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Shawn last won the day on June 13 2014

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About Shawn

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  • Birthday July 30

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  1. Such as? I'm genuinely asking. What were your specific disagreements? What were your final predictions for every single movie that's released over the last 9 months?
  2. I know you're kidding, but just want to say I'm not slighting at all -- if anything, I think the data you all collect around here is impressive from the snippets I've seen. And trust me, I understand first-hand how time intensive it is.
  3. The models I'm referring to include sales, including a few sales-exclusive models. I've seen some of the data I presume you're talking about it and it has both under- and over-estimated recently. That's just the nature of everyone's models over time, independent or otherwise. There isn't a perfect science. FWIW, $3.5M Thursday was slightly below our final projection as a share of the whole weekend.
  4. Thanks re: the latter. 👍 We're 36% higher than the studio number, so I'm not sure I'd agree that's "way" low. I *hope* it's low because that'll be good news for theaters and the filmmakers and movie fans, but based on the models I've seen (both our own and others'), I'm equally concerned we could be too high as I am that we could be too conservative. Low 30s is a fair middle ground based on the cumulative data points and historical comps. The question now is just which set of data points win out and I'm not convinced any of them have significantly stronger arguments tha
  5. Just popping in to say hey to everyone, and... what a freakin' great weekend. Go, Spidey, go!
  6. This is (mostly) incorrect. While Venom's surge might have been in mind, NTTD's public forecast hasn't been updated since Venom 2 reported a single box office dollar (and even as of Friday, $90M wasn't within our range for that movie). Boxoffice PRO's ranges are generally finalized on Thursdays, with rare exceptions. Also, fair game to debate our ranges, but I'd recommend more people actually read the analysis from time to time before cherry picking/speculating/assuming things. Those ranges exist for a reason, and while the midpoint is *often* close to the paywalled forecast, that'
  7. Likewise, my friend! It's been too long since we caught up. Hope things are well.
  8. Yep, the studio hasn't gone on the record with any tracking to my knowledge. And Universal is only handling the international distribution; MGM/UAR has it here (they're the ones who provided the location count last week too, not Uni -- so they'll be the ones reporting box office each day). And yeah, our Bond numbers are definitely updating actively with Venom in mind... as are a few other releases this month possibly.
  9. Fair points. It's quite late here and I'm typing on my phone, so I can't give a properly in-depth answer here other than to agree there always has to be a somewhat subjective cutoff on both sides of the banding -- but while informed by as much data as we can get. Most of these ranges under discussion don't cover a wide range beyond reasonable probability, IMO, in part because this is still a pandemic market with variables no one has ever had to factor into forecasting. If we were talking about something like a range of $100-300M on opening weekend, then yeah, I would ag
  10. First off, no, Boxoffice PRO doesn't own the forums anymore. They haven't since 2014. Second, I'm just going to laugh at Scott's post and move on. Third, the ranges exist for a reason. If someone is interested in more precise forecasts, they are welcome to pay for them like clients do. We give out a lot more for free consumption than most other publications. It would be a disservice to subscribers and the business as a whole to give everything for free 100% of the time. I see what you mean in respects, but being "bold" isn't our goal when aiming to be objec
  11. Cume Cume Territory LC USD Russia RBL 564.1m $7.8m France €6.3m $7.5m Germany €4.4m $5.2m Italy €2.2m $2.5m Spain €2.1m $2.4m Holland €1.2m $1.4m Ukraine UAH 34.0m $1.3m Taiwan NT$ 34.8m $1.3m Denmark DKK 7.2m $1.1m Norway
  12. Yep, here's what they sent on Monday (local currency / USD): Russia RBL 564.1m $7.8m France €6.3m $7.5m Germany €4.4m $5.2m Italy €2.2m $2.5m Spain €2.1m $2.4m
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