Shawn

Likewise, sir. Just sorry it's under these circumstances. It's surreal not to see more people / discussion on this board during the middle of July on a weekend.

I'm presuming he's referring to the fact that so many states, especially in the south, felt the jump to total lockdowns in March was sudden and disproportionate to the spread of the virus (relative to the major outbreaks in NY and CA at the time). As a result, a lot of people in regions like where I live (TN) feel like it was pointless or over-reactionary... and now that they/we know what that was like, there's an even stronger resistance to doing it again regardless of the fact that the virus outbreak is spiking closer to home now. Also... hello, Tele and everyone.

No worries, I didn't take it as a critique necessarily -- just wanted to highlight a bit more insight on what goes into the numbers we put out. We did use to rely more heavily on social a few years back. It's still a big factor, no doubt, but a smaller portion of the recipe than it once was. I tend to do similar pre-sales watching with certain theaters I'm familiar with and major metro areas, but it's time consuming on one's own (as I know a lot of you know!) Definitely agree on long range tending to have a wider range of results. That's one reason we started including ranges alongside the pinpoint numbers last year. I've seen a few bits of the pre-sales catching you and others do in this thread and it's awesome work. Hope you all keep it up!

We actually include a variety of metrics, not just social (esp. close to release). Accuracy is generally only relevant in apples-to-apples comps and/or upon release week since a variety of elements are always in play. Bit unfair to compare any service tracking weeks/months out to data that's not available until much later in the pre-release window. Tracking is really just a barometer of where things are heading at any given point in time, not an official prediction. That's the biggest difference between traditional tracking and looking at pre-sales -- the latter is a set-in-stone sales point that removes more of the challenge of separating interest from actual intent to see on opening weekend, but it's also limited in its use because (by definition) it can only include movies that are on sale. Dolittle was a good example because it only tracked (in our models) ahead of BBFL before reviews started leaking. Two weeks out, we showed BBFL steadily climbing higher. Everything else is measured in surveys, historical comps, and trend-based elements that are open to fluctuation at any given time. To be fair though, we include pre-sales trajectories and that kind of tracking has proven fairly volatile too depending on what samples and what comps one looks at. There's always a certain subjectivity to all of this. That's why we focus on all available data and update as necessary, not just one subset of info at one point in time.

Also, full disclosure, I reopened the poll to vote because I didn't realize there was a poll to begin with... so if my vote was already accounted for somehow, SW being included should be at 15 instead of 16... 😶

Throwing in my two cents here: Superhero movies, to me, aren't a genre. They're just types of movies and can apply to many different genres (The Dark Knight is a high-level crime thriller, Guardians of the Galaxy is sci-fantasy-comedy, Logan dabbles in western tropes, etc.). No different than how "animation" is not a genre -- just a medium. Regarding the "science" element of "sci-fi" -- this is all make-believe, anyway. Fiction from our current perspectives. I think Star Wars qualifies here because, even though it's rooted more in fantasy and myth than science-driven storytelling like Star Trek or Gravity or Interstellar, it's not exactly something we can't prove won't ever be possible or isn't possible. To quote another interpretation of Clarke's three laws, "any technology, no matter how primitive, is magic to those who don't understand it." 100 years ago, smartphones were inconceivable to most. Even half a century ago, they seemed like an unrealistic version of "sci-fi" if you weren't a Star Trek watcher. Who's to say lightsabers and light-speed travel (also present in Star Trek, which is generally given the classification of science fiction) won't be used in the same context in the next few hundred (or less) years?

Yeah, it's tough to say but I get more of a Wrinkle In Time/Dumbo vibe than Cinderella/Maleficent so far. Our early tracking for it will be out in a few weeks but that will of course not yet factor in reviews and final marketing. Also, I haven't actually tabulated the specific top 15 as of now based on our forecasts, so I was initially guessing that's what the article was based around since I keep that data internal and for clients until the Long Range window hits. Looks like it was a New Year's kind of filler piece to get fresh content on the site while everyone was on break, excluding any numbers for obvious reasons, but it is fairly close to what I have as the top 15 for the year as of around Christmas. But the actual numbers are constantly in flux when you're talking about a full year's window and lots of schedule changes yet to come. There's at least one on that list I probably wouldn't include were it written today, e.g.

Not sure -- I wasn't actually involved or consulted with for that article. At first glance though, it looks like it's intended to cover the top 15 based on current forecasts. Mulan wouldn't make that cut, at the moment, but I do think it has potential if these negative rumors don't pan out.

There's where I'm thinking TROS will have some sort of hybrid of those extreme drops/increases between the A2/H2 comparisons. The micro-projections are always the pain of forecasting, IMO, and dailies around the holidays certainly fit that bill to me.

I appreciate the vote of confidence... this time of year is such a headache though. 😆 I'm looking at Anchorman 2 as a rough comp right now. Opened 2 days earlier in 2013 and didn't have the obvious fan rush, but also had very mixed WOM and less family appeal. Figuring TROS can at least come close to its daily progressions post-OW based on the notion of backloaded presales and the RT audience score being more representative than CinemaScore (which I rarely put much stock in anyway). Hobbit 2 would be a more bullish comparison but maybe worth considering with some adjustments for the fact it opened earlier.

Thanks! Should be fixed now.

I think you're right. Also, don't feel too bad about missing it on Mojo -- I think they snuck it in after the initial estimates post... What irks me is that Addams Family had nary a Friday estimate to be found earlier today. That should still be doing well enough to warrant an update from the studio, IMO, given its pursuit of $100M.

Well, the studio doesn't report those numbers on Saturdays, unfortunately. I went with the Mojo reported # because one other contact I know of (not Mojo) said it made $7K Friday as well. It's possible they were just quoting Mojo, but hard to be sure. Perhaps Mojo's # should have been $70K (which makes more sense, honestly).

I guess that "time" will end up being a little over six years and nine months. Early congratulations to Joker!

Psst... https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-estimates-doctor-sleep-midway-last-christmas-playing-with-fire/ 😉 (Just wish we had seen it coming sooner...) 😆 😕