Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[cannastop]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

It's tracking along SS in NYC Thur Previews as of yesterday and I can't see it being as front loaded as that (with it's T Mobile free tickets just for Thur) at 6.52x  But even if it was more front loaded than that it would look  to do over $120m unless it's just massively over performing in NYC and other locations.

It would make sense if it's overperforming in NYC, considering the setting.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, cannastop said:

It would make sense if it's overperforming in NYC, considering the setting.

 

Yes but it's performing similarly in Langer's area (Birmingham, if I recall) and also Philadelphia which is being tracked.

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, PRESIDENT BKB said:

 

People don't need to purchase tickets for this in advance like this is a rock concert or something.. This will perform like every other MARVEL movie released with a mad rush on the weekend with Saturday being absolutely HUGE and Sunday evening out.. This is going to make ALOT of $$$$$, but purchasing tickets like I said isn't necessary and especially when they'll have it playing on a bunch of screens..

I'm of the opinion that this should be outselling WW in presales given the much larger fan base and established nature of the character. It's Spider-Man - and Iron Man! But there's another school of thought that says what you just did, so we shall see.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Cmasterclay

[langer]

29 minutes ago, cookie said:

I think it was @langer who said it was tracking similarly to Suicide Squad in his area.

 

yes it's having the same # of Thursday and Friday screens as Suicide Squad.  These are the movies I've been tracking.  Keep in mind Birmingham AL is a small area.

 

[CJohn]

It is shaping up to be a certified fresh weekend

Tomato Law. His Power.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, PRESIDENT BKB said:

In the day and age where we have theatres with 15-20 Screens with a blockbuster showing on the hour, by the hour, that purchasing tickets for a movie in advance isn't necessary and is really only used to generate hype for the movie.. Hell, even for The FORCE AWAKENS, I didn't have to purchase advance tickets and merely walked up to the window and yet, it still made what it did with or without the use of advance tickets.. To me, it's simply used as a marketing gimmick..

Uhhhh no. If anything, presales have become even more necessary with the rise of reserved seating.

[a2k]

12-13 previews for SPID6 seem legit.

8.75-9.25 multi off the previews gives 105-120.25 ow. 

WONDR did 9.38x the previews. DR STRANGE did 9.0x the previews.

Edited July 6, 2017 by a2knet

[Cmasterclay]

I actually can see it being the kind of movie that underperforms in D.C. - the theaters I track there probably have the most "liberal" audience of any few theaters in the entire country, so WW might have had an angle there. But South Florida matches NYC's demographics closer than anywhere in America so I don't get that one. Miami actually usually matches Atlanta the closest in terms of patterns so I'll check the A later. 

 

It's at 45 percent of Guardians 2 according to Grim, numbers backed up by what I'm seeing. In my areas, the sales are pretty much exactly where Fantastic Beasts was. Not exactly thrilling. But I guess the question is this: Does it perform like an origin story that's the first in a new franchise, ala Doctor Strange or Ant-Man? Or does it perform like an established sequel that has a relatively strong IM, like The Winter Soldier or Guardians 2? If it's the former, I see about 105. If it's the latter, I think it does about TASM2 numbers this weekend. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Uhhhh no. If anything, presales have become even more necessary with the rise of reserved seating.

That's a bingo!

[YM!]

Here's the thing Homecoming vs Wonder Woman. Wonder Woman in a way has a deflated OW due to the NBA finals on OD thanks to previews being an important part of OD. When final presales tracking said WW was at 82% of SS, which should have been a $110M OW.

[YM!]

Just now, PRESIDENT BKB said:

 

If you say so dude.. I still think this is going to be a massive walk up type of movie this weekend and presales won't matter 1 way or another, but we'll see..

BKB overpredicting an MCU movie. Shocking.

Spoiler

That being said I can see this having good walkups. Like great walkups just not $120M+ great.

 

[Cmasterclay]

Whether presales are necessary or not is irrelevant anyway. We have data from presales for superhero movies released one month and two months ago. Presale habits have not changed since then. They're valid comparisons. 

[DAR]

114 million opening on its way to 403 million

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Uhhhh no. If anything, presales have become even more necessary with the rise of reserved seating.

I wonder when Regal is going to get with the program.

[Brainbug]

Just now, DAR said:

114 million opening on its way to 403 million

 

A multiplier near identically to GotG will be tough with that much competition...i think Apes will do 75M+ OW, that will affect the second weekend. But i would love to see that!

 

 

[That One Girl]

Is it too late for this?

 

too bad

 

[Cmasterclay]

Guys that number DAR posted is the original Spider-Man numbers I don't think we should debate it as a legit prediction lol. It's not gonna perform like it's 2002 (or Wonder Woman). 

[Cochofles]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Is it too late for this?

 

too bad

 

 

 

Where is our parking lot report???

[grey ghost]

This is gonna play out like a mini Jurrassic World.

 

With the same preview multiplier that's 135 m OW for SMH. 

 

Lock that shit up. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

 

 

Where is our parking lot report???

 

Do NYC theaters have parking lots?