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WrathOfHan

Weekend Actuals (Page 130): Cars 53.7M | Wonder Woman 41.3M | All Eyez 26.4M | Mummy 14.5M | 47 Meters 11.2M | POTC 9M | Rough Night 8M

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And amusingly, even though it's for little boys and I have 2 in the age range, they have had zero interest in it, even though they've watched Cars 1 and 2, Planes (god help me, that was bad), and their absolute favorite, Maters Tall Tales (that one, 300 times)...and I own every character car there is...

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13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I pretty much agree with this. My Derby is looking good, especially with most people lowballing CU :) 

You lookin aight 

Derby based on the 4 releases at 62 30 11 7

Out of 40

2 newbies in the lead. 

1        damnitgeorge08    38.95
2        nomyth    36.90
3        Exxdee    35.98
4        Matrix4You    35.57
5        WrathOfHan    35.49
6        Bates    34.15
7        The Fast and the Furiosa    34.01
8        Fancyarcher    33.78
9        Rolling Thunder    33.77
10        TalismanRing    33.58
11        aabattery    33.44
12        POTUS    32.69
13        Derby Average    32.13

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Just now, CJohn said:

Just checked, no preview/midnight numbers were reported for Notorious.

 

That's still completely irrelevant to the All Eyez on Me preview number. 3.1 million is a significant number. Now if you guys think that it's going to be front-loaded and do 25 million then you could be right. I don't think you will be and I think you're reading way too much into it being his birthday today and so on. I don't really care all that much and it would be better for my summer game if it doesn't gross that much. But black movies that are aimed at black audiences are always underestimated and underappreciated at this site. It wouldn't surprise me if this was another film that fell into that category.

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Just now, Mojoguy said:


Pixar doesn't care, they are dumping Cars 3 in theaters just for the merchandise and toy sales.

Using the words Pixar and dumped in the same sentence is pretty silly in my opinion.

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Just now, baumer said:

 

That's still completely irrelevant to the All Eyez on Me preview number. 3.1 million is a significant number. Now if you guys think that it's going to be front-loaded and do 25 million then you could be right. I don't think you will be and I think you're reading way too much into it being his birthday today and so on. I don't really care all that much and it would be better for my summer game if it doesn't gross that much. But black movies that are aimed at black audiences are always underestimated and underappreciated at this site. It wouldn't surprise me if this was another film that fell into that category.

Pretty much this. 

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  1. Hidden Figures (technically a 2016 release but was only in 25 theaters till second week of Jan 2017 so gonna include it. Makes my list cooler.)
  2. Get Out
  3. Bat Lego
  4. Skull Island
  5. Boss Baby
  6. POTC5 (looks on track for 160-162)
  7. Cars3 (very likely if it opens high 50s)

...are the 160-180 dom grossers so far. Impressive all of them falling in that range. POTC5 sticks out as an under-performer though unlike the rest.

TF5 could be added to the list. We will know soon.

Edited by a2knet
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4 minutes ago, POTUS said:

You lookin aight 

Derby based on the 4 releases at 62 30 11 7

Out of 40

2 newbies in the lead. 

1        damnitgeorge08    38.95
2        nomyth    36.90
3        Exxdee    35.98
4        Matrix4You    35.57
5        WrathOfHan    35.49
6        Bates    34.15
7        The Fast and the Furiosa    34.01
8        Fancyarcher    33.78
9        Rolling Thunder    33.77
10        TalismanRing    33.58
11        aabattery    33.44
12        POTUS    32.69
13        Derby Average    32.13

Eh I'll take it. That's a huge Eyez number 

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9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Would it help?  This is a 2 quadrant movie for little boys and their dads...it's really got the perfect weekend for it (start of summer, Father's Day weekend, etc).  Whatever OW BO it gets this weekend was not gonna be higher on any other weekend...

DM3 will give it a 50%+ 3rd weekend drop after a 2nd weekend drop which won't be pretty:

Even Captain Underpants a non-sequel and opening on non-inflated weekend (in fact WONDR would have taken away some dough) fell 49% in the 2nd weekend.

So give 55% 2nd weekend drop to Cars3 as a three-quel and an FD Sunday inflated OW.

Then DM3 the following weekend.

 

Edited by a2knet
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3 minutes ago, a2knet said:
  1. Hidden Figures (technically a 2016 release but was only in 25 theaters till second week of Jan 2017 so gonna include it. Makes my list cooler.)
  2. Get Out
  3. Bat Lego
  4. Skull Island
  5. Boss Baby
  6. POTC5 (looks on track for 160)
  7. Cars3 (very likely)

...are the 160-180 dom grossers so far. Impressive all of them falling in that range. POTC5 sticks out as an under-performer though unlike the rest.

TF5 could be added to the list. We will know soon.

 

TF5 would be lucky to even be in that range...

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9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Previews only came into effect after 2012 with the Dark Knight Rises shooting. Before that midnights were not only a thing they were massive. Where are you guys getting this that there were no previews in 2009? Midnight's were way bigger than previews are now. Every movie had Midnight's back in the day.

Well, nothing was reported for Notorious. Midnights were big for event movies. Notorious wasn't an event movie.

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18 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Notorious had good audience reception too.

 

So.... why are you using that movie as a comparison instead of using something like Straight Out of Compton? I just don't understand where you guys are coming from.

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7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Well, nothing was reported for Notorious. Midnights were big for event movies. Notorious wasn't an event movie.

 

Okay like I said it's  irrelevant. It's a big preview number for all eyes on me and I think that would translate into a north of 30 million opening weekend.

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12 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:


Pixar doesn't care, they are dumping Cars 3 in theaters just for the merchandise and toy sales.

Disney always plants their flag on the same weekends:

 

1st weekend of May - MCU

Memorial Day Weekend - action/adventure

Father's Day weekend - Pixar film

Thanksgiving weekend - animated movie

 

They've now added a Live Action film in the Spring, and sometimes an early November release, but those four have been consistent for the past few years.  

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As per 47 Em Down, I'm thinking the ending of the movie might have audiences kind of angry about it. For those who have seen it you'll probably end up agreeing with me perhaps.

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Quote

 

for Cars3: Minions (3rd in a series, so-so to decent reviews) did 18.7x

for rough night: bad moms (r rated, female) did 11.9x

for Tupac: straight outta compton did 12.1x

for 47 meters down: the shallows did 12.7x

 

 

Source:https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=423978#ixzz4kBLTb42f 

 

Minions had a normal Sunday (-20%) so Father's Day could help Cars3 20x+ opposed to 19x. Also gut says Cars3 above average reception will be better than Minions.

If not more, than at least 20x+/56m+ ow seems like a safe bet for C3.

Edited by a2knet
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