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firedeep

China Box Office: General Discussion Thread

30,933 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

I was referring to a  "real"drop as 20% or more. 10% or less is nominal, which can happen because of 4 vs 5 weekends, which most of the above are.

The world is not ending just yet but CBO is slowing. Will be sub 20% this year as I predicted.

LOL why don't you just define 100% decrease as "real" drop. 

 

2016 wont be down 20%, neither will Apr. Your predict of sub 20% (increase or decrease) will fail.

 

 

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Update on May schedule of imported releases:

 

5/6 TBD Captain America: Civil War 
5/20  X-Men: Apocalypse
5/20 Angry Birds
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass
6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
May TBD Baahubali: The Beginning
6/15

Warcraft

 

Note: as of current, none is officially confirmed by CFGC or Film Bureau

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1 hour ago, firedeep said:

LOL why don't you just define 100% decrease as "real" drop. 

 

2016 wont be down 20%, neither will Apr. Your predict of sub 20% (increase or decrease) will fail.

 

 

I just defined less than 10% as nominal with reason.  I used the word real meaning considerable. 3% is not considerable.25% is.

Would you like a picture?

Where did I say 2016 will be down 20%. I was referring to growth, not loss, as sub 20%. 

April will most certainly be DOWN 20%. another picture?

Edited by No Prisoners

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Sunday Estimates      
Bodyguard     57.4m /167m   +3%
Hotpot.          55.6M/141M  +13%
Zoo.               41.5M/1420M   +30%
BVS               33.7M/554M   +6%
Sleep bro       22M/68.6M    -4%

Revenant       4M/366M +21%

 

BVS weekend 83.2M -78%

Zoo weekend 82.8M -26%

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if a person are so down on China's economy and its box office, why bother keep tracking it, posting socalled insights and predictions all day, which most of the time are negative, and laughablely off.

 

I am annoyed. got put someone on agnore list.

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19 minutes ago, Olive said:

Sunday Estimates      
Bodyguard     57.4m /167m   +3%
Hotpot.          55.6M/141M  +13%
Zoo.               41.5M/1420M   +30%
BVS               33.7M/554M   +6%
Sleep bro       22M/68.6M    -4%

Revenant       4M/366M +21%

 

BVS weekend 83.2M -78%

Zoo weekend 82.8M -26%

Any projection for the final tally of ZOO?

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19 minutes ago, Olive said:

Sunday Estimates      
Bodyguard     57.4m /167m   +3%
Hotpot.          55.6M/141M  +13%
Zoo.               41.5M/1420M   +30%
BVS               33.7M/554M   +6%
Sleep bro       22M/68.6M    -4%

Revenant       4M/366M +21%

 

BVS weekend 83.2M -78%

Zoo weekend 82.8M -26%

$85M for BVS.

$95m will be the target.

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CBO Week 13

 

' content edited ...'

 

Like Monster Hunt and Bodyguard, all EDKO films are now distributed by Union Pictures. With CEOs leaving, WuZhou have undermarketed two films in a row: the Zhao Liying starred romcom Rise of Tomboy and now Hotpot. Earlier this year, their Kill Time and CTHD2 also underperformed ...

 

-----

 

I should have never returned to this site. I wanted to on this site share knowledge and information about CBO and the industry, not to see someone continuously prove how he is right and how everybody else is wrong, downplay China's box office and how it is gonna collapse, how it does not matter at all to Hollywood. It's so pointless.

 

So let the real expert do the work.  I am leaving forever, because I am often wrong with my predictions (making predictions is not a problem; I always dare to be wrong with every prediction I make, all these years), feel have no value to this site, and yes because I am annoyed.

 

Thank you in advance if any moderator can help delete my profile and all posts on this site, would be very appreciated. Maybe I will just ask Shawn to see if it's possible.

 

It's been 5 years. Thank you everyone, everyone I mean, too many friends to name but thank you all, you know I am talking of you B).

(I can be reached on Wechat in case you are interested. Maybe Olive could tell you about wechat.)

Edited by firedeep
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Will movies be flat tomorrow or will we see soft drops?

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33 minutes ago, leatherjacket said:

Any projection for the final tally of ZOO?

Around 1.53-1.54B yuan.

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34 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Will movies be flat tomorrow or will we see soft drops?

Soft drops,

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4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Soft drops,

 

Thanks:)

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1 hour ago, firedeep said:

if a person are so down on China's economy and its box office, why bother keep tracking it, posting socalled insights and predictions all day, which most of the time are negative, and laughablely off.

 

I am annoyed. got put someone on agnore list.

