BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[LexJoker]

ugh ... if the 2nd trend holds true, this is shaping up to become one ugly ugly weekend

 

#1: A2 - 210k (-65%)

#2: The Longest Ride - 100k (-40%)

#3: FF7 - 70k (-65%)

#4: TB-NB - 50k (-70%)

Is the weather sunny or what?

[IndustriousAngel]

weather is maybe a bit better than last weekend but not extraordinary; I guess it's just that we come from an inflated holiday weekend. Add to that not a single wide opener and we got empty cinemas.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last wekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Avengers 2	222.256	500	445	1.808.227	-62	3
2	The Longest Ride	98.322	481	204	325.996	-40	2
3	Fast & Furious 7	78.590	589	133	3.965.335	-60	6
4	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	61.893	455	136	265.950	-64	2
5	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	48.026	566	85	588.530	-61	5
6	Der Nanny	35.718	494	72	1.549.933	-56	7
7	The Babadook	28.403	93	305	41.869	---	1
8	Shaun the Sheep	24.389	703	35	1.615.310	-73	8
9	Run All Night	22.302	392	57	256.603	-57	4
10	A Little Chaos	19.177	93	206	68.290	-46	2
11	Ex Machina	17.305	135	128	115.385	-45	3
12	The Gunman	16.729	332	50	102.249	-67	2
13	Home	15.446	481	32	628.221	-66	7
14	Die abhandene Welt	14.980	86	174	16.765	---	1
15	The Water Diviner	12.450	114	109	12.736	---	1
16	Halbe Brüder	11.349	238	48	244.045	-64	5
17	Honig im Kopf	10.297	323	32	6.828.966	-52	20
18	Get Hard	9.352	54	173	10.684	---	1
19	Fünf Freunde 4	8.658	163	53	970.271	-34	15
20	Big Eyes	7.931	132	60	85.662	-64	3

 

There's no positive thing about last weekend with the single exception of "The Babadook". With openers that weak, let's rather look at holdovers: "Honig im Kopf" still over 10k admissions in week 20, nearing 6.9mil admissions. FF7 is dropping hard but 4mil are toast by now. And a few weeks ago I mentioned how "Fünf Freunde 4" would be the first in the franchise to miss the million mark - well, we're at 970k now and it's still selling some seats every week and there's still some holidays coming so I guess my obituary was somewhat premature.

 

Next weekend:

After the extremely narrow lineup this week, next weekend has attractive openers galore: Girl-horse-story "Ostwind 2" should open to well over 100k (part 1 had nearly 900k total); "Mad Max 4" is the big question mark (the franchise is not much talked-about here) but 200-300k should be possible. And "Pitch Perfect 2" tackles the female crowd, the first one made over 1mil admissions total, so an opening in the, again, 200-300k range seems possible. Depending on how hard Avengers get hit by MM4, they might drop to #4. What seems sure is that we will see a much stronger weekend with something for everyone; the slump was just one week!

[IndustriousAngel]

... going by my cinema, PP2 will be in front despite MM4 playing the bigger screens.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

... going by my cinema, PP2 will be in front despite MM4 playing the bigger screens.

Amazing! What you expect to the OW in $?

[el sid]

That's what I heard from several cinemas in Germany too. But in my cinema, MM4 is leading.

Both movies have solid but not overwhelming advance ticket sales so far.

 

PP2 gets ok reviews here, MM4 very good ones. I only hope that they will translate into higher ticket sales than it looks so far. I don't think MM4 will do bad over the weeks, but I would be surprised if it is able to achieve the first prediction of 1.6M admissions. More like 1M would be my guess.

[IndustriousAngel]

Amazing! What you expect to the OW in $?

3mil seem a good guess (with last year's € might have been 4).

 

In Austria, MM4 got very good reviews in quality papers as well as yellow press - let's see, I just don't sense any excitement. My son's 24 and he and his friends didn't know fuck about the franchise as a whole and accordingly don't much care about MM4, that's why I'm concerned.

[el sid]

It doesn't look bad for PP2 and MM4 here. As always, these numbers are no exact numbers but very good estimates (for Thursday only - no preview numbers added).

 

PP2 is in front with around 120T admissions

MM4 had around 80T

 

This Thursday is a holiday. Tomorrow is a normal workingday, but many use it as a bridge day.

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend trend on insidekino.de:

 

#1: PP2 - 425k admissions (thats more than 30% higher than PP1's opening - really nice surprise!)

#2: Ostwind2 - 275k - wow, even bigger surprise here, that's far more than double what the first one opened to.

