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Impact

Best Picture predictions-2017!

135 posts in this topic

Downsizing is getting polarizing reactions from test screenings. I'm removing it from my predictions for now. New predicts:

 

1. Detroit

2. The Post

3. Dunkirk

4. Wonderstruck

5. Darkest Hour

6. Suburbicon

7. mother!

8. The Greatest Showman

9. PTA Film

10. Get Out

 

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Downsizing is getting polarizing reactions from test screenings. 

Link?

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20 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Link?

Go to the film's thread on AwardsWatch. There's been multiple screenings and there were reviews up on Letterboxd until the site took them down.

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58 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Go to the film's thread on AwardsWatch. There's been multiple screenings and there were reviews up on Letterboxd until the site took them down.

 

Can you link it cause I'm having trouble finding it.

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I really don't think they're touching Get Out in a million years. The best shot it has is a Screenplay nomination ala Bridesmaids and Straight Outta Compton (and those movies were SAG Ensemble nominees, something that's very unlikely for Get Out, so...).

 

The only movie that's been seen so far this year with an actual shot at being a major awards force is Call Me by Your Name (which won't win Best Picture but could still score a bunch of nominations if the festival passion from the beginning of the year ends up extending to the film's release at the end).

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Get Out could get there with the right campaign. It has a decent angle (racial social commentary in a scary post-Obama world) and puh-lenty of time to build up a strong support base. It would never stand a chance in a five-wide lineup, but it's an intriguing wild card that has a chance to sneak into an expanded field.

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14 hours ago, filmlover said:

The best shot it has is a Screenplay nomination ala Bridesmaids and Straight Outta Compton (and those movies were SAG Ensemble nominees, something that's very unlikely for Get Out, so...).

huh?

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

huh?

I meant that those movies were most likely much closer to being Best Picture nominees than something like Get Out will be. Where will the support come from other than the writers guilds? Acting noms aren't happening, nor is technical categories (which will favor much flashier choices).

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I'd be very surprised if Get Out doesn't get a BP nom.  It's one of the best reviewed films of the decade.

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We shall see. Basically a lot of contenders are gonna have to fall throughout the remaining 7.5 months of the year for it to have a good shot.

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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

We shall see. Basically a lot of contenders are gonna have to fall throughout the remaining 7.5 months of the year for it to have a good shot.

movies technically can't really even be referred to as "contenders" until reviews are out there. so there aren't a lot yet. and the same thing happened w/ like mad max and shit check out the predictions there, was "not an oscar thing" for months until it became an oscar thing. get out better box office/reviews as well.

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Posted (edited)

Bad reviews will sink most any film but the enthusiasm threshold is less for certain kinds of movies than others. A genre movie has to have pretty much unanimous praise to even receive consideration while a middlebrow drama only needs mild admiration.

 

I don't think Get Out will be noticed because I expect its backers will have moved on to something else by the end of the year. Also I hated the movie.

 

 

Edited by tribefan695
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6 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Also I hated the movie.

you didn't have to make up another excuse you coulda just stuck w/ this. i don't buy the first thing. the buzz got too loud. it's for sure gonna be a conversation critics will have in december. i don't like to make too many early calls but that's one i'll go for.

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12 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I don't think Get Out will be noticed because I expect its backers will have moved on to something else by the end of the year.

Universal doesn't have much on their plate awards-wise this year, though.

 

I'm sure they'll give it something of a push. How effective it'll be remains to be seen.

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Uni has Thank You for Your Service and The Snowman late in the year, and Focus has Victoria/Abdul and Darkest Hour. Seems like they have a big enough plate to choose from.

 

And I'm expecting Detroit will become the more serious and dramatic fodder that critics won't be as self-conscious about basing their racism thinkpieces on.

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The thinkpiece brigade has already got started on detroit and i don't buy either of those Uni prospects at all.

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Clearly an impasse here, but I will say I'm proud of sticking to my guns on Spotlight when everyone was claiming The Big Short was the new frontrunner.

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Posted (edited)

I suppose if we're predicting, then...

 

PTA flick

Get Out

Suburbicon

Call Me by Your Name

The Post

Dunkirk

Blade Runner 2049

Detroit

Mother!
The Current War

 

My rotating list of replacements if one of these turns to be a flop critically (aka the not-quite rejects): Goodbye Christopher Robin, Thank You for Your Service, Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Mountain Between us, Marshall, Greatest Showman, Mary Magdalene, Snowman, Granite Mountain, American Made, Victoria and Abdul, Stronger, Wind River, Logan, The Big Sick, A Ghost Story, The Beguiled, Baby Driver, Colossal, Their Finest, Lost City of Z, Mudbound, Wonderstuck, Logan Lucky, Darkest Hour, Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Molly's Game

Edited by That One Guy

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Posted (edited)

2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Clearly an impasse here, but I will say I'm proud of sticking to my guns on Spotlight when everyone was claiming The Big Short was the new frontrunner.

okey dokey. you got one before. in that case i'll buy it.

Edited by CoolioD1

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