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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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Monday numbers:

 

DM3 460/2590 (-32%)
Valerian 227,5 Again a bit better for Valerian! Maybe I can dream of 1M+ again... :)
SM:H 157,5/557,5 (-47%)
Pubertier 85/355 (-13%)
TF5 37,5/1115 (-46%)
Baywatch 37,5/1840 (-26%)
POTC5 35/2525 (-26%)

Edited by Aristis
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36 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Valerian 227,5 Again a bit better for Valerian! Maybe I can dream of 1M+ again... :)

 

Will be difficult, but going with how the weekend developed, I see some strong weekdays and less weather influence than for most summer releases.

 

To get a margin where it might land, some original SciFi releases from the past years:

Jupiter Ascending's 2,9 multiplier would mean about 680k total (worst case scenario)

Guardians of the Galaxy's 3,9 multiplier would bring it to nearly 900k (most probable)

And finally, Insterstellar's 4,5 multilplier would take it over the million - that's about the best scenario I can see. So, realistic? no, but possilble - yes :)

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DM3 should definately take over as most successful movie of the year sometime in August. Right now Fifty Shades of Grey 2 is still on top with 3.43m admissions, after both Furios 8 (3.23m) and Beauty and the Beast (3.37m) failed to get past it.

 

I'd think the only movies to get past DM3 after it takes the top spot should be Fack ju Göthe 3 in October and Star Wars in December, unless the Bullyparade movie really gains traction, which I don't think will happen. It should be somewhat successful, but the hype over Bully ended a long time ago.

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Despicable Me 3

462.009

763

606

2.592.248

22.157.623

-32

3

2

Valerian

228.011

576

396

228.011

2.659.352

-

1

3

Spider-Man  Homecoming

156.221

622

251

555.857

5.805.995

-48

2

4

Das Pubertier

84.295

449

188

355.206

2.830.272

-14

3

5

Transformers 5

38.501

379

102

1.115.306

12.805.387

-45

5

6

Baywatch

37.671

360

105

1.846.521

15.349.421

-26

8

7

Pirates of the Caribbean 5

35.918

333

108

2.525.905

26.557.667

-24

9

8

Rough Night

23.997

376

64

355.943

2.939.753

-44

4

9

Paris can wait

15.490

90

172

44.458

387.263

-23

2

10

Wonder Woman

15.373

234

66

737.849

7.822.083

-39

6

11

Gifted

11.288

123

92

49.634

347.480

-26

2

12

The Mummy

10.538

173

61

657.838

7.101.961

-34

7

13

Hanni & Nanni

10.430

301

35

346.868

2.180.998

+6

9

14

Il a déjà tes yeux

8.828

185

48

49.185

341.173

-47

2

15

Miss Sloane

8.683

90

96

62.986

477.020

-25

3

16

Un Profil Pour Deux

8.367

162

52

184.978

1.369.405

-39

5

17

Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4

7.131

314

23

295.839

1.873.519

-6

8

18

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns

6.222

53

117

3.671.256

29.313.309

-11

38

19

The Beautiful Fantastic

5.685

99

57

85.118

633.719

-3

6

20

Weit - Die Geschichte …

5.580

77

72

97.220

755.039

-9

7

 

 

 

Overall a bad weekend with harder drops than expected, and Valerian's mediocre opening couldn't save it. Both Despicable Me 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 5 have now sailed past 2,5mil admissions total. Spider-Man had the worst drop, not a good sign.

 

 

 

Next weekend: A fight between three very different openers - the serious Dunkirk , the YA horse-girl adaption Ostwind 3, and Baby Driver - Edgar Wright has a bit of a cult status by now, but I guess Ostwind 3 will have the edge, Ostwind 2 had a near 300k OW, and I can't see Baby Driver nor Dunkirk do that much. Despicable Me 3 should see a 4th weekend on top!

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Despicable Me 3

462.009

763

606

2.592.248

22.157.623

-32

3

2

Valerian

228.011

576

396

228.011

2.659.352

-

1

3

Spider-Man  Homecoming

156.221

622

251

555.857

5.805.995

-48

2

4

Das Pubertier

84.295

449

188

355.206

2.830.272

-14

3

5

Transformers 5

38.501

379

102

1.115.306

12.805.387

-45

5

6

Baywatch

37.671

360

105

1.846.521

15.349.421

-26

8

7

Pirates of the Caribbean 5

35.918

333

108

2.525.905

26.557.667

-24

9

8

Rough Night

23.997

376

64

355.943

2.939.753

-44

4

9

Paris can wait

15.490

90

172

44.458

387.263

-23

2

10

Wonder Woman

15.373

234

66

737.849

7.822.083

-39

6

11

Gifted

11.288

123

92

49.634

347.480

-26

2

12

The Mummy

10.538

173

61

657.838

7.101.961

-34

7

13

Hanni & Nanni

10.430

301

35

346.868

2.180.998

+6

9

14

Il a déjà tes yeux

8.828

185

48

49.185

341.173

-47

2

15

Miss Sloane

8.683

90

96

62.986

477.020

-25

3

16

Un Profil Pour Deux

8.367

162

52

184.978

1.369.405

-39

5

17

Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4

7.131

314

23

295.839

1.873.519

-6

8

18

Willkommen bei den Hartmanns

6.222

53

117

3.671.256

29.313.309

-11

38

19

The Beautiful Fantastic

5.685

99

57

85.118

633.719

-3

6

20

Weit - Die Geschichte …

5.580

77

72

97.220

755.039

-9

7

 

 

 

Overall a bad weekend with harder drops than expected, and Valerian's mediocre opening couldn't save it. Both Despicable Me 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 5 have now sailed past 2,5mil admissions total. Spider-Man had the worst drop, not a good sign.

