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Showing content with the highest reputation since 05/16/2019 in all areas

  1. 55 points
  2. 50 points
  3. 46 points
    Actuals Aladdin $7.45mn JW 3 $2.2m EG $1.3mn This is last daily update till June 10th.
  4. 44 points
  5. 41 points
  6. 39 points
    I’m probably late but I think we should really only compare Endgame’s legs to the legs of all of the previous films that opened with $357m.
  7. 37 points
  8. 37 points
  9. 35 points
  10. 34 points
    Since, I am here, I might as well share the number. Gosh I need to learn self control. @DeeCee @baumer please block me for some days. G 19.2 A 11.6 R 9.02 M 7.15 JW 2.91 EG 2
  11. 32 points
  12. 31 points
    Been meaning to say this for a while now. One thing that I'm very grateful for Endgame is that it has REALLY kickstarted this thread and turned it into one of the busiest in the forum. Looking back last year, this thread would get a few posts a day, and sometimes none at all during the slower periods. This includes the spring/summer months, BTW. But ever since EG (and truthfully a little before it), we've been getting tons of theater reports, looks at Fandango/MovieTickets data and generally just good conversation about pre-sales. I think it's been helping us sharpen our expectations at least (if not results) and overall just has risen the quality of discussion 'round these parts. There is the occasional bout of OT posting (that I in no way help happen on occasion... *cough* ), but in general this thread has become a great resource for tracking and discussion about movies and I'd like to thank each and every poster who has been taking the time out to post about their theaters, or just try to take a stab at pre-sale discussion. So thank you one and all. Your contributions have been very welcome for this poster:
  13. 30 points
    Want to take a moment to drop some thoughts to @Mulder and @Brainbug (and a bit to @BoxOfficeZ as well) as well as anyone else who has been pushing hard for the film whose name escapes me at the moment. I know more than most here how it feels to have the Box Office Gods stab you through the heart on a film* you've been stanning for months. It sucks. It's awful and it generally just plain hurts. Just want to send some thoughts out publicly to them and let them know that I'm thinking about them. And, hey, never know. Might still get some legs when all is said and done. Here's hoping at least. * I was tagged during Solo's OW and while I was in no mood to comment at the time, I did appreciate the sentiment. I felt I should pass this forward to other folks in a similar position.
  14. 30 points
    JW 4.15 EG 2 PDP 1.67
  15. 29 points
    https://deadline.com/2019/05/toy-story-4-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-fandango-atom-presale-records-1202624173/ Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 hit tracking this morning and box office analysts are already buzzing that the fourthquel has a great shot at setting a new opening record for an animation film, besting Incredibles 2‘s 3-day last year of $182.6M. A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast. In the tracking number tea leaves, analysts see Toy Story 4 doing about 10% better than Incredibles 2. Toy Story 4 opens on June 21. Fandango and Atom Tickets are already reporting that the first day (Tuesday) of movie ticket presales for Toy Story 4 has already set a record for an animated movie and outsold Incredibles 2. On Fandango, Toy Story 4 outstripped the first 24 hour advance ticket sales of Pixar’s Finding Dory, as well as the live-action titles Beauty and the Beast, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. On Atom Tickets, Toy Story 4 sold nearly 50% more tickets than their top 3 animated movie pre-sellers combined (for the same time period), which includes Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet and Hotel Transylvania 3.
  16. 29 points
    Tuesday Actuals Aladdin: $11.9mn JW 3: $3.2mn Endgame: $1.85mn PDP: $1.76mn BB: $1.09mn
  17. 29 points
  18. 29 points
    Friday Estimates Aladdin 32 John Wick 6.7 Endgame 4.15 PDP 3.3 Brightburn 2.9 Booksmart 1.65 (True Friday, I don't recall previews)
  19. 29 points
  20. 29 points
  21. 27 points
  22. 26 points
    Lol why does Disney get brought up every time another studio’s movie underperforms? It’s not like Disney is immune to underperforming movies. We’ve had multiple in the past 2 years. Disney gets blame when Disney movies underperform. Disney gets blame when non-Disney movies underperform.
  23. 26 points
    Monday Actuals Aladdin $25.5mn (31.15 29.8 30.4 25.5 : 116.85) JW 3 $6.35mn Endgame $5mn
  24. 26 points
  25. 26 points
  26. 26 points
    We are all so very spoiled by having early weekday estimates from you. Thank you so much for giving us your time and providing us numbers, on any days you do so. I don't take it for granted. Peace, Mike
  27. 25 points
  28. 25 points
    I am doing rough calculations 3.25 1.85 1.5
  29. 24 points
    Most of yall would have never survived in the BOM days / Pre Nikki - Deadline. No updates until the studios sent the numbers out, no regularly posting insiders and so on. Some of you more new members should learn how to express thankfullness that Charlie takes as much time as he does instead of just asking "where the hell is he." We didnt even have Rth until Avengers 1 opened as far as a source goes. As for everything else, not sure why its not been said by the refs yet - if people are being mean, bad, rude, stupid and so on - Do Not Engage. Put them on ignore, report them to the board and or use the not cool symbol. Its summer time and attitudes are going to het high with newbs and old stars but lets not make it worse ala the last few pages of this thread. @baumer if this is to much I can edit it.
