Iron Man 3 OS thread ($803,300,000)

[Sam]

Reading the earlier pages in this thread was fun. Attitudes towards The Hobbit's slow-but-steady box office pace have me smh. Floppit!   

 

Enough of that, though. 

 

My prediction for IM3's OS haul is $700M. If anyone thinks that's trolling, well, the so-called "Floppit" made that much though that's not why I'm predicting it for RDJ & Co. My confidence stems from several factors: 3D spectacle, the Avengers boost, RDJ's massive popularity, balls-to-the-wall action and terrific trailers selling the same. I'm tempted to make an IM3 over TDKR thread, but I'm sure it would be closed as soon as it opened. For a movie as good as IM3 gives every indication of being, topping $448M/$1.08B is not unthinkable.

I wish I can be confident as you Talkie 

 

I'm thinking 550 right now, but I love your prediction more and I definitely root for it to happen  If 700M happened, I swear I will find and like as many posts from you as possible  to celebrate your awesome call 

[terrestrial]

If 700M happened, I swear I will find and like as many posts from you as possible  to celebrate your awesome call 

(not laughing about you, I only find this very funny)

Edited March 13, 2013 by terrestrial

[fmpro]

indeed.

 

 

You are crazy ...

 

Agree.

70-85 mill is far more realistic

[cjk]

indeed.You are crazy ...

It's not crazy ,IM3 will be NO.1 all of import films this year ,so ￥800m-1B seems quite normal. By the way , nice release day and pretty good marketing for IM3 . Edited March 13, 2013 by cjk

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It's not crazy ,IM3 will be NO.1 all of import films this year ,so ￥800m-1B seems quite normal. By the way , nice release day and pretty good marketing for IM3 .

No way still.ironman 3 has the possibility to enter the top 3 imported movies of 2013 and that's it.Don't see any foreign film gets more than $ 100m from china this year.

[druv10]

It's not crazy ,IM3 will be NO.1 all of import films this year ,so ￥800m-1B seems quite normal.By the way , nice release day and pretty good marketing for IM3 .

 

 

I thought we had no release day, yet?

 

I'm bumping my prediction up to 700M. Sheer size and scale of the action in this movie, expanding markets like LA, China and Russia, RDJ's popularity and BO bump from TA & Marvel.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Set for April 25 in china right now. But anything can happen before that. Won't be shocked if it gets pushed to post-May holiday release.

[Olive]

my new predition- 650M

 80-100M from China.

[cjk]

No way still.ironman 3 has the possibility to enter the top 3 imported movies of 2013 and that's it.Don't see any foreign film gets more than $ 100m from china this year.

Can you tell me about your forecast  for Titanic 3D and Life of Pi last year?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Can you tell me about your forecast  for Titanic 3D and Life of Pi last year?

RMB 1B for T3D and 100M for LOP.

[Ent]

Even if Transformers franchise is critically a mess, the analogy with the Transformers franchise can be used to guauge IM3 potential reception abroad.

 

1) TF2 did disappoint like IM2 desappointed from their respective first movie, both reaching respectively 310+ millions for IM2 and 410+ millions abroad for TF2.

 

2) Both were in 2D.

 

3) Then they decide to include 3D for the third movie.

 

I say if a mediocre TF3 could rise its foreign take from 52 % for TF2 to 68 % for TF3 just by the inclusion of 3D, 4 years ago, reaching 770 millions, i say it bodes well for IM3 on the foreign front using the same tool for a popular franchise. 

 

I therefore don't see why,the inclusion of 3D alone wouldn't push IM3 in the same way it did for TF3, and this without even including the new consumers from TA.  It did 50% in the foreign front with IM2.  It could very well behave like TF3 and rise this ratio abroad putting it at 66%. No matter what this ratio will rise anyway because of 3D and because of TA.  The only unknown element, is how much it could rise.

 

Since it is nearly guaranteed to reach $350 millions+ domestic, a 66% share representing the foreign box office will put it at $700 millions abroad.  Personally that doesn't seem so foolish or untattainable to me.

Edited March 22, 2013 by Ent

[SentryTrans]

500M

[The Hand of Illumination]

520m. Comparisons between IM3 and TF3 are unsupported until anyone can show me a scene from IM that matches TF3 city battle, wing suits, Optimus vs worm, skyscraper collapse or the highway battle.

