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On states of things

JamesCameronScholar

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I came back from a lengthy ban recently to find that the forum is mostly empty, at least in comparison to where it was prior to the ban. It's strange not to see a lot of the old names and faces making posts.

 

I suppose much of this silence can be attributed to COVID, but then I ask myself, surely that would mean people have more time to spend online? If people are inside more, why has there not been an increase in posting? Now of course people will say that no movies have come out, but I don't think much of the talk on here was about the movies of the now in the first place. Much of it was around movies that were coming down the pipe. So what else might be responsible for this reduction in activity? I can't be certain at the moment, but my gut tells me that the increased 'moderation' and locking of some of our most active threads (RIP Fan Boy Thread) have lead people to leave for pastures new, where they can discuss the topics they want in a liberal environment. 

 

Or it could be that I'm totally wrong, and there's actually more activity now than ever before! 

 

What do you think? Let me know! 

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I imagine a lot of the friendly faces you are missing did indeed leave after we cracked down on trolling. We are perfectly fine with a community that is smaller but better to be in than a community that is larger but toxic.

 

But I know you like your data so I'm going to share some with you. We can actually track community activity. The site lists this as "The total number of members who submitted new content, followed something, or reacted to something on the community in the specified time period."

 

Our data for February 2020: 578 (down from 593 in 2019...not a significant amount). The fanboy thread was locked down at the start of February and we did not seem to lose any real activity during February.

Our data for March 2020 when the lockdowns started: 473

And we've been around 300 until Tenet came out when it went back up slightly to 355 (and 367 in September) then it went back down to around 300. Oddly enough our activity lulls are usually in September!

What do we see here? We lost about 200 members around the lockdown. We gained a little bit when there was box office then it went back down.

 

So two things:

1) One people actually did come here to discuss box office numbers especially during blockbuster seasons.

2) Yes there are movies in the pipeline but news is slow on that front due to COVID and there isn't as much to discuss. 

 

300 member activity is actually pretty solid for us. 

 

Of course, since you seem to think people are fleeing our site to other sites, you are free to go ahead and stop posting here and start posting at these sites with less moderation. Have a good day JCS.

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17 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

300 member activity is actually pretty solid for us. 

 

597 to 'around 300'. I guess if you see a nearly 50% drop as 'solid', personally I'd say those numbers prove my initial speculations correct, so thank you, and I do appreciate you sharing those numbers. 

 

I'll stick around to see how the Avatar 2 thread ticks along I suppose, unless it gets nuked (or if the site continues its decline maybe it'll just shutter - I hope not). 

 

And again, I don't 'seem to think' people are 'fleeing' the site, seems plain as day to me, and you (based on your own numbers), that they are. It's a real shame. 

Edited by JamesCameronScholar
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IronJimbo

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18 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

I imagine a lot of the friendly faces you are missing did indeed leave after we cracked down on trolling. We are perfectly fine with a community that is smaller but better to be in than a community that is larger but toxic.

 

But I know you like your data so I'm going to share some with you. We can actually track community activity. The site lists this as "The total number of members who submitted new content, followed something, or reacted to something on the community in the specified time period."

 

Our data for February 2020: 578 (down from 593 in 2019...not a significant amount). The fanboy thread was locked down at the start of February and we did not seem to lose any real activity during February.

Our data for March 2020 when the lockdowns started: 473

And we've been around 300 until Tenet came out when it went back up slightly to 355 (and 367 in September) then it went back down to around 300. Oddly enough our activity lulls are usually in September!

What do we see here? We lost about 200 members around the lockdown. We gained a little bit when there was box office then it went back down.

 

So two things:

1) One people actually did come here to discuss box office numbers especially during blockbuster seasons.

2) Yes there are movies in the pipeline but news is slow on that front due to COVID and there isn't as much to discuss. 

 

300 member activity is actually pretty solid for us. 

 

Of course, since you seem to think people are fleeing our site to other sites, you are free to go ahead and stop posting here and start posting at these sites with less moderation. Have a good day JCS.

These are interesting numbers!

 

What about activity of those members? Correct me if I'm wrong @JamesCameronScholar but it seems like you were pointing out the total activity/posts happening, rather than the unique people who made a single or more 'impression' (potentially not even posting!). I know I'll appear the same this month as I did last year using these metrics, but the reality is I was far more active last year.

 

Just using the eye-test the number of posts seems way down and the front page seems slow.

 

I reckon it will all pick up though! : ) When big tent pole blockbusters are back and A2 saves cinema (literally).

Edited by IronJimbo
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5 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

597 to 'around 300'. I guess if you see a nearly 50% drop as 'solid', personally I'd say those numbers prove my initial speculations correct, so thank you, and I do appreciate you sharing those numbers. 

