Best Picture predictions-2017!

[WrathOfHan]

Baby Driver is the kind of movie they nominate in Sound Mixing and has some pretty fucking stellar editing, so I'm expecting it in those two categories for now. Otherwise, it's going nowhere. MAYBE it gets Globe nominations.

[dxmatrixdt]

I hope A Ghost Story makes it

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

honestly sticking by this, if any movie from the first half of the year gets awards traction it's Get Out. Baby Driver only chance is maybe sound categories imo.

Eh, I'd say The Big Sick stands a stronger chance, even if it's not by a whole lot. A Sundance-premiered dramedy inspired by a true story (that's also catching on with audiences) from June sounds like something the AMPAS would much more likely go for than a horror flick with satirical undertones from February.

 

Baby Driver getting a random Sound nomination certainly isn't impossible depending on the rest of the year and given the impressiveness of the work in the film. 

[SLAM!]

On 7/4/2017 at 11:41 PM, filmlover said:

Baby Driver getting a random Sound nomination certainly isn't impossible depending on the rest of the year and given the impressiveness of the work in the film. 

 

If 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi can get a random sound nomination, then I think Baby Driver should stand pretty good chance in my opinion.

[Rorschach]

On 6/26/2017 at 6:59 PM, CoolioD1 said:

that is one bitchin' ride!

That line alone will earn him a razzie 

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think Baby Driver actually has a VERY good chance at sound mixing/editing. I imagine Blade Runner, Dunkirk, and Star Wars will be very likely for nominations in at least one categories (particularly the former), and maybe also Detroit. BD however does have a lot of flashy work in this category, and I think it could definitely get into at least Editing.

[Ezen Baklattan]

On 7/4/2017 at 11:41 PM, filmlover said:

Eh, I'd say The Big Sick stands a stronger chance, even if it's not by a whole lot. A Sundance-premiered dramedy inspired by a true story (that's also catching on with audiences) from June sounds like something the AMPAS would much more likely go for than a horror flick with satirical undertones from February.

 

Baby Driver getting a random Sound nomination certainly isn't impossible depending on the rest of the year and given the impressiveness of the work in the film. 

I think Big Sick, unless it turns out to be a strong hit with general audiences, might struggle to do better than a Screenplay nod.

 

If absolutely everything goes well for Get Out, I could see it scoring nods in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Score, Sound, and Cinematography. I could also easily see a nod for Best Ensemble at SAG. They often go for more unexpected choices, like Captain Fantastic, Beasts of No Nation, and Straight Outta Compton.

[titanic2187]

Stick with my prediction:

2015-Spotlight

2016-Moonlight

2017

[WrathOfHan]

Gonna do some new predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. The Papers

2. Dunkirk

3. Detroit

4. mother!

5. The Shape of Water

6. Suburbicon

7. Call Me by Your Name

8. Get Out

9. Darkest Hour

10. Last Flag Flying

Alt: Roman Israel, Esq.

 

Director:

 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

3. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

4. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

5. Steven Spielberg, The Papers

Alt: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, PTA's new joint

2. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

3. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.

4. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

5. Javier Bardem, mother!

Alt: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep, The Post

2. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

4. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

5. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Alt: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

3. Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq.

4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

5. Will Poulter, Detroit

Alt: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Pfieffer, mother!

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

4. Claire Foy, Breathe

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Alt: Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Papers

2. Get Out

3. The Shape of Water

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Suburbicon

Alt: mother!

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Last Flag Flying

2. Call Me by Your Name

3. The Disaster Artist

4. The Death of Stalin

5. Blade Runner 2049

Alt: Lean on Pete

 

I think people are jumping the gun a bit on The Big Sick in BP. I would love if it happened, but it needs both Holly Hunter and Original Screenplay to get in. I think the former will happen, but OS is fucking packed as hell.

 

On another note, I'm going all in on Shape of Water.

Edited July 15, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Jake Gittes]

Given the reception it's hard to see how Guadagnino doesn't make it into Best Director tbh. 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Given the reception it's hard to see how Guadagnino doesn't make it into Best Director tbh. 