  30. 24 points
  31. 24 points
  32. 24 points
    Official news, AEG will end its run on May 23rd, Disney asked for an extension, but not permitted by Film Bureau.
  33. 23 points
  34. 23 points
  35. 23 points
    I just want to give a huge thank you to this thread and everyone in it over the past few months. BOT stands for Box Office Theory of course, and the reason I joined these Forums 5 years ago is because they were unlike any other movie-related forum on the Internet. This wasn't some fanboy site talking about CBMs all the time, but a forum with many members who genuinely cared about box office. Over the years, many newbies have come to these forums and have contributed little to box-office related discussion. Not that they do not contribute to these boards in other ways; most users on here are great and are very enthusiastic. But in regular movie threads, there is a lot less box office talk than there used to be. But this thread represents the reason I came to BOT in the first place. This thread has so many members in here dedicated to box office numbers, and discussion in here rarely gets sidetracked. Not only that, but some members in here have even gotten so good at tracking to be better than many industry trackers. It really is incredible. So, thank you!
  36. 23 points
    Friday Actuals Aladdin 31.4 John Wick 6.5 Endgame 4.1 PDP 3.25 Brightburn 2.95 Booksmart 2.4
  37. 23 points
  38. 22 points
  39. 22 points
  40. 21 points
    As per @Charlie Jatinder request I have suspended him from posting anything on this site until his exams are done or until he request to be reinstated.
  41. 21 points
    Oh well. Like i said, i dont really care (though i would apprectiate it if you woud stop tagging me). Ill see the film for the fith and sixth time today and plan to end it with 25+ times. Though i think i will take a long break from this site. The film seriously underperforming means certain people will laugh at it and i dont really need that. Truth to be told, i do care a little. The past few days have kind of killed my excitement for box office numbers.
  42. 21 points
    Sorry I did calculations mistake. JW 3 $3.2-3.3mn. EG $1.9-2
  43. 21 points
  44. 21 points
  45. 21 points
  46. 21 points
    China Final Gross. Avengers: Endgame Day Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ % +/- YD / LW* Gross-to-date Day # Tue Apr. 23, 2019 ¥190,117 $28,207,000 $28,207,000 0 Wed Apr. 24, 2019 ¥534,991 $79,376,000 $107,583,000 1 Thu Apr. 25, 2019 ¥315,916 $46,941,000 -40.86% $154,524,000 2 Fri Apr. 26, 2019 ¥423,947 $62,994,000 34.20% $217,518,000 3 Sat Apr. 27, 2019 ¥551,683 $81,974,000 30.13% $299,492,000 4 Sun Apr. 28, 2019 ¥208,405 $30,967,000 -62.22% $330,459,000 5 Mon Apr. 29, 2019 ¥124,510 $18,501,000 -40.26% $348,960,000 6 Tue Apr. 30, 2019 ¥255,339 $37,940,000 105.07% $386,900,000 7 Wed May. 1, 2019 ¥501,239 $74,478,000 96.30% -6.17% $461,378,000 8 Thu May. 2, 2019 ¥337,070 $50,085,000 -32.75% 6.70% $511,463,000 9 Fri May. 3, 2019 ¥241,666 $35,909,000 -28.30% -43.00% $547,372,000 10 Sat May. 4, 2019 ¥141,384 $21,008,000 -41.50% -74.37% $568,380,000 11 Sun May. 5, 2019 ¥51,349 $7,630,000 -63.68% -75.36% $576,010,000 12 Mon May. 6, 2019 ¥33,784 $4,998,000 -34.50% -72.99% $581,008,000 13 Tue May. 7, 2019 ¥28,208 $4,167,000 -16.63% -89.02% $585,175,000 14 Wed May. 8, 2019 ¥24,257 $3,578,000 -14.13% -95.20% $588,753,000 15 Thu May. 9, 2019 ¥21,240 $3,114,000 -12.97% -93.78% $591,867,000 16 Fri May. 10, 2019 ¥28,625 $4,191,000 34.59% -88.33% $596,058,000 17 Sat May. 11, 2019 ¥56,050 $8,206,000 95.80% -60.94% $604,264,000 18 Sun May. 12, 2019 ¥40,250 $5,893,000 -28.19% -22.77% $610,157,000 19 Mon May. 13, 2019 ¥12,450 $1,810,000 -69.29% -63.79% $611,967,000 20 Tue May. 14, 2019 ¥11,000 $1,599,000 -11.66% -61.63% $613,566,000 21 Wed May. 15, 2019 ¥10,000 $1,453,000 -9.13% -59.39% $615,019,000 22 Thu May. 16, 2019 ¥9,106 $1,316,000 -9.43% -57.74% $616,335,000 23 Fri May. 17, 2019 ¥11,500 $1,662,000 26.29% -60.34% $617,997,000 24 Sat May. 18, 2019 ¥24,100 $3,483,000 109.57% -57.56% $621,480,000 25 Sun May. 19, 2019 ¥19,540 $2,824,000 -18.92% -52.08% $624,304,000 26 Mon May. 20, 2019 ¥12,506 $1,807,000 -36.01% -0.17% $626,111,000 27 Tue May. 21, 2019 ¥6,503 $942,000 -47.87% -41.09% $627,053,000 28 Wed May. 22, 2019 ¥5,527 $801,000 -14.97% -44.87% $627,854,000 29 Thu May. 23, 2019 ¥6,080 $881,000 9.99% -33.05% $628,735,000 30 Total ¥4,238,342 $628,735,000
  47. 21 points
  48. 21 points
  49. 21 points
    @filmlover has been threadbanned for linking to Dogs Journey spoilers without a spoiler warning or spoiler tags. As a reminder, our spoilers policy is not just for big movies, they apply to all movies.
  50. 20 points
    So everybody has been wondering what exactly is going on with Aladdin, especially in regards to the anecdotal theater evidence and the fandango sales wildly splitting. I took a look at the Thursday Sales, Friday Sales, and OW Sales as of 12AM of Opening Day. Once I got the ratios for the days, I looked at the variance(calculated spread) between the ratios to find consistent comps across all 3 metrics (I know I should have used Saturday and Sunday instead of OW, but I'm lazy). This Thursday Friday Opening Weekend (TFOW) Variance should tell us which comps are most appropriate. I threw out everything over 1 and left the table down below so you could see what my other options were. Given these comps I got the projected Preview Gross and Opening Weekend. Aladdin Wrinkle Ant-Man Grinch Dumbo HT3 HTTYD3 I2 Spiderverse Sales As Of 15168 3632 18174 3538 4219 2380 6943 38044 9756 Thurs Ratio 4.176 0.835 4.287 3.595 6.373 2.185 0.399 1.555 FRI Ratio 2.502 1.921 2.573 2.614 4.232 1.922 0.497 2.987 OW Ratio 2.331 1.368 2.371 2.475 4.522 1.721 0.453 2.009 TFOW Variance 0.693 0.197 0.739 0.249 0.899 0.036 0.002 0.357 TF Difference 1.675 -1.086 1.714 0.981 2.141 0.263 -0.098 -1.432 Preview Gross 1.3 11.5 2.2 1.6 2.6 3 18.5 3.5 Proj PG 5.429 9.598 9.432 5.752 16.570 6.554 7.376 5.442 OW Gross 33.123 75.812 67.572 45.990 44.076 55.022 182.687 35.363 Proj OW 77.211 103.691 160.185 113.806 199.317 94.689 82.828 71.027 The average of all the PGs for the comps is $8.27m, but if you throw out the obvious Hotel Translyvania outlier, you get $7.1m. The estimate spread there is decently tight, so 6-8 is probably reasonable. That's... not great, as the models I have put that in the 69-74m range. The OW projections are way better, looking like $112m with everything, and $90.5m if you throw out the Grinch and Translyvania outliers. There are two known issues - One, I used the 7amCST pull from the fandango report, so that is fudging up the sales for Aladdin. Also, everything else here opened on a 3 day weekend, not a 4. So If you want to nudge things down a little for the extra preview sales, you should also nudge them up for a 4 day weekend. Let's put our range then for the 4 day weekend around 75-95m, with (over the past 5 years) an average of 82% of that being FSS, we are looking at 61.5-77.9m three day. The most consistent comp looks to be I2, which makes a lot of sense, and puts it in the middle of projections.. I'd say both the 3 and 4 day qualify it as neither a dumpster fire nor a tire fire, but also not up to Disney's preseason expectations. As promised, the rejected comps: Movie TFOW Variance Bumblebee 1.38 Christopher Robin 3.66 Little 5.28 Smallfoot 17.01 The House with a Clock in its Walls 3.74 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 15.10 *Pickachu not included because of major Fandango issues. Shazam! not included due to giant early access sales.


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