BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[George Parr]

Weekend estimates:

 

#1 DM3 225k (+5%)

#2 Apes3 157.5k (-27% / -33% with previews)

#3 Grießnockerlaffäre 145k (+13% / +8% with previews)

#4 Ostwind 3 142.5k (+7%)

#5 Dark Tower 137.5k

#6 Emoji 120k (+4%)

#7 Dunkirk 92.5k (-17%)

#8 Valerian 85k (-23%)

#9 Das Pubertier 67.5k (+4%)

#10 Baby Driver 52.5k (-9%)

#11 Spiderman 37.5k (-23%)

Edited August 14, 2017 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

In Austria, Grießnockerlaffäre was nr1 for the weekend

[Brainbug]

The Emoji Movie increases. I am ashamed of my country

[efialtes76]

54 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

The Emoji Movie increases. I am ashamed of my country

Emoji opened at number 1 in my country...

[Giesi]

What do you guys think of Fack Ju Göhte 3's boxoffice potential? The teaser has collected 3,7M YouTube views in less than 3 days and that's just from 2 main channels. I think the hype cooled down a bit compared to the 2nd part, but I think 5M adm should be possible! TLJ is safe for its yearly crown. 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Giesi said:

What do you guys think of Fack Ju Göhte 3's boxoffice potential? The teaser has collected 3,7M YouTube views in less than 3 days and that's just from 2 main channels. I think the hype cooled down a bit compared to the 2nd part, but I think 5M adm should be possible! TLJ is safe for its yearly crown. 

 

I also think it will decrease, but still be a big success. The first two have built somewhat of a large fan base (for german movie standards) but it will need to offer a really interesting or exciting hook. The first one was a word of mouth-suprise and the sequel was the anticipated sequel to it. To be honest, i cant really tell how excited the students and teens are for a 2nd sequel. Many people that i know liked the first one, but the second one not too much.

[IndustriousAngel]

MarkG from insidekino.de posted those numbers - those are the Rita Falk crime comedies, admissions after 11 days (=2 full weekends + weekdays between):

 

122.608 Dampfnudelblues (1)
197.137 Winterkartoffelknödel (2)
240.697 Schweinskopf al dente (3)
345.952 Grießnockerlaffäre  (4)

 

Obviously they hit some sweet spot ... but as with every franchise, there's more and more frontloading as witnessed by the rather similar totals:

 

516.045 Dampfnudelblues (1)
567.243 Winterkartoffelknödel (2)
548.204 Schweinskopf al dente (3)

Edited August 14, 2017 by IndustriousAngel

[marveldcfox]

How much has Valerian grossed so far in USD?

[George Parr]

17 hours ago, Giesi said:

What do you guys think of Fack Ju Göhte 3's boxoffice potential? The teaser has collected 3,7M YouTube views in less than 3 days and that's just from 2 main channels. I think the hype cooled down a bit compared to the 2nd part, but I think 5M adm should be possible! TLJ is safe for its yearly crown. 

I'm surprised there has been so little marketing for it. One 1 minute teaser two months prior to release is not a whole lot.

Apparently the the teaser worked well at the 'Kölner Filmmesse', and Mark G is openly wondering whether the movie might hit the 7m mark again. I wouldn't say that it is impossible, after all, the second one beat out the first, though with this little marketing so far I wouldn't want to make a bet in either direction. I wouldn't be so sure of TLJ winning the year yet, at least not in terms of admissions. In Euro it should be a landslide.

 

12 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

How much has Valerian grossed so far in USD?

You'd have to check US-sources for that. We don't even have the current Euro-number. Going by the admissions, and taking the admissions-to-Euro ratio from the last known number, it should be somewhere around $11.3m or so, maybe a bit less.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Despicable Me 3	230.107	762	302	3.973.851	32.991.855	+8	6
2	Planet of the Apes 3	157.752	630	250	480.162	5.411.870	-27	2
3	Grießnockerlaffäre	143.910	175	822	345.952	2.729.914	+13	2
4	Ostwind 3	141.990	717	198	689.728	4.647.576	+7	3
5	The Dark Tower	137.521	506	272	137.521	1.216.588	-	1
6	Emoji	120.504	534	226	308.706	2.295.737	+4	2
7	Dunkirk	91.645	495	185	556.370	4.945.649	-18	3
8	Valerian	85.062	493	173	874.098	9.643.740	-24	4
9	Das Pubertier	67.452	585	115	724.918	5.631.277	+4	6
10	Baby Driver	53.659	397	135	304.798	2.493.064	-8	3
11	Spider-Man : Homecoming	38.618	361	107	923.823	9.344.227	-22	5
12	Ce qui nous lie	32.222	90	358	42.950	342.727	-	1
13	Viceroy's House	32.142	96	335	38.448	325.971	-	1
14	The Party	19.354	135	143	98.617	773.105	-1	3
15	Wish Upon	18.393	180	102	107.202	896.224	-16	3
16	Die göttliche Ordnung	16.068	91	177	47.541	362.278	-1	2
17	Pirates of the Caribbean 5	14.742	172	86	2.621.850	27.496.413	-2	12
18	Alibi.com	14.132	298	47	83.215	595.183	-53	2
19	Un Profil Pour Deux	12.093	75	161	235.067	1.728.221	+43	8
20	Paris Can Wait	11.676	121	96	107.472	906.333	+15	5

 

Rather strong overall weekend, with a lot of increases - the only thing missing is a strong opener, The Dark Tower is near flop territory. Despicable Me 3 is near 4mil total (in fact already should have passed it by now), and Grießnockerlaffäre still has an excellent PTA (slight expansion this weekend but the PTA went up - cool!) - it will become the highest grosser of the franchise by a margin!

