THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[MrFanaticGuy34]

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

KONG crosses 550. Is at 552.35.

It will add 7-8 dom and 10+ OS, so WW will go over 570.

Seems like Kong: Skull Island has comfortly outgrossed Peter Jackson's King Kong. How many did see that coming?

[drdungbeetle]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

China won't be saving the typical US mid budget either so what exactly is your point?  That they don't matter for US tent poles or won't in a short while?  Not likely.   Also, marketing and it's escalating costs had bigger hand in their demise.

 

The fact remains that China isn't and wont be for the foreseeable future a more important market than the US market.  Not by a long shot.  It's a big factor but then so are the UK and Australia - but those are actually important as well for dramas and comedies coming out of the US. 

 

Deadpool and Suicide Squad didn't open in China  - they still made a lot of money -money a movie like Deadpool might not have made close to if it had changed the film to appeal to China.

Have the UK and Australia ever saved a comedy or drama that underperformed in the US in the last 5 years?

[drdungbeetle]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Seems like Kong: Skull Island has comfortly outgrossed Peter Jackson's King Kong. How many did see that coming?

Plenty of people who believed the Legendary Kaiju series was viable and that it was effectively driven by international grosses.

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

I don't think there will be "China exclusive" blockbuster releases anytime soon, but the days of the US market really dictating content are pretty much ending as we speak. In about 10 years that should be done for, young people in the US don't watch movies at the rate they used to.

In the future you would expect the median per captia to continue to rise in China and stay flat in US so I expect an exclusive big budget release geared toward their citizens isn't far off. 

[drdungbeetle]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

In the future you would expect the median per captia to continue to rise in China and stay flat in US so I expect an exclusive big budget release geared toward their citizens isn't far off. 

US basically has flat consumer spending divided on more things than ever before. Movies are a victim of the fact that US hasn't had healthy growth since the late 90s.

[That One Girl]

10 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I just wish @Neo would come back period. He loved his big predictions but also provided a ton of value to our community. 

 

Predicts

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Seems like Kong: Skull Island has comfortly outgrossed Peter Jackson's King Kong. How many did see that coming?

 

That doesn't mean much if you consider the expansion of China over 12 years.

Remove China and King Kong's WW goes from 550.5 to 538 (550.5-12.6)

Skull Island goes from 573* to 405 (573-168).

 

*final WW is looking at 570-575

[Valonqar]

I just want to congratulate myself on calling GO Over Kong! 

 

[Nova]

For every blockbuster you have that blows up in China, you have ten that just either perform okay, perform poorly or don't even get a release date and yet still perform just fine. China is an important market for films like F8 or Kong but it's not going to be the focal point of blockbusters in the near future. In 10 or 20 years maybe so but not in the immediate future. Not when you've got blockbusters performing just fine without being released there or performing poorly over there and still being okay.

 

 However keep in mind that China also isn't "saving" films like F8 and Kong. You can be assured that the studios behind those types of films release them knowing full well what type of market they've got over there. 

Edited April 16, 2017 by Nova

[Blaze Heatnix]

10 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Seems like Kong: Skull Island has comfortly outgrossed Peter Jackson's King Kong. How many did see that coming?

 

 

Well, to be fair, Jackson's King Kong made 550 million worldwide, and that was 12 years ago and no 3D tickets. I wouldn't say Skull Island has "comfortly outgrossed" Jackson's King Kong.

[TalismanRing]

39 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What's the budget? Haven't seen any report on that. i would guess there is plenty of spectacle based on the amount of IMAX footage. 

 

I'd imagine in the usual WB tent pole range of $170m+

 

Nolan's salary alone is $20m (+20% somewhere on the backend), he paid $5 for a vintage plane to destroy, reconditioned  warrships, had 6,000 extras and he's shot on location for months.

[drdungbeetle]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

Well, to be fair, Jackson's King Kong made 550 million worldwide, and that was 12 years ago and no 3D tickets. I wouldn't say Skull Island has "comfortly outgrossed" Jackson's King Kong.

Skull Island is still playing, and I don't believe in adjusted grosses. If you do that basically no TV show is a success because none of them get the audience share of MASH/Cheers in their prime. Market has changed.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, eXtacy said:

 

Wonder how long China will get away with that. Sort of a grace period to allow growth but cant be like that forever.

 

As long as marketing stay close to free for the studio to release in China under the current deal, it is around a average 21% net return even when your movie underperform with no risk of loosing a significant amount of money if it bomb, not bad at all among intl market.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, drdungbeetle said:

Skull Island is still playing, and I don't believe in adjusted grosses. If you do that basically no TV show is a success because none of them get the audience share of MASH/Cheers in their prime. Market has changed.

I believe in adjusted gross, but i do not only believe in adjusted gross, those factor like home media should also be considered.....

You cannot ignore adjusted gross, 1st Star wars earned $307m back in 1977, and give us a huge cultural impact, I doubt that a $307m film today will give us that impactful effect.....

 

[davincicode1]

14 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

That doesn't mean anything, it could've done $35-$40 million OW, Lone Survivor had Mark Wahlberg. 

Except everyone already KNEW that AS would perform good, everyone predicted at least 100-150 Million in gross (domestic). It over performed but there was no way it would have flopped or failed to cross the 100 Million mark in US.  

 I mean it had Clint as director + military-themed + A-listers as leads + pro-America (intended to attract conservatives) + based on best-selling book + war-invasion etc.

Yeah, Get Out remains as the biggest BO surprise of the year

[drdungbeetle]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I believe in adjusted gross, but i do not only believe in adjusted gross, those factor like home media should also be considered.....

You cannot ignore adjusted gross, 1st Star wars earned $307m back in 1977, and give us a huge cultural impact, I doubt that a $307m film today will give us that impactful effect.....

 

Star Wars was...1977. Nothing in the entire media market today can be compared to something forty years old. You realize that predates the entire commercial videogame industry, don't you?

[baumer]

9 minutes ago, davincicode1 said:

Except everyone already KNEW that AS would perform good, everyone predicted at least 100-150 Million in gross (domestic). It over performed but there was no way it would have flopped or failed to cross the 100 Million mark in US.  

 I mean it had Clint as director + military-themed + A-listers as leads + pro-America (intended to attract conservatives) + based on best-selling book + war-invasion etc.

Yeah, Get Out remains as the biggest BO surprise of the year

 

No one thought American Sniper was going to be anywhere close to what it was. 

 

NO ONE.

 

Read this

 

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/011915.htm

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, baumer said:

 

No one thought American Sniper was going to be anywhere close to what it was. 

 

NO ONE.

Agreed, it was pretty nuts that OW. 

[drdungbeetle]

American Sniper overperformed more than Get Out did. Young black people still watch a lot of movies, a bunch of seventy year old "Trump's America" people literally only care about American Sniper and Fox News.

[somebody85]

$532.4 M globally? Holy shit, well this movie pretty much just made back it's budget in a weekend. I don't know which franchise is bigger for Universal, F&F or JW (curious to see how the second holds).

I mean it's no surprise but 9 is definitely coming and now we know that 7 definitely had a higher debut due to Paul Walkers death. I remember all the memes that weekend from the final scene.