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Shawn last won the day on June 13 2014

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About Shawn

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  1. Everything good here now?
  2. I'll have to double check our models. I wouldn't imagine we factored heavy 3D sales in, but it's possible. What surprises me is the lack of PLF showtimes I'm seeing in my area, but that may be localized and very temporary.
  3. You bet! Yeah, I have to admit the presales made me double check things quite a bit recently -- not to mention all of June. Range-wise, I'd say our floor is around $70M right now -- so we're definitely on the bullish end with that pinpoint number at $94M.
  4. Tracking just slightly behind Fate of the Furious and pretty far ahead of MI: Fallout at same point based on data I looked at this week. We thought about lowering it more, but that feels a little reactionary three weeks out. Wouldn't rule it out though, even though this feels like walk-up kind of movie IMO.
  5. That would be fantastic. Part of me now wants to err on the side of caution and look at Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger's multipliers since they had the Fourth land on Thursday as well (whereas it landed on Wednesday for TASM). But FFH's word of mouth could be strong enough to help it over that 2.75x-ish hump from Friday. Great results all round, though!
  6. Nope, that was based on our earlier tracking. Important to focus on the range mentioned in the article, though. That $200M figure was increasingly optimistic in recent weeks.
  7. Sorry for the delayed reply here... Unfortunately, studios don't release admission data for many countries. It would take quite a bit of research to even come up with an extremely rough estimate of global admissions due to ticket price inflation, currency exchanges, and local trends/discounts relative to respective countries. Admittedly, I haven't personally bothered with that at this point because the ticket sales debate often just leads to a black hole of assumptions and best guesses -- especially when comparing two films a decade apart. That being said, as much of an MCU fan as I am, my off-the-top-of-my-head-guess says Avatar probably sold more tickets per capita because its been nearly 10 years of inflation and market expansion. In fairness, though, a huge portion of Avatar's sales were for 3D (70-80% globally, IIRC) and those tickets had notable premiums added on, so I can see where the debate arises in relation to Endgame. I'd actually love to break it down (or see someone else's breakdown if they do it first) because part of me does wonder if it might be closer than we think.
  8. Which part specifically are you asking about? Which film sold more estimated tickets globally?
  9. True story: I was lurking in both topics and think I meant to post that in the TLK thread at the time.
  10. Yeah, that's kinda what I'm implying. I just wouldn't call it a fudge yet -- mainly because we have no idea how they'll really get it there. For all we know, they'll do it in a completely legitimate way. And for all we know, this re-release was planned all along. They did it with Infinity War, after all, which had no significant benchmarks to reach at the box office (IIRC)
  11. I'm hesitant to really speculate one way or the other how Disney will get it there. I was just outlining some of the best possibilities that came to mind. I'm really only mentioning the idea of "backloading" receipts because I've been told from someone at a studio with more knowledge of the inner studio reporting methods that multiple films have excluded all their earnings from opening weekend and/or preview shows to have them spread out through the course of the run, or lumped into the very end of a run. I have no idea how or even if Disney will do that with Endgame, but there's precedent for it at least. $20M might seem like a lot more, but in terms of scale, it really isn't. A $20m push is less than 1% of the overall global take. That's the equivalent in percentage terms of getting a movie an extra $2M to $200M. Has Disney pocketed (not reported) that much money for Avengers up to this point in its run? I have no idea. That's pure conjecture on anyone's part. Will they double book it with Toy Story 4 to count grosses both toward films? Maybe, maybe not -- but there's definitely precedent for this that we can actually see with past box office reporting, especially with Disney films having incredible holds during past openings of their own films.
  12. Disney was saying $140M earlier this week. They lowball more often than they overshoot, so I think that's a fair benchmark at this point. Pre-sales really over-inflated expectations, it seems. Also think a lot of trackers forgot there would be no Father's Day bump like Incredibles 2 had. But I'm always a believer in slumping markets building an invisible momentum toward breakout openings. The last few weeks of openers could qualify as that.
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