Sunshine, Light, and Joy

 

This is a post that I've been thinking about for awhile. Recently, I opened up the discussion to other members of the staff to get their feelings on the matter, and their opinions generally matched mine, which is this:

Within the last year or so, there's been a steady increase of negative posts in movie threads. We've always had some heated discussions for some movies, but recently things have not only gotten more histrionic in those threads (generally speaking, the CBM ones), but they've started to spread to other franchises and other movies as well. I'm not talking about out-and-out trolling, I'm talking about members feeling they have to consistently shit on a movie (or studio, or star) simply because they aren't interested in the current project or projects. With every piece of news about a movie, it's now a virtual guarantee that there's a flood of people rushing to say they think it sucks, they don't like the current trailer/tv spot/actor/actress/director/concept. And I get it -- we all have movies we don't like, movies which we think are bad ideas, industry people that just don't appeal to us. But there's a fine line between expressing your opinion about this and doing it so often, with such consistency, that the collective emphasis of all of it basically brings down the entire thread and thus the entire forum.

There's no easy answer to this. We don't want to crush freedom of expression here. But at the same time, the spirit of this forum is for people to have fun talking about the movies they love and the box-office runs they love.

To have fun.

And while it may be fun -- in a sense -- to personally vent about a movie, or to vent at people who dare to enjoy something you don't, it doesn't bring fun to our community. In fact, it generally drags down the overall fun for everyone else. We've had people repeatedly mention to us over the last several months or so that in some cases they don't even bother going into some threads -- even for movies they're curious about! -- because they just don't want to deal with the overall mess those threads contain. And frankly, that matches the personal opinion of most of the staff as well.

So this post is both a request and a warning. 

The request: Next time you feel like taking a dump on a movie (or a topic) for the dozenth time, take a moment to consider whether it's really worth it. People probably already have a good idea of what your attitude about the project is. Maybe just put your posting energy into a movie that you enjoy and love or are excited about.

The warning: The staff is going to be taking a closer look at some of these threads and we'll be more active with temp thread-bans if we think it'll help the overall vibe of the forum. I'd rather we don't have to, but it's not going to constrain any of you too much if you aren't allowed to post about a movie you supposedly don't care about anyway.

Remember the words of Bill and Ted: "Be Excellent to Each Other".

They're just movies, guys. It's about having fun.

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Bluebomb

Hong Kong
HK 7/28 EST: Typhoon will strike HK on Tuesday; Cold War 2 biggest Chinese film all time; Jason Bourne biggest OW in franchise, guns down Ice Age 5; Ice Age 5 makes no splash; Suicide Squad 8/4

2,869 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, The Good Olive said:

cinetel‘s numbers:

MJ1 - 1.91m hkd

MJ2 - 1.70m hkd

Cinetel is way too low on MJ2. It had 3D prices that allowed it to beat MJ1's OD despite subpar admissions. It's not very reliable as a source.

 

    Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)             Nov 9-15
LW TW Title Last Week (HKD) This Week (HKD) Days in release % chg Total (HKD) This Week (USD) Total (USD)
1 1 Spectre $17,596,657 $13,011,788 11 -26.1% $30,665,335 $1,682,305 $3,964,748
-- 2 Return of the Cuckoo -- $4,984,901 4 -- $4,984,901 $644,502 $644,502
2 3 Our Times $6,057,828 $3,650,825 32 -39.7% $40,121,509 $472,018 $5,187,345
4 4 She Remembers, He Forgets $2,657,900 $3,538,537 11 +33.1% $6,196,437 $457,500 $801,142
3 5 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse $3,234,185 $2,097,319 18 -35.2% $7,915,670 $271,164 $1,023,423
5 6 Bridge of Spies $1,340,790 $642,310 25 -52.1% $8,662,703 $83,044 $1,120,008
-- 7 Knock Knock -- $601,134 4 -- $601,134 $77,721 $77,721
-- 8 Suffragette -- $285,274 4 -- $285,274 $36,883 $36,883
9 9 The Intern $420,854 $239,224 53 -43.2% $29,493,453 $30,929 $3,813,234
-- 10 The Green Inferno -- $237,695 4 -- $251,897 $30,731 $30,731
Spectre's drop on its 2nd week shows just how weak its legs are. As far as 2nd week drops go, that is one of the higher 2nd week drops by a blockbuster this year. Ok debut for Return of the Cuckoo. Weekday holds are inflating Our Times week to week hold. Strong for She Remembers, He Forgets. This will pass 1m by next week. Scouts Guide passed 1m this week, a superb gross for a film of this magnitude.

Thursday estimates
1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $284,439
2. Spectre - $4,266,599
3. Return of the Cuckoo - $905,036
4. She Remembers, He Forgets - $930,894
5. Our Times - $5,300,926
Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse - $1,098,972
Lost in Hong Kong - $3,878 (11 people per showing average!)

3D definitely pushed Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 over Part 1. It is up 10-22% over Part 1's OD. 2D will receive a big push this weekend with many theaters swapping 3D for 2D or giving 2D more showtimes. You know 3D is not doing well when a leading 3D theater swaps out 3D entirely for 2D on the weekend!

Spectre should have no trouble passing Skyfall or 5m in 2-3 weeks time.

Return of the Cuckoo has had a decent run so far and will pass 1m by this weekend.

She Remembers, He Forgets is also on the train toward 1m this weekend.

Our Times has a had pretty good run so far and will finish in the 5.5-5.6m range.