Next weekend: Again, a rather empty slot, the biggest opener and new #1 should be Bully Herbig's Bullyparade - adapted from his successful TV show, this comes a few years too late I guess - 10 years ago this would have been a candidate for a 1mil OW, now I see it landing somewhere near 500k admissions. Still a very good number for a german production but a big step down after the success of the show takeouts Schuh des Manitu and Traumschiff Surprise. As to smaller releases: With Bigfoot Junior, there comes a little competition for DM3 and Emoji.

[IndustriousAngel]

17 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

How much has Valerian grossed so far in USD?

Including Sunday it was near 11,3mil US$ using the number from insidekino.de and an exchange rate of 1,17

[miketheavenger]

It's sad that Bully's humor just doesn't seem to be popular anymore. From today's standpoint it's insane that Schuh des Manitu and Traumschiff Surprise were such huge blockbusters (even though they were really good), but 10-15 years ago Bully was by far the most successful german film maker. But times change for everybody, I guess.

[Aristis]

I have the feeling that FJG3 will make at least 6M admissions again (#finalfack).

 

For the yearly crown that's a bit complicated. If SW VIII would drop like TH2 it could still do about 8M admissions. However TH1 was a bit disappointing (in comparison to HDR) while SW VII did great in comparison to other SW-movies, so... A drop like SW II would give it still about 6M.

[Aristis]

There are numbers for the first half of the year!

It is OK, the big movies should start in the second half of 2017. 60,2M admissions (up 4,9% from 2016, down 10% from 2015)

 

Good News:

• More screens and two more Cities that have a Theater!
• Better than 2016 or 2014 (Bad years so that's not too good...)

Bad News:

• Extremely high TP (up 2,7% from the last year...)
• Very bad for German movies... Lowest since 2004

Second best year in €. I don't know if that is too good with admissions being that low and TP that high...

 

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000
Admissions	60,2	57,4	66,8	56,2	62,7	62,3	61,5	60,2	64,9	61,0	60,0	65,0	60,3	72,3	71,3	80,4	79,7	74,3
€	518,7	481,8	545,0	449,9	496,3	462,7	452,3	441,9	421,4	372,4	364,2	383,9	352,6	419,6	414,0	474,0	442,1	4050
TicketPrice	8,62	8,39	8,16	8,01	7,92	7,42	7,36	7,34	6,49	6,10	6,07	5,90	5,84	5,80	5,81	5,89	5,55	5,45
Cities	892	890	890	894	904	913	941	957	985	1.015	1.024	1.027	1.008	1.038	1.058	1.047	1.041	1.071
Screens	4.761	4.693	4.638	4.605	4.607	4.596	4.647	4.673	4.749	4.824	4.832	4.828	4.875	4.847	4.868	4.825	4.738	4.734
%	18,0	26,7	26,9	31,6	26,8	20,9	20,4	20,3	25,4	33,9	19,6	20,0	19,0	13,2	17,1	13,1	13,0	15,3
% 3D	23,1	22,0	15,7	21,6	22,6	17,0	19,8	21,7

 

InsideKino

[IndustriousAngel]

Those ticket prices catched my eye, too ... wrong direction in my opinion, theaters generate more income from concession than tickets so cheaper prices / more admissions would seem like a better deal.

 

As to the weekend, Bullyparade is opening a lot higher than the latest wide releases in Austria (shold do even better in Germany). No big deal since nearly every single would-be blockbuster was a disappointment this summer but by now we're relishing every bit of good news

[George Parr]

I think the German market share will look much better by the end of the year. So far the biggest German movie has been Bibi & Tina 3, which had about 1.6m admissions, followed by a bunch of movies in the 700k range. With Bullyparade and Fack ju Göhte 3, there are two movies that should easily combine for 8-10 million. Not to mention that Das Pubertier, Ostwind 3 and Grießnockerlaffäre are all part of the second half as well, with the first two currently being in 3rd and 4th place among German movies, with Grießnockerlaffäre quickly catching up as well. In other words, the first half only had three German movies topping 500k, the second half should have at least six, with far more high-end potential as well.

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de - 500k opening for Bullyparade and horrible drops for holdovers (no other release >100k admissions)

[IndustriousAngel]

second estimates not much different, but DM3 is a bit up - 95k for the weekend, maybe it can still make it to 100k!

[Aristis]

3rd Trend:
 

Bully 500k

DM3 105k -54% (it has passed 4M and will probably be around 4,15M admissions, enough to hit 4,5M)

Apes 3 85k -46% (maybe around 600k, so sad )

Grießnockerl 75k -48%

Bigfoot 75k

Dark Tower 70k -49%

Ostwind 65 -54%

Emoji -50%

Dunkirk 47,5k -48%

Valerian 45k -47% (around 940k after Sunday, will hit 1M, which is good after its bad OW )

BD 32,5k -40%

Pubertier 32,5k -51%

Edited August 20, 2017 by Aristis

[miketheavenger]

I saw Bullyparade today and it was really funny. A return to form for Bully & co.. Will hopefully have strong word-of-mouth.