The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

[Olive]

850-900M

Edited July 29, 2012 by Invincible Olive

[Fake]

The way exchange rates are atm..... 1B is insanely difficult.........800-850m for now.......

[Michael Seng Wah]

more than Return of the King

so 850mil, OUT

but if part 1 is good, the last one would no doubt doing big and has the chance of 1bil just for OS

[peludo]

The way exchange rates are atm..... 1B is insanely difficult.........800-850m for now.......

Exchange rates are wide better than in LOTR years. Euro is the same than in 2003, Australian dollar has doubled and yen is 40% higher. Only British pound is about -15% lower than 2003. And we already know what have happened in Brazil, Mexico, Russia and China...

[Fake]

Exchange rates are wide better than in LOTR years. Euro is the same than in 2003, Australian dollar has doubled and yen is 40% higher. Only British pound is about -15% lower than 2003. And we already know what have happened in Brazil, Mexico, Russia and China...

If you are just stuck on LOTR for comparisons, you will get it wrong.Come back to the present times..... even Avengers will barely do 900M..... and it shattered many records. And euro is even worse now.

[peludo]

It's not a LOTR comparison, is a 2001-2012 exchange rate comparison.Avengers is the main evidence of OS numbers explosion. Outside US, SH are not usually as liked as other franchises. Well, look at Batman evolution:Batman Begins did 167 million OS in 2005, TDK did 468 million in 2008 and TDKR is headed to 650 (700+ if it gets a release in China) in 2012. Both TA (wiithout 3D) and TDKR will make similar amountsIn US both Avengers and TDKR are the most expected movies of the year, but the most expected movie OS is The Hobbit. Don't doubt about this. I don't like to give a global OS number. You have to analyze each country (at least the main countries), and looking Avengers foreign numbers country by country I only see Mexico (61) and Brazil (64) figures hard to reach for Hobbit. But TH can easily outgross TA numbers in the other countries (some of them by a wide margin).

Edited July 29, 2012 by peludo

[Fake]

It's not a LOTR comparison, is a 2001-2012 exchange rate comparison.

Avengers is the main evidence of OS numbers explosion. Outside US, SH are not usually as liked as other franchises. Well, look at Batman evolution:

Batman Begins did 167 million OS in 2005, TDK did 468 million in 2008 and TDKR is headed to 650 (700+ if it gets a release in China) in 2012. Both TA (wiithout 3D) and TDKR will make similar amounts

In US both Avengers and TDKR are the most expected movies of the year, but the most expected movie OS is The Hobbit. Don't doubt about this. I don't like to give a global OS number. You have to analyze each country (at least the main countries), and looking Avengers foreign numbers country by country I only see Mexico (61) and Brazil (64) figures hard to reach for Hobbit. But TH can easily outgross TA numbers in the other countries (some of them by a wide margin).

But that's the point, I very much doubt that.

TH1 will gross well below TA in most of the Asian markets. In India, I think TH1 will make about half.

[peludo]

But that's the point, I very much doubt that.TH1 will gross well below TA in most of the Asian markets. In India, I think TH1 will make about half.

Are you sure? I agree that TA will win in most southeast countries, but that difference won't be enough to recover the gap generated by both China and Japan:China: TA (90) - TH (150)Japan: TA (50?) - TH (125)That's a 135 million difference. I see a draw in South Lorea and Taiwan. Making some quick calculations I think TH will beat TA by about 80-100 million in Asia

[Fake]

Are you sure? I agree that TA will win in most southeast countries, but that difference won't be enough to recover the gap generated by both China and Japan:

China: TA (90) - TH (150)

Japan: TA (50?) - TH (125)

That's a 135 million difference. I see a draw in South Lorea and Taiwan. Making some quick calculations I think TH will beat TA by about 80-100 million in Asia

Those are just your predictions (and too high).

[peludo]

Those are just your predictions (and too high).

Like your India prediction, isn't it? The predictions I give are not only mine. Look at China forum and ask there what are they expecting for TH. And Japanese market is between 30% and 40% higher than 10 years ago just for the exchange rate. And the exchange rate increase is an undeniable factor that will play a huge role.

[Olive]

150M is a little high to expect for China, maybe 120M is more realistic...

[Fake]

Like your India prediction, isn't it? The predictions I give are not only mine. Look at China forum and ask there what are they expecting for TH. And Japanese market is between 30% and 40% higher than 10 years ago just for the exchange rate. And the exchange rate increase is an undeniable factor that will play a huge role.

I live in India, so I know a thing or two about which movies will do well here and which will not.

[peludo]

150M is a little high to expect for China, maybe 120M is more realistic...

Ok, let's say China gets 120 million. TH still would be 50-70 million (instead 80-100 I previously said) higher than TA only in Asia. Considering I think TH can gross 200 million more than TA in Europe. I think TA will win in South America by about 60-70 million, what would cancel the Asian advantage. So we would have the European 200 million, that would push the OS total to 1.1 billion (taking 900 total for TA thanks to Japan)

[Fake]

120m from China might be realistic, but I don't it will.80-100M probably.Same for Japan.

[peludo]

I live in India, so I know a thing or two about which movies will do well here and which will not.

Don't misunderstood me. I trust in your prediction for India. You probably know better than anyone in this forums how that market works. In fact, I had already considered that LOTR movies didn't worked well in India and TH has not the same potential than other movies. But in the same way I was born and live in Spain and I say TH can double TA gross here (20 million vs 40) . On the other hand, the prediction I gave about China is not mine. I took it from Chinese forums, from people who were born or live there.

[Elessar]

I'm pissed about the exchange rates. Hobbit will lose like $100m in Europe.

[Fake]

Don't misunderstood me. I trust in your prediction for India. You probably know better than anyone in this forums how that market works. In fact, I had already considered that LOTR movies didn't worked well in India and TH has not the same potential than other movies. But in the same way I was born and live in Spain and I say TH can double TA gross here (20 million vs 40) . On the other hand, the prediction I gave about China is not mine. I took it from Chinese forums, from people who were born or live there.

Okay. But what I am saying is, how many films are making 40m in Spain nowadays?

[Moviedweeb]

Out, I don't think $400m domestic is a lock either,

[Olive]

Dom: 380-420MOS: 850-1000M

[tupek]

I see Deathly Hallows part II overseas grosses at most. And obviously number 2 worldwide 2012.