China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

54 minutes ago, #ED said:

Is January 10th a good/decent date for SW7?

average/decent

11 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

How is SW7 faring/ 

fans are super excited but general audience almost uaware of ... it will do well but I dont think it will do too well...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So Martian could beat SW7 in China.

atm I dont see TM beating SW7. I have TM around 700m while SW7 around 1B. (probably only 1.3B+ have a shot at top 10 2016)

Edited November 21, 2015 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

just a reminder, winter break will mostly start on Jan 15th (hence six new notable releases on Jan 15th, 16th) so SW7 has half its leg in students holiday, an advantage this fall's HLW movies (like A-M, Spectre, Martian) didnt have, although it lacks a complete opening weekend ...

Edited November 21, 2015 by firedeep

[efialtes76]

On 13/11/2015 17:00:26, The Good Olive said:

2 hours ago, firedeep said:

just a reminder, winter break will mostly start on Jan 15th (hence six new notable releases on Jan 15th, 16th) so SW7 has half its leg in students holiday, an advantage this fall's HLW movies (like A-M, Spectre, Martian) didnt have, although it lacks a complete opening weekend ...

 

If KFP3 changes the release date to January 22 SW will be dead.

Edited November 21, 2015 by efialtes76

[Ash Skywalker]

 

3 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

If KFP3 changes the release date to January 22 SW will be dead.

how bad will SW or KFP3(if kfp opens on 22nd) hurts when those 5 or 6 notable releases in the second week of those films release? 

[Olive]

Saturday estimates
Mockingjay - Part 2：41.6M/73.8M
Our Times： 34.7M/73.8M

Spectre： 33.9M/469M
Transporter Refueled：27.5M/47.5M
A Fool：4.75M/9.2m
 

[mepal1]

58 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Saturday estimates
Mockingjay - Part 2：41.6M/73.8M
Our Times： 34.7M/73.8M

Spectre： 33.9M/469M
Transporter Refueled：27.5M/47.5M
A Fool：4.75M/9.2m
 

It looks like all the films have taken quite a hit this weekend.............but the latest Hunger Games film is not doing very well...is it?

Outside of North America, no one really cares for the Hunger Games franchise!

[Olive]

5 minutes ago, mepal1 said:

It looks like all the films have taken quite a hit this weekend.............but the latest Hunger Games film is not doing very well...is it?

Outside of North America, no one really cares for the Hunger Games franchise!

Yeah, Spectre is dropping 75%, ugly drop.

And MJ2 will only make what last movie made, and this market is increasing 40%+

[Lihongkim]

Feng Xiaogang won Best Lead Actor from 52 Golden Horse Award for his role in Mr. Six

[jiangsen]

3 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

Feng Xiaogang won Best Lead Actor from 52 Golden Horse Award for his role in Mr. Six

Well if you're gonna go there... Hou Hsiao-Hsien and The Assassin won Best Director and Best Picture. Karena Lam won Best Actress for Zinnia Flower. 

[jiangsen]

Our Times making a move today. 

[Lihongkim]

57 minutes ago, jiangsen said:

Well if you're gonna go there... Hou Hsiao-Hsien and The Assassin won Best Director and Best Picture. Karena Lam won Best Actress for Zinnia Flower. 

Just surprise me, he is a good director. 

 

36 minutes ago, jiangsen said:

Our Times making a move today. 

Did u mean it will win MJ 2 today?

[bangbingchan]

Spectre lost more than 67% showtimes this  weekend.it's a very awkward open window for James Bond.But it's in China.You have to accept it.

Edited November 22, 2015 by bangbingchan

[A Marvel Fanboy]

3 hours ago, jiangsen said:

Our Times making a move today. 

More, MJ2 may move down TR on Monday and Tuesday ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Hmm, Skiptrace moves to CNY while Mermaid moves to summer. Good moves to all.

Edited November 22, 2015 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2 hours ago, bangbingchan said:

Spectre lost more than 67% showtimes this  weekend.it's a very awkward open window for James Bond.But it's in China.You have to accept it.

The release window was fine, almost day and date with the world. Just the movie is not playing strong with the audience.

Edited November 22, 2015 by firedeep

[A Marvel Fanboy]

• Show count:               A-M             Spectre
• Opening Saturday ---- 37%  ---------- 44% 
• Second   Saturay ------ 22%  ---------- 14% 
• Show count drop ----- 41%  -------  68%

 

• Per show attendance: A-M             Spectre     
• Opening Saturday ---- 47  ---------- 57 
• Second   Saturay ------ 43  ---------- 45 
• Attendance drop ----- 8.5%  -------  21%

 

Apparently, in second weekend, audience much more wanted to see A-M than Spectre. That's what called WOM.

If people liked/loved Spectre but didnt have enough of it, the movie's second Saturday PSA would drop much less than 21%, maybe would even increase if show count were not enough.

 

In fact, if you give Spectre the same show count as A-M's (22%) in second weekend, its PSA would decrease to 40 people (maybe even less), a bigger drop (30%+) than 21%, compared with A-M's only 8.5%. (In other words, if A-M had the same show count on second Saturday, its PSA would probably be more than 47 (first Sat).).

 

Of course, with 22% show count, Spectre would make more box office (note: it wont make a big difference to theaters as other movies will lose audience), probably 33m x (40 x 22 / 14 x 45 ) = 46m.  But even 46m is much less than A-M's second Saturday of 61m. And Spectre had a bigger opening Sat.

 

• (In that case, second Sat box office drop: A-M -44%: 108m to 61m;  SP -62%: 122m to 46m). 

 

Just to show the difference of legs/audience WOM between to the two movies.

[Lihongkim]

49 minutes ago, firedeep said:

Hmm, Skiptrace moves to CNY while Mermaid moves to summer. Good moves to all.

That's great (-: but still too crowd  

 I wish Little Door Gods will make a move too. 

 

 

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

MJ2 may only makes $25m. 

[Quigley]

Spectre has now fallen behind Ant-Man in cume-to-date.