China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[vc2002]

 

5 hours ago, vc2002 said:

This $100m TF5 buyout is totally a rumor. It has no reliable source whatsoever. In fact it's likely a publicity stunt by the distributor itself.

 

 

3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

It's real. ￥2,400 million box office minimum-guarantee for TF5.

 

xXx ￥600m, GITS ￥600m

 

The report says ￥2600m, not 2400m.

 

It's not real because none of the "reports" quoted any reliable source. This minimum-guarantee report initially came from QQ.com which only said "according to some insider". We've been following movies long enough to know that everytime you see "according to some insider" or "according to some source", you better not take it seriously. In fact you better not take any entertainment-business-related report seriously unless it has a reliable source.

 

And here's why it's likely a publicity stunt. Weiying Shidai Co.,Ltd., according to that report, is the leader of the group buy of TF5's minimum-guarantee distribution in China. Well, the only thing we can be sure is that Weiying Shidai Co.,Ltd. is one of investors of TF5, and quite possibly the biggest one from China. Tencent (the mother company of wechat) is one of the biggest investors of Weiying Shidai, and Tencent also owns QQ.com. So it's very likely that Weiying Shidai decides to use this ￥2600m shocking number for attracting attention, and its brother company QQ.com decides to help.

 

We all know nowadays publicity stunts are too common in China's entertainment business, so better keep a sharp eye out for these reports.

 

BTW the CEO of Weiying Shidai actually denied that report a couple of days ago. He said they were only one of the investors of TF5, and they didn't participate in any type of minimum-guarantee distribution of TF5 in China. That's as good as him saying this ￥2600m minimum-guarantee is bulllshit, because he's obviously not in the position of directly denying that ￥2600m.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by vc2002

[Gavin Feng]

2 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

 

 

The report says ￥2600m, not 2400m.

 

It's not real because none of the "reports" quoted any reliable source. This minimum-guarantee report initially came from QQ.com which only said "according to some insider". We've been following movies long enough to know that everytime you see "according to some insider" or "according to some source", you better not take it seriously. In fact you better not take any entertainment-business-related report seriously unless it has a reliable source.

 

And here's why it's likely a publicity stunt. Weiying Shidai Co.,Ltd., according to that report, is the leader of the group buy of TF5's minimum-guarantee distribution in China. Well, the only thing we can be sure is that Weiying Shidai Co.,Ltd. is one of investors of TF5, and quite possibly the biggest one from China. Tencent (the mother company of wechat) is one of the biggest investors of Weiying Shidai, and Tencent also owns QQ.com. So it's very likely that Weiying Shidai decides to use this ￥2600m shocking number for attracting attention, and its brother company QQ.com decides to help.

 

We all know nowadays publicity stunts are too common in China's entertainment business, so better keep a sharp eye out for these reports.

 

BTW the CEO of Weiying Shidai actually denied that report a couple of days ago. He said they were only one of the investors of TF5, and they didn't participate in any type of minimum-guarantee distribution of TF5 in China. That's as good as him saying this ￥2600m minimum-guarantee is bulllshit, because he's obviously not in the position of directly denying that ￥2600m.

 

 

 

 

 

The writer of those reports sucks. ￥2,600 million is a fake number he made. The real number is ￥2,400 million.

[vc2002]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

The writer of those reports sucks. ￥2,600 million is a fake number he made. The real number is ￥2,400 million.

 

Jesus I almost forgot this. You can't do minimum-guarantee distribution on imported films.

 

This kind of minimum-guarantee distribution deal is only for distributing local films by non-state-owned distributors who are willing to gamble. Imported films can only be distributed by two state owned companies, and they're not allowed to do this kind of act.

 

Imported films can also come under the buyout deal, but that're mostly for small films. Big budget blockbusters are almost always imported under revenue-sharing terms, which the two state owned companies do the distribution as explained above.

 

So there is no such thing as minimum-guarantee distribution for imported films in the first place. 

 

That article is just a whole bunch of bullshit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2017 by vc2002

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I don't think TF5 flopped because the tastes of Chinese audiences suddenly dramatically 'improved'.

 

IMO the tastes of Chinese audiences have pretty much remained the same in the past few years. When it comes to imported movies, they have always dug those of "strong emotional strikes" (Dangal, Interstellar), "great spectaculars" — not necessarily only actions & explosions, all great money shots count (most studio blockbusters, FF & TF stands out), "colorful visuals" (Avatar, Life of Pi), "adorable character designs" (Zootopia, Illumination Entertainment toons), "smart, fast-pacing but still followable storytelling" (Inception, Mission Impossible) i.e. your movie should look smart but not to extent of making audiences confused while watching—Inception, The Butterfly Effect and Triangle alike will be considered must-watching but Mulholland Dr. would make audiences want to kill themselves... Of course, being an established IP also helps a lot. Obviously, Triple X had a good deal of spectaculars; RE6 was the final chapter of a well established IP—plus it was a good feat for the horror fans in China. Your movie will break all records if it is strong in all parts, like Avatar.

