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MONDAY #'s: BATB $13.5m (Asgard)

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5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Only for those who don't really understand how box office works.  Anyone who thinks this is going to have a massive drop this weekend is fooling themselves.  My guess is it falls right around 40%.  It'll be close to 330 million this weekend.

 

Aren't schools in some states already closed for Spring break? I think a Friday bump over 100% would be good enough.

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3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

105M second weekend? I still have my doubts it can reach the heights of Avengers and JW 2nd weekend.

 

85-90M look more realistic prediction

 

Image result for that is why you fail gif

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3 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

Aren't schools in some states already closed for Spring break? I think a Friday bump over 100% would be good enough.

 

If spring break was a factor for this film then it wouldn't have fallen 72% on Monday.

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7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That makes no sense.

 

Why not?

Family films have better holds during Spring break.

BatB is a family film

BatB is delivering better holds because it's Spring break.

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

what's wrong wth box office mojo website???
It's been down for several hours........

 

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Keith. 

Brad's been back...every time there's a BOM outage I worry it'll be the end of the site as we know it. :(

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I'm definitely not a BaTB loonie, in fact, I didn't care for it all that much (I gave it 6.5/10).  So this has nothing to do with me not seeing the forest for the trees.  But to ignore what BaTB did on the weekend and then to further ignore what similar films did on their second weekend, is not going to give you a clear picture of what it should make.  It's going to jump north of 175% on Friday and north of 50% on Saturday.  IMO, a 97-105 million weekend seems logical.  

 

For it to drop below 90 means close to a 50% drop and that just isn't happening.  This is not a polarizing film the way BvS and CW were.

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10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Aren't schools in some states already closed for Spring break? I think a Friday bump over 100% would be good enough.

 

Spring Break is going on down here. So we've started Spring Break season, but I don't know how many states/districts are/aren't on spring break.

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@baumer last week was the big week of Spring break for the box office at least till easter week next month. Take a look at the week to week increases that the family films had all last week. Things are obviously much tamer this week, I think deadline said only 13% of schools are out. 

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3 hours ago, narniadis said:

@baumer last week was the big week of Spring break for the box office at least till easter week next month. Take a look at the week to week increases that the family films had all last week. Things are obviously much tamer this week, I think deadline said only 13% of schools are out. 

 

Which means the Friday increases are going to be huge.  Mojo is down right now, but if you look at the increases for family films on the same weekend in years past, they are quite significant.

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5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

If spring break was a factor for this film then it wouldn't have fallen 72% on Monday.

 

Eh, if we consider that BatB is a family movie, then there's no way it could drop only 72% without some help from Spring Break. Zootopia last March fell like 81% on its first Monday (before SB) then 72% the following week as some schools started closing and  67% the next one as more schools were closed.

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3 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

Eh, if we consider that BatB is a family movie, then there's no way it could drop only 72% without some help from Spring Break. Zootopia last March fell like 81% on its first Monday (before SB) then 72% the following week as some schools started closing and  67% the next one as more schools were closed.

 

It's first Monday was March 7th.  We're two weeks past that.

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I don't see a 40% drop second weekend, no. Too big of an opening and next weekend is nothing special. Not a holiday. A 50% drop off such an awesome opening weekend is absolutely nothing to be ashamed of whatsoever. It'll be a huge hit with those numbers as it already is...

 

I enjoyed the movie, very fun, overall. I didn't love it, but it's not my thing. It seems like the ladies may love it more than the guys, just insofar as it being a love story and not many guys are going to call this remake "the best movie of the year" when Logan and John Wick 2 are such clearly superior films. Still, I got what I wanted - a visual feast and a lot of fun and entertainment at the movies. Happy I saw it in IMAX.

 

I will be rooting against Beauty and the Beast making $500M. Nothing personal just don't have any desire to see it do better than it needs to do. I pick my movies I enjoy rooting for and Get Out remains one of those along with John Wick 2 because I can't wait for the 3rd. I don't care how much profit Disney makes on Beauty, they'll make a lot and that's fine by me. No need to set the bar too high for Last Jedi to step over easily this December lol.

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12 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm definitely not a BaTB loonie, in fact, I didn't care for it all that much (I gave it 6.5/10).  So this has nothing to do with me not seeing the forest for the trees.  But to ignore what BaTB did on the weekend and then to further ignore what similar films did on their second weekend, is not going to give you a clear picture of what it should make.  It's going to jump north of 175% on Friday and north of 50% on Saturday.  IMO, a 97-105 million weekend seems logical.  

 

For it to drop below 90 means close to a 50% drop and that just isn't happening.  This is not a polarizing film the way BvS and CW were.

This.

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I'm not going to waste my time arguing.  

 

You can book mark this post right here.  I'm pretty sure that BaTB will do something similar to this for the rest of the week...not exactly, but pretty close...

 

Tuesday:  16.8 mill (+25%)

Wed:  11.3 (-33%)

Thurs:  10.6 (-.6%)

Friday:  29 (+175%)

Sat:  45 (+55%)

Sun:  32 (-30%)

 

Of course this could be off a few million for the weekend, but I think these look realistic enough.  If you want to disagree, please do so.  But I'm not going to waste the day arguing with you guys.  

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I don't have the answer to this because Mojo is down, but what is the last Disney family film to finish with less than a 3X?  I'm really curious which one it would be.  And by family film I mean Pixar and their animated films plus this live action stuff based on animated family films.

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15 minutes ago, baumer said:

I'm definitely not a BaTB loonie, in fact, I didn't care for it all that much (I gave it 6.5/10).  So this has nothing to do with me not seeing the forest for the trees.  But to ignore what BaTB did on the weekend and then to further ignore what similar films did on their second weekend, is not going to give you a clear picture of what it should make.  It's going to jump north of 175% on Friday and north of 50% on Saturday.  IMO, a 97-105 million weekend seems logical.  

 

For it to drop below 90 means close to a 50% drop and that just isn't happening.  This is not a polarizing film the way BvS and CW were.

 

But it doesn't even need a crazy bump like 175%+ on Friday to reach your range? How about this:

 

Monday: $13.5m

Tuesday: $16.9m (+25%)

Wednesday: $12.7m (-25%)

Thursday: $12m (-5%)

Friday: $27.6m (+130%)

Saturday: $41.4m (+50%)

Sunday: $29m (-30%)

 

Weekend: $98m (-44%)

 

Seems about right to me?

 

 

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