The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, That One Valerian said:

 

Sure but Baywatch is hardly gonna attract anyone on Thursday.  Plus LoT opened on the high end of 38M.  If BW isn't on MT or Pulse by tomorrow then maybe we can start to worry a bit.

 

I agree - Baywatch is not gonna do well Wed night/Thursday...not sure why they moved it, really, since their ads are still not all correct on the new opening date.  

 

And on presales...Snatched weren't very good just 2 weeks ago and that movie kept going up through the weekend.  Mother's Day helped, but the Fandango early presales were awful (saying it had only sold more than Sisters which opened 18 months before to under $14M)...by %s, the movie made 33% more than presales indicated minimum...so for comedies, I don't think they are gonna be as accurate as fan-based franchises...

 

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-king-arthur-bombing-snatched-amy-schumer-box-office-1202088670/

Edited May 22, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

43 minutes ago, That One Valerian said:

 

It's a walkup movie.  It doesn't need huge presales.

You're right that it will be largely walkup based, but I think we're at the point as a culture that a 30 mil ish opening would have shown up in some capacity by now. Especially since it's opening a day earlier than Pirates 

 

Edit: err what Wrath said

 

Edited May 22, 2017 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[The Panda]

Yeah I'm seeing Baywatch as a walk up movie, I'd probably count out the crazy 50m 3-day predicts.  But it's 3-Day could still very easily be in the 30m range.

 

Alien only showed up so early because it's a frontloaded fan-oriented franchise.

Edited May 22, 2017 by The Panda of the Caribbean

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, drdungbeetle said:

Lamewatch won't be getting many of those anyway. Certainly not on a workday and not in a day and age in which even morans can find plenty of nekkid flesh for free online.

 

Look, I get it you think a movie is going to underperform.  But you're being a little obnoxious.

[Biggestgeekever]

MT:

 

1. Alien: Covenant - 23.8%

2. Guardians 2 - 21.7%

3. Pirates 5 - 10.1%

4. Everything, Everything - 5.5%

5. Snatched - 5.3%

 

I think it's a positive sign for Pirates to be there already, especially when today is a holiday in Canada, so Monday BO will be a bit stronger than normal.

[miketheavenger]

I don't understand the people predicting sub-150m total for Pirates 5. It's not gonna drop 40 percent from OST. That's ridiculous. The movie clearly has interest behind it. I do think it will drop, but not by that much.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, narniadis said:

I love how I'm a shill for pirates and transformers.... dude has no clue about me at all lmao. 

 

Users like him are why I have no respect for the newbs. They have no respect for us old timers who created these places they waltz into and try to own. 

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, That One Valerian said:

 

It's a walkup movie.  It doesn't need huge presales.

 

I was going to say, who are these people buying ticket for a baywatch movie days in advance.....

[grim22]

A user was kind enough to provide us presale data, I won't post the actual data here, but here are the basics:

 

Pirates 5 is about 20% higher than Alien:Covenant at the same point before release

Baywatch is half of Bad Moms at the same point before release

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

The Mummy has sold 900 tickets to date

Captain Underpants is about 30% of Lego Batman

 

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

[Arlborn]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

A user was kind enough to provide us presale data, I won't post the actual data here, but here are the basics:

 

Pirates 5 is about 20% higher than Alien:Covenant at the same point before release

Baywatch is half of Bad Moms at the same point before release

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

The Mummy has sold 900 tickets to date

Captain Underpants is about 30% of Lego Batman

 

 

Thank you! This could work long-term and I hope it does but even if it's never given again I'm very thankful anyway!

 

I like the way you put the numbers, truly.

 

 

Edit:

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

 

Wow!

 

Edited May 23, 2017 by Arlborn
Sneaky edit by mod deserved my own edit

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

 

That would translate to a $103.74m OW which I think will go higher. I think it's going to more walk ins than expected.

[Arlborn]

Well, if Wonder Woman keeps the same pre-sale rate as Suicide Squad that puts it on track for 105-110M total but I do believe Wonder Woman will have a bit more walk ups compared to Suicide Squad as I see the audience for it skewing a bit older.

 

Still feeling good about my 115M OW prediction while still realistically hoping for more.

 

Edited May 23, 2017 by Arlborn
Jonwo totally stole my thunder.

[John Marston]

DC movies tend to do good presales. I am still thinking about 90m for WW

[franfar]

I'm waiting for that 140m upset

[Jonwo]

Just now, franfar said:

I'm waiting for that 140m upset

 

It might still happen! 

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

A user was kind enough to provide us presale data, I won't post the actual data here, but here are the basics:

 

Pirates 5 is about 20% higher than Alien:Covenant at the same point before release

Baywatch is half of Bad Moms at the same point before release

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

The Mummy has sold 900 tickets to date

Captain Underpants is about 30% of Lego Batman

 

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

Given how frontloaded Alien was, I'd say that's fine-ish for POTC. I expect it to be a bit walkup friendly.

I've been telling you guys for a solid week now that Baywatch is going to underperform. 

Very good for WW.

Given tickets just went on sale, I'm not judging The Mummy yet.

Ditto for Captain Underpants.

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

A user was kind enough to provide us presale data, I won't post the actual data here, but here are the basics:

 

Pirates 5 is about 20% higher than Alien:Covenant at the same point before release

Baywatch is half of Bad Moms at the same point before release

Wonder Woman is at 78% of Suicide Squad at the same point before release

The Mummy has sold 900 tickets to date

Captain Underpants is about 30% of Lego Batman

 

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

 

Huh...so breaking this down...

Bad Moms had that weird huge Thursday/Friday (which had special tickets or a corporate buy - can't remember) that indicated a high weekend, the weekend then was a kinda letdown, and then it rebounded all through the summer as word of mouth spread...so I have no idea if that's good or bad for Baywatch...but it probably means no huge number...

Pirates 5 being 20% more than Aliens seems like a middling number for the 4 day is coming - nothing catastrophicly low like Alice 2, but nothing atmospheric either...

WW's # seems to indicate that the low end OW numbers are out ($65M tracking) but sky high ones ($130M+) aren't looking great, either...

CU is early and Mummy is earlier, so not much yet to glean, except nothing is a rock star out of the gate...

 

And send thanks to our own Clark Kent...or I guess to be timely, our own Diana Prince!:)

Edited May 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Premium George]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

In terms of pure numbers: Pirates + Baywatch + Mummy + Captain Underpants < Wonder Woman currently.

This is not good for pirates. Thinking my prediction of 115 OW looks good for WW.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

WW's # seems to indicate that the low end OW numbers are out ($65M tracking) but sky high ones ($130M+) aren't looking great, either...

 

You can't predict a OW based on presales since walk ins will be a factor as well.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

You can't predict a OW based on presales since walk ins will be a factor as well.

Keep in mind presales are becoming bigger with the rise of reserved seating. This presale data also has another factor causing more inflation which I don't know if I can say.