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filmscholar

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Everything posted by filmscholar

  1. Looks like another fun "Bad Boys" Film. Should be a crowd pleaser though these movies are R-Rated. Will definitely win on June 7th over "The Crow" remake. Then have a nice 2nd frame on father's day weekend against "Inside Out".
  2. Yeah from what I'm hearing is these are mostly "Reshoots" and the film was pretty much done last year. Anyways, June 7 is a much better release date. I didn't like it going up against "Inside Out 2". Pixar is still Pixar even though they've been more on a downward trend as of late. Children's summer films always seem to do pretty well. "The Crow" is a niche cult audience but not a threat for Bad Boys to win the weekend. 50 Million is probably the floor right now but with Summer weekdays I think it won't drop much from "Bad Boys for Life". This is the quickest turnover for a film in the franchise that's basically 30 years old now. BB - 95 BB II - 03 (8 Years later) BB III - 00 (17 Years later) BB IV - 04 (4 Years later)
  3. Very happy for Denzel. Before the "Equalizer" Trilogy, he never did a sequel and still generated over 3 Billion at the Worldwide Box office with a lot of dramas in there mostly. He's worked with Spike Lee and Tony Scott the most throughout this run. I'm happy he has a successful Trilogy now. I remember when "Equalizer" and "John Wick" came out in 2014. I very please with both franchises. I still can't believe "Gladiator 2" is really happening and Denzel is going to be in it. But yes Denzel is one of the last real Stars we have left. He's always been a very consistent draw. He has a sweet spot for Fall and Winter time too.
  4. "Barbie" like "Super Mario Bros" is a multi-generational phenomenon. Especially for Girls and Woman. When I saw a "Barbie" the movie was being made. I thought "Well it could end up a little campy but if it taps into all those little girls that played with Barbie's for decades, watch out". With that said, I honestly didn't expect this. Most of the movies this summer seemed to be tailored to young boys and Men. "Barbie" did the exact opposite and leaned into marketing towards Woman. This numbers are astronomical honestly. I have to say, "Barbie" may have run the Best Marketing Campaign I've seen in over a Decade. I'm serious. This movie had ads all over the place for the last year. Those pink colors have been everywhere. Also the Casting worked because I don't think you have these numbers with a new actress and actor in leads. Margot and Ryan have both built up some good will over the years. Sure they had some averages numbers here or there. But this may be the breakout moment for them especially Margot. As for Nolan, he loves releasing in July but those are good numbers for a 3 hour Drama about the atomic bomb. He could had a #1 if he released it in a different weekend. It's a good rebound for him after the "Tenet" situation. It's also ironic that WB is taking the #1 over him this weekend though after everything that happen. As for "Mission Impossible". The movie was fantastic but the release date seems to have been an issue sadly. They were running away from Harrison and Indy and ran into a Barbie Wall. Also "Sound Of Freedom" is taking away a strong demos from "MI7". I was hard on "Elemental" when it opened but I'm very impressed with it's Legs. Remember this is an original animation and it gave young Kids a film to latch onto this summer. Sure "Spideyverse" also got kids too but this targeted even younger children. I think Weekend shows though Sequels can still generate but there must be a healthy mixture with new and original properties. Hollywood should not rely heavily on Sequels to carry the water for the Box office. Overall though there have been some disappointing numbers. I think this has been a pretty good Summer. The problem is we have to keep our expectations at bay post Pandemic.
  5. I know Tom's has a busy schedule but after "Maverick" numbers, "Top Gun 3" should have been greenlit immediately for a 2025- 2026 release. Tom needs to finish the Trilogy before he eventually slows down on the Action stuff. "Mission Impossible" may be his biggest overall Franchise but "Top Gun 3" has the potential of another Billion which "Mission" has never done.
  6. "Mission Impossible" does a great job spreading the sequels out and not beating everyone over head every other year. With that said, the "Espionage" Genre does have it's ceiling. Sure Bond can make 6-700, "Mission" would be 2nd in the Genre then everything else is 500 and under. I also didn't agree there would be a so called "Maverick" Bump. "Top Gun" like "Mario", "No Way Home" and "Avatar 2" became a "Must-See" event. It was also a long awaited Sequel. This is the 7th Mission Impossible. Though it's been 5 years, it's not like people "Missed" The Franchise like they missed "Top Gun" (36 year wait). Like "Fast X", I'm thinking Overseas will save the day for "Mission" if it comes under "Mission 96" Domestic unadjusted.