 

 

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Last 3 Bond grosses

 

Skyfall - $37,769,692 HK ($4,879,584)
Quantum of Solace - $2,550,839
Casino Royale - $2,956,570

Less than 5m HK to go before Spectre becomes the highest grossing Bond film.

 

 

  Friday       November 20
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 24,085 -- +25.1%
2 Spectre 18,747 7,266 -61.2% +58.4%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 11,791 5,430 -53.9% +47.5%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 5,510 4,595 -16.6% +55.3%
5 Our Times 5,885 2,872 -51.2% +76.5%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 3,320 1,224 -63.1% +29.3%
7 Daughter -- 661 -- +52.0%
8 Lost in Hong Kong -- 653 -- +59.3%
9 Zinnia Flower -- 561 -- +51.2%
10 Bridge of Spies 967 413 -57.3% +44.4%

Pretty bad for Hunger Games Mockingjay 2. Spectre didn't hold well. Not good for Return of the Cuckoo. She Remembers held up nicely. Better for Our Times. Terrible hold for Scouts Guide.

  Saturday adm. (so far)     November 21
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 17,069 -- +59.5%
2 Spectre 12,837 4,413 -65.6% +48.6%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 7,296 3,194 -56.2% +41.8%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 2,817 2,005 -28.8% +23.5%
5 Our Times 2,503 1,122 -55.2% +39.2%
6 The Anthem of the Heart -- 460 -- --
7 Bridge of Spies 645 289 -55.2% +73.1%
8 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 779 267 -65.7% +37.6%
9 Zinnia Flower -- 234 -- +46.3%
10 Lost in Hong Kong -- 229 -- --

Before anyone jumps for joy at that increase for Hunger Games, many theaters increased or completely switched Hunger Games to 2D on Saturday and afterward saw a bump in adm. pre-sales. Horrible for Spectre and Return of the Cuckoo. She Remembers is still ahead of the rest of the holdovers but it too saw its pre-sales drop a bit from last Saturday.

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bluebomb, whats the final total of PK in hK..how does it compare to 3I ??

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13 hours ago, CoolK said:

bluebomb, whats the final total of PK in hK..how does it compare to 3I ??

PK - $127,860 OW (including previews)/$868,652 total (6.79 multiplier)

3 Idiots - $73,554 OW/$3,019,322 (41.05 multiplier)

 

I'm shocked that PK did not pass 1m. I think with a better distributor or even with more theaters from UA this would have passed 1m. Regardless of that arbitrary number, both are considered to be huge successes here.

 

  Saturday       November 21
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 39,542 -- +64.2%
2 Spectre 31,863 12,684 -60.2% +74.6%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 18,567 8,043 -56.7% +48.1%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 9,590 7,038 -26.6% +53.2%
5 Our Times 9,680 4,674 -51.7% +62.7%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 4,876 1,815 -62.8% +48.3%
7 Daughter -- 992 -- +50.1%
8 Bridge of Spies 1,715 971 -43.4% +135.1%
9 Lost in Hong Kong -- 869 -- +33.1%
10 Zinnia Flower -- 697 -- +24.2%
Bad for Hunger Games. It should have broken 40,000 admissions today with the conversion to 2D. Spectre/Return of the Cuckoo had rough holds. She Remembers, He Forgets had a pretty good hold.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 OW projection - $1,600,000

Mockingjay Part 2 will secure the highest grossing OW of the franchise besting Catching Fire's OW of 1.38m but overall it has to be considered a slight disappointment with the screen count, 3D premium charges and lack of competition.
 
  Sunday adm. (so far)     November 22
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 11,463 -- -32.8%
2 Spectre 14,320 3,467 -75.8% -21.4%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 8,129 2,011 -75.3% -37.0%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 2,827 1,229 -56.5% -38.7%
5 Our Times 2,734 791 -71.1% -29.5%
6 The Anthem of the Heart -- 355 -- -22.8%
7 Bridge of Spies 733 253 -65.5% -12.5%
8 Daughter -- 223 -- --
9 Lost in Hong Kong -- 211 -- -7.9%
10 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 822 179 -78.2% -33.0%
Most movies' admissions look out of place. Drops aren't this heavy with Sunday pre-sales in the wintertime. There might be a problem with the admissions site again.
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  Sunday       November 22
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 33,646 -- -14.9%
2 Spectre 30,483 12,244 -59.8% -3.5%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 19,098 7,161 -62.5% -11.0%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 8,333 6,336 -24.0% -10.0%
5 Our Times 8,908 4,822 -45.9% +3.2%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 4,793 1,819 -- +0.2%
7 Daughter -- 1,092 -- +10.1%
8 Bridge of Spies 1,616 892 -44.8% -8.1%
9 Zinnia Flower -- 879 -- +26.1%
10 Lost in Hong Kong -- 806 -- -7.2%

Awful decline for Hunger Games Mockingjay 2. Spectre/Return of the Cuckoo did not take advantage. Nice hold for She Remembers, He Forgets. Our Times had a decent Sunday hold.