#3: MM4 - 250k - better than I feared

#4: A2 - 175k - a 20% drop is very good considering the good opening of MM4 (of course, it's a long weekend as ElSid mentioned)

 

A2 crosses 2mil admissions this weekend, FF7 already crossed 4mil during weekdays.

Ostwind2 is the most surprising number for me, let's see if this estimate holds - wIth teen sequels, there's always the possibility of extreme frontloadedness.

Edited May 15, 2015 by IndustriousAngel

[picores]

How much dollars are 1mil admissions?

[juni78ukr]

Ostwind 2 is doing very strong. Would like to see it as well as the first one.

[IndustriousAngel]

How much dollars are 1mil admissions?

well, obviously that depends on ticket prices. For family stuff (Ostwind2) you can maybe set 1 ticket = 8 US$ (younger stuff even cheaper but O2 is more teens than kids) ; for 2D maybe 10US$; 3D 13US$ per ticket or more (Hobbit 3 made about 74mil US$ from nearly 6,1mil admissions; with last year's exchange rates that might have been close to 90mil)

 

concerning the current weekend, obviously MM4 will be in front of Ostwind2 money-wise; the 3D share is high (most theaters limiting the 2D option to afternoon shows). The 275k admissions for Ostwind2 might result in something like 2,4mil US$ (in fact, probably more like 2,3) while MM4's 250k should result in more than 2,8mil US$.

[picores]

well, obviously that depends on ticket prices. For family stuff (Ostwind2) you can maybe set 1 ticket = 8 US$ (younger stuff even cheaper but O2 is more teens than kids) ; for 2D maybe 10US$; 3D 13US$ per ticket or more (Hobbit 3 made about 74mil US$ from nearly 6,1mil admissions; with last year's exchange rates that might have been close to 90mil)

 

concerning the current weekend, obviously MM4 will be in front of Ostwind2 money-wise; the 3D share is high (most theaters limiting the 2D option to afternoon shows). The 275k admissions for Ostwind2 might result in something like 2,4mil US$ (in fact, probably more like 2,3) while MM4's 250k should result in more than 2,8mil US$.

 

Thanks! Hope Mad Max can crawl to 1m admissions thanks to WOM.

[Rthmessiah]

Atm PP2 running about 65% ahead of MMFR

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top10 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total	drop	week
1	Pitch Perfect 2	394.309	551	716	445.405	-	1
2	Ostwind 2	291.110	486	599	296.283	-	1
3	Mad Max 4	229.525	742	309	229.525	-	1
4	Avengers 2	187.188	586	319	2.070.957	-16	4
5	The Longest Ride	84.758	542	156	451.640	-14	3
6	Tinkerbell / Neverbeast	74.240	657	113	352.357	+20	3
7	Fast & Furious 7	69.150	397	174	4.058.621	-12	7
8	Paul Blart Mall Cop 2	55.457	389	143	654.932	+15	6
9	Shaun the Sheep	34.752	540	64	1.656.155	+42	9
10	The Babadook	32.328	143	226	84985	+14	2

 

Three fine openings, and beautiful drops resp. increases! Both PP2 and Ostwind2 opened much higher than the predecessors. MM4 did ok too, the franchise was never big here and that's a fine number.

 

Next weekend:

Disney seem reluctant to market "Tomorrowland"; it even got a strange new title for the dubbed release ("A World Beyond" - yep, they gave it a different but still english title for the german release … can't say that I can fathom the thinking behind it but who am I). I would be surprised if it can reach 200k admissions but it's not impossible with 400+ cinemas. Teen comedy "Abschlussfahrt" should be able to do about what other domestic teen comedies did, so 100k admissions seem possible.

The nr.1 will, without any doubt, be PP2 again.

[IndustriousAngel]

and here's the first weekend trend from insidekino.de:

#1: PP2 - 300k admissions (-25%)

#2: MM4 - 175k (-25%)

#3: Ostwind2 - 150k (-50%, very frontloaded but ahead of pt1)

#4: Tomorrowland - 125k , even worse than expected.

#5: A2 - 90k (-50%)

#6: Abschussfahrt - 90k, expected number

[juni78ukr]

Could anyone suggest a translation for Abschussfahrt? 

[efialtes76]

Could anyone suggest a translation for Abschussfahrt? 

Launch Ride.

[LexJoker]

FF7 was a monster here. Almost twice the admissions of AOU.

[IndustriousAngel]

2nd trend not much different, some releases a bit lower (Tomorrowland just barely crossing 100k)