JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

Corpse:

Sing is likely to repeat atop the box office based on a great second Saturday, since it'll probably see a sizable increase tomorrow which will keep it comfortably ahead of Kong: Skull Island for the weekend frame, aiming for a second weekend above ¥400 million ($3.5 million+).

And speaking of Kong: Skull Island, it performed pretty well. Nothing spectacular, but quite respectable. As long as it doesn't end up declining tomorrow, it should have a good second place debut. Based on Saturday, I'm expecting an opening between ¥375-400 million ($3.3-3.6 million), and that'll be nicely above the ¥313 million that King Kong (2005) opened to. 

Moana and Doraemon held very nicely. The former is likely going to slip to third place, but if it can deliver a sizable increase tomorrow, there's still a chance it'll hold onto second place. Moana will be targeting a third weekend of ¥350 million ($3 million+), while Doraemon will likely stay above ¥300 million ($2.7 million+) in its fourth weekend.

Policeman and Me and Daytime Shooting Star both performed reasonably well, though the former had some admission spikes throughout the day indicating it had some stage greetings going on, and if that's the case, it might see a noticeable decline tomorrow. Both are probably aiming for ¥200 million ($1.7 million) or so. 

Kamen Rider is doing what Kamen Rider typically does, although it appears headed for an opening just on par with the recent franchise debut based on Saturday, aiming for ¥150-175 million ($1.3-1.5 million).

Passengers, as expected based on its Friday numbers, disappoints and is really the only loser this weekend. It's going to at least exceed the ¥100 million ($1 million) mark over the weekend frame, but not much more.

[Dingdong123]

4 hours ago, Planodisney said:

Anyway, if you look at the numbers it doesn't seem like Sing can pass Moana in Japan.  Moana is basically 8 million in front of Sing and weekends after this will be virtually even.  Moana could even pull ahead slightly.

Still, strong performances from Illuminations and another lower than expected performance in Japan by Disney.  Seams like animation taste is changing in Japan.

Used to be that quality always excelled and they didn't really go for "gag" humor.

What do you mean Moana is performing below expectations? Where do you think will its total gross end? Can above 50 million USD still happen?

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (03/25-26)
01 (01) ¥442,000,000 ($4.0 million), -19%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.6 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK2
02 (---) ¥380,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥380,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (02) ¥373,000,000 ($3.3 million), -18%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($24.3 million), Moana (Disney) WK3
04 (03) ¥304,000,000 ($2.7 million), -20%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($24.2 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) NEW
06 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) NEW
07 (---) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) NEW
08 (04) ¥134,000,000 ($1.2 million), -40%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($30.5 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK5
09 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Passengers (Sony) NEW
10 (06) ¥87,000,000 ($780,000), -45%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), Precure the Movie: Dream Stars! (Toei) WK2

>Sing holds onto its #1 ranking, only dropped about 20% (maybe just under) in its second weekend frame, fending off a wide variety of newcomers. Illumination managed to achieve another home run here, and a total over ¥4 billion (~$35 million+) is looking likely.

>Kong: Skull Island enjoys a good second place debut, or possibly third place depending on actuals (good nonetheless), that's ~20% higher than the 2005 King Kong. The 2005 film was released before New Year, so it'll probably have better legs than Skull Island, but I expect Warner Bros.'s adaptation to exceed the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) mark.

>Moana enjoyed a strong third weekend hold, but despite how good that sub-20% figure looks, it's still not comparable to its studio predecessors, Frozen, Big Hero 6, or Zootopia. I think it's probably safe to say that it's unlikely to recover enough to match the legs of those films, but it's still aiming for the ¥5 billion (~$45 million) blockbuster milestone, which is certainly nothing to be disappointed about.

>Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic is also still holding very well in the face of numerous new releases, and if it has a strong final week of Spring Break, is still on target for a ¥4 billion (~$35 milllion) total. If it reaches ¥4 billion, it'll become only the second film in the 37 entry franchise to accomplish the feat (after last year's film).

>Daytime Shooting Star and Policeman and Me both had healthy debuts, though I don't believe either quite managed to reach the ¥200 million mark over the weekend. Still, even if they come in below that mark as I'm estimating, both have a fair chance of reaching the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, especially the former.

>Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War, the 55th theatrical release in the Kamen Rider series, debuts within box office expectations and franchise expectations. And while it's maintaining a consistent opening weekend, and likely total, for the series, it's not enough once again to climb back to the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone.

>Passengers was unable to generate much interest in a busy Spring Break season, and was only able to debut in the bottom half of the Top 10. It has enough admissions to have secured an opening weekend above ¥100 million, so it's not a complete failure, but it's definitely a disappointing start. It'll probably finish somewhere around ¥700 million ($6 million) or so, just enough to get it over the $300 million worldwide mark.

[ttr]

Anyway, if you look at the numbers it doesn't seem like Sing can pass Moana in Japan.  Moana is basically 8 million in front of Sing and weekends after this will be virtually even.  Moana could even pull ahead slightly.

Still, strong performances from Illuminations and another lower than expected performance in Japan by Disney.  Seams like animation taste is changing in Japan.

Used to be that quality always excelled and they didn't really go for "gag" humor.

"Another lower than expected". Which one was latest that did lower than expectations? Zootopia, BH6, Frozen? Maybe WiR or Tangled?

 

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, ttr said:

"Another lower than expected". Which one was latest that did lower than expectations? Zootopia, BH6, Frozen? Maybe WiR or Tangled?

 

 

 

If we include Pixar, the only recent Disney animated films that truly disappointed in Japan were Brave ($11 million) and The Good Dinosaur ($15 million). Moana is expected to end up around $45 million, which is quite respectable for an animated film in Japan. It's still higher than Tangled ($31 million) or Wreck-It Ralph ($30 million) in terms of original WDAS films this decade. Frozen ($249 million) was obviously never going to happen, but I think many hoped Moana could match Zootopia ($70 million) or Big Hero 6 ($77 million). 

 

[trifle]

6 hours ago, cremino said:

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (03/25-26)
01 (01) ¥442,000,000 ($4.0 million), -19%, ¥1,950,000,000 ($17.6 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK2
02 (---) ¥380,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥380,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (02) ¥373,000,000 ($3.3 million), -18%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($24.3 million), Moana (Disney) WK3
04 (03) ¥304,000,000 ($2.7 million), -20%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($24.2 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.6 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) NEW
06 (---) ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥170,000,000 ($1.5 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) NEW
07 (---) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) NEW
08 (04) ¥134,000,000 ($1.2 million), -40%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($30.5 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK5
09 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Passengers (Sony) NEW
10 (06) ¥87,000,000 ($780,000), -45%, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), Precure the Movie: Dream Stars! (Toei) WK2

>Passengers was unable to generate much interest in a busy Spring Break season, and was only able to debut in the bottom half of the Top 10. It has enough admissions to have secured an opening weekend above ¥100 million, so it's not a complete failure, but it's definitely a disappointing start. It'll probably finish somewhere around ¥700 million ($6 million) or so, just enough to get it over the $300 million worldwide mark.

 

I'm fine if it's $6 million.  It was budgeted at less than Elysium and has made more both domestically and (considerably more) internationally.  We know from the Sony hack that that made money.  $6 million in Japan will push Passengers over $300M worldwide, easily, and at this point that is just a psychological milestone (which I really want, but...) it doesn't determine whether or not it is profitable.

[Omni]

17 hours ago, ttr said:

"Another lower than expected". Which one was latest that did lower than expectations? Zootopia, BH6, Frozen? Maybe WiR or Tangled?