  Weekend adm.     Nov 19-22
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 116,522 --
2 Spectre 92,661 36,781 -60.3%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 59,635 24,315 -59.2%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 26,723 20,927 -21.7%
5 Our Times 28,475 13,995 -50.9%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 15,579 5,805 -62.7%
7 Daughter -- 3,180 --
8 Lost in Hong Kong -- 2,566 --
9 Bridge of Spies 4,945 2,562 -48.2%
10 Zinnia Flower -- 2,508 --


Weekend Estimates

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $1,550,000
2. Spectre - $4,650,952
4. She Remembers, He Forgets - $1,098,141
5. Our Times - $5,426,111
Bridge of Spies - $1,162,738

Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 netted the biggest opening weekend in the franchise due to premium 3D prices and a empty marketplace. Legs haven't been The Hunger Games' franchise strong suit since the original and I don't expect a sudden resurgence due to it being the finale. WOM seems to be polarizing like Spectre. Sunday's drop could be major foreshadowing for its legs. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 should finish with 3.3m, below Catching Fire's total.

Spectre is almost $200,000 away from Skyfall's total and it will eclipse that next week.

She Remembers, He Forgets is doing great. It could get to 1.5m before leaving theaters.

Our Times has had a very good run so far though it's nearing the end of its HK journey.

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  Sunday       November 22
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 33,646 -- -14.9%
2 Spectre 30,483 12,244 -59.8% -3.5%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 19,098 7,161 -62.5% -11.0%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 8,333 6,336 -24.0% -10.0%
5 Our Times 8,908 4,822 -45.9% +3.2%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 4,793 1,819 -- +0.2%
7 Daughter -- 1,092 -- +10.1%
8 Bridge of Spies 1,616 892 -44.8% -8.1%
9 Zinnia Flower -- 879 -- +26.1%
10 Lost in Hong Kong -- 806 -- -7.2%

Awful decline for Hunger Games Mockingjay 2. Spectre/Return of the Cuckoo did not take advantage. Nice hold for She Remembers, He Forgets. Our Times had a decent Sunday hold.

  Weekend adm.     Nov 19-22
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 116,522 --
2 Spectre 92,661 36,781 -60.3%
3 Return of the Cuckoo 59,635 24,315 -59.2%
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 26,723 20,927 -21.7%
5 Our Times 28,475 13,995 -50.9%
6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 15,579 5,805 -62.7%
7 Daughter -- 3,180 --
8 Lost in Hong Kong -- 2,566 --
9 Bridge of Spies 4,945 2,562 -48.2%
10 Zinnia Flower -- 2,508 --


Weekend Estimates

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $1,550,000
2. Spectre - $4,650,952
4. She Remembers, He Forgets - $1,098,141
5. Our Times - $5,426,111
Bridge of Spies - $1,162,738

Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 netted the biggest opening weekend in the franchise due to premium 3D prices and a empty marketplace. Legs haven't been The Hunger Games' franchise strong suit since the original and I don't expect a sudden resurgence due to it being the finale. WOM seems to be polarizing like Spectre. Sunday's drop could be major foreshadowing for its legs. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 should finish with 3.3m, below Catching Fire's total.

Spectre is almost $200,000 away from Skyfall's total and it will eclipse that next week.

She Remembers, He Forgets is doing great. It could get to 1.5m before leaving theaters.

Our Times has had a very good run so far though it's nearing the end of its HK journey.

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Early Thursday schedules

Keeper of Darkness will lurk on 2 screens at most Broadway/AMC locations. Newcomer Victor Frankenstein scares up 1 screen. Hunger Games retains 1 screen while Spectre also gets 1 screen. The rest of the remaining screens will be dispersed between Return of the Cuckoo/Our Times/She Remembers, He Forgets.

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  Thursday adm. (so far)   November 26
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 6,999 2,735 -60.9%
2 Keeper of Darkness -- 2,189 --
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 850 --
4 She Remembers, He Forgets 706 707 +0.1%
5 Spectre 1,268 462 -63.6%
6 Return of the Cuckoo 1,206 422 -65.0%
7 By the Sea -- 372 --
7 Our Times 394 271 -31.2%
9 Zinnia Flower 83 215 +159.0%
10 Initiation Love -- 143 --
Weak hold for Mockingjay 2. Bad opening for Keeper of Darkness. Viewers weren't interested in the horror film. Ghastly for Victor Frankenstein. She Remembers, He Forgets was boosted by near full showings at The ONE and THE GRAND. Soft holds for Spectre and Return of the Cuckoo. By the Sea did not carry any weight with moviegoers. Our Times had a nice hold. Great for Zinnia Flower. Initiation Love is a special screening.
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  Thursday     November 26
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 Keeper of Darkness -- 10,915 --
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 19,249 7,463 -61.2%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 4,114 --
4 Spectre 4,587 1,910 -58.4%
5 She Remembers, He Forgets 2,958 1,626 -45.0%
6 Return of the Cuckoo 3,681 1,262 -65.7%
7 Our Times 1,627 1,192 -26.7%
8 By the Sea -- 1,003 --
9 Zinnia Flower 371 835 +125.1%
10 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 947 353 -62.7%

Good walk-ins for Keeper of Darkness. WOM stands at a very good 4.3/5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay 2 crashed and burned. Middling opening day for Victor Frankenstein. Opening day reviews have come in with a solid 4.3/5 score. Blah hold for Spectre. Bad hold for She Remembers. With the 2 pre-bought showtimes left out, its drop would be over 60%. Good hold for Our Times. Excellent for Zinnia Flower.

