The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Totem]

Risky club but if anything is going to pass 1B OS it is this.I'm in.

Edited March 11, 2013 by Totem

[John Marston]

out for this but I think part 2 will get there

[Neo]

1.31B

[XenoZodiac]

In

[Shawn Robbins]

In.

[tawasal]

Very tough to say right now so early.

[Olive]

In 1.1B

[Shawn Robbins]

I'll amend my "In" with "...if the film doesn't disappoint."It should go without saying that any high gross like this -- especially in this day and age -- requires a movie that satisfies its audience.

[CloneWars]

I'm in.

[Plain Old Tele]

In. Not only is LOTR a huge overseas franchise, but 3D is huge there as well. I think people are going to be stunned at how huge TH is gonna be.

[Totem]

I would bet that Nolan makes a bad Batman before Peter Jackson ever makes a bad LOTR movie.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just out of curiosity, what does ROTK's OS gross adjust to? Roughly speaking, of course.

[Totem]

Just out of curiosity, what does ROTK's OS gross adjust to? Roughly speaking, of course.

Almost impossible to know I think, the OS has changed so much over the last 10 years it is almost irrelevant, plus the exchange rate is completely different now to what it would have been back then.Should add all this 'change' is a good thing for TH, markets have expanded significantly and with 3D being popular OS the sky could be the limit. No non Cameron film has ever passed 1B OS so I thought it was a good mark but 1-1.2B isn't unreasonable.

[Plain Old Tele]

Oh yeah, I agree. Russia and China alone are two essentially "new" markets that could be huge -- they could be worth $200m.

[Neo]

Oh yeah, I agree. Russia and China alone are two essentially "new" markets that could be huge -- they could be worth $200m.

Together or apiece?

[Totem]

TH isn't going to match Avatar in china, obviously together.

[Plain Old Tele]

Together or apiece?

Combined.

[Tower]

In, 1.2B.

[peludo]

Just out of curiosity, what does ROTK's OS gross adjust to? Roughly speaking, of course.

It's quite difficult because each country has its own peculiarities. We have to analyze country by country. I can give you some local numbers and then we can imagine a more or less accurate number. I'll give some cases:Australia: according to BOM, ROTK grossed 36.5 million. 1 AUD = 0.75 USD approx during the release. Today it's 1 AUD=1.03 USD. That's a 37% increase. In 2003 the tickets cost 9.64 AUD and in 2011 12.87 AUD. That's another 33.5% increase. So it would have done today (with 2011 prices): 36.5*1.37*1.335=66.75 million (without 3D)Spain: according to BOM, ROTK grossed 39.8 million $. It had 6.8 million admissions. Today the average ticket price in Spain is about 6.5 euros. So it would gross tpday about 44.2 million euros. Today 1 € = 1.25 $. ROTK Spanish today gross would be 44.2*1.25=55.25 million $ (without 3D)Japan: I don't know the average ticket price, but yen today is 36% higher than in 2003-2004. ROTK grossed there 94 million. Only with the exchange factor it would be today 128 million. I don't count 3D and inflation.Euro was about 1.2$ in 2003. During this years it has been quite higher (1.46$ in 2009 when Avatar was released and 1.4$ last year), but today is about 1.25$, nearly the same than in 2003. But if we assume an average factor inflation of 1.3 for eurozone (similar to Australia or Spain) we could have this figures:Germany: 87*1.3=113 million $France: 48*1.3=62 million $Italy: 35.8*1.3=46.5 million $Netherlands: 19*1.3=24.7 million $Belgium and Austria: Each 10*1.3=13 million $British Pound has drop from 1.78$ to 1.54$ (14%). With a 30% inflation since then (like other countries) that give us a 12% higher than 2003. ROTK did 106 million in UK, so today it would be 118.7 millionThis 10 countries grossed 485 million for ROTK in 2003. Today they would add 641. That's a 32% higher. Extrapolating to ROTK OS number (742 million) it would give us 980 million OS.If it had been released today we should have into account 3D and expanding markets too, so we would have a number quite higher than 980. In China ROTK did 10 million, Brazil 9.9, Russia 14 or Mexico 15.6. I don't know if Tolkien is very well-beloved in this countries, but I suspect this numbers would be multiplied today.Australian ticket prices: http://www.screenaustralia.gov.au/research/statistics/wcboprices.aspExchange historic rates: http://www.gocurrency.com/v2/historic-exchange-rates.php?ccode2=JPY&ccode=USD&frMonth=5&frDay=5&frYear=2004

[Plain Old Tele]

That's a tremendous post. Obviously we're extrapolating numbers and it won't be completely accurate, but still, very very helpful.So basically, ROTK adjusted is almost at $1b OS without any 3D boost. If TH manages to hold on to a decent percentage of the ROTK audience, it should be able to clear the $1b mark, which would be really impressive.