 

Hit or miss in China, it has little to do with rotten tomatoes scores. It's all about the receptions of general audiences. Also, to hit it big in China, your movie cannot be too culturally rooted (Moana...also, I think GOTG2 underperformed because deep down, its core of 'patricide' conflicts with Chinese culture). Pixar makes masterpieces. But they fail in China because their works are too American, as well perceived not children-friendly enough. And the new Star Wars films ...... are too old-fashioned (Chinese general audience: you say this is a big, expensive sci-fi space blockbuster, but where are the beautiful colors and ships??)

 

The problem with TF5 this time, is that it simply lacks exciting moments and climaxes. Bay should focus on the robots (though, technically, Transformers are not robots, they are just silicon based aliens) and robots fighting, not some random, boring human characters that absolutely no one cares about. TF5 is still doing 1.7B only because of franchise inertia. Anyway, the page has been turned. Transformers now has to be rebooted.

 

 

Weiying did not participate in the minimum-guarantee box office deal of TF5. Though they did invest one or two cents in TF5 for global profits. As of I know, the minimum-guarantee deal was made between Huahua (party A) and a dozen of smaller investors (party bb) led by a fund. Deal details is not disclosed but the number is believed to be 2.7B. yes, those group buy investors will lose a lot of money. But the deal was made last year, and money was paid last year——Paramount did receive close to $100m from TF5 in China, long before TF5 even finished shooting, and they certainly didn't see it flopping...

 

Also we should be clear that Paramount has long lost their control on the distribution and marketing of their own movies in China. All Paramount films are now handled by Huahua in China which is also a slate-financer of Paramount along with Shanghai Film Group in a $1 billion deal. Desipte all the media make it sound to be, Huahua is a not a Chinese company: it is owned by the Ganis (former President of AMPAS). Anyway, Huahua shops movies to local distributors and minimum box office guaranteers for Paramount (xxx, GITS, TF5 all so). Today, pretty much every HLW studio film, including those not even released in China, has some sort of Chinese investors, except those from Disney who perfer 100% control on their inhouse titles.

Edited July 3, 2017 by firedeep

[fmpro]

firedeep is back!!!!! ^

 

Thanks for a great post 

[vc2002]

1 hour ago, firedeep said:

 

Weiying did not participate in the minimum-guarantee box office deal of TF5. Though they did invest one or two cents in TF5 for global profits. As of I know, the minimum-guarantee deal was made between Huahua (party A) and a dozen of smaller investors (party bb) led by a fund. Deal details is not disclosed but the number is believed to be 2.7B. yes, those group buy investors will lose a lot of money. But the deal was made last year, and money was paid last year——Paramount did receive close to $100m from TF5 in China, long before TF5 even finished shooting, and they certainly didn't see it flopping...

 

 

Also we should be clear that Paramount has long lost their control on the distribution and marketing of their own movies in China. All Paramount films are now handled by Huahua in China which is also a slate-financer of Paramount along with Shanghai Film Group in a $1 billion deal. Desipte all the media make it sound to be, Huahua is a not a Chinese company: it is owned by the Ganis (former President of AMPAS). Anyway, Huahua shops movies to local distributors and minimum box office guaranteers for Paramount (xxx, GITS, TF5 all so). Today, pretty much every HLW studio film, including those not even released in China, has some sort of Chinese investors, except those from Disney who perfer 100% control on their inhouse titles.

 

So, what you said sounds like a buyout outside China, but still imported as a revenue-sharing movie. Imported not from Paramount directly, but from the group buyers (including Huahua) who operate overseas and basically bought the right (a China release) from Paramount for $100m. As for the China release, it's still imported under the usual revenue-sharing terms, but the deal is made between CFGC and the group buyers (not Paramount).

 

Is that right?

[juni78ukr]

I also wonder all the time why not a single US source mentioned it. 

[Gavin Feng]

Box office minimum-guarantee can't happen on import films? That's the biggest joke I ever heard. 

 

A friend was involved in the minimum-guarantee of Ghost in the Shell. Believe it or not.

 

I only offer useful informations to people who really wanna know. Not for silly arguments.

