Jump to content

A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

Recommended Posts



25 minutes ago, MattW said:

If it stays in theaters past the 30 day period i could possibly see it reaching 2900, but aside from that I'm getting 2700-2800 as well when i work it out.

 

Have you seen the May release schedule? There's a big release pretty much every week. Given the front loaded nature of the market, I doubt it'd still have enough screens after one month for an extension to matter.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, druv10 said:

Yeah, even with great score on Maoyan holds have been pretty mediocre. I guess movies have an upper limit in China as well. It has burned off too much demand over the first 4 days to maintain normal drops, I was hoping for 3B. At this point, I don't see that happening, more like 2.7-2.8B.

 

Yeah. Around 2.7B is where its headed i guess. Still a great number though

Link to comment
Share on other sites



WED Estimates
 
before service charges
Fate of the Furious  -  89.3m / 1,616m
A Chinese Odyssey Part Two  -  7.5m / 124.4m
Kong: Skull Island  -  0.74m / 1.094b
Ghost in the Shell  -  0.67m / 186.9m
 
after service charges
Fate of the Furious  -  93.5m / 1,732m
A Chinese Odyssey Part Two  -  8m / 134.4m
Kong: Skull Island  -  0.78m / 1.157b
Ghost in the Shell  -  0.7m / 198.6m

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites



8 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

Makes me really wonder where Friday-Sunday is going to be... 60% drop or bigger expected?

Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk
 

 

My best guess is 70-75% drop

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



10 minutes ago, Mrstickball said:

Makes me really wonder where Friday-Sunday is going to be... 60% drop or bigger expected?

Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk
 

If it follows F7 holds, it's looking at a 72%+ drop. So far, it's holding worse, maybe it gets healthy jump on Friday and avoids 70% drop but regardless it's in for a high 60s drop for sure to low to mid 70s.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Based on POTUS's chart from the previous page, with exactly the same holds as FF7 from here on, it would earn a ¥377m weekend (-72%). So far, its been consistently holding worse than that movie.

 

The one hope it has to end with a sub 70% drop (65%+ is all but guaranteed) is the Friday bump. FF7 had a muted  24% bump and I suppose it's because business spilled over the whole first set of weekdays. Otherwise, FF8 might tumble 70-75%.

 

This is why I said in the "When will China pass DOM thread" that additional screens, abandoning protection periods or import quotas won't have any effect in CBO growth. You'd simply have movies becoming "one week wonders" like POTUS said. If a movie with good WOM and little competition like FF8 can plunge by 70% then what about movies with average/bad WOM and competition? We've seen with GitS from this past weekend that a 95% to 99% drop isn't out of the question.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites



33 minutes ago, Agafin said:

This is why I said in the "When will China pass DOM thread" that additional screens, abandoning protection periods or import quotas won't have any effect in CBO growth. 

 

Any is maybe a bit much, but you are right, I don't remember much movies not getting a China release because of the quota last year, nor any movie that was still playing strong removed from theater because it expired is time (and not because local movie competition took all the place, that would still happen I imagine)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



20 minutes ago, Cookson said:

How does China fix these huge drops? It's not just F8, but there's always plenty of films that drop huge its second week. "One week wonder" is exactly right... But I don't know how you eliviate it.

The drops happen because of the amount of seats available on OW. In Dom AoU and JW may have 14k of 40k screens and sell 20m tickets OW out of their 45m to 60m total. FF8 had 30k screens of 44k. 38m tickets sold OW in a market with admissions just slightly over dom annually. Their model is to oversaturate to an anticipatory audience. Japan seldom gives more than 15% of screens to an opener.  They like to wait and see what others think first.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites







5 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wow, a 70% drop would be insanely brutal for F8...

 

Is that a new BVS? Damn.

 

I hope the movie recovers.

 

Yeahhh. Don't hold your breath on that one... 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites









Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.