 

He was probably referring to Inside Out and Finding Dory, which, though, are technically Pixar.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Actuals (03/25-26)
01 (01) ¥451,308,290 ($4.1 million), -17%, ¥1,893,987,290 ($17.2 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) WK2
02 (---) ¥396,398,820 ($3.5 million), 0, ¥396,398,820 ($3.5 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (02) ¥371,762,000 ($3.3 million), -19%, ¥2,671,767,700 ($24.1 million), Moana (Disney) WK3
04 (03) ¥304,031,100 ($2.7 million), -20%, ¥2,646,925,600 ($23.8 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) WK4
05 (---) ¥179,120,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥253,668,000 ($2.3 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) NEW
06 (---) ¥177,086,900 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥177,086,900 ($1.6 million), Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) NEW
07 (---) ¥173,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥173,000,000 ($1.6 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) NEW
08 (04) ¥136,953,900 ($1.2 million), -39%, ¥3,426,991,300 ($30.7 million), La La Land (Gaga) WK5
09 (---) ¥124,346,100 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥168,980,800 ($1.5 million), Passengers (Sony) NEW
10 (06) ¥89,335,700 ($807,000), -43%, ¥384,988,500 ($3.4 million), Precure the Movie: Dream Stars! (Toei) WK2

>Sing holds onto its #1 ranking, dropping under 20% in its second weekend frame, to fend off a wide variety of newcomers. After 10 days in release now, the animated musical competition has sold a nice 1,513,520 admissions. Illumination managed to achieve another home run here, and a total over ¥4 billion (~$35 million+) is looking likely.

>Kong: Skull Island enjoys a good second place debut, selling 256,885 admissions across 676 screens over the weekend frame. Its debut is 27% higher than the 2005 King Kong. It remains to be seen if the new Kong will manage the impressive legs of the 2005 film, since New Year is stronger than Spring Break, but a total between ¥2-2.5 billion (~$20-25 million) seems likely.

>Moana enjoyed a strong third weekend hold, but despite how good that sub-20% figure looks, it's still not comparable to its studio predecessors, Frozen, Big Hero 6, or Zootopia. After 16 days in release, Disney's latest acclaimed animated hit has sold 2,160,369 admissions. I think it's probably safe to say that it's unlikely to recover enough to match the legs of those films, but it's still aiming for the ¥5 billion (~$45 million) blockbuster milestone, which is certainly nothing to be disappointed about.

>Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic continues to hold very well in the face of numerous new releases, and if it has a strong final week of Spring Break, is still on target for a ¥4 billion (~$35 milllion) total. After 23 days in release, the 37th entry in the long-running franchise has sold 2,288,809 admissions. If it reaches ¥4 billion, it'll become only the second film in the franchise to accomplish the feat (after last year's film).

>Daytime Shooting Star managed to make the Top 5 in a very, very close battle with two of the other weekend debuts. Directed by Takehiko Shinjo, and starring Mei Nagano, Shohei Miura, and Aran Shirahama, the live-action adaptation of the shojo manga sold 145,676 admissions across 273 screens over the weekend frame. And since opening on Friday, brings its 3-day admissions to 218,251. Legs are typically solid for shojo films release in the Spring, so I expect a total comfortably above ¥1 billion (~$10 million).

>Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War, the 55th theatrical release in the Kamen Rider series, debuts in sixth place and within expectations. The latest film, the first of the tri-annual release strategy, sold 144,347 admissions over the weekend across 309 screens. Its debut is solid, and fairly standard for the cross over series, but the frontloaded nature of the series will prevent it from reaching ¥1 billion (~$10 million), so look for a total around ¥800 million ($7 million+).

>Policeman and Me only comes in seventh place over the weekend, but distributor Shochiku is likely satisfied with its decent opening. Also based on a shojo manga, the live-action adaptation sold 141,017 admissions over the weekend on 303 screens. As I mentioned above, legs for shojo films during Spring Break are usually good, so a total of ¥1 billion (~$10 million) is possible.

>Passengers rounds out the openers that made the Top 10, having to settle for a disappointing ninth place ranking. Expectations weren't particularly good, but the sizable screen count and release date are indications that Sony was expecting better. The Chris Pratt, Jennifer Lawrence lead film only sold 92,488 admissions over the weekend frame on 499 screens. And since opening on Friday, brings its 3-day admissions up to 124,397. It'll be prone to early screen/showtime cuts given its under-performance, so legs are probably going to be lackluster, so look for a total of ¥500-600 million ($4-5 million) or so.

