Thursday Numbers: AC:$2.54M | DUNKIRK:$1.21M | TNJ:$0.85M | EM:$0.81M | SMH:$0.69M

[Finnick]

DUNKIRK WITH A BETTER HOLD THAN LAST THURSDAY, THE WEEKEND LOOKING AT 33% DOWN AT WORST!!!

A:C DOWN 10% from yesterday,

GIRLS TRIP ENTERS THE $100M club, First comedy to do it this year!!

 

	Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Annabelle: Creation	Warner Bros.	$2,543,557	-11%	3,502	$726	$48,544,221	7
2	(2)	Dunkirk	Warner Bros.	$1,206,397	-5%	3,762	$321	$158,808,079	28
3	(3)	The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature	Open Road	$849,978	-4%	4,003	$212	$12,583,645	7
4	(4)	The Emoji Movie	Sony Pictures	$814,371	-3%	3,219	$253	$67,417,352	21
5	(6)	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony Pictures	$694,085	-7%	2,607	$266	$309,801,381	42
-	(5)	The Dark Tower	Sony Pictures	$680,642	-15%	3,451	$197	$37,884,378	14
-	(7)	Girls Trip	Universal	$644,205	-6%	2,303	$280	$100,142,145	28
-	(9)	Atomic Blonde	Focus Features	$436,615	-18%	2,093	$209	$44,978,855	21
-	(10)	Kidnap	Aviron Pictures	$428,252	-13%	2,418	$177	$21,565,683	14
-	(11)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$405,540	-5%	2,013	$201	$249,700,520	49
-	(12)	War for the Planet of the Apes	20th Century Fox	$311,557	-15%	2,098	$149	$138,947,203	35
-	(13)	Detroit	Annapurna Pictures	$246,850	-20%	3,007	$82	$14,668,463	21
-	(14)	Baby Driver	Sony Pictures	$152,416	-18%	865	$176	$100,833,441	51
-	(15)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$142,367	-17%	961	$148	$402,908,376	77
-	(-)	Valerian and the City of a …	STX Entertainment	$84,101	-18%	785	$107	$38,830,728	28
-	(-)	An Inconvenient Sequel	Paramount Vantage	$79,912	-14%	556	$144	$2,693,649	21
-	(-)	Wind River	Weinstein Co.	$53,820	-20%	45	$1,196	$1,113,269	14
-	(-)	Step	Fox Searchlight	$34,750	-8%	185	$188	$604,253	14
-	(-)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$25,853	n/c	255	$101	$129,928,855	58
-	(-)	Captain Underpants: The Fir…	20th Century Fox	$23,794	-3%	178	$134	$73,246,341	77

Edited August 18, 2017 by Finnick

[MrPink]

A little over 5% drop. Good shot at making to 166m or so by end of weekend.

[the beast]

1 minute ago, Finnick said:

 

 

 

Thats a 5% decrease

[redfirebird2008]

Very solid hold for Dunkirk. Cruising past Star Trek Beyond's domestic total on Friday, despite Trek outgrossing Dunkirk by $8.74m on opening weekend. Pretty good run by Dunkirk.

Edited August 18, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[the beast]

BoxOfficeReport.com‏ @BORReport  20m20 minutes ago

More

Annabelle: Creation grossed an estimated $2.55M on Thursday. 7-Day total stands at $48.55M.

 

Edited August 18, 2017 by the beast

[the beast]

Just now, the beast said:

BoxOfficeReport.com‏ @BORReport  20m20 minutes ago

More

Annabelle: Creation grossed an estimated $2.55M on Thursday. 7-Day total stands at $48.55M.

 

A 10.3% Decrease

[redfirebird2008]

BOM has also updated Dunkirk's overseas total from $210m to $218.1m through Thursday. So the worldwide total is $376.9m through Thursday. Should be in the neighborhood of $395m after the weekend.

[WrathOfHan]

Good hold for Dunkirk. I had it dropping 31%, so hopefully I'm close

[MrPink]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

BOM has also updated Dunkirk's overseas total from $210m to $218.1m through Thursday. So the worldwide total is $376.9m through Thursday. Should be in the neighborhood of $395m after the weekend.

 

Looks like it's gonna need around 50-60m from China to have a shot at 500m WW. Nolan is gonna be having a chat with Wu Jing, director/star of Wolf Warriors 2 during the promotion of Dunkirk in China apparently. That savvy businessman 

Edited August 18, 2017 by MrPink

[Valonqar]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Looks like it's gonna need around 50-60m from China to have a shot at 500m WW. Nolan is gonna be having a chat with Wu Jing, director/star of Wolf Warriors 2 during the promotion of Dunkirk in China apparently. That savvy businessman 

Nolan should direct Wolf Warriors 3. 2b just from China! 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Looks like it's gonna need around 50-60m from China to have a shot at 500m WW. Nolan is gonna be having a chat with Wu Jing, director/star of Wolf Warriors 2 during the promotion of Dunkirk in China apparently. That savvy businessman 

 

I don't think it needs that kind of money in China to reach $500m worldwide.

