June 23-25 Weekend Thread | TF5 45M, Cars 3 24.0, Wonder Woman 24.9 (10th highest 4th weekend of all time and biggest 4th weekend of 2017)

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Tell us your estimated Wonder woman's final total. If you want to.

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Tell us your estimated Wonder woman's final total. If you want to.

no idea....i go by theater count drops.  I already changed 47 Meters. 

[dxmatrixdt]

 

Transformers - Monday night opening to Sun

Revenge of the Fallen - Weds to Sunday

Dark of the Moon - Tuesday night opening to Sun

Age of Extinction - Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon, Tues

 

The Last Knight - Weds to Sunday

Edited June 27, 2017 by Matrix4You

[dxmatrixdt]

[dxmatrixdt]

I corrected Wonder Woman, but i think Cars can go higher

[dxmatrixdt]

is my excel freezing anything up???  Please let me know, I am happy to make it smaller.

[MCKillswitch123]

Top 10 films of Summer '17 so far (and by so far I'm gonna say up until June 25th, since Monday's numbers aren't out yet):

 

01. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - 380.2M

02. Wonder Woman - 318.1M

03. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - 160.2M

04. Cars 3 - 98.8M

05. Alien: Covenant - 73.3M

06. The Mummy - 68.7M

07. Transformers: The Last Knight - 68.5M

08. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie - 65.7M

09. Baywatch - 56.7M

10. Snatched - 45.6M

TOTAL: 1.335.8B

 

The top 10 of last year's Summer from June 26th 2016 (was a Sunday too, like June 25th this year):

 

01. Captain America: Civil War - 403.9M

02. Finding Dory - 286.3M

03. X-Men: Apocalypse - 151.1M

04. The Angry Birds Movie - 104.9M

05. The Conjuring 2 - 86.9M

06. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows - 77.2M

07. Alice Through The Looking Glass - 74.3M

08. Central Intelligence - 69.2M

09. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 54.9M

10. Now You See Me 2 - 52M

TOTAL: 1.360.7B

 

Yeah, 2017 is trailing behind 2016, but actually not by the staggering difference that one would think by now. Wonder Woman is probably the big difference maker (although Finding Dory evened things out for 2016). Let's see if 2017 gets another big jumpstart w/Spider-Man and Despicable Me.

 

And if we directly compare June 25th 2016 w/2017, 2016's total would be 1.327.5B (though it would be unfair to give 2016 a Sunday less). Which is encouraging for this year's prospects in a way.

Edited June 27, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[a2k]

5 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

 

Transformers - Monday night opening to Sun

Revenge of the Fallen - Weds to Sunday

Dark of the Moon - Tuesday night opening to Sun

Age of Extinction - Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon, Tues

 

The Last Knight - Weds to Sunday

 

Thanks for making that chart (and all your other great charts).

 

I think 2.2x/150 even though the high-end scenario, is possible considering how less front-loaded Wed and Thu were due to late release date change, while 135-145 seems realistic.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

I corrected Wonder Woman, but i think Cars can go higher

 

-Cars 20% Thu drop seems fair considering DM3 previews. Could do better but at least 15% drop I think.

150 dom is not a lock. 57% drop this weekend (for 10.3) will give it  ~122.3 cume. 27.7 away from 150.

 

-POTC will be on 166 if it has a 2.9 weekend using your weekdays. That's 46% down from last weekend and seems reasonable as DM3 is opening. 175 seems just out of reach. If it can do 35% drop for 3.5 weekend, 175 would be possible.

 

 

[KeepItU25071906]

Asking for much smarter people than me) Could we wait for smaller drops on this Monday? Summer finally came in here?

Edited June 27, 2017 by KeepItU25071906

[teardropmina]

drop wise, I'm guessing TLK>WW>C3 

Cars might be stronger than WW on weekdays still, WW is getting ahead in the weekend. 

[dxmatrixdt]

43 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Thanks for making that chart (and all your other great charts).

 

I think 2.2x/150 even though the high-end scenario, is possible considering how less front-loaded Wed and Thu were due to late release date change, while 135-145 seems realistic.

I am going to track Transformers every single day until it hits 150.  The only reason why it would not hit 150 is because each year theaters are getting better at fully optimizing screens and getting rid of new releases.  Even if it is performing respectable through July, each tentpole + 2 new releases will kill its legs.  It is like in December when Passengers, Assassins Creed, and Sing came out on the Wednesday after Rogue One.  Passengers got 2 screens per theater and all the stuff from November went bye bye even though they were all making decent averages and could have cashed in extra during the December holiday.

[dxmatrixdt]

39 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

-Cars 20% Thu drop seems fair considering DM3 previews. Could do better but at least 15% drop I think.

 

 

 

 

It probably will drop 15% max.  It will probably make most of its money during the afternoon.  Looking at comparisons, the Pixar ones dont drop that bad on Thursday the day of a new animated tentpole.  Also, looking at comparisons should have Cars 3 dropping 50% for Monday.  It would be an excellent Mon/Mon hold.  I just don't have enough date to be more accurate.  I would like to know if the % of schools out increased alot from Monday to Monday.  I figured last Monday was maxxed out so animated movies should start seeing consistent holds for the rest of the summer.

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Top 10 films of Summer '17 so far (and by so far I'm gonna say up until June 25th, since Monday's numbers aren't out yet):

 

01. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - 380.2M

02. Wonder Woman - 318.1M

03. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - 160.2M

04. Cars 3 - 98.8M

05. Alien: Covenant - 73.3M

06. The Mummy - 68.7M

07. Transformers: The Last Knight - 68.5M

08. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie - 65.7M

09. Baywatch - 56.7M

10. Snatched - 45.6M

TOTAL: 1.335.8B

 

The top 10 of last year's Summer from June 26th 2016 (was a Sunday too, like June 25th this year):

 

01. Captain America: Civil War - 403.9M

02. Finding Dory - 286.3M

03. X-Men: Apocalypse - 151.1M

04. The Angry Birds Movie - 104.9M

05. The Conjuring 2 - 86.9M

06. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows - 77.2M

07. Alice Through The Looking Glass - 74.3M

08. Central Intelligence - 69.2M

09. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 54.9M

10. Now You See Me 2 - 52M

TOTAL: 1.360.7B

 

Yeah, 2017 is trailing behind 2016, but actually not by the staggering difference that one would think by now. Wonder Woman is probably the big difference maker (although Finding Dory evened things out for 2016). Let's see if 2017 gets another big jumpstart w/Spider-Man and Despicable Me.

 

And if we directly compare June 25th 2016 w/2017, 2016's total would be 1.327.5B (though it would be unfair to give 2016 a Sunday less). Which is encouraging for this year's prospects in a way.

don't worry, dunkirk, apes, homecoming will help to catch up

[lab276]

Last summer wasn't that great either though. So far 2017 is trailing 2013 (the current best summer in dollars), by about $300m.