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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone on Tuesday, earning ¥5,003,281,600 with 3,814,261 admissions, on its 54th day in release.

Mission: Impossible - Box-Office History
mission-impossible-logo-450x174.png

¥9.70 billion - Mission: Impossible II
¥6.50 billion - Mission: Impossible
¥5.38 billion - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
¥5.15 billion - Mission: Impossible III
¥5.00 billion - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation [54 Days in Release]

Rogue Nation is the fifth-consecutive film in the Mission: Impossible franchise to achieve blockbuster status, trailing only Harry Potter with the most blockbuster entries:

# of Blockbuster Entries/Overall Entries - Franchise

8/8 (100%) - Harry Potter
5/5 (100%) - Mission: Impossible
4/4 (100%) - Bayside Shakedown
4/4 (100%) - Jurassic Park
4/4 (100%) - Pirates of the Caribbean
4/6 (67%) - Star Wars
3/3 (100%) - Back to the Future
3/3 (100%) - The Lord of the Rings
3/3 (100%) - The Matrix
3/4 (75%) - Umizaru
3/5 (60%) - Spider-Man
3/18 (17%) - Pokemon
3+
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I'm glad MI5 crossed 5b yen. That's the 5th Hollywood movie that did it this year (including BH6). The most since 2006 (also 5 movies), when MI3 was released. Meanwhile, MI4 was the only Hollywood movies above 5b in 2012. The last three Mission Impossible movies are amazingly reliable, box office-wise.

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Weekend Forecast (10/03-04)

165247_1.jpg

01 (--) ¥270,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥270,000,000 ($2.3 million), Bakuman (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥177,000,000 ($1.5 million), -24%, ¥1,480,000,000 ($12.0 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 3
03 (02) ¥95,000,000 ($790,000), -41%, ¥1,260,000,000 ($10.6 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 3
04 (03) ¥92,000,000 ($770,000), -33%, ¥960,000,000 ($8.0 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 3
05 (06) ¥90,000,000 ($750,000), +16%, ¥9,000,000,000 ($73.6 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 9
06 (04) ¥81,000,000 ($675,000), -34%, ¥1,980,000,000 ($16.5 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 5
07 (05) ¥77,000,000 ($640,000), -29%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.3 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 3
08 (--) ¥70,000,000 ($580,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($580,000), Arpeggio of Blue Steel - Ars Nova Cadenza (Showgate) NEW
09 (06) ¥53,000,000 ($440,000), -30%, ¥950,000,000 ($7.9 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 4
10 (--) ¥50,000,000 ($420,000), 0, ¥50,000,000 ($420,000), Fathers and Daughters (Gaga) NEW

>Bakuman is on track for an easy weekend victory, and should see a debut high enough to guarantee it becoming another ¥1 billion earner this year. If it can open a bit closer to ¥300 million, or actually reach the mark over the weekend, perhaps it'll be a future ¥2 billion earner.

>Jurassic World is receiving 4DX showings this weekend, and as a result, its pre-sales are up significantly compared to last Saturday. And it they're any indication of the upcoming weekend frame, it'll likely see a weekend increase. I might be conservative with my increase, so don't be surprised if it earns over ¥100 million. Also, it's a lock to surpass Big Hero 6, in gross, as the biggest film of the year now.

The bottom half of the Top 10, positions 8-10 in particular, will be interesting to watch over the weekend as there are 8 films that could fill those positions. There's a ¥40-60 million range that most, if not all of them, are likely to land in.

>Arpeggio of Blue Steel is the one I feel most confident about opening in the Top 10. The first one earned about ¥40 million in its debut on half-as-many screens, so I really doubt the second film does less than that figure based on that fact alone. Also, its pre-sales are quite strong.

>Fathers and Daughters has mediocre pre-sales, though that's not surprising considering its target audience. It should have fair walk-up business, so I'm predicting it'll manage a Top 10 debut.

>The Empire of Corpses is doing fine at the usual locations, but 75% of its overall theater count is accounted for at them, so it won't come in much higher. It's a Top 10 candidate, though I see it missing with a 11/12th place debut.

>Then there are several holdovers that are also in contention, including Ted 2, Kingsman, and Bee of the Sky. And even Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation could resurface in the Top 10 with the addition of 4DX showings boosting its pre-sales.
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I'm glad MI5 crossed 5b yen. That's the 5th Hollywood movie that did it this year (including BH6). The most since 2006 (also 5 movies), when MI3 was released. Meanwhile, MI4 was the only Hollywood movies above 5b in 2012. The last three Mission Impossible movies are amazingly reliable, box office-wise.

How much MI5 without such strong competitor like Jurassic World could collect?

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How much MI5 without such strong competitor like Jurassic World could collect?

