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Shawn

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Shawn last won the day on June 13 2014

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About Shawn

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  • Birthday July 30

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  1. I'm embarrassingly late here, but thank you so much for all your time dedicated here, @Spaghetti. So many memories all the way back to BOM days. You're an icon around here. Best of wishes, my friend.
  2. Yeah, that's a fair point too. I could see a 2.5x multi being doable if WOM really leans positive, I'd just rather under shoot than overshoot. My gut says this could be this year's It in terms of blowing away expectations on OW in fall, largely because it feels like the closest we'll ever get to the kind of interest a second Ledger Joker movie would have had a decade ago. The downside there is it will be hard to live up to that kind of fermented expectation (regarding Ledger-level performance) if this really does breakout into the 100-120+ range from the outset. But maybe this changes the game on what constitutes a "comic book audience" like Deadpool and Logan did.
  3. Being cautious since it sounds like it will be very divisive (second hand info, I didn't see the movie myself) + the usual DC fan front loading. Hoping it goes much higher, but also kinda feels like Watchmen on steroids. Comic book source + no family audience is tricky.
  4. Everything good here now?
  5. I'll have to double check our models. I wouldn't imagine we factored heavy 3D sales in, but it's possible. What surprises me is the lack of PLF showtimes I'm seeing in my area, but that may be localized and very temporary.
  6. You bet! Yeah, I have to admit the presales made me double check things quite a bit recently -- not to mention all of June. Range-wise, I'd say our floor is around $70M right now -- so we're definitely on the bullish end with that pinpoint number at $94M.
  7. Tracking just slightly behind Fate of the Furious and pretty far ahead of MI: Fallout at same point based on data I looked at this week. We thought about lowering it more, but that feels a little reactionary three weeks out. Wouldn't rule it out though, even though this feels like walk-up kind of movie IMO.
  8. That would be fantastic. Part of me now wants to err on the side of caution and look at Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger's multipliers since they had the Fourth land on Thursday as well (whereas it landed on Wednesday for TASM). But FFH's word of mouth could be strong enough to help it over that 2.75x-ish hump from Friday. Great results all round, though!
  9. Nope, that was based on our earlier tracking. Important to focus on the range mentioned in the article, though. That $200M figure was increasingly optimistic in recent weeks.
  10. Sorry for the delayed reply here... Unfortunately, studios don't release admission data for many countries. It would take quite a bit of research to even come up with an extremely rough estimate of global admissions due to ticket price inflation, currency exchanges, and local trends/discounts relative to respective countries. Admittedly, I haven't personally bothered with that at this point because the ticket sales debate often just leads to a black hole of assumptions and best guesses -- especially when comparing two films a decade apart. That being said, as much of an MCU fan as I am, my off-the-top-of-my-head-guess says Avatar probably sold more tickets per capita because its been nearly 10 years of inflation and market expansion. In fairness, though, a huge portion of Avatar's sales were for 3D (70-80% globally, IIRC) and those tickets had notable premiums added on, so I can see where the debate arises in relation to Endgame. I'd actually love to break it down (or see someone else's breakdown if they do it first) because part of me does wonder if it might be closer than we think.
  11. Which part specifically are you asking about? Which film sold more estimated tickets globally?
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