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    Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)             Nov 16-22
LW TW Title Last Week (HKD) This Week (HKD) Days in release % chg Total (HKD) This Week (USD) Total (USD)
-- 1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- $12,322,321 4 -- $12,322,321 $1,586,255 $1,586,255
1 2 Spectre $13,011,788 $5,627,829 18 -56.7% $36,293,164 $724,471 $4,672,028
2 3 Return of the Cuckoo $4,984,901 $3,882,213 11 -22.1% $8,867,114 $499,758 $1,141,465
4 4 She Remembers, He Forgets $3,538,537 $2,364,788 18 -33.2% $8,561,225 $304,419 $1,102,088
3 5 Our Times $3,650,825 $1,995,374 39 -45.3% $42,116,883 $256,865 $5,421,716
5 6 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse $2,097,319 $1,023,969 25 -51.2% $8,939,639 $131,815 $1,150,801
6 7 Bridge of Spies $642,310 $333,585 32 -48.1% $8,996,288 $42,942 $1,158,094
10 8 The Green Inferno $237,695 $265,965 11 +11.9% $517,862 $34,237 $66,664
-- 9 Daughter -- $253,660 4 -- $253,660 $32,653 $32,653
7 10 Knock Knock $601,134 $232,587 11 -61.3% $833,721 $29,940 $107,325

Mockingjay Part 2 starts off with taking home the biggest OW in the Hunger Games franchise. Legs will be an issue. Spectre can still make it to 5m but it will need a better hold than last week to have a chance. Not that great for Return of the Cuckoo. Good hold for She Remembers, He Forgets. Decent hold for Our Times. 5.5-5.6m will be its final tally. Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse is doing very well. HK is the #1 overseas market for Scouts outgrossing Russia, UK, Mexico, Taiwan and Australia.

Thursday estimates

1. Keeper of Darkness - $115,857
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $2,059,684
3. Victor Frankenstein - $51,492
4. Spectre - $4,827,384
She Remembers, He Forgets - $1,184,318

Decent start for Keeper of Darkness. Not a great total so far for Mockingjay Part 2. From Monday-Thursday, it collected less than $400,000 combined. Meh start for Victor Frankenstein. It might pick up with very good word of mouth. Spectre is inching closer to 5m and should be able to make it by end of next week.
 

  Friday adm. (so far)     November 27
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 10,701 4,754 -55.6% +73.8%
2 Keeper of Darkness -- 2,699 -- +23.3%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 1,685 -- +98.2%
4 Spectre 2,969 1,127 -62.0% +143.9%
5 Return of the Cuckoo 2,253 736 -67.3% +74.4%
6 She Remembers, He Forgets 1,624 546 -66.4% -22.8%
7 By the Sea -- 537 -- +44.4%
8 Our Times 806 485 -39.8% +79.0%
9 Zinnia Flower 160 385 +140.6% +79.1%
10 The Anthem of the Heart 227 114 -49.8% --

Slightly better for The Hunger Games. Typical horror film hold for Keeper of Darkness. It might see a slight increase from yesterday due to strong word of mouth. With no pre-bought showings for She Remembers, He Forgets on Friday, it joins the ranks of Spectre and Return of the Cuckoo for the worst hold of the top 10. By the Sea had an OK increase. Good for Our Times. Zinnia Flower saw a theater increase on Thursday/Friday and will see another round on Saturday. It should be able to double last weekend's gross this weekend.

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  Friday       November 27
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Keeper of Darkness -- 12,939 -- +18.5%
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 24,085 11,520 -52.2% +54.4%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 6,644 -- +61.5%
4 Spectre 7,266 3,145 -56.7% +64.7%
5 She Remembers, He Forgets 4,595 1,741 -62.1% +7.1%
6 Return of the Cuckoo 5,430 1,694 -68.8% +34.2%
7 Our Times 2,872 1,621 -43.6% +36.0%
8 By the Sea -- 1,397 -- +39.3%
9 Zinnia Flower 561 1,146 +104.3% +37.2%
10 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 1,224 400 -67.3% +13.3%

Decent for Keeper of Darkness. WOM remains unchanged from yesterday. Mockingjay Part 2 had a slightly better hold than Thursday due to 3D for most sessions last Friday + no opening day effect. Victor Frankenstein had a solid increase. Spectre had a big decrease. She Remembers, He Forgets fell hard. Awful hold for Return of the Cuckoo. Nice hold for Our Times. Awesome for Zinnia Flower.
_________________________________________________
I've been seeing a lot of ads for Star Wars 4 weeks ahead of its release. That is the same promotion that The Avengers and other big movies got. What I didn't expect is the amount and scale of pre-selling it has gotten 4 weeks in advance! This is huge news when most blockbusters only start pre-selling 2 weeks in advance. Ticket prices are high with blockbuster prices included. Price for an IMAX ticket is fucking insane. At the most expensive theater, it is $200 HK for the morning session at 8:40 AM, $220 HK for late morning session + afternoon sessions and a whopping $240 HK ($30.96 US!!!!!!) at night. Pre-sales are already about 20% full with the most prime time shows.
 

Theater Movie Ticket Prices (HKD) Ticket Prices (USD)
Palace IFC The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $180 $23
  Transformers: Age of Extinction $175 $22.50
  Avengers: Age of Ultron $160 $20.60
  Star Wars: The Force Awakens $150 $19.30
  The Avengers $135 $17.50
  Maleficent (regular) $125 $16
  Life of Pi $120 $15.50

Star Wars: The Force Awakens comes in about average at the most expensive regular theater in HK.

Tomorrow I will detail the biggest Christmas battle ever coming up in Star Wars: The Force Awakens vs. Ip Man 3.