 

 

 

Next weekend: A fight between three very different openers - the serious Dunkirk , the YA horse-girl adaption Ostwind 3, and Baby Driver - Edgar Wright has a bit of a cult status by now, but I guess Ostwind 3 will have the edge, Ostwind 2 had a near 300k OW, and I can't see Baby Driver nor Dunkirk do that much. Despicable Me 3 should see a 4th weekend on top!

but but....you said Valerian has good wom and is expected to do 10+. I know it isn't enough but still better than Tarzan, Jupiter Ascending etc.

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24 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

but but....you said Valerian has good wom and is expected to do 10+. I know it isn't enough but still better than Tarzan, Jupiter Ascending etc.

it should do more than 10mil, that's pretty sure. As mentioned, Germany tends to have good multipliers, and the OW was already a bit more than 3mil US$

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4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Dunkirk is selling really well at my theater, Baby Driver...not so much.

I must agree, Baby Driver's presales are nothing special, but it's been a bit under the radar - Dunkirk is the movie the press are talking about, and reviewing. But Baby Driver will get far more walk-in business I guess

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Just now, marveldcfox said:

I have a bad feeling that Dunkirk + BD combo will hurt Valerian a lot this weekend. 

 

I think so. Valerian had the biggest screen (690 seats) at my theater last weekend and Dunkirk will occupie that. The smaller auditoriums for Valerian sold next to nothing, its a film that only works on a really big screen. 

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Finally I'm able to post again. First it took me a day to notice that "Crank" is the name of the movie and not the hero ;). And then I couldn't write and still can't from my ordinary laptop.

I think Valerian will be hurt by Dunkirk, but not that much. As mentioned here in the thread its WOM isn't bad at all. From what I heard, several moviegoers said it was a nice surprise to them. For example today the reservations for Valerian look really good in the Munich theaters, better than on its release day (ok, the constant rain helps too). Its weekdays numbers should be fine when added. As from tomorrow Valerian will keep the second biggest cinema halls in mathäser, Cinemaxx and partly Cineplex e.g., in smaller towns Dunkirk will hurt probably more screenwise.

All of a sudden the bookings and reservations for Dunkirk look indeed promising. I have the feeling that happens more and more often, I mean that moviegoers seem not to care till a few days before the release. Or the WW success caused more interest. And the official reviews go from 7 to 10/10 which will also help a lot.
Baby Driver is doing ok so far but not overwhelming. Reviews are also very good here.
If the weather stays so terrible as it was/is yesterday and today - at least in the eastern parts of Germany - then the weekend will become pleasant anyway both for the new releases and the holdovers. So far it's predicted to stay mostly cold and cloudy till Saturday and maybe the bad weather last a bit longer. Fingers crossed.

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Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

New Releases (many films with glowing reviews and the admission numbers  - if they hold - look also good, almost too good):

Ostwind 3: 7.5k evening only (released in 580 theaters, good reviews)
Dunkirk: 69k (465, very good reviews) - hopefully this is true
Baby Driver: 22.5k (358, very good reviews)
Wish Upon: 5.5k (175, very mixed reviews between 2 and 7/10)
The Party: 4.5k (120, very good reviews)
Sie nannten ihn Spencer: ?k (a documentary about Bud Spencer, the Bud Spencer and Terence Hill films are still pretty popular here, 200 theaters but not with constant showtimes, good review, very good WOM)

Holdovers:

DM3: 22.5k evening only (90k whole day last Thursday)
Valerian: 42.5k (45k)
Spider-Man: Homecoming: 17k (35k)
Das Pubertier: 15.5 (17.5k)
Transformers 5: 4.5k (7k)
Baywatch: 4.5k (?)

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well, going by Thursday numbers, Baby Driver is the loser of the weekend. It's difficlult to predict but I'd say Dunkirk and Ostwind 3 are about head-to-head but below 300k, Valerian and Pubertier have good holds - with DM3 on top, this means we have at least five strong releases and I hope Baby Driver will end up with >100k, too - overall, we can expect a very satisfying weekend!

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, going by Thursday numbers, Baby Driver is the loser of the weekend. It's difficlult to predict but I'd say Dunkirk and Ostwind 3 are about head-to-head but below 300k, Valerian and Pubertier have good holds - with DM3 on top, this means we have at least five strong releases and I hope Baby Driver will end up with >100k, too - overall, we can expect a very satisfying weekend!

Such a shame for BD. Worse than Rough Night. So disgusting that people would watch that crap over a classic movie. #ByeFelicia to those losers.

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