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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Delayed releases usually perform better than ones released at the same time as the U.S. or a few weeks after. A movies success in the U.S. helps build anticipation and maximizes distribution and promotions in the market, too. John Carter bombed after opening a few weeks after the U.S., and Battleship did far less than was expected opening weeks before the U.S. launch. Unless it's a major franchise release or features/stars proven directors/actors, almost every movie released around the same time as the U.S. release disappoints. It's interesting that you mention piracy. Piracy isn't a serious issue in Japan, and in fact, it's another reason why many Hollywood films receive a delayed release in Japan. That may sound bizarre, but movies released around the same time in the U.S. are more prone to piracy. It works the complete opposite as it does in China and other markets where piracy is a problem. The Japanese people choose which films they see wisely since going to the movies is more of an event than a hobby. If they're unsure if they want to pay to see a newly released film that has just opened in the U.S. or worldwide, many would be tempted to pirate the movie instead not knowing if it was well-received or not. That's where the delayed release becomes a positive for many movies box office prospects. If a movie did really well in the U.S., the Japanese are more likely to see it in theaters rather than online or a bootleg copy.

Very interesting :)
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June 16-17

Weekend Forecast

Posted Image

1 (new) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥280-305 million ($3.5-3.8 million), Week 1

2 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥225-235 million ($2.8-3 million), Week 2

3 (1) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥220-230 million ($2.7-2.9 million), Week 4

4 (3) Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥120-130 million ($1.5/1.6 million), Week 8

5 (4) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥80-85 million ($1/1.1 million), Week 5

6 (new) Love & Sincerity (Kadokawa Pictures/TOEI) ¥65-70 million ($800-850,000), Week 1

7 (5) The Final Judgement (Nikkatsu) ¥60-65 million ($750-800,000), Week 3

8 (6) We Bought a Zoo (FOX) ¥55-60 million ($700-750,000), Week 2

9 (7) Girl (Toho) ¥45-50 million ($550-600,000), Week 4

10 (8) Sadako 3D (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥40-45 million ($500-550,000), Week 6

11 (new) The Lucky One (Warner Bros.) ¥35-40 million ($450-500,000), Week 1

12 (9) Black Dawn (TOEI) ¥25-30 million ($300-350,000), Week 3

The weekend box office is starting to get a little weak, especially the bottom half, and next weekend will likely be even weaker. June is one of the weakest months of the year, so it's not too surprising and this allows The Amazing Spider-Man to debut in a wide open market on June 30th and makes way for all of July's big releases, too.

Weekend Milestone Watch:

Dark Shadows may exceed 2 billion yen ($25 million) after 30 days in release.

Thermae Romae comes within reach of M:I-4 and becoming the highest grossing film of the year so far. After 51 days, it's total will be near 5.3 billion yen ($66/67 million).

MIB 3 will exceed 2.5 billion yen after just 23 days in release. I see about 2.7 billion yen ($34/35 million) after this weekend.

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Is that any good for SWATH?

Yeah, it's not too bad. It's also a Friday opener, so it's weekend will be deflated a little. A weekend debut of 300 million yen, and a 3-day total close to 400 million yen would get it over 1.5 billion yen ($20 million) and maybe as much as 2 billion yen ($25 million).
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Among those, I'd say these three would be worth most seeing:Rebirth swept Japan's Academy Awards last year.Love Strikes (Moteki) was a big favorite among audiences last year.Space Battleship Yamato did very well at the box office and has some great visuals. Edited by Corpse
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In Japanese class we watched 誰も知らない (Nobody Knows) - what a crazy movie. They bury the sister in a suitcase at the airport! We've also seen おくりびと (Departures?)、電車男 Train Man :D、リンダリンダリンダ Linda Linda Linda.

Edited by Travod Unchained
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June 16-17

Updated Weekend Forecast

(based on Saturday Data)

1 (new) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥318 million ($4 million), Week 1

2 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥204 million ($2.6 million), -34.5%, Week 2

3 (1) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥189 million ($2.4 million) , -39.5%, Week 4

4 (3) Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥147 million ($1.9 million), -10.4%, Week 8

5 (4) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥74 million ($1 million), -42%, Week 5

6 (7) Girls (Toho) ¥54 million ($690,000), -23.3%, Week 4

7 (6) We Bought a Zoo (FOX) ¥48 million ($610,000), -46.4%, Week 2

8 (8) Sadako 3D (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥40 million ($510,000), -42.6%, Week 6

9 (new) Love & Sincerity (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥33 million ($420,000), Week 1

10 (9) Black Dawn (TOEI) ¥23 million ($290,000), -48.5%, Week 3

Looking pretty good for Snow White and the Huntsman. A debut over 300 million locks up 1.5 billion yen ($20 million) and could be enough for 2 billion yen ($25 million).

If that figure holds for Thermae Romae, it will have the biggest eighth weekend since Toy Story 3 (252 million) and Arrietty (151 million) in 2010. I'm beginning to wonder if $80 million is possible.

Once again, no numbers are available for The Final Judgement, but it should rank above Girls in it's third weekend bumping Black Dawn out of the Top 10.

Edited by Corpse
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June 16-17

Weekend Estimates

(based on Weekend Data)

1 (new) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥292 million ($3.7 million), Week 1

2 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥215 million ($2.7 million), -31.4%, Week 2

3 (1) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥193 million ($2.5 million), -38.8%, Week 4

4 (3) Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥150 million ($1.9 million), -8.3%, Week 8

5 (4) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥76 million ($1 million), -40.4%, Week 5

6 (7) Girls (Toho) ¥53 million ($670,000), -24.8%, Week 4

7 (6) We Bought a Zoo (FOX) ¥46 million ($590,000), -49.0%, Week 2

8 (8) Sadako 3D (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥40 million ($510,000), -41.2%, Week 6

9 (new) Love & Sincerity (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥32 million ($410,000), Week 1

10 (9) Black Dawn (TOEI) ¥23 million ($290,000), -48.3%, Week 3

¥2 billion ($25 million) may not be possible for Snow White and the Huntsman if it does fall under ¥300 million for the weekend, but it is still looking at ¥1.6-1.8 billion ($20-22 million) with this opening which is solid.

Thermae Romae actually improves on it's already insane drop and looks to have it's second single digit drop (the first was in it's fourth weekend). If it can manage a slight uptick to ¥152 million, it's eighth weekend will be higher than Arrietty, giving it the second best eighth weekend in 2 years behind only Toy Story 3's ¥252 million eighth weekend. And both Arrietty and Toy Story 3 were benefiting from Obon Festival during their seventh and eighth weeks in release.

Not bad for Dark Shadows. It's had to contend with MIB 3 and Thermae Romae during it's run and will surpass Sweeney Todd's ¥2.05 billion total really soon. Shadows looks good for ¥2.3/2.4 billion (about $30 million).

Edited by Corpse
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