Monday Numbers KONG 5.4, Logan 3.7, GO 2.4

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

They usually include them, they probably assume no cost for any promotion made via a partner and do not include them, otherwise the P&A of those franchise movie would be ridiculously high and not the reasonable number they tend to use.

 

Hmm, Sony said to Variety that the $100m they suggested for Ghostbusters didn't take into account their huge promotional partner and product placement deals.

[Outrageous!]

Collide may have finished its run.   Box Office Mojo has not updated totals for that movie for last weekend or Monday, and it currently is listed as being in release for 14 days, the same amount of time as Jem and the Holograms.  Collide does have the biggest second weekend drop, at 88.5%, however, it is a case of "six of one, a half dozen of the other" between it and Jem and the Holograms.  Collide had higher per theater averages for its second week, as Jem had days in its second week, when it was earning $10 and $15 per theater per day.  That is because Collide, unlike Jem, actually cut its theater count in half for the second week.  I guess one good thing about Split and Get Out doing so well, is that Blumhouse is unlikely to ever try to make a movie like Jem again.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Outrageous!

[Finnick]

MONDAY BREAKDOWN!!

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Kong: Skull Island	Warner Bros.	$5,348,046	-69%	3,846	$1,391	$66,373,518	4
2	(2)	Logan	20th Century Fox	$3,608,355	-68%	4,071	$886	$156,527,513	11
3	(3)	Get Out	Universal	$2,339,100	-61%	3,143	$744	$113,064,385	18
4	(4)	The Shack	Lionsgate	$990,486	-68%	2,888	$343	$33,216,728	11
5	(5)	The Lego Batman Movie	Warner Bros.	$904,268	-61%	3,303	$274	$159,722,340	32
6	(7)	Before I Fall	Open Road	$317,362	-57%	2,346	$135	$9,246,956	11
7	(6)	John Wick: Chapter Two	Lionsgate	$291,694	-63%	2,031	$144	$87,686,902	32
8	(8)	Hidden Figures	20th Century Fox	$283,853	-62%	1,421	$200	$163,145,041	79
9	(9)	La La Land	Lionsgate	$195,316	-58%	1,578	$124	$148,644,574	95
10	(15)	A Dog’s Purpose	Universal	$161,405	-54%	1,022	$158	$61,956,920	46
11	(11)	The Great Wall	Universal	$149,315	-61%	1,592	$94	$43,985,320	25
12	(12)	Lion	Weinstein Co.	$146,249	-60%	960	$152	$48,793,866	109
13	(14)	Rock Dog	Lionsgate	$144,269	-60%	1,376	$105	$8,391,793	18
14	(13)	Fist Fight	Warner Bros.	$140,967	-62%	1,285	$110	$30,634,650	25
15	(10)	Fifty Shades Darker	Universal	$140,340	-65%	1,498	$94	$113,085,670	32
16	(-)	Split	Universal	$128,280	-59%	981	$131	$135,994,355	53
-	(-)	Table 19	Fox Searchlight	$94,780	-57%	868	$109	$3,072,883	11
-	(-)	Moonlight	A24	$93,549	-62%	987	$95	$26,988,900	144
-	(-)	Badrinath Ki Dulhania	FIP	$71,796	-72%	152	$472	$933,804	4
-	(-)	Sing	Universal	$65,805	-53%	400	$165	$268,810,670	83
-	(-)	A United Kingdom	Fox Searchlight	$56,800	-62%	317	$179	$2,668,746	32
-	(-)	Moana	Walt Disney	$51,876	-60%	276	$188	$247,538,709	111
-	(-)	Monster Trucks	Paramount Pictures	$28,852	-44%	181	$159	$33,272,672	60
-	(-)	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	Walt Disney	$22,767	-62%	166	$137	$530,140,814	88
-	(-)	Why Him?	20th Century Fox	$18,476	-50%	68	$272	$60,209,914	81
-	(-)	Fences	Paramount Pictures	$17,807	-61%	189	$94	$57,411,275	88
-	(-)	Trolls	20th Century Fox	$15,670	+17%	60	$261	$153,600,239	130
-	(-)	xXx: Return of Xander Cage	Paramount Pictures	$12,121	-61%	139	$87	$44,862,438	53
-	(-)	Fantastic Beasts and Where …	Warner Bros.	$11,207	-58%	188	$60	$233,829,800	116
-	(-)	The Founder	Weinstein Co.	$8,135	-44%	57	$143	$12,581,871	73
-	(-)	Rings	Paramount Pictures	$5,176	-49%	76	$68	$27,690,560	39
-	(-)	The Sense of an Ending	CBS Films	$3,774	-63%	4	$944	$43,465	4
-	(-)	20th Century Women	A24	$3,654	-54%	29	$126	$5,546,659	79
-	(-)	Everybody Loves Somebody	Lionsgate	$3,566	-63%	33	$108	$1,876,819	25
-	(-)	Raw	Focus World	$2,691	-53%	2	$1,346	$27,516	4
-	(-)	Doctor Strange	Walt Disney	$2,363	-57%	47	$50	$232,633,081	130
-	(-)	Tim Timmerman: Hope of America	Purdie Distribution	$1,115	+45%	12	$93	$77,005	11