 

I don't know. I expected 5-5.5b yen, so it's actually pretty much in line with my expectation. But without competitions I think it could have opened bigger and reached 6b (around $50m) or close to it. This summer was crowded with 5-10b potential grossers IO, Minions, The Boy and the Beast, Hero 2, Attack on Titan, JW, MI5 all released within a month. As a result, IO was crushed and the others could have made more (except maybe Attack on Titan because its quality killed itself).

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Weekend Actuals (10/03-04)

165247_2.jpg
©2015映画「バクマン。」製作委員会

01 (--) ¥251,607,900 ($2.10 million), 0, ¥251,607,900 ($2.10 million), Bakuman (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥178,309,700 ($1.49 million), -23%, ¥1,504,266,530 ($12.2 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 3
03 (02) ¥99,317,400 ($828,000), -38%, ¥1,267,660,200 ($10.8 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 3
04 (03) ¥81,537,500 ($679,000), -41%, ¥966,845,400 ($8.1 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 3
05 (05) ¥77,892,350 ($649,000), -28%, ¥653,695,850 ($5.4 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 3
06 (04) ¥74,634,300 ($622,000), -39%, ¥2,000,205,400 ($16.7 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 5
07 (--) ¥67,525,150 ($563,000), 0, ¥67,525,150 ($563,000), Arpeggio of Blue Steel - Ars Nova Cadenza (Showgate) NEW
08 (06) ¥51,622,500 ($430,000), -33%, ¥8,958,884,000 ($73.4 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 9
09 (07) ¥46,323,400 ($386,000), -31%, ¥749,894,400 ($6.3 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 4
10 (06) ¥45,303,200 ($378,000), -41%, ¥938,470,200 ($7.8 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 4

>Bakuman, the live-action adaptation of the popular manga/anime series, debuts atop the box-office over the first weekend of October.

The film, starring Takeru Satoh and Ryunosuke Kamiki in the lead roles, sold 184,263 tickets across 325 screens over the weekend. The opening is decent, in-line with expectations, and fair for an October release, which is one of the weakest months of the year (June being the other). It'll have little trouble achieving the ¥1 billion milestone, and should be able to exceed ¥1.5 billion ($12 million+) as well.

>No Longer Heroine remains strong over its third weekend, selling an additional 148,356 tickets. Warner Bros.'s live-action adaptation of the shojo manga is well on its way to reaching the ¥2 billion milestone, and will likely become their biggest release of 2015.

>Arpeggio of Blue Steel - Ars Nova Cadenza was the only other weekend opener to make the top 10, and of the other candidates, it did so on the fewest screens.

The second Arpeggio of Blue Steel film sold 42,170 tickets on just 60 screens in its opening weekend, resulting in an extremely high avg. ticket price of ¥1,601. That's a good 5% higher than a typical 3D/Imax release with a favorable share in the premium formats.

>Jurassic World didn't hold on as well, or increase, as I was anticipating with the addition of 4DX showings, but is still hanging in there in its ninth weekend of release. It's on the cusp of reaching the ¥9 billion milestone and should do so before the upcoming weekend. The film is also within 1,000 admissions of hitting 6 million admissions.

>Outside the Top 10 - The Empire of Corpses came in 13th over the weekend in its debut on 72 screens, while Fathers and Daughters settled for a 14th place debut on 118 screens.

________

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Usual Locations - Saturday Seating [Theaters/Showings] (43% of Market)

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10/10
Seats (% change) [Theaters/Showings], Film (Week of Release)
280,375 (---) [144/738], Library Wars: The Last Mission (NEW)
154,378 (---) [147/724], Fantastic Four (NEW)

145,452 (-49%) [140/655], Bakuman (Week 2)
108,603 (---) [126/570], The Intern (NEW)
93,664 (---) [129/538], Gamba & His Friends (NEW)

92,534 (-33%) [137/480], No Longer Heroine (Week 4)
69,641 (-49%) [142/500], Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Week 4)
42,862 (-44%) [144/312], Ant-Man (Week 4)
34,719 (-31%) [83/227], The Anthem of the Heart (Week 4)
33,757 (-46%) [139/240], Unfair: The End (Week 6)
31,661 (---) [45/138], The Laws of the Universe - Part 0 (NEW)
30,016 (---) [58/220], Teacher and Stray Cat (NEW)