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  Saturday adm. (so far)     November 28
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 17,069 6,934 -59.4% +45.9%
2 Keeper of Darkness -- 3,824 -- +41.7%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 2,463 -- +46.2%
4 Spectre 4,413 1,880 -57.4% +66.8%
5 Return of the Cuckoo 3,194 986 -69.1% +34.0%
6 She Remembers, He Forgets 2,005 937 -53.3% +71.6%
7 Our Times 1,122 772 -31.2% +59.2%
8 SM Town the Stage -- 663 -- --
9 By the Sea -- 556 -- +3.5%
10 Zinnia Flower 234 395 +68.8% +2.6%

Weak hold for Mockingjay 2. Decent increase for Keeper of Darkness. Not bad for Victor Frankenstein. Spectre is not holding well. Awful for Return of the Cuckoo.

The biggest Christmas battle of the ages...Star Wars Episode VII vs. Ip Man 3

Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Opening: December 17, 2015 (midnight)
Image

The 7th episode will descend upon HK when December 17 hits midnight. Some theaters will open with midnight sneaks ahead of its ultra wide release some 11 hours later. There are many ads out and about 4 weeks ahead of its release. Many will want to see what Star Wars has in store as it will be the only release that week.

The Past

Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith - $2,531,147 (below top 10 of 2005)
Star Wars: Attack of the Clones - $1,909,959 (below top 10 of 2002)
Star Wars: The Phantom Menace - $2,921,715 (7th in 1999)

The Star Wars series has never been a phenomenon in Hong Kong. In each of the previous Star Wars films, all have failed to crack the top 5 for the year. This year the top 10 is comprised of 5m+ grossers so far. 9 of them have made 6m or more. It's also the first year where HK had 3 10m grossers.

2015 HK Box Office (through November 26, 2015)
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - $17,119,057
2. Jurassic World - $12,396,205
3. Minions - $10,092,965
4. Inside Out - $8,498,382
5. Furious 7 - $7,676,766
6. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $6,818,856
7. Ant-Man - $6,527,961
8. Stand By Me Doraemon - $6,036,377
9. Little Big Master - $6,015,499
10. Our Times* - $5,499,025

* - still in release

Star Wars has an uphill battle if it's going to join the 10m grosser club. Only 1 Christmas/week before Christmas opener has managed to do it (1 guess as to what it is). The 2nd highest grossing release during those 2 weeks is Kung Fu Hustle with over 8m then Infernal Affairs with 7m.

Star Wars is being compared to Avatar in box office potential and it has earned that right with massive marketing, blockbuster prices, very early and strong pre-selling. Where it falls apart is that those top 3 Christmas releases all have one thing in common: they are all originals. Compounding Star Wars' problem is that it has never had great legs. It's always been a one and done week with Revenge of the Sith and Attack of the Clones both having opening weeks accounting for 56% of their film's final gross.

Opening Week

Image

Is there anything else that needs to be said?

What...ok. Well, nothing else is coming out that week so Star Wars will have all the screens to (mostly) itself. Early pre-selling has been great in IMAX, excellent in business and tourist areas but significantly weaker in rural areas. These areas take a bit more time to fill up so rest assured they won't sell out like hotcakes on its first or second day of pre-selling. The rural areas will definitely make or break Star Wars to the point where their collective power could affect Star Wars' total gross by more than 2m.

Theaters will likely showcase Star Wars on 4-5 screens with the potential for a blackout at a number of locations.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens' opening weekend will break the December opening weekend record but one caveat that the weekend before Christmas has is that it's very muted. We saw it with Ip Man in 2008, Avatar in 2009, Harry Potter 7-1 in 2010 and Night at the Museum 3 last year. All of those films were #1 on their respective opening weekends and managed to increase on their 2nd weekend (Christmas weekend). Star Wars has massive frontloading effect on opening week and will be pressed to make as much money as it can in 7 days with the arrival of Ip Man 3 the following week but this weekend is not known for gigantic opening weekends.

OW prediction: $3,600,000
Opening week prediction: $4,800,000

Legs

Possibly more important than a Christmas film's opening weekend is its legs. Unfortunately, Star Wars has not done well in that regard in the past. Most week before Christmas releases open during that time to not only corner the market but allow it to play relatively unopposed for 3 straight weeks.

At the end of its 7th day, Star Wars: The Force Awakens will pass 4m and be in the driver's seat for the winter 2015 crown. Unfortunately, the distributor for Ip Man 3 had other ideas when it moved its own tentpole from an early 2016 release to Christmas Eve. Along with 2 other semi-wide animation releases on December 24, it will lose most of its opening week screens to the new releases culminating in a decrease on opening weekend.

This weekend is reminiscent of the 2010 Christmas battle between Harry Potter 7-1 vs. Gulliver's Travels. Gulliver's Travels won Christmas weekend with 1.8m and sent Harry Potter reeling down 32% on its 2nd weekend but that's where the comparisons end. Ip Man 3 is a lot stronger than Gulliver's Travels and will dominate screens on Christmas. With Star Wars known for being frontloaded and with theaters spreading the holiday cheer to new films, The Force Awakens should drop an alarming 53% on its 2nd weekend to 1.7m.

3rd weekend should see a continuation of its troubling 2nd weekend. In the past, Star Wars films have seen bigger declines on its 3rd weekend after a weak hold on its 2nd. With the end of holidays nearing, Star Wars should dry up quickly. A 66% freefall would only leave it with $578,000.