 

I'll stick around to see how the Avatar 2 thread ticks along I suppose, unless it gets nuked (or if the site continues its decline maybe it'll just shutter - I hope not). 

 

And again, I don't 'seem to think' people are 'fleeing' the site, seems plain as day to me, and you (based on your own numbers), that they are. It's a real shame. 

 

Yes solid considering the circumstances. This is a box office/movie forum. There is less theatrical movie news and no box office. If you really think we wouldn't have lost a lot of members and activity over that, then I think you have confused why a large portion of the community did come to this site for: to discuss how their movies are doing and how future movies will do. I can tell you right now that over the years, activity on this site has gone up when the box office is doing really well and tapered when the box office is slow. There is a direct correlation with how movies are doing and the activity on this site. I've attached a chart of total posts over time so you can see what I mean: we peak when the box office peaks, we are very weak when the box office is weak. So 50% loss of activity with no box office? Yeah, solid. 

 

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

What about activity of those members? Correct me if I'm wrong @JamesCameronScholar but it seems like you were pointing out the total activity/posts happening, rather than the unique people who made a single or more 'impression' (potentially not even posting!). I know I'll appear the same this month as I did last year using these metrics, but the reality is I was far more active last year.

 

I sincerely hope Avatar 2, with other big tentpoles, can help bring people back to theaters and bring the box office back. 

 

January 2020 posts: 14,778

February 2020 posts: 15,554 (posts went up despite the fanboy thread being closed at the START of February)

March 2020 posts: 16,278 

May 2020 posts: 10,773-here you see a drop-off. I'm guessing COVID/theaters closing drove posting in March since it was so new. But as movie news slowed down and with no box office...

June 2020 posts: 8,155

July 2020: 7,149

August 2020: 7,864

September 2020: 7,516

October 2020: 7,452

 

So with half the members we are making...about half the posts. Which is what you'd expect. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-25 at 8.23.49 PM.png

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5 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

So with half the members we are making...about half the posts. Which is what you'd expect. 

 

Super interesting, I would have thought BOT would have been another one of the places with the 1% rule. I guess it's more proportional. Thanks again for these further numbers, and I do hope you're right on your initial point - hopefully the end of COVID and some big movies will get people back and posting. 

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No idea why I see this as its by a blocked member...

 

I can give additional data out of a German BO forum, for this blog’s reason I give in especial the view counts for their subforum for the US:

it is an area where a lot of views without so many posts in relation in comparison to here, and for some reasons people do not find it accidentally per a search engine, means the views are to a very high % done by members only or people like us, who also are active here.

Till February 7 the views were pretty normal for the time of year, than increased a bit to a lot (+ 50%) see discussions about possible impact, till up to March 22, the last of the high view counts. From one week to the next in fell to ~ 30% of the normal views, means it fell roughly 2 thirds of the pre discussion increase for a couple of weeks and is still falling, to in a view of those not even 5% of what was (and even less of what it should be for the time of year).

Why is it falling? Not because people wandered of or got banned, its the missing data. the missing news. And people have in part their own problems caused by the virus, in especial if you work in the cinema business (as a lot of the people there do, incl cinema owners)

 

About people being more in the Internet: yes and no.

 

It depends a lot for what the forum or YT-channel or... is about.

Like news about the virus, how to cook, how to store, how to do e.g. canning, sewing (including masks), ... those increased a lot.

Home-schooling.... too

Book/audiobook recommendations, ... those I see an increase too.

DIY tips, how to build e.g. a shelf or clean out rainwater pipes,... tools, ... increased too.

Positive mood/stories at YT channels, eg animal rescue, wildlife sightings,... increased. 

 

People with children have often way less time or energy to go to a forum to bick or discuss no new news about their interest as some seem to use a forum it seems.

The same counts for people working in health care and / or education, people working in the delivering business too, many of those work tons of overtime (at least here it is so).

 

Also where to get articles that increased price-wise a lot during the lockdowns, for a reasonable price (a sheet of building plates got op fro. $17 to $54  as an example), comparisons of prices and quality too (DIY and foodstuff...)

 

If there are no new news there will come a time where it gets boring to rehash, so why to even think about revisiting an old thread?

 

If there is no real reason for a visit at a very specific forum, why being ‘surprised’ about the lower numbers?

Why start a blog with such a ‘tone’? Sadly I am not surprised, not the first time I am very much wondering why people feel so negatively from the start.

 

I probably wont get an info about a possible response as by a blocked member, just in case.

 

(btw, I think the November numbers might be higher again, see election = an actual reason to meet and discuss... and it involves even the nice litte numbers, percentages,... some of us love so much)

 

 

 

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Not even going to begin to try and parse the above nonsense, esp. when I am supposedly blocked by that user. 

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