You saying 600m dead on BVS dead is positive and correct? No

Thursdays box box will be lowest day of the year thanks to BvS. Negative and wrong again.

You shit on a lot of movies with a condescending tone.

I said the BO last year was 7B not 6.7B because the XR was not calculated properly for the year. Where the negativity in that?

Who was saying MH would take down FF7 after the second weekend? Was i negative or wrong in saying that. 

Was I negative when I said FF7 400m? And you said 365n.  Who was negative and more wrong. 

I'm not down on the economy, the economy is going down. Wake up and smell the catfood. Read an article or two.

Be annoyed at yourself

Following BO is about truth in numbers. Ascending or descending. No matter. Why am i here? Cause youre screwing the pooch on the data. You just blow toxic wind. Put yourself on ignore

 

Edited by No Prisoners
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China is like the US, movie goers judge films based on reviews/wom from review sites that are equivalent to IMDB, Metacritic, and Rotten Tomatoes. Great reviews and audience reaction equals good box office, Zootopia is a great example of this.

 

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2 hours ago, firedeep said:

CBO Week 13

 

' content edited ...'

 

Like Monster Hunt and Bodyguard, all EDKO films are now distributed by Union Pictures. With CEOs leaving, WuZhou have undermarketed two films in a row: the Zhao Liying starred romcom Rise of Tomboy and now Hotpot. Earlier this year, their Kill Time and CTHD2 also underperformed ...

 

-----

 

I should have never returned to this site. I wanted to on this site share knowledge and information about CBO and the industry, not to see someone continuously prove how he is right and how everybody else is wrong, downplay China's box office and how it is gonna collapse, how it does not matter at all to Hollywood. It's so pointless.

 

So let the real expert do the work.  I am leaving forever, because I am often wrong with my predictions (making predictions is not a problem; I always dare to be wrong with every prediction I make, all these years), feel have no value to this site, and yes because I am annoyed.

 

Thank you in advance if any moderator can help delete my profile and all posts on this site, would be very appreciated. Maybe I will just ask Shawn to see if it's possible.

 

It's been 5 years. Thank you everyone, everyone I mean, too many friends to name but thank you all, you know I am talking of you B).

(I can be reached on Wechat in case you are interested. Maybe Olive could tell you about wechat.)

 

Firedeep there is no need to leave.  Your information is a great resource.  Just place anyone that bothers you on ignore (I have).  You should never let anyone else detract you from doing and sharing what you enjoy. 

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There is no justification in downplaying the contribution of @firedeep on this board.

His intuitive prediction and knowledge about the Chinese BO has been very helpful and enlightening to the other members.

 

No Prisoners has created a very solid predictive method based on the presales number, but without the internal understanding of the Chinese BO, it is not complete and lacking the big picture of the market. Again, numbers by itself, is not meaningful without the description. 

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http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2016/04/03/zootopia-now-chinas-leggiest-movie-ever-closes-in-on-disneys-ultron-record-240-million/#6334af871819 Amazing achievement! :wub:

 

Per Forbes,

 

'Zootopia' Now China's Leggiest Movie Ever, Closes In On Disney's 'Ultron' Record $240 Million

 

Zootopia has had what is now officially the leggiest box office run in history for a wide opener in China. Its 62x multiple from its opening day of 22.9 million yuan (US$3.5 million) has beaten out the 61.9x opening day multiple that local language comedy Goodbye Mr. Loser achieved in October, 2015, when it captivated audiences last fall with a 1.4 billion yuan ($227 million) total run after a 23 million yuan opening day. It also recently beat the animation record multiple of 53.1x that had been set by last summer’s Monkey King: Hero is Back.

 

 

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10 hours ago, firedeep said:

Update on May schedule of imported releases:

 

5/6 TBD Captain America: Civil War 
5/20  X-Men: Apocalypse
5/20 Angry Birds
5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass
6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
May TBD Baahubali: The Beginning
6/15

Warcraft

 

Note: as of current, none is officially confirmed by CFGC or Film Bureau

Angry Birds is going to get destroyed

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On 4/3/2016 at 10:29 AM, firedeep said:

if a person are so down on China's economy and its box office, why bother keep tracking it, posting socalled insights and predictions all day, which most of the time are negative, and laughablely off.

 

I am annoyed. got put someone on agnore list.

Well, there are legitimate concerns about the Chinese economy. It's not clear how the box office will be affected, though.

Edited by cannastop

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I won't pretend to be an expert on China's current financial state, but when North America had its housing crisis recession last decade (which was the worst economic downturn in ~70 years) the domestic box office was barely affected. Unless people are starving in the streets, they are probably still going to want entertainment. 

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