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Shawn

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Shawn last won the day on June 13 2014

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About Shawn

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  1. You could be right but I think it will depend on how it plays in the coming weeks. Theaters will make sure to keep it booked if it holds well. They need as many family moviegoers as they can get before the holidays. Good point. The lack of appeal to moms and daughters worked against it too.
  2. That pretty much hits the nail on the head as to our reasoning. If it's well enough received, a higher multiple is very doable. I hope we're on the low end, but I also don't see it being significantly higher (WW and GOTG2 territory) right now with promising competition all around it. Can't even rule out something a bit lower than 150/330 either, IMHO.
  3. Opening around Emoji territory is a little surprising. The social media signs (or lack thereof) were there, but everything else was lined up for it until the reviews hit (which honestly shouldn't have hurt that much). At least it still has almost two months with minimal competition.
  4. Over Kingsman and Ninjago? (Prepares for friendly debate...)
  5. I'm glad a major studio has taken it on as well. Personally, I think it looks really interesting and I plan on seeing it. I just wish they had released it in October instead of one week after It. FWIW, we were aiming between $8-12 million for the weekend prediction, which is why we landed on the $9.75m number. Hey @spaghetti!! I'll be the first to admit our holdover accuracy has been a little manic... which is ironic since I find them to be the easier part of forecasting most of the time. Since not many clients ever seem to care about holdovers unless they're still relevant/high earning films though, we've put more focus on the openers and future releases -- which were more of our weak spot until recently -- and it's inadvertently taken a little attention away from older films on the website articles. That's one reason you'll see just the top five more often going forward (like this week). I'd rather have no numbers than rushed ones to fulfill a publishing deadline until I or someone else on the team can devote more time to the extra 5-7 movies each week. Then again, I'm so OCD about this stuff, maybe that'll change again before year's end.
  6. We definitely hit a lull almost two years ago after a big shakeup in the company, but statistically speaking, you're wrong -- or you just haven't paid attention this year. Our new release accuracy has either remained flat or improved in 2017 compared to previous years. Not sure where you're getting your information from. Check your facts...er, sorry, "statistics". If you're talking about mother!, I've actually been told by people I trust that we may very well be on the high-ish end. We'll see. Either way, check your comments in the future, bud. You don't have to agree, but "fucking morons" is excessive given you clearly know my association with the site (not to imply that I "run" it, which I certainly don't). Our track record isn't as perfect as I'd like it to be because I set very high standards, but frankly, it's at least as good as any other outlet's.
  7. In this 20 years I've been following box office, IT has to make the short list of most stunning performances I've witnessed. Good riddance, box office slump.
  8. Regarding the polling, I think a few other people alluded to my answer here already, but most commonly it happens through surveys (in person, over the phone, etc.). It just depends on the research firm and each of their own methods. Of course, now we have the social media factor which is a huge part of the equation. That's where the likes of Boxoffice.com (shameless plug/full disclosure on my part, heh), comScore, and others have expanded the definition of what "tracking" even is. In a lot of cases, I do think there are specific reasons why results are accurate or way off the mark -- it could be anything from not using relevant comps across "traditional" tracking to ignoring the details of social media trends (high volume of mentions/convos does not always equal positive buzz, nor does a low number always equal poor buzz), etc. But there are still times when the science of it all just misses something. Sometimes gut feelings and having an eye for what's going to make for a good or bad movie win the day. As for IT, that's definitely an interesting example. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if it does hit the $60-70m range because it seems like the kind of movie that could transcend its genre and attract a wide age range. I'm sure you and most here know it's been a big social media performer with each trailer release, so that helps. But it's still an R-rated horror film in September... so it's hard to blame anyone saying that kind of opening won't happen. This is where I think it's important to clearly define what the threshold for success and "under-performance" are though, because it can open to half that amount and still be a huge success (especially if WOM/reviews are strong). From what I've seen, I definitely think there's a growing argument for IT to break out. I tend to view tracking and forecasts like stock movements. Until the day the product is finally available, there are going to be incremental shifts in its speculative value dependent upon a lot of other factors, some of which can't always be predicted (example: A Dog's Purpose and the video leak). Oh yes, comps and release dates are pretty common for everyone to use with tracking. The rub of it all comes when each person/company may disagree and use different comps. Data is invaluable, but paralysis by analysis is real. There are still times when a gut feeling and/or sheer years of experience come into play on some level. Some look at a Doctor Strange and see another Ant-Man, where someone else sees Guardians 1 or something else. LEGO Batman was another interesting example of something that was tracking similar to/ahead of similar movies that opened higher than it eventually did. That's why no one ever gets it right 100% of the time. When high profile movies like Dark Tower and Emoji Movie come along with zero reviews or reliable screening buzz until the day before release, it creates even more of a headache. Again... that's where social media becomes powerful nowadays and can completely overrule what had been valid, defensible tracking metrics up until the final hours before release. (Or, for something rare like Suicide Squad, the pedigree of the franchise can overcome poor reviews and still do incredibly well.) But yes, as far as my personal take goes, I definitely wouldn't compare something like It to Star Trek Beyond even if they had nearly identical scores. You're very correct there, in my own opinion. Personally, I'm looking at a variety of movies right now ranging from the Conjuring and Insidious movies to something more outside the box like Super 8, which had a huge nostalgia factor similar to IT. The problem is there aren't many recent comps that combine horror with nostalgia, which is why I think we're seeing such a wide range from tracking. It's a shame we don't have tracking metrics for Stranger Things that would be relevant and comparable to a theatrical release because that's exactly the audience I feel like It is going for... which could be a brilliant move.
  9. I'm not trying to correct you Han, so please forgive me if it sounds that way... *but* this is a bit of a box office myth. There isn't an "official" tracking number per say (unless the studio declares it as such, but even then it can be debatable) although it is often called that by reporters. Anytime we see reports of tracking for a movie, it's simply the number calculated by or given to that outlet by independent trackers and analysts, and they're almost always using interest metrics (which are measured on a scale of 1 to 100) from firms like NRG to calculate -- or just guess -- a projected gross. NRG does not provide box office predictions though. That's why it's rare when everyone agrees on a single number for tracking (Wonder Woman was a great example of this), unless they're getting the same prediction from the same third party source.
  10. No problem! I signed up for it about five years ago when memberships were a flat $35/month. I canceled it because I couldn't justify the cost compared to the number of 2D, non-premium screen movies I see each month... but the $10 rate is certainly making me think about signing up again. Sorry buddy, I'm not sure! I actually didn't realize it wasn't available in Canada yet until you mentioned it. I guess it's probably dependent on whether theater chains up there will be willing to work out a deal in the wake of the new subscription model, but that's just speculation on my part.
  11. Supposedly, Moviepass is planning to monetize (more) through the data business. This $10/month subscription essentially seems like a way to build their customer base and get their name out there even more than it is (which isn't much beyond the film community, so far).
  12. You're too kind, sir. I was such a newb when you and Phil dug me out of the ground. Those were some fun Sundays getting to chat with you guys, though.
  13. The Classic Conversation Thread

    Thanks, @aabattery! I can't speak to the coincidence other than to say...
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