  7. 24 Million OD for a Franchise that's over 40 years old and a Legendary Star in the twilight of his career. I'd call this a good number. I know, I Know. The Budget. But considering this is 1980's property, I'm trying to look at this in a historical point of view. Indy is still popular and relevant enough to Win the Box Office after 40 Years. Plus the last sequel was 15 years ago and previous sequel was 19 years before that. So there's been huge gaps too. Obviously it's not making "Crystal Skull" numbers but with the Holiday coming up and decent WOM, I think it can do pretty good.
  8. Interesting estimates, well see tomorrow how everything goes. But based on that, JLaw won Friday but is going to lose the weekend. I guess those aren't too bad numbers for a Romcom. "Elemental" I guess that's a decent hold but the OW wasn't good. But it's stabilizing slightly now. I'm just speechless on Spideyverse 2 domestically. With all this competition, it's still bringing in those dollars. I think Overseas numbers does better by the third film. Audiences are still getting to know this version of Spiderman. There really isn't nothing to say about the "Flash". Let's just say it's a sinking ship. "Black Adam" will remain the highest grossing DC film until I guess "Aquaman 2". Even if it drops from the original, I still see i doing more than 400 WW. Transformers is just "There'. It's making money but i's not really breaking out at all after winning it's weekend. The Competition really did hurt it most IMO. "Fast X, Flash, Spiderverse" are pretty much the same Demo's. Speaking of Fast X, Overseas literally is going propel it to 700 Million. If they get the budget in check they will be fine. LM is crawling to 300 Million but it's looking like it should get there. So as of right now, Spiderverse is the movie of the summer until further notice.
  9. Damn it dropped all the way to 4th place already and it's behind "Elemental". These "Flash" numbers are beyond a mess. Anyways, I guess Indy V has a clean opening next weekend. Pretty much mostly holdovers. Hopefully we get some good news.
  10. People in the media and online talked a lot of trash about the Rock and "Black Adam" performance but when you pull the curtain back, General Audiences do not know "Black Adam" like that yet The Rock almost got it to 400 Million WW. The "Flash" had 2 Batman's in it so what's the excuse? "Black Adam" wasn't as bad of a performance as many proclaimed again I think the budget was a little much for a character not known as much.
  11. A Flash movie with 2 Batman's grosses less than "Black Adam" and only barely above "Shazam 2". "Transformers" with a huge drop. "Elemental" with one of Pixar's lowest openings. Man That's a lot of bad headlines this weekend. I honestly thought some of the 120-140 Flash talk was crazy personally. But 55 is even lower than I could imagine. Wow.
  12. Well I'm not one to give "Excuses" or "Spin" per say. But I believe "Transformers 7" walked away with a Moral Victory this weekend. Yes I wanted 70 Million but 60 Million with Spidey on it's heels and even "TLM" still generating isn't as bad. Also some of that Early Tracking was looking really horrible. Not to mention "Fast X" is still there which matches demos. I think "Transformers" did pretty good all things considered. It's Global Total wasn't that bad either. Yes normally a "Transformers" Movie doing this type OW isn't the greatest sign but it was like a "Destroy and Rebuild" Situation. After "TLK" they went back to the drawing board. I think this shows "Bumblebee" had some good will from General Audiences. They gave this one a shot. "Spidey" had a good hold considering "Transformers' ate into it's 2nd weekend. Both films have very similar demos. Overall I'm very pleased with this weekend because this was a lot of Blockbusters vying for space and Audiences found what they were looking for. So "Transformers" got 170 WW OW, let's see where it can land. "Spidey" looks to be one of the Tops Domestically this year for sure. ' As for the Holdovers. "Fast X" clearly didn't have the biggest domestic total but Worldwide really did save it overall. 600 Million is still a strong result. The problem was always the budget, reign that in and they should do better on the next two films especially with The Rock coming back. "TLM" is holding pretty well all things considered. Looks like Guardians is headed to just about where "Vol. 2" Landed WW. Where it started, that's not a bad result. I don't know when another Comic Book Film will see a Billion again, we'll have to see. Obviously Spidey or an Avengers Film will have that type of hype. We've had some close ones recently but 800 Million seems to be the new Ceiling. Again, I liked this weekend. As for "Flash", I've heard all the pros and cons, After this weekend I think the jury is still out on what it's going to do. We'll see.