4th weekend is the end of the holidays. Most films tumble. A 79% dump would be $122,500. At this point, it will have made 8.1m.

The rest of its run should make $200,000-$300,000.

OW: $3,600,000
Total: $8,400,000 (2.33 multiplier)

Ip Man 3
Opening: December 24, 2015
Image

The finale to the Ip Man trilogy will kick its way into theaters Christmas Eve. All I know is that Donnie Yen is back after he said he probably wouldn't return for a 3rd one, Mike Tyson will be his opponent, it's going to kick a ton of ass and it will make a boatload of money.

The Past

Ip Man 2 - $5,558,704
Ip Man - $3,300,847

In December 2008, Ip Man karate chopped its way to an astounding 3.3m after a surprise OW win over Twilight and Madagascar. It produced a powerful 5.69 multiplier and kicked off of the franchise that will have lasted 7 years. By 2010, Ip Man 2 went toe-to-toe in the epic 'Battle of the Man' weekend that saw both Ip Man 2 and Iron Man 2 throw punches at each other the same weekend at the box office. Ip Man 2 won on opening weekend with its 1.7m 4-day vs. Iron Man 2's 1.5m 3-day and proceeded to crush Iron Man 2's spirit thereafter by holding onto #1 for 3 more weeks after that and dropping less than 50% on its 2nd, 3rd and 4th weekends.

Ip Man 3 will find itself against huge competition in Star Wars but it in itself is a big film. The Ip Man series has always had to deal with massive competition. As a self-starter in 2008, it won against Madagascar and Twilight and then in 2010, it took down a massive sequel on opening weekend. Ip Man 3's opening weekend won't nearly be as bad as it will have to deal with the 2nd weekend of a tentpole film. Star Wars is frontloaded so it will make most of its money in 7 days reducing the risk of dampening Ip Man 3's opening weekend or legs.

Opening Week

Christmas weekend is where more money is spent at the box office but with Ip Man 3 coming out, it will redirect most of the other opening grosses toward it. Unlike the MI4 vs. SH2 battle in 2011, this will see a long due sequel face off against a beloved sequel but on 2 consecutive weekends. This is unprecedented since distributors/studios will stay away from a big tentpole like Star Wars.

Ip Man 3 has a lot of things going for it. Goodwill from the previous 2 films. Donnie Yen returning. All of the major players returning plus a fresh face in Mike Tyson. Sequel. Finale factor. Christmas opening release date. The only thing stopping it will be itself and Star Wars.

Star Wars will be making most of its money in its first 7 days which means Ip Man 3 will corral the big screens when it comes out on Christmas Eve. When Ip Man 2 was released a day ahead of Iron Man 2, it got 4-5 screens. I see Ip Man 3 getting 2, maybe 3 screens if it's lucky. Star Wars will likely get 2 screens and then there still needs to be one screen allocated between Snoopy: Peanuts Movie and The Little Prince.

The goodwill from the previous 2 films though will make sure that pre-sales will be brisk and theaters might give Ip Man 3 an extra screen beginning on Boxing Day if Star Wars starts to trail off.

OW prediction: $2,500,000

Legs

Though no 1m+ Christmas opener has ever beaten the previous weekend's opener in HK, in recent years the one that opens during Christmas has the much better legs.

2nd weekend will have the holidays ending but the last weekend of 2009 (December 31 weekend), many films saw strong holds. The Ip Man series is no stranger to amazing holds and I could see this following its predecessors' holds. 2nd weekend is currently predicted at 1.9m (-24%).

3rd weekend will see the holidays disappear and Ip Man 3 will come down to earth a bit. A 35% drop would give it $1.235m for this weekend. By this point, it will have made over 7.6m.

4th weekend should see a slightly bigger drop with about 40% fall or a $740,000 weekend.

5th weekends have not been kind to the Ip Man series. I see this dropping more than 60%. A 65% crash would leave it with $260,000.

Rest of its run should combine for about $300,000-$400,000.

Opening weekend: $2,500,000
Total: $9,435,000 (3.77 multiplier)

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So for you it is likely that, in spite of all the promotion and buzz, the latest Star Wars does not make it into the 2015's TOP 5 !

If IP3 actually managed to keep it off that spot, I will be more than impressed... but as you mentioned, Star Wars seems like it has never been a huge tentpole in HK.

 

Interesting stuff indeed

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3 hours ago, moudoudou said:

So for you it is likely that, in spite of all the promotion and buzz, the latest Star Wars does not make it into the 2015's TOP 5 !

If IP3 actually managed to keep it off that spot, I will be more than impressed... but as you mentioned, Star Wars seems like it has never been a huge tentpole in HK.

 

Interesting stuff indeed

Yeah, Star Wars is not as beloved as Harry Potter or Transformers in Hong Kong. I know there was a big marketing push with the Star Wars toy launch a couple of months back but that won't affect ticket sales much. The problem that I see for Star Wars is that it's releasing on a weekend known for muted grosses. Star Wars is practically made for one week so the dynamic of a powerhouse opening weekend vs. a weekend known for smaller grosses is interesting. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and Disney did not foresee Pegasus (the distributor for Ip Man 3) moving their film to Christmas so they probably were expecting to see this gross 10m in HK. It still can but with years of data to back me up, it will need to pull off the biggest surprise ever with its opening weekend. I debated for so long whether to predict a 4m OW but I just don't think that it can right now. Let's not forget that no other Hollywood film released in this 2 week period besides Avatar made over 6m total. The closest was Harry Potter 4 with 5.9m in 2005 (it grossed more than double what Revenge of the Sith made).