[franfar]

3 minutes ago, Finnick said:

 

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
-	(-)	Monster Trucks	Paramount Pictures	$28,852	-44%	181	$159	$33,272,672	60

 

Nice drop

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, franfar said:

Nice drop

 

All is right in this world.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

 

Hmm, Sony said to Variety that the $100m they suggested for Ghostbusters didn't take into account their huge promotional partner and product placement deals.

 

You could be right that they underestimate a little bit promotional but they are clearly trying to take them into account and why they suggest that low $100m world P&A for Ghostbuster that is cheaper than White House down or the usual sony big world release, while they were everywhere.

 

Reading they're take on Spectre for example (the Smarthphone placement deal on Spectre was a 50 million budget of co-ads + 5 million in money with some of it going directly into Craig pocket).

--------------

http://deadline.com/2015/11/spectre-profit-box-office-skyfall-james-bond-franchise-1201615942/
That has been part of every conversation I’ve had on the movie’s performance, and it is a relevant question: With a combined estimated production cost and global P&A upward of $350M, how much will Spectre need to gross to churn a profit? The math is fairly simple: Cut the domestic gross in half for the exhibitor split, the studio retains 40% of the overseas B.O., another 25% from China receipts that will kick in next weekend, and estimate the value of the ancillaries. Then place that up against the considerable budget and P&A spend. Unless it veers off track, the Bond picture is going to make money for MGM and its producer/rights holders and less for Sony Pictures, even though the studio co-financed the picture.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The expected global P&A for Bond 24 was of 150 million, giving a production + Global P&A of around 370 million, at the time of the green light an expected net budget at 220 million, not that far from Deadline 350 million estimate. And Bonds is arguably the franchise that get the most and best product placement deal.

 

Sony estimated break even point was at 524.5 million WW (478.5 in Sony territories), that is quite high for a 220 million budget movie, with a reasonable 150$ million P&A, but it is intl heavy, they have only the theater distribution right (and not from everywhere like they say in the article) no home media and a deal that is significantly at MGM advantage like they are saying (it is bit the cost are 50-50, profit are 25-75 for MGM).

 

Of all deadline estimate numbers, I think releasing cost is the one they tend to be the closer too, budget are secret, participation deal are secret and they tend to be really wrong about those, but releasing is very public and how much poster cost, trailer on TV, etc... can be estimate fairly well.

Edited March 14, 2017 by Barnack

[Valonqar]

Everyone who said LLL wouldn't pass Chicago was right. That thing ain't gonna limp its way to over 170M and even win wouldn't have helped. Great run regardless but expectations were really off. 

[fmpro]

I really like having you around @Barnack 

 

Great examples 

 

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Everyone who said LLL wouldn't pass Chicago was right. That thing ain't gonna limp its way to over 170M and even win wouldn't have helped. Great run regardless but expectations were really off. 

 

It did look like it was going to do so:

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/La-La-Land/Chicago

 

It's 15 million advance just melted away, even if it would have if it would have won a couple more Oscar and best picture, it look like it could still have ended up a bit below.

 

15 minutes ago, fmpro said:

I really like having you around @Barnack 

 

Great examples 

 

Thanks

[Jonwo]

27 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

You could be right that they underestimate a little bit promotional but they are clearly trying to take them into account and why they suggest that low $100m world P&A for Ghostbuster that is cheaper than White House down or the usual sony big world release, while they were everywhere.

 

Reading they're take on Spectre for example (the Smarthphone placement deal on Spectre was a 50 million budget of co-ads + 5 million in money with some of it going directly into Craig pocket).