[Gavin Feng]

MON

before service charges

TF5  -  27.5m / 1,294m

Reset  -  16.1m / 127.1m

Our Time Will Come  -  6.13m / 38m

Wished  -  5.45m / 48.5m

Paths of the Soul  -  3.94m / 60.1m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.51m / 52.8m

Dangal  -  0.95m / 1,197m

 

after service charges

TF5  -  29.3m / 1,376m

Reset  -  17.2m / 135.7m

Our Time Will Come  -  6.4m / 39.9m

Wished  -  6m / 52.8m

Paths of the Soul  -  4.3m / 65.4m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.85m / 57.8m

Dangal  -  1.04m / 1,298m

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

So, what you said sounds like a buyout outside China, but still imported as a revenue-sharing movie. Imported not from Paramount directly, but from the group buyers (including Huahua) who operate overseas and basically bought the right (a China release) from Paramount for $100m. As for the China release, it's still imported under the usual revenue-sharing terms, but the deal is made between CFGC and the group buyers (not Paramount).

 

Is that right?

It can be put that way.

 

Imported revenue-sharing films (aka quota releases) of course can do minimum-guarantee box office. Currently, revenue-sharing films and buyout films are handled basically in the same way, though it can vary a little title by title. The main difference comes to how box office is split among the producer [A], CFGC/Huaxia , Chinese co-distributor [C](this one is the real distributor FYI, but you have to put CFGC/huaxia in the front) and the Chinese buyer [D] (with or without a minimum-guarantee box office deal), not to forget the theaters... Every ABCD is different for every title. For a typical quota release without any minimum-guarantee box office deal, A=25%, B and C are both CFGC & Huaxia, D=0%; for a quota release with a minimum-guarantee box office deal, or a buyout release with, or without, a similar deal, A=0%, B is CFGC or Huaxia, C=3%~10+%, D=13%~25%. It should be noted the buyer is not necessarily the co-distributor itself. Currently, almost only Disney flicks remain to be typical quota releases.

 

LeVP almost did a 500m minimum box office guarantee on Wonder Woman but they were not confident enough to seal the deal. WW did get investments from Tencent and Wanda though.

 

Also, to say "minimum-guarantee box office" sometimes can be a little misleading. What is really guranteed in such a deal is the profits of the producer. In reality, the so-called "minimum-guarantee box office number" is often backwarded for publicity based on how much upfront fees the buyer pay to the producer. The producer gets extra revenues if the movie overperforms. In the case of TF5, Huahua was offered $100m upfront fees, which resulted into "TF5 guaranteed 2.6B box office"

 

It usually goes like this:

 

studio A produces movie [a], Chinese buyer B buys movie [a] from A with some upfront fees——sometimes only theatrical sometimes including streaming, A or B submit movie [a] to CFGC to clear the censorship, B finds local distributor C to distribute the movie in China and D (online) & E (offline) to promote the movie. In reality, movie [a] has different distributors and marketing partners in different parts of the world, and it also has global investors FGHI (Dune, Regency, Skydance, Bona, Perfect World, Alibaba, Wanda...) including one or two from China on slate or single flick deals. Smaller studios like Studio 8, STX are invested by Chinese money from day one. B could consist of a handful of companies and parties JKLMNOP and each of them would have a different beak even point; that is usally the case. B could re-sell movie [a] to Q or put up a fund based on the movie's performance to attract a lot more smaller investors. Further, if a local film, A can be as many as a dozen of different producers.... check out the upcoming comedy The One (绝世高手), it has 15 different producers, maybe more....didnt count. And every producer would also have different beak even points... 

 

It could be complex as hell but tha'ts the gameplay.

Edited July 3, 2017 by firedeep

[POTUS 2020]

Dangal holding -35% WoW. Thats impressive considering leggy movies dont hold up that well into their 9th week. Its not listed for showtimes after the 4th. It will reach 1298m/ $189m unless it is extended.

[vc2002]

6 hours ago, firedeep said:

It can be put that way.

 

 

 

Cool. Thanks.

