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MONDAY #'s: BATB $13.5m (Asgard)

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4 minutes ago, Jack said:

While JB is a good comparison but I am sure BatB will be more front-loaded than JB. Let say we exclude the Thu preview numbers for a $150m OW, and with 3-3.5x multiplier, this will translate to $400-525m, averaged at $460m final.

I wish it can crack $500m though.

Yeah but why would you exlude the preview number?Multys always take that number in consideration so in that case your lowed prediction of a multy brings it to 522M.

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The math is also wrong.  Subtracting the previews from the OW actuals gives $158.5M (174.8M-16.3M). Using your 3-3.5x multiplier from this figure gives a range of $475.5M to $554.75M, averaging to $515M. Though as mentioned above, multipliers are always calculated from the full opening weekend number with previews included. Unless it has worse legs than usual for a family film, BATB will have no trouble hitting $500M. 

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Thx for making it more accurate. I just roughly did the calculation without checking the exact numbers.

Also excluding the preview numbers is just one way to lower the front-loaded effect. And also JB has very little preview numbers ($4.2m?) compared to its OW.

Any way $500m seems more possible to me now :D.

 

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1 hour ago, Hatebox said:

It's hard to feel strongly about Beast one way or another, but I feel like it missing out on 500m would be a victory for basic human decency.

 

Oh, yes. I was also really upset with BatB for assisting Bashar Al Assad in the Syrian Civil War. Complete and utter lack of human decency.

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Why would anyone freak out over a Monday number?  This is a family film.  Was that ever in doubt?  Did you see the huge bump it got on Saturday?  That indicates strong WOM and it also indicates that families are the driving force behind it.  The weekday numbers are going to play out like a family film as well.  And then on the weekend it's going to have huge increases.  If it follows a typical family film pattern when school is still in it will be down at around 10.5 million on Thursday and then jump close to 200% on Friday and more than 55% on Saturday.  It has a very real chance of hitting north of 100 million for the second weekend.  So give it a 40% drop and it will hit about 105 million for the weekend, add it the Mon-Thurs gross of about 51 million and you have a total after the second weekend of about 330 million.  If it manages to do this, and I don't see why it wouldn't, then 500 isn't locked, because I don't like locking something when it is that far away, but it has a very realistic chance of doing 500 million.  500 million is just under a 3X and I don't see why it can't hit that.  The numbers from the weekend indicate that audiences love it...hence the enormous Saturday bump and tiny drop on Sunday.  

 

There's only one or two posters in here saying silly things about Beauty and the Beast.  Saying it will make just over 400 and not much more defies the laws of box office.  If BaTB jumps less than 175% on Friday and less than 50% on Saturday, then you can start the less than 500 conversation and it will be realistic.  But right now, the way I see it, 500 is looking really good.

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3 hours ago, MrMarosa said:

Less than BvS’s first Monday and in line with CW’s first Monday. Buh-bye, 500 million. 

Even with the whole ”but its a family film!!!" thing, this ain’t making a whole lot more than 400.

 

Get back to me on that after the weekend.  

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Oh, boy, this is going to be a rollercoaster. Family movies do poorly on weekdays which is understandable. Then do insane business on weekend especially Saturday. Rinse repeat. It's gonna be 500M on/off table every day. :rofl:

 

Only for those who don't really understand how box office works.  Anyone who thinks this is going to have a massive drop this weekend is fooling themselves.  My guess is it falls right around 40%.  It'll be close to 330 million this weekend.

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1 hour ago, baumer said:

Why would anyone freak out over a Monday number?  This is a family film.  Was that ever in doubt?  Did you see the huge bump it got on Saturday?  That indicates strong WOM and it also indicates that families are the driving force behind it.  The weekday numbers are going to play out like a family film as well.  And then on the weekend it's going to have huge increases.  If it follows a typical family film pattern when school is still in it will be down at around 10.5 million on Thursday and then jump close to 200% on Friday and more than 55% on Saturday.  It has a very real chance of hitting north of 100 million for the second weekend.  So give it a 40% drop and it will hit about 105 million for the weekend, add it the Mon-Thurs gross of about 51 million and you have a total after the second weekend of about 330 million.  If it manages to do this, and I don't see why it wouldn't, then 500 isn't locked, because I don't like locking something when it is that far away, but it has a very realistic chance of doing 500 million.  500 million is just under a 3X and I don't see why it can't hit that.  The numbers from the weekend indicate that audiences love it...hence the enormous Saturday bump and tiny drop on Sunday.  

 

There's only one or two posters in here saying silly things about Beauty and the Beast.  Saying it will make just over 400 and not much more defies the laws of box office.  If BaTB jumps less than 175% on Friday and less than 50% on Saturday, then you can start the less than 500 conversation and it will be realistic.  But right now, the way I see it, 500 is looking really good.

 

105M second weekend? I still have my doubts it can reach the heights of Avengers and JW 2nd weekend.

 

85-90M look more realistic prediction

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While this Monday number doesn't really change much, I'd say that people calling $500 million a "lock" are being a bit premature. Just last year, most of us had $500m as a near certainty for Dory right until its fourth weekend after which Pets killed any chance it had to reach that mark. So, for BatB, I doubt we'll be able to lock anything until at least, the FF8 weekend.

 

As of now, BatB is performing like a hybrid between a family movie (based on the Sat hold) and a YA movie (based on the preview share of the OD). We still have insufficient data to know which one it's going to follow more closely. I'm personally expecting a multi close to the Original AiW (2.9x) with which it shares a few similarities (BO wise) which would result in a total of about 505m. But I wouldn't be surprised with anything between $475m and $525m.

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8 minutes ago, baumer said:

When does spring break kick in for the US?

 

It started two weeks ago for some of the states in the south, last week more and this week, as well

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