Shawn

Nailed it.

And yeah, we blew Aquaman early on -- even though our final opening weekend # was too high. One thing I've learned over the years is that DC movies rarely go the way one thinks they will. They behave very differently in tracking than most comic book movies, which makes for a damn headache when trying to find reliable comps. As for now, we're comping Shazam! pretty closely with something like Ant-Man or Ready Player One (mainly for the spring release, teen cast, and fan aspect).

I wish we had a bias for Disney. Would have been a lot closer on Black Panther and Incredibles 2 last year. 😐

That's actually a thing around here?

Which is exactly what we said in the report.

Actually, we were pretty close on 2 of his 3. https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2/ http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

Great explanation, @CoolEric258 Yes, we factor in both internal tracking (Trailer Impact + social media) as well as traditional industry tracking. The latter is what most refer to as "official" tracking, but that's a misnomer in itself because the tracking everyone reads across the trades (Deadline, Variety, THR, TheWrap, etc.) is typically part of a managed set of numbers -- in other words, those are the numbers that the various trackers and/or studios want the public to see and not necessarily what the film is actually tracking at. Sometimes it's accurate...sometimes it isn't. Conversely, Boxoffice tries to weigh a balance between what films are actually tracking at versus what the-powers-that-be want the media to report (one of the advantages of being an independent outlet). @ThomasNicoleIt's also important to remember that total grosses are not "tracked". Those are merely extrapolations based on current buzz, which is why they change week-to-week (so do the opening weekend numbers) at times. "Tracking" only applies to opening weekend numbers, whereas total forecasts are based on far more debatable metrics and historical performances of similar films. A great example of this is Glass, which has been tracking at the level of Halloween for weeks now -- but you don't see that reported in the trades. You also don't see a specific reaction to reviews factored into the tracking from trades, which is shown in ours this week with a significant decrease. I'll be the first to acknowledge our missed calls on Mary Poppins and Aquaman several months out from release, but that ignores the number of other forecasts we generally hit the target on and/or acknowledge the full range of potential (or lack thereof) within the analysis itself. 2018 in general was an anomaly at times because so many films under-tracked against even the most optimistic models (one reason that it set a record by such a large margin is so impressive). Black Panther is the greatest example of that, which was basically the Avatar of the year in that no one could pinpoint how culturally impactful it would be. Similarly, you can look back at our archives and notice that our tracking steadily moved in the right direction for those films in the weeks leading up to release (shrinking the gap between Aquaman and Poppins before eventually it was clear that Aquaman was going to be the clear winner over Christmas). We also were fairly accurate with films like Halloween, A Star Is Born, House with a Clock, Grinch, Ralph, Bumblebee, Spider-Verse, The Mule, and others. Further back, some of our bigger accurate calls were for movies like Force Awakens & Last Jedi (we tracked the latter around $215M two months out from release), Dunkirk, Guardians 2, Beauty and the Beast, Logan, Doctor Strange, and others. I don't like humble-bragging, but I'm just saying... if you're going to point out the shoddy calls, at least play fair and note some of the better ones. Box office tracking is like a weather forecast. It's always imperfect and never be taken too strictly without a thorough analysis behind the numbers. It's also not unlike baseball, where you can get something right one in three at-bats and be considered a great player. The bar is a little higher in tracking, but you get the general point: it's not a perfect science, and never will be because of the human factor.

Did this, uh, get addressed?

Yeah, test screenings have been pretty strong from what I've heard (although I haven't seen the movie personally). I think it's the kind of family movie that will cross over between parents and tweens/teens in a way similar to Daddy's Home, except with the legs of an original movie playing through 6-7+ weeks of the holiday season instead of opening right at Christmas. Similar to Wonder and The Blind Side, especially since there's not a lot of direct, non-animated competition that crowd in the first month. This is one of those movies that drove our reasoning to change those fields in the long range reports: opening weekends are "tracked", whereas total grosses are more of a prediction because it's based on fewer data-driven statistics (especially for original movies).

Nope.

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You're welcome! Hopefully that came across more tongue-in-cheek than condescending.

@terrestrialnailed it. To clarify, these numbers are not "guesses" but are derived from Boxoffice's tracking models. Granted, interpretation of any variable data is up to mere mortals (like all forms of tracking you read about, no matter how definitive it comes across). If you read the report, Aquaman's range extends up to as much as $60 million based on what we're seeing -- which would be a pretty big start for a December release that won't be as front-loaded as most comic book movies tend to be when opening at other points in the year. Our goal is only to report what the data shows up to that point with as little bias as possible. I generally like to err on the side of caution with movies that show any signs of vulnerability or marketplace disadvantage because businesses make decisions based on those figures, and it's always better to under-project than the alternative. That's why we add written analysis for fuller context. (Still love you though, @Krissykins)

Given the studio's history with Memorial Day-ish openers over the last decade, the release date for Aladdin concerns me despite my absolute adoration for the original movie, Will Smith, and Guy Ritchie. I guess something has to turn around the trend eventually, though...

FWIW, Uni's official studio projection is $80.3 million as of this morning.