--------------

http://deadline.com/2015/11/spectre-profit-box-office-skyfall-james-bond-franchise-1201615942/
That has been part of every conversation I’ve had on the movie’s performance, and it is a relevant question: With a combined estimated production cost and global P&A upward of $350M, how much will Spectre need to gross to churn a profit? The math is fairly simple: Cut the domestic gross in half for the exhibitor split, the studio retains 40% of the overseas B.O., another 25% from China receipts that will kick in next weekend, and estimate the value of the ancillaries. Then place that up against the considerable budget and P&A spend. Unless it veers off track, the Bond picture is going to make money for MGM and its producer/rights holders and less for Sony Pictures, even though the studio co-financed the picture.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The expected global P&A for Bond 24 was of 150 million, giving a production + Global P&A of around 370 million, at the time of the green light an expected net budget at 220 million, not that far from Deadline 350 million estimate. And Bonds is arguably the franchise that get the most and best product placement deal.

 

Sony estimated break even point was at 524.5 million WW (478.5 in Sony territories), that is quite high for a 220 million budget movie, with a reasonable 150$ million P&A, but it is intl heavy, they have only the theater distribution right (and not from everywhere like they say in the article) no home media and a deal that is significantly at MGM advantage like they are saying (it is bit the cost are 50-50, profit are 25-75 for MGM).

 

Of all deadline estimate numbers, I think releasing cost is the one they tend to be the closer too, budget are secret, participation deal are secret and they tend to be really wrong about those, but releasing is very public and how much poster cost, trailer on TV, etc... can be estimate fairly well.

 

Bond was a real bad deal for Sony since most of the profit is going to MGM and EON. The product placement and marketing deal are pretty lucrative for Bond because most of the luxury brands like OMEGA, Tom Ford, Aston Martin etc will be willing to shell out or place their product in the film and marketing. 

 

I'll be curious to see if MGM and EON go to a different studio for the next Bond as I suspect whoever gets it will want a bigger cut of the profits or a smaller percentage of financing. 

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It did look like it was going to do so:

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/La-La-Land/Chicago

 

It's 15 million advance just melted away, even if it would have if it would have won a couple more Oscar and best picture, it look like it could still have ended up a bit below.

 

Thanks

 

Just shows how unpredictable boxoffice can. Some movies seem to have limitless supply of new audience and repeat views, some give that impression and then suddenly lose interest. I remember when Americna Sniper hit and at first it looked like it could go over 400M and than the interest suddenly dropped. 

 

[John Marston]

Monday drops are better than average 

[Jonwo]

Just now, Valonqar said:

 

Just shows how unpredictable boxoffice can. Some movies seem to have limitless supply of new audience and repeat views, some give that impression and then suddenly lose interest. I remember when Americna Sniper hit and at first it looked like it could go over 400M and than the interest suddenly dropped. 

 

 

American Sniper still made $350m domestic which for a war film is still great. WB made a very healthy profit on that film although I imagine Eastwood and Cooper did well out of it too.

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Bond was a real bad deal for Sony

 

It is not a high pay check (they made more money from Grown Up than the billion dollar at the box office Skyfall), but it is a really safe one.

 

I wonder how much value they give to the fact they have the ability to equal any offer to put Sony product into the franchise, maybe it is seen like a good Sony product placement vehicle machine at a good price (after the money Sony spend on product placement participate at reducing the cost of their own movie) for them more than anything else. 

 

Even thought they would not loose that much money if they were too loose the distribution deal it would still hurt them in that way. 

Edited March 14, 2017 by Barnack

[grey ghost]

48 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Everyone who said LLL wouldn't pass Chicago was right. That thing ain't gonna limp its way to over 170M and even win wouldn't have helped. Great run regardless but expectations were really off. 

 

Chicago was always a long shot.

 

But alot of people scoffed at 150 m back in December.

[Valonqar]

18 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

American Sniper still made $350m domestic which for a war film is still great. WB made a very healthy profit on that film although I imagine Eastwood and Cooper did well out of it too.

 

Oh, I'm not undermining AS boxoffice achievement at all. I'm just saying that soemtimes movies look unstoppable and than become stoppable earlier than expected, that robs them of higher boxoffice.

 

@grey ghost I remember that scoffing. 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

33 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Monday drops are better than average 

 

Avg for adult fare but you can tell school's out in some places with the drops for all the kid skewed movies. 

 

Tues should be higher than usual for everything because so many schools and even workplaces were shut down for the storm on the East Coast.

[YM!]

Is everyone ignoring the jump TLBM had from last Monday?

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Is everyone ignoring the jump TLBM had from last Monday?

 

I assume it's because of spring break.

[YM!]

Just now, AABATTERY said:

 

I assume it's because of spring break.

True, but only 18% of kids are on break.