Lihongkim Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 6 hours ago, Eleven said: As "The Martian" passes 200M$ domestically, in USA+Canada market there are 7 movies that have reached this milestone in 2015 vs 6 in Chinese market. In 2014 the result was 13-1. I think USA+Canada could be at 10 at the end of the year (adding Star Wars, Hunger Games and The Good Dinosaur). What about China? How many movies will be over 200M? 7 - 8 Mojin-The Lost Legend is locked. Will wait to see Surprise, Skiptrace & Breakup Guru 2. But I don't think they can do it, probably each under 1B. Detective Chinatown should be locked too. But it release on the last day of 2015 (12/31), count to 2016. Our Times will release on Thursday, should be a biggest high school love story this year. The Left Ear 485M (4/24). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Tuesday estimates SPECTRE 28.7M/370M Exfiles 2 6.65M/233M Les Aventures d'Anthony 5.25M/51.3M Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials 1.9M/192M Everest 0.8M/99.9M Thursday showtimes Spectre 34.7% Our Times 29.3% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 13 hours ago, Lihongkim said: 7 - 8 Mojin-The Lost Legend is locked. Will wait to see Surprise, Skiptrace & Breakup Guru 2. But I don't think they can do it, probably each under 1B. Detective Chinatown should be locked too. But it release on the last day of 2015 (12/31), count to 2016. Our Times will release on Thursday, should be a biggest high school love story this year. The Left Ear 485M (4/24). Our Times will knock Spectre off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 (edited) AM 1 JB 24 Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Daily % Diff Fri 80 80 13 96 96 15 20.0% Sat 108 35.0% 188 30 121 26.0% 217 34 12.0% Sun 84 -22.2% 272 43 89 -26.4% 306 48 6.0% Mon 32 -61.9% 304 48 33 -63.0% 339 53 2.8% Tues 29 -9.4% 333 52 29 -12.8% 368 58 -1.0% est Wed 25 -13.8% 358 56 25 -12.9% 393 62 0.0% 44% ST Thur 23 -8.0% 381 60 22 -12.0% 415 65 -4.3% 35% ST Fri 33 43.5% -58.8% 414 65 26 18.2% -72.9% 441 69 -21.2% 11-15% ST Sat 60 81.8% -44.4% 474 74 44 69.2% -63.6% 485 76 -26.7% Sun 47 -21.7% -44.0% 521 82 34 -22.7% -61.8% 519 81 -27.7% Mon 15.3 -74.5% -52.2% 536 84 15 -55.9% -54.4% 534 84 -2.0% Tue 14.6 -4.6% -49.7% 551 86 13 -13.3% -54.7% 547 86 -11.0% Wed 13.3 -8.9% -46.8% 564 89 9 -30.8% -64.0% 556 87 -32.3% Martian Thu 12.1 -9.0% -47.4% 576 90 8 -11.1% -63.6% 564 88 675 106 The holds are standard. WOM must not be that bad. T4 had 14% and 17% drops on Tuesday and Wednesday. AM1 9 and 12%. Actual could come in a little higher like yesterday and the drop could be closer to 10%. I think it would've had 637m/$100m if it maintained more shows with less competition, like AM1 TP4 not doing big presales, maybe the weekend bump could be bigger than I projected. 600m still possible depending on the shows it keeps when Martian comes out I love google translate for titles JB24: James Bond: Ghost Party TP4: Express your life: restart battle HG4: Hunger Games 3; Ridicule Bird, Next Edited November 17, 2015 by No Prisoners 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) Gewara presales MJ1 - 8,513 (47 hours pre-midnight screening) - Sunday release MJ2 - 6,758 (36 hours pre-midnight screening) - Friday release Edited November 18, 2015 by The Good Olive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Pretty poor presales Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Only come Friday you will clearly see bad WOM effect MJ2 is not expected to do big anyway ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Friday will be weaker than sunday for sure. But friday is a better release date. At least it has a full OW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 40m OD， 250M total should be locked for MJ2.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wednesday estimates SPECTRE 25.9M/396M Exfiles 2 6.65M/240M Les Aventures d'Anthony 5.1M/56.3M Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials 1.7M/194M Everest 0.8M/101M Thursday showtimes Spectre 36% Our Times 24% 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 (edited) Our times presales at 1160. should come in at 2- 2.2x that at 23-25m. Looks like an underperformer with 24% of shows and could fade fast if it doesn't gain traction on Saturday. JB 24 should drop 12%~ again. Will be close for 1st place HG4 sales still not picking up yet at 6.6m TP4 is still under 2m with 20% of shows. Hopefully JB will hold its shows when Martian comes out and they take them from this dud Edited November 18, 2015 by No Prisoners 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archerdude Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 12 hours ago, No Prisoners said: Our times presales at 1160. should come in at 2- 2.2x that at 23-25m. Looks like an underperformer with 24% of shows and could fade fast if it doesn't gain traction on Saturday. JB 24 should drop 12%~ again. Will be close for 1st place HG4 sales still not picking up yet at 6.6m TP4 is still under 2m with 20% of shows. Hopefully JB will hold its shows when Martian comes out and they take them from this dud At 8pm the Maoyan numbers aren't that close 22.5 for Our times and 18.5 for JB24 for the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 2015/11/18 下午12:42:21, The Good Olive said: Gewara presales MJ1 - 8,513 (47 hours pre-midnight screening) - Sunday release MJ2 - 6,758 (36 hours pre-midnight screening) - Friday release take these numbers with a grain of salt. Gewara server crashed, the numbers haven't been updated for some time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 1 hour ago, Archerdude said: At 8pm the Maoyan numbers aren't that close 22.5 for Our times and 18.5 for JB24 for the day. New releases are heavy in pre-sales and the total doesnt increase much in the evening. It mite finish 24m to 22m. Close enough to call it a race. YA are usually front loaded. It doesn't look like it'll bump tomorrow. Bond doesnt't look like itll bump with showtime loss, it could've taken the day otherwise with HG4 at just 9m in presales, it may just do 25-27m TP4 will be less than 10m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thursday estimates Our Times： 22.2M OD SPECTRE： 20.6M/416M Exfiles 2： 4.5M/243M Les Aventures d'Anthony： 2.8M/59.3M Maze Runner 2： 1.2M/195MMockingjay - Part 2 midnights only 1.6M yuan, about 35% of what Antman made. 30M yuan opening day maybe?Mockingjay - Part 1 made 2.6M, but its on a Saturday night. Friday showtimes Mockingjay - Part 2：26.5% Transporter Refueled：17.2% Our Times： 15.3% Spectre： 15.1% A Fool：11% 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Olive, Ant-Man is finished right? What was the total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 14 minutes ago, druv10 said: Olive, Ant-Man is finished right? What was the total? 672m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Did Ant Man have a compareable screen loss on its 2nd friday like JB24 will have tomorrow?? JB has followed AM pretty good all week and will fall way behind tomorrow due to bad WOM(according to firedeep).. But a screen count of 15% must be lower than AM had and could therefor be the main reason. Not the acclaimed bad WOM Or? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 9 minutes ago, fmpro said: Did Ant Man have a compareable screen loss on its 2nd friday like JB24 will have tomorrow?? JB has followed AM pretty good all week and will fall way behind tomorrow due to bad WOM(according to firedeep).. But a screen count of 15% must be lower than AM had and could therefor be the main reason. Not the acclaimed bad WOM Or? Antman was at 22%, Pan flopped on that Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 4 hours ago, The Good Olive said: Antman was at 22%, Pan flopped on that Friday. So if JB falls 20-25% behind AM this weekend with 33% less screens and much more competition its still due to bad WOM? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