 

Should gross around another $30m domestic and at least another $30m from current overseas markets. That puts it at around $437m excluding China, Japan, Greece, and Italy. At $50m in China, you are saying the other three would only gross $13m combined. At $60m in China, you are saying the other three would only gross $3m combined. The second scenario in particular seems extremely pessimistic.

[Brainbug]

Annabelle will loop past 100M WW this weekend. It could crash now and would still be a big success.

[MrPink]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I don't think it needs that kind of money in China to reach $500m worldwide.

 

Should gross around another $30m domestic and at least another $30m from current overseas markets. That puts it at around $437m excluding China, Japan, Greece, and Italy. At $50m in China, you are saying the other three would only gross $13m combined. At $60m in China, you are saying the other three would only gross $3m combined. The second scenario in particular seems extremely pessimistic.

 

I have it doing about another 25 or so from OS, and let's say another 30m domestic. Japan, Greece, and Italy did about 6-7m for Hacksaw Ridge, which I'm putting as say a low end. But I'm not being that specific either, just using broader ranges

Edited August 18, 2017 by MrPink

[bruchav]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Annabelle will loop past 100M WW this weekend. It could crash now and would still be a big success.

According to Screen Daily, Annabelle 2 already made $53.6m OS, With Thursday's domestic numbers Annabelle 2 is already at $102.1m worldwide and will open in Latin America this weekend (Latin America was the largest international market for The Conjuring 2), Annabelle 2 will make over $200m + easily.

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I have it doing about another 25 or so from OS, and let's say another 30m domestic. Japan, Greece, and Italy did about 6-7m for Hacksaw Ridge, which I'm putting as say a low end. But I'm not being that specific either, just using broader ranges

 

So you expect it to collapse in the current overseas markets. Monday-Thursday it grossed $8.1m overseas and $5.6m domestic. That's about 41% domestic and 59% overseas. You are projecting the rest of the run to be 54.5% domestic and 45.5% overseas for the current markets.

[MrPink]

15 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So you expect it to collapse in the current overseas markets. Monday-Thursday it grossed $8.1m overseas and $5.6m domestic. That's about 41% domestic and 59% overseas. You are projecting the rest of the run to be 54.5% domestic and 45.5% overseas for the current markets.

 

I think they revised the international number to 210.5 on Monday, so it was more like 7.6 overseas and 5.6 DOM

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2017W32&id=chrisnolan2017.htm

 

But also, Europe is going through a Summer period in August, my understanding is that most kids are out of school in August which is probably inflating the weekday share of OS a little bit. I don't know when specifically that ends, but I will assume come September, things are gonna slow for it very quickly. The other part of Dunkirk's run that will proportionally help the DOM share is Labor Day weekend.

 

General rule of thumb I do is this, whatever it made in the previous weekend is roughly where it ends up over the next week. So if Dunkirk did about 16 million OS last weekend, I expect it to be around 226 million on Sunday. Keep doing that, and it ends up roughly another 25m OS. But it's not like I'm some OS expert either.

Edited August 18, 2017 by MrPink

[Mockingjay Raphael]

15 minutes ago, bruchav said:

According to Screen Daily, Annabelle 2 already made $53.6m OS, With Thursday's domestic numbers Annabelle 2 is already at $102.1m worldwide and will open in Latin America this weekend (Latin America was the largest international market for The Conjuring 2), Annabelle 2 will make over $200m + easily.

Lol, $200m has been locked since last week, the goal here is $300m WW.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Annabelle is looking like it will have an O/U 60% drop this weekend, anything under 60% put $100m on track again. 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Mockingjay Raphael

[redfirebird2008]

14 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

I think they revised the international number to 210.5 on Monday, so it was more like 7.6 overseas and 5.6 DOM

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2017W32&id=chrisnolan2017.htm

 

But also, Europe is going through a Summer period in August, my understanding is that most kids are out of school in August which is probably inflating the weekday share of OS a little bit. I don't know when specifically that ends, but I will assume come September, things are gonna slow for it very quickly. The other part of Dunkirk's run that will proportionally help the DOM share is Labor Day weekend.

 

General rule of thumb I do is this, whatever it made in the previous weekend is roughly where it ends up over the next week. So if Dunkirk did about 16 million OS last weekend, I expect it to be around 226 million on Sunday. Keep doing that, and it ends up roughly another 25m OS.

 

I was already being pretty conservative with the 50/50 split going forward. We'll see how it goes.

[MrPink]

17 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I was already being pretty conservative with the 50/50 split going forward. We'll see how it goes.

 

I mean, maybe I'm being too pessimistic, I don't know. Like I said, I'm no OS expert. I care more about 500m WW than 200m DOM so I hope it happens