[Gavin Feng]

TUE

before service charges

TF5  -  24.8m / 1,320m

Reset  -  14.6m / 141.9m

Our Time Will Come  -  5.65m / 44.1m

Wished  -  4.77m / 53.5m

Paths of the Soul  -  3.87m / 63.9m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.47m / 56.7m

Dangal  -  0.93m / 1,198m(lifetime gross)

 

after service charges

TF5  -  26.5m / 1,403m

Reset  -  15.6m / 151.6m

Our Time Will Come  -  5.85m / 46.2m

Wished  -  5.2m / 58.2m

Paths of the Soul  -  4.2m / 69.6m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.7m / 61.8m

Dangal  -  1m / 1,298.9m(lifetime gross)

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Dangal
Day	Date		Rank	Gross		% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				RMB / M	USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Previews	Apr.30 - May. 2		-	¥0.33	$0.05	-	-	$0.05	0	$0.05	-
Fri	May. 5		2	¥15.85	$2.30	-	-	$2.34	1	$12.63	-
Sat	May. 6		2	¥32.51	$4.71	100.92%	-	$7.05	2
Sun	May. 7		2	¥38.46	$5.57	18.29%	-	$12.63	3
Mon	May. 8		2	¥21.06	$3.05	-45.24%	-	$15.68	4	$48.82	286.67%
Tue	May. 9		2	¥24.57	$3.56	16.67%	-	$19.24	5
Wed	May. 10		1	¥27.47	$3.98	11.83%	-	$23.22	6
Thu	May. 11		1	¥27.60	$4.00	0.47%	-	$27.22	7
Fri	May. 12		1	¥44.40	$6.43	60.86%	174.42%	$33.65	8
Sat	May. 13		1	¥97.10	$14.07	118.68%	198.67%	$47.72	9
Sun	May. 14		1	¥94.77	$13.73	-2.39%	146.44%	$61.45	10
Mon	May. 15		1	¥34.81	$5.04	-63.27%	65.29%	$66.49	11	$52.16	6.84%
Tue	May. 16		1	¥32.74	$4.74	-5.93%	33.27%	$71.24	12
Wed	May. 17		1	¥29.33	$4.25	-10.41%	6.77%	$75.48	13
Thu	May. 18		1	¥26.36	$3.82	-10.13%	-4.50%	$79.30	14
Fri	May. 19		1	¥42.01	$6.09	59.38%	-5.38%	$85.39	15
Sat	May. 20		1	¥113.31	$16.42	169.70%	16.70%	$101.81	16
Sun	May. 21		1	¥81.47	$11.80	-28.10%	-14.04%	$113.61	17
Mon	May. 22		1	¥23.62	$3.42	-71.01%	-32.15%	$117.03	18	$23.33	-55.27%
Tue	May. 23		1	¥21.69	$3.14	-8.17%	-33.77%	$120.18	19
Wed	May. 24		1	¥19.92	$2.89	-8.16%	-32.10%	$123.06	20
Thu	May. 25		1	¥17.70	$2.57	-11.10%	-32.84%	$125.63	21
Fri	May. 26		2	¥13.21	$1.91	-25.40%	-68.56%	$127.54	22
Sat	May. 27		2	¥19.84	$2.87	50.22%	-82.49%	$130.41	23
Sun	May. 28		2	¥45.07	$6.53	127.16%	-44.68%	$136.94	24
Mon	May. 29		2	¥56.18	$8.14	24.66%	137.90%	$145.08	25	$30.38	30.23%
Tue	May. 30		2	¥44.09	$6.39	-21.53%	103.30%	$151.47	26
Wed	May. 31		2	¥13.38	$1.94	-69.65%	-32.82%	$153.41	27
Thu	Jun. 1		3	¥32.43	$4.70	142.38%	83.18%	$158.11	28
Fri	Jun. 2		3	¥11.82	$1.71	-63.54%	-10.47%	$159.82	29
Sat	Jun. 3		3	¥27.30	$3.95	130.84%	37.58%	$163.78	30
Sun	Jun. 4		3	¥24.51	$3.55	-10.19%	-45.61%	$167.33	31
Mon	Jun. 5		3	¥8.04	$1.17	-67.19%	-85.68%	$168.49	32	$9.69	-68.10%
Tue	Jun. 6		3	¥8.48	$1.23	5.47%	-80.76%	$169.72	33
Wed	Jun. 7		3	¥7.89	$1.14	-6.93%	-41.00%	$170.87	34
Thu	Jun. 8		4	¥7.49	$1.09	-5.14%	-76.91%	$171.95	35
Fri	Jun. 9		5	¥7.13	$1.03	-4.73%	-39.66%	$172.99	36
Sat	Jun. 10		4	¥14.57	$2.11	104.22%	-46.62%	$175.10	37
Sun	Jun. 11		4	¥13.29	$1.93	-8.80%	-45.79%	$177.02	38
Mon	Jun. 12		4	¥4.91	$0.71	-63.07%	-38.98%	$177.73	39	$6.09	-37.19%
Tue	Jun. 13		4	¥4.75	$0.69	-3.11%	-43.95%	$178.42	40
Wed	Jun. 14		4	¥4.47	$0.65	-5.90%	-43.33%	$179.07	41
Thu	Jun. 15		5	¥4.38	$0.63	-2.06%	-41.49%	$179.70	42
Fri	Jun. 16		5	¥3.91	$0.57	-10.79%	-45.21%	$180.27	43
Sat	Jun. 17		5	¥9.19	$1.33	135.04%	-36.94%	$181.60	44
Sun	Jun. 18		4	¥10.41	$1.51	13.26%	-21.69%	$183.11	45
Mon	Jun. 19		5	¥3.57	$0.52	-65.68%	-27.20%	$183.63	46	$2.95	-51.52%
Tue	Jun. 20		5	¥3.57	$0.52	-0.15%	-24.98%	$184.14	47
Wed	Jun. 21		5	¥3.57	$0.52	0.00%	-20.27%	$184.66	48
Thu	Jun. 22		6	¥3.49	$0.51	-2.25%	-20.43%	$185.17	49
Fri	Jun. 23		9	¥1.04	$0.15	-70.29%	-73.50%	$185.32	50
Sat	Jun. 24		7	¥2.43	$0.35	134.61%	-73.55%	$185.67	51
Sun	Jun. 25		6	¥2.71	$0.39	11.63%	-73.93%	$186.06	52
Mon	Jun. 26		6	¥1.59	$0.23	-41.58%	-55.63%	$186.29	53	$1.72	-41.65%
Tue	Jun. 27		6	¥1.83	$0.27	15.52%	-48.67%	$186.56	54
Wed	Jun. 28		6	¥1.96	$0.28	7.17%	-44.99%	$186.84	55
Thu	Jun. 29		8	¥1.56	$0.23	-20.55%	-55.29%	$187.07	56
Fri	Jun. 30		9	¥1.12	$0.16	-28.14%	8.15%	$187.23	57
Sat	Jul. 1		11	¥1.69	$0.24	50.80%	-30.49%	$187.47	58
Sun	Jul. 2		8	¥2.14	$0.31	26.70%	-21.10%	$187.78	59
Mon	Jul. 3		8	¥1.02	$0.15	-52.53%	-35.89%	$187.93	60	$0.29	-83.04%
Tue	Jul. 4		8	¥1.00	$0.14	-1.59%	-45.39%	$188.08	61
								Lifetime Gross = $188.08 million
								Multiple = 14.9
								Exchange Rate: $1=￥6.902