Yeah, I think Call Me by Your Name is gonna end up a top 5 contender. It and The Papers (which would have to be a total flop to miss based on the pedigree involved alone) are the only movies I feel comfortable in saying are definitely getting in as of now, though that could change depending on Dunkirk's critical reception in two days.

[cannastop]

Dunkirk. That is all.

[Rorschach]

The Big Sick

Blade Runner 2049

Call Me by Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

mother!

The Papers

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

[filmlover]

I saw the trailer for The Shape of Water before Apes over the weekend (that isn't online yet for whatever reason). I really don't think that's a movie that will be an Oscar player based on what was shown.

[Rorschach]

45 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I saw the trailer for The Shape of Water before Apes over the weekend (that isn't online yet for whatever reason). I really don't think that's a movie that will be an Oscar player based on what was shown.

That's just odd. Also, that's really disappointing to hear.

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, Rorschach said:

That's just odd. Also, that's really disappointing to hear.

i wouldn't base anything off of that post.

Edited July 17, 2017 by CoolioD1

[Rorschach]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

i wouldn't base anything off of that post.

I'm keeping my reservations for now. I'm pretty confident in del Toro's abilities as a director. I just wish they'd release the damn trailer already so I can make my own opinion.

[filmlover]

58 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

That's just odd. Also, that's really disappointing to hear.

Not that I didn't say the movie looks bad. It actually looks interesting and very del Toro-esque (which is to say the visuals are of course amazing) with a potentially hammy villain performance from Michael Shannon (the best Michael Shannon tbh), so I wouldn't rule out tech noms.

[WrathOfHan]

The Shape of Water looks very accessible to the Academy. Let's not forget Pan's Labyrinth got SIX nominations. I know they're different movies, but a GDT flick with widespread acclaim could be huge with the Academy.

[WrathOfHan]

Predictions for other categories:

 

Spoiler

 

Animated:

 

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

4. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

5. Ferdinand

Alt: My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. mother!
5. Wonderstruck

Alt: Detroit

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Detroit

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. The Shape of Water

5. Baby Driver

Alt: mother!

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Detroit

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Alt: The Papers

 

Costume Design:

 

1. The Greatest Showman

2. The Shape of Water 

3. Detroit

4. Beauty and the Beast

5. mother!

Alt: Wonder Woman

 

Makeup:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Darkest Hour

3. The Greatest Showman

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

 

Score:

 

1. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

2. Johan Johannson, mother!

3. Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck

4. Johan Johannson, Blade Runner 2049

5. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water

 

Song:

 

1. Coco

2. The Greatest Showman

3. Evermore, Beauty and the Beast

4. I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Fifty Shades Darker

5. Chase Me, Baby Driver

Alt: Ferdinand

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. Dunkirk

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Alt: Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Shape of Water

4. Detroit

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Alt: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. The Greatest Showman

2. Dunkirk

3. Baby Driver

4. Blade Runner 2049

5. The Shape of Water

Alt: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Total nominations:

 

13:

The Shape of Water (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

9:

Dunkirk (Picture, Director, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

8:

Blade Runner 2049 (Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

mother! (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, Score)

 

7:

Detroit (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Sound Editing)

 

5:

The Greatest Showman (Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Song, Sound Mixing)

 

4:

The Papers (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay)

 

3:

 

Baby Driver (Editing, Song, Sound Mixing)

Call Me by Your Name (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

Darkest Hour (Picture, Actor, Makeup)

Last Flag Flying (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

 

2:

 

Beauty and the Beast (Costume Design, Song)

Coco (Animated, Song)

Get Out (Picture, Original Screenplay)

Roman Israel, Esq. (Actor, Supporting Actor)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Score, Sound Editing)

Suburbicon (Picture, Original Screenplay)

Three Billboards (Actress, Original Screenplay)

Wonderstruck (Cinematography, Score)

Edited July 18, 2017 by WrathOfHan