[Robertron]

I'm thinking somewhere in the 470m-530m range.Now I prepare myself for the "The Avengers did $880m OS and.. Blah blah blah"

[Ent]

520m. Comparisons between IM3 and TF3 are unsupported until anyone can show me a scene from IM that matches TF3 city battle, wing suits, Optimus vs worm, skyscraper collapse or the highway battle.

True but that would support the premise than TF3 huge boost from TF2 is the direct consiquence of the inclusion of that scene rather than 3D.  My predictions is based on the fact that it's 3D that made TF3 rising from 52 % to 68% foreign wise and that the same gimmick alone can propel equally another blockbuster regardless of a special scene and this without even taking TA goodwill into the equation. 

Edited April 2, 2013 by Ent

[Sam]

The Avengers really changed the game for Marvel movies, and in turn, messed up our predictions, both domestically and internationally. Without TA, IM3 overseas should play by sequel rule, it has to increase, and 3D will obviously help. But factoring in TA, and no one knows how big the effect will be 

 

I think one thing for sure is that it will do considerably very well in South America. TA is such a beast there that I have a hard time seeing anything but big increase for IM3 over there. Other regions I have no idea what to expect, except maybe The Philippines where it's guaranteed to be big also. 

[Robertron]

The Avengers really changed the game for Marvel movies, and in turn, messed up our predictions, both domestically and internationally. Without TA, IM3 overseas should play by sequel rule, it has to increase, and 3D will obviously help. But factoring in TA, and no one knows how big the effect will be   I think one thing for sure is that it will do considerably very well in South America. TA is such a beast there that I have a hard time seeing anything but big increase for IM3 over there. Other regions I have no idea what to expect, except maybe The Philippines where it's guaranteed to be big also. 

That's why I'm not really heavily predicting on Marvel films; I'm merely giving rough guesstimates until we have some form of evidence TA has sparked extra interest in the solo films.Iron Man 3, provided quality is good, will give us major insight as to exactly how big of an impact (if any) it's had on the series, therefore allowing us to better predict for Thor, Cap and so on.

[Sam]

IMO, even if IM3 is a mega success, it's still not really easier to predict Cap & Thor cause IM3 is kinda in a special position right now.IM3 has so much going for it overseas. Same release pattern as TA; being the first true big blockbuster of the year, and with rather lackluster performances overseas these past months (which are looking up with GI Joe 2) that can only help; big scale actions; 3D; etc... That's why even if its a big hit, it's really hard to tell how much of it is because of "TA effect" Another thing that keep me being conservative about IM3 is competitions. FF6 is the biggest one while Trek2 is a question mark. Being a big fan of IM, naturally box office wise, I'm hoping for the best, especially if the movie is good. But 500M overseas is nothing to be scoff at, I'm happy with that really, anything over 500M is cherry on top for me ^^

[Ent]

IMO, even if IM3 is a mega success, it's still not really easier to predict Cap & Thor cause IM3 is kinda in a special position right now.IM3 has so much going for it overseas. Same release pattern as TA; being the first true big blockbuster of the year, and with rather lackluster performances overseas these past months (which are looking up with GI Joe 2) that can only help; big scale actions; 3D; etc...That's why even if its a big hit, it's really hard to tell how much of it is because of "TA effect"Another thing that keep me being conservative about IM3 is competitions. FF6 is the biggest one while Trek2 is a question mark.Being a big fan of IM, naturally box office wise, I'm hoping for the best, especially if the movie is good. But 500M overseas is nothing to be scoff at, I'm happy with that really, anything over 500M is cherry on top for me ^^

 

I agree with you but i don't think FF6, Hangover III or Trek2 are of any competion for IM3 on the foreign front since it has the best configuration of all 4 movies in terms of date of release.

 

IM3 is released two whole weeks before Trek2, the lesser competition which is released in Russia, english spoken countries and a dozen of little countries. FF6 and Hangover that are both more popular than Trek2 are both released a whole month after IM3.

 

I beleive Trek2, FF6 and Hangover will be the ones to suffer more of the competition between each other because they will be released at the same time in the foreign front (for the rest of the OS market for Trek 2 including Asia, South America and Europe minus the UK). 

 

The overlaping between those three will increase the advantage of IM3 abroad to generate maximum cash without too much competition.

[peludo]

I am still thinking in 525-550.

 

Just note that it will be copied the TA strategy. Many big countries will release a week before US (New Zealand, 2 weeks before). I am curious about that.