Shawn

Did this, uh, get addressed?

Yeah, test screenings have been pretty strong from what I've heard (although I haven't seen the movie personally). I think it's the kind of family movie that will cross over between parents and tweens/teens in a way similar to Daddy's Home, except with the legs of an original movie playing through 6-7+ weeks of the holiday season instead of opening right at Christmas. Similar to Wonder and The Blind Side, especially since there's not a lot of direct, non-animated competition that crowd in the first month. This is one of those movies that drove our reasoning to change those fields in the long range reports: opening weekends are "tracked", whereas total grosses are more of a prediction because it's based on fewer data-driven statistics (especially for original movies).

Nope.

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You're welcome! Hopefully that came across more tongue-in-cheek than condescending.

@terrestrialnailed it. To clarify, these numbers are not "guesses" but are derived from Boxoffice's tracking models. Granted, interpretation of any variable data is up to mere mortals (like all forms of tracking you read about, no matter how definitive it comes across). If you read the report, Aquaman's range extends up to as much as $60 million based on what we're seeing -- which would be a pretty big start for a December release that won't be as front-loaded as most comic book movies tend to be when opening at other points in the year. Our goal is only to report what the data shows up to that point with as little bias as possible. I generally like to err on the side of caution with movies that show any signs of vulnerability or marketplace disadvantage because businesses make decisions based on those figures, and it's always better to under-project than the alternative. That's why we add written analysis for fuller context. (Still love you though, @Krissykins)

Given the studio's history with Memorial Day-ish openers over the last decade, the release date for Aladdin concerns me despite my absolute adoration for the original movie, Will Smith, and Guy Ritchie. I guess something has to turn around the trend eventually, though...

FWIW, Uni's official studio projection is $80.3 million as of this morning.

To be fair, I haven't seen the movie yet. But at the level it's opening, and the intent of the studio to give it an Oscar push, I wouldn't assume too much based on opening weekend alone. Just my two cents, though.

Poor timing in the wake of ASIB since both target older viewers... First Man maybe even more so. I think FM will leg out just fine, though. Bohemian Rhapsody is the only thing that might dent it in the weeks to come, and that's distant enough not to be a concern, IMHO. I wish I could say $100M Domestic is guaranteed, but it still has a lot of life ahead with a big Oscar push coming in 2-3 months.

I appreciate the guts in making this club, @YourMother the Edgelord. I wouldn't have that kind of courage. But...

I literally never even thought about the fact that the trailer doesn't show the flag being planted. And then I went on the internet.

I haven't been to the theater as much as I would like to this summer, but I've seen a ton of ads for it -- both trailers and brief 30-second ads. With Universal backing it, I wouldn't worry at all about marketing. This will probably have some of the widest ad penetration of any non-Marvel movie in 2018 by the time we get to the holidays.

I agree 100%.

What's the difference between the two, in your opinion?