>And finally, well out of the Top 10 now, Your Name. is still hanging on fairly well (around 15/16th place). After 31 weeks in release, Makoto Shinkai's phenomenon uber-blockbuster has now grossed ¥24,786,911,900 ($234.6 million) and has sold 19,093,366 admissions.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Daily Estimates (03/27-31):

Monday (03/27)

¥180 million ($1.6 million), -52%, ¥2,070,000,000 ($18.8 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) Day 11
¥145 million ($1.3 million), -54%, ¥2,815,000,000 ($25.4 million), Moana (Disney) Day 18
¥135 million ($1.2 million), -53%, ¥2,780,000,000 ($25.0 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) Day 24
¥100 million ($900,000), 0, ¥495,000,000 ($4.4 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) Day 3
¥75 million ($675,000), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) Day 4
¥60 million ($540,000), 0, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) Day 3
¥30 million ($270,000), -73%, ¥3,455,000,000 ($31.0 million), La La Land (Gaga) Day 32
¥30 million ($270,000), -65%, ¥830,000,000 ($7.5 million), Let's Go, Jets! (Toho) Day 17
¥25 million ($225,000), 0, ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) Day 3
¥25 million ($225,000), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.7 million), Passengers (Toho) Day 4
.....
¥5 million ($45,000), -68%, ¥24,792,000,000 ($234.7 million), Your Name. (Toho) Day 213

Note: Monday-to-Monday drops are harsh because last Monday was a national holiday.

 

Tuesday (03/28)
¥150 million ($1.3 million), +45%, ¥2,220,000,000 ($20.1 million), Sing (Toho-Towa) Day 12
¥115 million ($1.0 million), +48%, ¥2,930,000,000 ($26.4 million), Moana (Disney) Day 19
¥110 million ($1.0 million), +198%, ¥2,890,000,000 ($26.0 million), Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho) Day 25
¥80 million ($720,000), 0, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) Day 4
¥65 million ($585,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.5 million), Daytime Shooting Star (Toho) Day 5
¥55 million ($495,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), Policeman and Me (Shochiku) Day 4
¥30 million ($270,000), -34%, ¥3,485,000,000 ($31.3 million), La La Land (Gaga) Day 33
¥25 million ($225,000), -23%, ¥855,000,000 ($7.7 million), Let's Go, Jets! (Toho) Day 18
¥20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($1.9 million), Passengers (Sony) Day 5
¥20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei) Day 4
.....
¥4 million ($36,000), -19%, ¥24,796,000,000 ($234.7 million), Your Name. (Toho) Day 214

% changes versus same day last week.

[a2k]

10 hours ago, cremino said:

 

Tuesday (03/28)
¥80 million ($720,000), 0, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.) Day 4
 

 

Based on the 4-day cume, what's your prediction for Kong's final gross? Is $25m possible?

[Cookson]

Looks like a ton of films had a great hold compared to last Saturday! What was that about?

[Olive]

16 hours ago, Cookson said:

Looks like a ton of films had a great hold compared to last Saturday! What was that about?

1st of every month = cheaper tickets

[KP1025]

Anybody able to access Corpse's numbers? The website seems to have been down for several days now.

[Piku-Banerjee]

Wow, if Deadline's numbers are true then The LEGO Batman Movie had a godawful opening weekend in Japan. Only $396K.

 

Also, both Moana and Sing increased from last weekend. Great for both films.

Edited April 3, 2017 by Piku-Banerjee
Fixed grammartical error.

[KeepItU25071906]

34 minutes ago, Piku-Banerjee said:

Wow, if Deadline's numbers are true then The LEGO Batman Movie had a godawful opening weekend in Japan. Only $396K.

 

Lego Movie had $256K opening. So I don't see any "Wow" for this.

[Olive]

Lego Batman only made 10% of Sing's third weekend

[Noctis]

How is the buzz for Beauty?

[Olive]

2 hours ago, Noctis said:

How is the buzz for Beauty?

Huge, $10M OW in play.

 

Some weekend actuals

Sing up to 3.19B yen, after 470M weekend(+4%)

Moana weekend 377M yen(+1%)

LLL up to 3.7B yen total

Kong 2nd weekend -24%

[Noctis]

Would that get it to $100m?

[Olive]

2 hours ago, Noctis said:

Would that get it to $100m?

the odds is 60%