 

  Saturday       November 28
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Keeper of Darkness -- 18,861 -- +45.8%
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 39,542 18,340 -53.6% +59.2%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 10,333 -- +55.5%
4 Spectre 12,684 5,589 -55.9% +77.7%
5 She Remembers, He Forgets 7,038 3,315 -52.9% +90.4%
6 Our Times 4,674 2,674 -42.8% +65.0%
7 Return of the Cuckoo 8,043 2,340 -70.9% +38.1%
8 Zinnia Flower 697 1,752 +151.4% +52.9%
9 By the Sea -- 1,705 -- +22.0%
10 SM Town the Stage -- 738 -- --

Not bad for Keeper of Darkness. Not good for Mockingjay 2.

 

  Sunday adm. (so far)     November 29
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 11,463 6,226 -45.7% -10.2%
2 Keeper of Darkness -- 4,030 -- +5.4%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 2,339 -- -5.0%
4 Spectre 3,467 1,786 -48.5% -5.0%
5 Return of the Cuckoo 2,011 839 -58.3% -14.9%
6 Our Times 791 752 -4.9% -2.6%
7 She Remembers, He Forgets 1,229 751 -38.9% -19.9%
8 By the Sea -- 538 -- -3.2%
9 SM Town the Stage -- 481 -- -27.5%
10 Zinnia Flower -- 397 -- +0.5%

All adm. from last week are deflated which means the drops are very inflated. In any case, that's a bad decline day-to-day for Hunger Games Mockingjay 2. Great for Keeper of Darkness.

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  Sunday       November 29
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Keeper of Darkness -- 17,317 -- -8.2%
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 33,646 15,183 -54.9% -17.2%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 8,747 -- -15.3%
4 Spectre 12,244 4,760 -61.1% -14.8%
5 Our Times 4,822 2,655 -44.9% -0.7%
6 She Remembers, He Forgets 6,336 2,475 -60.9% -25.3%
7 Return of the Cuckoo 7,161 2,075 -71.0% -11.3%
8 Zinnia Flower 879 1,352 +53.8% -22.8%
8 By the Sea -- 1,352 -- -20.7%
10 SM Town the Stage -- 532 -- -27.9%
Pretty good for Keeper of Darkness. Steep decline for Mockingjay 2.
 
  Weekend adm.     Nov 26-29
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 Keeper of Darkness -- 60,032 --
2 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 116,522 52,506 -54.9%
3 Victor Frankenstein -- 29,838 --
4 Spectre 36,781 15,404 -58.1%
5 She Remembers, He Forgets 20,927 9,157 -56.2%
6 Our Times 13,995 8,142 -41.8%
7 Return of the Cuckoo 24,315 7,371 -69.7%
8 By the Sea -- 5,457 --
9 Zinnia Flower 2,508 5,085 +102.8%
10 Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse 5,805 1,853 -68.1%


Weekend Estimates

1. Keeper of Darkness - $635,000
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $620,000 (-60.9%)/$2,590,000
3. Victor Frankenstein - $350,000

These are disappointing results for Mockingjay 2 regardless if it wins this weekend or not. Keeper of Darkness overperformed. Horror movies don't do well in HK so to see it potentially pull off a #1 upset on Mockingjay 2's 2nd weekend is surprising. Bleh for Victor Frankenstein.

 

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Weekend Estimates

1. Keeper of Darkness - $708,016
2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - $605,000 (-61.9%)/$2,574,605
3. Victor Frankenstein - $296,079
4. Spectre - $5,020,479 by Tuesday
Return of the Cuckoo - $1,287,302
By the Sea - $45,055
Our Times - $5,599,765 by Tuesday

Upcoming release schedule
 

Release Date Movie Title
December 3 Point Break
The Vanished Murderer
Port of Call
In the Heart of the Sea
The Crow's Egg
Ryuzo and the Seven Henchmen
December 10 Legend
Freeheld
Burnt
Go Lala Go 2
Before We Go
Sinister 2
Initiation Love
December 17 Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Love the Coopers
December 24 Ip Man 3
The Little Prince
Yo Kai-Watch Movie
Snoopy: The Peanuts Movie
December 31 Joy
Secret in Their Eyes
The Boy and the Beast
Anniversary

December will be monopolized by Star Wars 7/Ip Man 3. I'm not going to talk about the first two weeks or the last week of December since they don't matter. On the December 24 weekend, 3 animation releases will battle it out on the low end of the spectrum. The Peanuts Movie has the inside track on actually getting a screen since it's the Hollywood animated release of the winter and at least 4 screens will end up with either Ip Man 3 or Star Wars on the December 24 weekend. The Little Prince might be able to sniff out half day showings at most theaters along with Yo Kai Watch.

2016 release dates

Release Date Movie Title
January 8 The Revenant
January 14 Steve Jobs
The 5th Wave
Salut d'Amour
January 21 Our Brand is Crisis
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Love in Late Autumn
February 4 The Good Dinosaur
Deadpool
February 11 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
February 25 Zoolander 2
The Danish Girl
March 17 Kung Fu Panda 3
March 24 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
June 9 Warcraft: The Beginning


The Good Dinosaur v. Deadpool battle on Chinese New Year week. I don't see The Good Dinosaur doing all that well. Meanwhile, Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 is released a week later. That makes me wonder if theaters will be showing advanced screenings of Alvin in advance on the CNY holidays.

