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Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

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1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

$103M. If A:C hits only $40M this weekend (or maybe less, judging from EmpireCity's post), I don't see it hitting that. Even with Memorial Day next week, it's facing much more competition than Prometheus. Here was the top 4 in Prometheus's second weekend 

 

TW LW Title (click to view) Studio Weekend Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted P/DW $34,055,474 -43.5% 4,263 +5 $7,989 $119,006,006 $145 2
2 2 Prometheus Fox $20,712,174 -59.4% 3,442 +46 $6,017 $89,370,301 $130 2
3 N Rock of Ages WB (NL) $14,437,269 - 3,470 - $4,161 $14,437,269 $75 1
4 N That's My Boy Sony $13,453,714 - 3,030 - $4,440 $13,453,714 $70 1

 

Yeah. Even though Mem Day weekend can up the legs by a small amount depending on genre, reception etc. it won't help A:C approach PTHEUS's 2.5x.

With 41 ow it needs 2.5x to match IDR. And with 39 ow it would need 2.64x.

Despite Mem Day weekend A:C could end up an O/U 95 affair...which if the 97 budget is accurate, is still fine. Still looking at doing 3x the budget WW.

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http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-everything-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

 

1.). Alien: Covenant (FOX), 3,761 theaters / $15.2M Fri. (includes $4.2M previews)/ 3-day cume: $39M$40M/ Wk 1

2.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 4,347 theaters (0)/ $8.7M Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $33.6M (-48%)/Total: $300.3M/ Wk 3

3.). Everything, Everything (WB/MGM), 2,801 theaters / $4.6M Fri. (includes $525K previews)/ 3-day cume: $11.7M/ Wk 1

4.). Snatched (FOX), 3,511 theaters (+10) / $2.25M Fri. (-55%)/ 3-day cume: $7.5M (-62%)/ Total:$32.6M/ Wk 2

5.). Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (FOX), 3,157 theaters / $2M Fri. (includes $150K previews)/ 3-day cume: $7.1M/ Wk 1

6.). King Arthur (WB/VR), 3,702 theaters / $1.9M Fri. (-63%)/ 3-day cume: $6.35M (-58%)/Total:$26.7M/ Wk 2

7/8) Beauty And The Beast (DIS) 1,792 (-380), $750K (-28%)/3-day: $3.1M (-34%)/Total: $498.5M/Wk 10

The Fate Of The Furious (UNI), 2,287 theaters (-780) / $807K Fri. (-41%) / 3-day cume: $3.1M (-42%) / Total cume: $219.9m / Wk 6

9.) The Boss Baby (Fox) 2,071 (-840), $592K (-39%)/3-day: $2.7M (-39%)/Total: $166M/Wk 8

10). How To Be A Latin Lover (PANT/LG), 948 theaters (-175) / $435K Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $1.8M (-53%)/ Total: $29M/Wk 4

11.). Lowriders (OTL), 365 theaters (+70) / $279K Fri. (-69%) / 3-day cume: $954K (-60%)/Total: $4M/Wk 2

 

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GOTG2 went from 8M early FRI to 8.7M!

 

CIVIL WAR was 8.6M and did 32.9 over the 3rd weekend.

GOTG2 could do 34 I think.

Edited by a2knet
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1 minute ago, a2knet said:

UPDATED, Saturday 12:12AM: This weekend belongs to 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which at this time is expected to pull in $39M-$40M after an industry estimated $15.2M Friday.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-everything-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

 

So 11M true Friday, maybe a 25% increase tomorrow (doubtful since it is rated R and is not exactly getting great word of mouth) and a 30% drop on Sunday, so 4.2, 11, 13.75, 9.5 for around 38-39M in the end.

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8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

UPDATED, Saturday 12:12AM: This weekend belongs to 20th Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant which at this time is expected to pull in $39M-$40M after an industry estimated $15.2M Friday.

http://deadline.com/2017/05/alien-covenant-diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-everything-everything-box-office-previews-1202097673/

 

@DeeCee

XGEmRU9.gif

 

My summer game now has a small chance of success. Provided A:C has some really ugly drops.

 

So it's not really going to succeed.

 

Current path to success is if it drops the same amount Prometheus did on it's Saturday then has a ~30% drop on Sunday. Which gets like 34.5M or something. Then Guardians does well or something and does more than that.

Edited by aabattery
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6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

So 11M true Friday, maybe a 25% increase tomorrow (doubtful since it is rated R and is not exactly getting great word of mouth) and a 30% drop on Sunday, so 4.2, 11, 13.75, 9.5 for around 38-39M in the end.

Seems about right to me.

 

For Guardians 2, I would say 8.7 + 15.2(+75%) + 10.1 (-33%) = $34M for the weekend. 

Edited by Biggestgeekever
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Much better from GotG, that's more in line with what I expected.

 

Last weekend's multiplier would put it just a hair below 35m (34.8 or so).

 

I actually expect A:C to stay flat tomorrow vs true Friday, a small 5% at best. So

 

4.2+11+12+9 = 36.2

 

The GOTG threepeat club will still fail, but it will be close enough to make it a game.

Edited by Celedhring
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3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

If this behaves like Prometheus, which I'm thinking it will, I'd peg this at a 36M weekend.

36m is what I went with in my club.  After the Australian opening I think I had the broad range as $35-40m.  I may have been to optimistic with GOTG2. 

 

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1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

36m is what I went with in my club.  After the Australian opening I think I had the broad range as $35-40m.  I may have been to optimistic with GOTG2. 

 

 

Yeah, I don't think it has quite enough fuel in the tank to get over the last couple of million to beat A:C.

 

It'll be damn close though. Moral victory to us. Hopefully.

Edited by aabattery
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GOTG2 vs CW

Weekend #1 146.5 vs 179.1

Weekend #2 65.2 vs 72.6

Weekend #3 34 vs 32.9

 

CW added 61 more (1.85 * 32.9) to it's cume after the 3rd weekend.

GOTG2 will be on 301+ if the 3rd weekend is ~34. If it has same legs as CW and adds 1.85 * 34 to the cume, will get to 365.

But no reason why it should not do better than CW going by the current trend.

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33 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

36m is what I went with in my club.  After the Australian opening I think I had the broad range as $35-40m.  I may have been to optimistic with GOTG2. 

 

 

Your club isn't dead yet.  Friday - previews for AC looks like 11 versus Prometheus which was 17.9 (21.466-3.56).  Points to AC being more front loaded.  And Prometheus' Saturday dropped from Friday - previews.  If AC follows that pattern it could go as low as 33-34

Edited by wileECoyote
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