26,492 (-37%) [135/156], Jurassic World (Week 10)
23,913 (-50%) [38/132], Arpeggio of Blue Steel - Ars Nova Cadenza (Week 2)
23,210 (-49%) [136/149], Pixels (Week 5)
23,198 (-40%) [113/152], Kingsman: The Secret Service (Week 5)
23,157 (-47%) [138/161], Bee of the Sky (Week 5)
22,095 (-59%) [61/169], Fathers and Daughters (Week 2)
16,736 (-03%) [134/136], S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Week 7)
16,470 (-72%) [53/132], The Empire of Corpses (Week 2)
12,786 (-37%) [91/83], Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Week 11)
11,349 (-35%) [89/83], The Boy and the Beast (Week 14)
10,630 (---) [19/80], Little Witch Academia (NEW)
10,066 (-71%) [69/71], Ted 2 (Week 7)
9,736 (-64%) [43/78], Journey to the Shore (Week 2)

>Library Wars: The Last Mission is the second live-action adaptation of Hiro Arikawa's light novel series based on the Statement on Intellectual Freedom in Libraries, that went into effect in Japan in 1954 before being amended in 1979. The light novels are quite successful, and have spawned not only two live-action films, but also adaptations in nearly every other medium, including anime and manga releases.

The first film, released in April 2013, opened to ¥216.8 million (and finished with ¥1.72 billion), so the second film should be aiming for a debut above that figure, but probably not significantly higher.

>Fantastic Four will likely disappoint, I'm thinking a sub-¥200 million weekend, and possibly debut in third place or lower. The mediocre seating/showtime count is an indication that theaters are aware of this fact, too.

>The Intern is receiving a wider release than I was expecting and online signs are decent. I'd consider a debut above ¥100 million a success, and that's looking doable at the moment.

>And finally, the potential darkhorse of the weekend, is Gamba & His Friends.

It's the first Gamba film since 1991, and this new CGI 3D film has had a very long production, 10+ years, and carries a very high budget of ¥2 billion (3x the average budget). The budget can certainly be seen in the footage, but with a budget that high, it better hope for the best over the weekend.
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Weekend Forecast (10/10-11)

166836_1.jpg
©2015“Library Wars -LM-“Movie Project"

01 (--) ¥300,000,000 ($2.5 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.5 million), Library Wars: The Last Mission (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥151,000,000 ($1.3 million), -40%, ¥580,000,000 ($4.8 million), Bakuman (Toho) Week 2
03 (--) ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥140,000,000 ($1.2 million), The Intern (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (02) ¥123,000,000 ($1.0 million), -31%, ¥1,770,000,000 ($14.8 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 4
05 (--) ¥85,000,000 ($710,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($960,000), Fantastic Four (Fox) NEW
06 (--) ¥70,000,000 ($585,000), 0, ¥70,000,000 ($585,000), Gamba & His Friends (Toei) NEW
07 (03) ¥63,000,000 ($525,000), -37%, ¥1,410,000,000 ($11.8 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 4
08 (05) ¥53,000,000 ($440,000), -32%, ¥760,000,000 ($6.3 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 4
09 (04) ¥51,000,000 ($425,000), -38%, ¥1,080,000,000 ($9.0 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 4
10 (--) ¥50,000,000 ($415,000), 0, ¥50,000,000 ($415,000), The Laws of the Universe - Part 0 (Nikkatsu) NEW
11 (06) ¥45,000,000 ($375,000), -40%, ¥2,110,000,000 ($17.7 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 6

>Library Wars: The Last Mission will debut atop the box office quite-handily, and pre-sales and morning/afternoon showings suggest it could even reach ¥300 million ($2.5 million) over the weekend. Not only would this be very good for a October release, but it'd also be nearly 40% above the opening of its predecessor, too.

>The Intern was looking good prior to the weekend, and its pre-sales/morning ticket sales confirms it's indeed doing pretty well. There's a possibility it'll debut in second place, but I don't want to go that far yet as it could be skewing toward an older audience, which would mean its evening business will be weak.

>Fantastic Four is a dub, and it's easy to already call it such due to its poor Friday opening (second place with maybe ¥30 million ($250,000)) and very lackluster pre-sales going into the weekend. I'm actually doubting its chances of reaching the ¥100 million mark over the weekend, which would be embarrassing.

>Gamba & His Friends is, unfortunately, not looking too good. I'm sure its Sunday will greatly outpace its Saturday business, as most animated films follow this trend (especially if they skew very young), but it's still going to have a poor opening. There's going to be a lot of money lost on this film, unless it garners international success somewhere...

>And finally, The Laws of the Universe - Part 0 might crack the Top 10. I hadn't considered it having any potential until I saw that it's playing on 170 screens. That's low, but above the standard for these types of anime films. And the pre-sales are also decent enough that it might bump Unfair: The End out of the Top 10.

