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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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I'm kind of thinking Shape of Water might steal this whole thing providing it's good. All the other contenders have stuff going against them:

 

Dunkirk: Will not get a Screenplay nomination

The Papers: Will it even get any technical nominations? There's a decent chance this only ends up with BP/Director/Actress/Screenplay nominations. Even Spotlight had more nominations than that.

Detroit: Will this have a narrative to win? Will Annapurna campaign well? Will it have acting nominations?

Get Out: Screenplay is looking like its only other nomination right now. How can a movie win BP in this day and age with only one other nomination?

mother!: This is looking to be very out there based on Paramount's marketing decision. 

Call Me by Your Name: Much more arthouse than Moonlight. It doesn't feel like a BP winner at all.

Darkest Hour: A middlebrow Joe Wright film will not win.

The Florida Project/The Disaster Artist: Which one is A24 going to push? Neither feel like BP winners.

Last Flag Flying: Like The Papers, this probably won't get any technical nominations.

Suburbicon: Will it be another Hail Caesar?

Annihilation: Some are speculating this is getting bumped up with mother's date change, but it's probably too heavy sci-fi to win.

 

Like, the only thing going against Shape of Water is its fantasy elements. OTOH, it ticks boxes the Academy likes: romance, war, and a unique feel. The Papers is still my prediction, but Shape of Water isn't something we can ignore.

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2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Get Out might win the whole thing, but we'll see how things fall out with other movies. I'm not ruling it out. Def think it's getting nominated.

 

Also I've been tricked before by I HEARD Oscar forecasts, but I heard that Shape of Water is a really legit contender and word is great for it. 

 

Considering Fox Searchlight is releasing it a few weeks before Christmas, they must think it has potential for some kind of award. Although I don't think it'll happen, it'll certainly be an interesting choice for a best picture nom.

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6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Call Me by Your Name: Much more arthouse than Moonlight. It doesn't feel like a BP winner at all.

Really? From what I understand it has a conventional structure and is an openly emotional and romantic movie, which should make it much more immediately appealing. "Much more arthouse than Moonlight" basically means Tree of Life territory or something, because Moonlight was pretty arthouse for an American indie. 

 

After seeing Dunkirk I'm not looking forward to it winning anything other than the sound awards tbh. It's good but not that good. 

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19 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

right now really feeling what's been happening the last few years. Dunkirk picks up best director and a bunch of techs (sounds, editing, score, cinematography all look pretty good) and some more socially relevant smaller film wins best picture. maybe the papers or call me by your name or get out.

This.

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I'm getting sinking feelings re: Detroit tbh. Buzz has been on the quiet side two weeks away from release (early reactions have been "fine" and that won't be enough to carry it with an early release), box office is likely to be low (it's gonna be much closer to Get on Up than either The Help or The Butler), and it has potential to be even more controversial than Zero Dark Thirty was. Won't be surprised if it falls out of all predictions before the festivals get here at the end of August.

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New predictions for BP and BD with Detroit reviews now in:

 

1. The Papers

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. mother!

6. Get Out

7. Suburbicon

8. Darkest Hour

9. Detroit

10. Last Flag Flying

Alt: Roman Israel, Esq.

 

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

2. Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

3. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

5. Steven Spielberg, The Papers

Alt: Jordan Peele, Get Out

 

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Papers and Greatest Showman will still probably get NYFF or AFI. NYFF has Last Flag Flying, they'll probably add one more big premiere. Actually stunned Blade Runner is missing everything, unless it gets Venice.

 

My predicts for BP right now, prior to festivals

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Papers

4. Suburbicon

5. mother!

6. Call Me By Your Name

7. Get Out

Fairly confident about those seven minus Suburbicon, the only one we have no real indication on. Good feeling about it.

8. Hmmmm....Mudbound

9. Downsizing?

 

Honorable Mention

Detroit

Last Flag Flying

Phantom Thread

The Florida Project

 

I think Blade Runner might disappoint, tbh. Greatest Showman is a non-starter. Don't see it for Star Wars/Apes/Wonder Woman.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Papers and Greatest Showman will still probably get NYFF or AFI. NYFF has Last Flag Flying, they'll probably add one more big premiere. Actually stunned Blade Runner is missing everything, unless it gets Venice.

 

My predicts for BP right now, prior to festivals

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Papers

4. Suburbicon

5. mother!

6. Call Me By Your Name

7. Get Out

Fairly confident about those seven minus Suburbicon, the only one we have no real indication on. Good feeling about it.

8. Hmmmm....Mudbound

9. Downsizing?

 

Honorable Mention

Detroit

Last Flag Flying

Phantom Thread

The Florida Project

 

I think Blade Runner might disappoint, tbh. Greatest Showman is a non-starter. Don't see it for Star Wars/Apes/Wonder Woman.

 

 

Blade Runner and The Greatest Showman are major studio releases that are box office plays first and foremost. I don't think either is at all concerned with having festival bows.

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Apparently, Fox is gonna push for Oscar noms for Logan, so I think it's genuinely possible that's nominated too.  My predicts:

 

  1. The Papers
  2. Get Out
  3. Call Me by Your Name
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Roman Israel, Esq
  6. Mother!
  7. Molly's Game
  8. Blade Runner 2049
  9. Logan
  10. Phantom Thread
Edited by That Floating Guy
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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Blade Runner and The Greatest Showman are major studio releases that are box office plays first and foremost. I don't think either is at all concerned with having festival bows.

Gravity and The Martian both premiered at festivals. Toronto shows basically everything anyway, so if a movie's good, premiering there would be nothing but good publicity. 

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I don't think the lack of festivals will matter with Blade Runner; what will matter is the fact it's a very slow 2 and a half hour sci-fi movie. It'll do great in the techs and maybe get an Adapted Screenplay nomination, but I don't see it breaking into Picture or Director unless it's mindblowing. 

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On 1/15/2017 at 11:53 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Darkest Hour

Downsizing

Dunkirk

First Man

Kathryn Bigelow's New Film

The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara

Mother

Paul Thomas Anderson's New Film

Wind River

Wonderstruck

 

These are going to be hilariously wrong. This was my first 2016 list:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Thanks for liking this Blanks.

 

Maybe?

Maybe?

Locked.

2018.

Maybe?

2019 or later. Let's just say this is The Papers :ph34r: 

Probably?

Maybe?

No.

No.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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9 hours ago, That EddieKaspbrak Guy said:

Apparently, Fox is gonna push for Oscar noms for Logan, so I think it's genuinely possible that's nominated too.

 

I sure hope so. Many other films are revealing themselves as middling so Logan might just have a shot! A small shot, but a shot nonetheless!

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