spoiler

Could be something like this:

1. Beauty & the Beast: $491 million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $424 million
3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $378 million
4. Despicable Me 3: $325 million
5. Dunkirk: $252 million
6. The Fate of the Furious: $243 million
7. Wonder Woman: $237 million
8. Logan: $226 million
9. Cars 3: $209 million
10. War for the Planet of the Apes: $194 million
11. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $183 million
12. Get Out: $176 million
13. The LEGO Batman Movie: $174 million
14. Kong - Skull Island: $169 million
15. The Boss Baby: $164 million
16. The Dark Tower: $158 million
17. Transformers - The Last Knight: $153 million
18. Baywatch: $145 million
19. The Emoji Movie: $141 million
20. Split: $138 million
21. The Mummy: $133 million
22. Alien - Covenant: $118 million
23. Fifty Shades Darker: $114 million
24. Snatched: $103 million
25. Girls Trip: $102 million
26. All Eyez on Me: $100 million