Interesting that Kung Fu Panda 3 is released the week before the Easter holidays. Normally animation releases come out the week of. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice should do well. Possibly 3m OW even with KFP3 out.

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Star Wars: The Force Awakens Opening Day Watch
 
Festival Walk        
  Star Wars: The Force Awakens      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Dec. 17 11:15 AM 110 354 31.07%
  1:50 PM 45 354 12.71%
  4:25 PM 92 354 25.99%
  7:00 PM 197 354 55.65%
  9:35 PM 159 354 44.92%
Total   603 1770 34.07%
Very strong pre-sales almost 2 weeks out. This theater is one of the better performing locations for Star Wars at the moment.

 

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Let's compare the ticket prices of Transformers 4 and Avengers 2 with Star Wars 7.

Image vs. Image vs. Image

Cyberport: -$10
Palace IFC: -$25 Transformers, -$10 Avengers
Hollywood: -$10
The ONE: -$5 Transformers, = Avengers
Cinematheque: -$10
Mongkok: -$5 Transformers, = Avengers
Palace APM: -$5 Transformers, -$10 Avengers
Kwai Fong: -$10
Tsuen Wan: -$10
Kingswood Ginza: +$5 Transformers, -$10 Avengers

In essence, both Transformers 4 and Avengers 2 received long running time surcharge while it looks like Star Wars did not. It seems like all films starting from Star Wars opening day will see another $5 price hike. Most theaters will be priced $10 less than The Avengers while The ONE/Mongkok are outliers by equaling its Star Wars ticket price with The Avengers.

A couple of days ago, we looked at one of Star Wars 7's best performing theaters. Today, we'll look at one of its weaker locations.
 

Kwai Fong        
  Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Dec. 17 11:35 AM 19 189 10.05%
  2:10 PM 0 189 0.00%
  4:40 PM 4 189 2.12%
  7:10 PM 27 189 14.29%
  9:40 PM 9 189 4.76%
Total   59 945 6.24%
Dec. 18 11:35 AM 7 189 3.70%
  2:10 PM 1 189 0.53%
  4:40 PM 5 189 2.65%
  7:10 PM 43 189 22.75%
  9:40 PM 8 189 4.23%
Total   64 945 6.77%
2-day total   123 1890 6.51%

While Star Wars monster theaters are approaching 1,000 admissions already, there are a number of theaters that are lagging well behind. Kwai Fong is doing 10 times less business than Festival Walk so far. The 7 PM Thursday/Friday showtimes are selling slowly. The Friday 9:30 pm showing is virtually empty with less than 5% filled.

I've never seen such division for a blockbuster movie. Star Wars 7 has had more than 1 week of pre-selling with about 1 and a half weeks to go but I can name more than 10 theaters that are performing similar to Kwai Fong. On the other hand, the business district, tourist areas and TKO theaters are all performing very well. It's strange. One movie that I remember performing like this was Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps. That did really well in the business district but was a loser in rural areas.

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  Sunday       December 6
Rank Movie LW TW WKD % chg QD % chg
1 Point Break -- 13,454 -- --
2 Keeper of Darkness 17,317 13,082 -24.5% --
3 In the Heart of the Sea -- 12,430 -- --
4 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 15,183 7,436 -51.0% --
5 Port of Call -- 6,574 -- --
6 Victor Frankenstein 8,747 2,844 -67.5% --
7 Spectre 4,760 2,471 -48.1% --
8 The Crow's Egg -- 1,879 -- --
8 The Vanished Murderer -- 1,830 -- --
10 She Remembers, He Forgets 2,475 1,558 -37.1% --
Good for Point Break and In the Heart of the Sea. Great hold for Keeper of Darkness. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay 2 held alright. Ok opening Sunday for Port of Call. Outstanding for The Crow's Egg.

Switching gears, The Little Prince and The Peanuts Movie will have previews Dec. 17 weekend. Pre-sales for The Little Prince are doing OK while The Peanuts Movie is sold out.
 
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  Thursday adm. (so far)   December 10
Rank Movie LW TW % chg
1 In the Heart of the Sea -- 2,071 --
2 Point Break -- 881 --
3 Keeper of Darkness -- 785 --
4 Burnt -- 722 --
5 Port of Call -- 508 --
6 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 -- 420 --
7 Go Lala Go 2 -- 403 --
7 Before We Go -- 260 --
9 Freeheld -- 248 --
10 Yowamushi Pedal -- 173 --

New openers were so bad that the top 3 remain unchanged from last week. Everybody's waiting for Star Wars.

Part 3 of Star Wars: The Force Awakens pre-sales
 

Festival Walk        
  Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3D      
Day Time Seats sold Seats available % filled
Dec. 17 11:15 AM 140 354 39.55%
  12:00 PM 4 156 2.56%
  1:50 PM 59 354 16.67%
  2:35 PM 8 156 5.13%
  4:25 PM 110 354 31.07%
  5:10 PM 6 156 3.85%
  7:00 PM 209 354 59.04%
  7:45 PM 20 156 12.82%
  9:35 PM 202 354 57.06%
  10:20 PM 6 156 3.85%
Total   764 2550 29.96%

Star Wars pre-sales have slowed down considerably at this theater with it adding about 150 admissions since last check 5 days ago. Overall, this theater is one of Star Wars strongholds.

If Star Wars is going to hit 4m OW, it needs to pick up the pace fast.

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