[Gavin Feng]

WED

before service charges

TF5  -  23m / 1,343m

Reset  -  13.3m / 155.2m

Wished  -  5.01m / 58.6m

Our Time Will Come  -  5.17m / 49m

Paths of the Soul  -  3.87m / 67.9m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.67m / 60.5m

 

after service charges

TF5  -  24.6m / 1,428m

Reset  -  14.3m / 166.1m

Wished  -  5.45m / 63.7m

Our Time Will Come  -  5.4m / 51.4m

Paths of the Soul  -  4.2m / 73.9m

77 Heartbreaks  -  3.9m / 65.6m

[ymblcza]

TF5 may less than 10m tomorrow,even higher drop than last Friday.

Edited July 6, 2017 by ymblcza

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, ymblcza said:

TF5 may less than 10m tomorrow,even higher drop than last Friday.

Itll be close. PS heading to 1.8m itll be around 10m -80%+ WoW. 1525-1550m final.  1.75x OW

 

DM3 PS will reach 32-33m . 115-135m OD expected. It has an 8.8 Maoyan rating.  Not bad but not great. Might reach 500m OW and beat Dom OW.  Not sure how big the sat bump will be. 

 

Edited July 6, 2017 by POTUS

[ymblcza]

On 2017/7/4 at 10:58 PM, Gavin Feng said:

Sat

I guess Dangal has a chance to achieve top 10 on 1st July if Battle of Xiangjiang River didn't fudge.

 

5 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Itll be close. PS heading to 1.8m itll be around 10m -80%+ WoW. 1525-1550m final.  1.75x OW

 

DM3 PS will reach 32-33m . 115-135m OD expected. It has an 8.8 Maoyan rating.  Not bad but not great. Might reach 500m OW and beat Dom OW.  Not sure how big the sat bump will be. 

 

Jump in summer won't be big may around 25% though opening day is good enough beating Minions's Sunday opening.

[ymblcza]

Sorry,oversubmitted.The network connection often sucks.

Edited July 6, 2017 by ymblcza

[POTUS 2020]

DM3 tracking over 140m OD