This Monday is a National Holiday (Health and Sports Day), so weekend actuals will be delayed until Tuesday.
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Weekend Actuals (10/10-11)

166836_3.jpg
©2015“Library Wars -LM-“Movie Project"

01 (--) ¥329,462,700 ($2.75 million), 0, ¥329,462,700 ($2.75 million), Library Wars: The Last Mission (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥210,261,400 ($1.75 million), -16%, ¥667,334,400 ($5.6 million), Bakuman (Toho) Week 2
03 (--) ¥178,082,900 ($1.48 million), 0, ¥178,082,900 ($1.48 million), The Intern (Warner Bros.) NEW
04 (02) ¥138,413,200 ($1.0 million), -22%, ¥1,791,258,830 ($15.0 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 4
05 (--) ¥117,205,850 ($977,000), 0, ¥117,205,850 ($977,000), The Laws of the Universe - Part 0 (Nikkatsu) NEW
06 (--) ¥93,957,600 ($783,000), 0, ¥125,105,000 ($1.04 million), Fantastic Four (Fox) NEW
07 (--) ¥75,053,900 ($626,000), 0, ¥75,053,900 ($626,000), Gamba & His Friends (Toei) NEW
08 (03) ¥69,118,000 ($576,000), -30%, ¥1,422,867,100 ($12.0 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 4
09 (05) ¥61,622,500 ($513,000), -21%, ¥776,558,050 ($6.5 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 4
10 (06) ¥52,234,900 ($435,000), -30%, ¥2,139,506,900 ($17.9 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 6
11 (04) ¥49,555,800 ($413,000), -39%, ¥1,083,846,600 ($9.1 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 4

>Library Wars: The Last Mission delivered the easy weekend victory, opening 52% higher than its predecessor from two years ago.

The second live-action adaptation based on Hiro Arikawa's light novel series sold 246,395 admissions over the weekend frame across 323 screens. Not only is the initial growth over its predecessor quite impressive, but this level of a debut is also fairly strong for a October release. There's a good chance it'll manage to reach the ¥2 billion milestone which is, again, nice for this time of year.

>Bakuman held a lot better than I was expecting heading into the weekend, and even throughout the weekend. The live-action adaptation of the popular manga/anime sold a further 155,656 tickets over its second weekend, exceeding 500,000 after nine-days in release.

A sub-20% drop is impressive, and proves that it'll be a weekend film since its weekdays were somewhat weak. It'll probably reach the ¥1.5 billion mark, but not much more.

>The Intern appeared to be heading for an impressive second place debut, but had to settle for third place instead.

However, its third place ranking doesn't take away from the success of its debut. Playing on 272 screens, the Hathaway/Niro lead comedy sold 138,771 admissions over the weekend. It's rare for imported-comedies to find an audience in Japan, so this opening is certainly a success for Warner Bros. and could result in another ¥1 billion earner for them this year.

>While the Library Wars sequel delivered an impressive debut, The Laws of the Universe - Part 0 was definitely the biggest surprise this weekend. I really, really underestimated the potential it had going into the weekend.

Opening on 172 screens, the anime film sold 85,495 tickets over the weekend, earning itself a Top 5 debut. Bravo.

>And as a result, Fantastic Four actually missed the Top 10 in its opening weekend...

The superhero reboot bombed, selling only 70,761 tickets over the weekend frame on 639 screens. It's going to be lucky to even reach ¥500 million, if it can stay in the Top 10 long enough to maintain a sufficent enough of screens/showtimes.

>Gamba & His Friends also got off to a poor start, which is certainly disappointing for everyone involved in film's very long production (10+ years).

The 3D animated film, and the first Gamba film since 1991, sold a measly 58,740 tickets across 596 screens. It also cost a reported ¥2 billion, meaning it'll need to find significant success overseas to recover any of that.
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Important Update:

Beginning next week - All updates, from seating/showtimes to real-time ticket sales on major weekends, that I post involving the Usual Locations, which currently consists of Toho Cinemas, Movix Cinemas, United Cinemas, Kinezo Cinemas and 109 Cinemas, combined representing about 43% of the overall market, will expand to include Aeon Cinemas!

Aeon Cinemas became the largest cinema chain in Japan two years ago when they acquired Warner Mycal theaters from Warner Bros.., and when their locations are added next week, the Usual Locations postings will represent a comfortable two-thirds (~66%) of the market's total screens, up from the 43% that's been posted for a few years now.

Updated Usual Locations (66% of Market)
82 theaters / 679 screens - Aeon Cinemas
64 theaters / 664 screens - Toho Cinemas
25 theaters / 233 screens - Movix Cinemas
22 theaters / 214 screens - United Cinemas
21 theaters / 161 screens - Kinezo Cinemas
19 theaters / 164 screens - 109 Cinemas

I'd begin posting the Usual Locations with Aeon Cinemas now included this weekend, but it's quite a boring one, so starting it with Galaxy Turnpike (probably the biggest release until December) next week will be more exciting.

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