  13. 9 Million? Could Transformers be back? Not Bad. That's almost what "TLM" made previews. And more than "Fast X"'s 7 Million. Maybe over 70 OW is in the cards folks, "Fast X" made 67 off 7 Million Previews. Doesn't "Transformers" always do well in China/Asia too. "SV2" is still doing gangbusters domestically. I didn't think it would Top "Mario" but I was very pleased with 120 and it's weekdays are doing good. But there's some cross demos with Teen/Young Adults seeing "Transformers" and "SV2" this weekend. I also agree with what someone already said, this is going to be a big Market test. We've essentially had 3 Straight Mega OW's. I don't think we've seen this since the Pandemic as far as Big Openers back to back to back to back in a short time. Many thought "Transformers" was going to get the short end of the stick. But don't underestimate these 1980's Properties. They have very loyal fanbases. "Bumblebee" was marketed as a more small adventure. This one was marketed as a return to the Big Transformers spectacle and it dropped it right in June just as Summer really kicks off. This is why I will not write off "Indy 5". These Multi-Generational Fanbases are very loyal.
  14. I was hoping for a Billion for TLM but I underestimated this market. It's not fully back yet guys. I'm lowering all my projections for this summer. I'm sorry I have to. So I'm going to judge "TLM" against the market. Domestically it's a pretty good opening. Obviously overseas leaves more to be desired. The reason I felt a Billion could be possible is because "The Little Mermaid" though not as popular as "TLK, Aladdin or BATB" was a huge home video seller in the 90's including two straight to video sequels. But that's the biggest difference. The other 3 were big in the theater and home video. "TLM" only did decent numbers theatrically but exploded on Home Video. Looking at it's numbers compared to the other 3, I guess the Big 4 is going to be just like it did original. "TLK" being the biggest and most popular. The difference is "BATB" did better on Live Action were as "Aladdin" did better on Animation. Hailey did a great job as Ariel by all accounts. But she's still a rising star. "BATB" had Emma coming off "Harry Potter" fame. "Aladdin" had Will Smith who one of the last draws in Hollywood that can sell a movie off his name and "TLK" had Beyoncé who also did the soundtrack. All three of those stars were really huge sellers for those remakes. As for next week, "Spidey-Verse 2" should do good but some of the huge projections I don't agree with. Yes it won the Oscar and is much more popular now so I expect a bigger OW. But some seem to think "No Way Home" success will also give it a bump so we'll see. "Fast X" is stalling domestically, again Overseas will have to save the day. It's already over 500 Million. Mario is headed for 1.3 for sure but 1.4 isn't looking as likely anyways, it's going to win the Year most likely. Also congrats to the "John Wick" Franchise hitting a Billion, it just keeps getting bigger and bigger at the box office. "Chapter 4" was fantastic, cool to see Keanu still killin it 20 years after "Matrix Reloaded". Could we see another increase on the sequel? Bring on Chapter 5. Lastly GOTG 3 legged it's way to very solid numbers.
  15. 1989 these movies came out: Batman 89 (first movie) Ghostbuster 2 (Sequel) Indy and The Last Crusade (Sequel) The Little Mermaid (Stand alone) 2023 these movies are releasing: Flash (First Flash movie, Keaton is featured in the film from Batman 89) Ghostbusters Afterlife 2 is coming (Sequel) Indy 5 (Sequel) The Little Mermaid (Stand Alone Remake)
  16. The First "Transformers" was the best one (Transformers The Movie in the 80's remains my fav though). I even like 2 and 3 action wise even though they had story issues. I enjoyed "Bumblebee" but it felt too safe like they wanted to scale it down. Michael Bay's Spectacle is why the franchise has made as much as it has. 4 & 5 I didn't like. Sorry but Mark Walberg felt a little too old to lead a Transformers movie. They should always be lead by Younger Adults with only Older Adults assisting the adventure. They learned form their mistakes as this film clearly is going for that with the new leads. Also "Bumblebee" also had a young lead.
  17. 38? So about 27-28 TF possible. Here's what "Aladdin" did Four Years ago Domestically same weekend: May 24 Friday 1 $31,358,935 - - 4,476 $7,006 $31,358,935 1 May 25 Saturday 1 $30,013,295 -4.3% - 4,476 $6,705 $61,372,230 2 May 26 Sunday 1 $30,128,699 +0.4% - 4,476 $6,731 $91,500,929 3 May 27 Memorial Day Monday 1 $25,305,033 -16% - 4,476 $5,653 $116,805,962 4 As you can see, "Aladdin" had a pretty solid Sunday hold into Monday. Mind you there was some competition that summer of 2019. As for us keeping our expectations guarded for this whole summer. I think it's just fun to have these big speculations again. With so many Big movies coming out back to back to back, we're all wondering what will be the biggest breakout. With that said even though I brought up "Aladdin", that was a more healthier box office market. Things have changed over the last 3 years with streaming exploding and the pandemic. We are starting to see more and more flashes of a return to form. Hopefully that number holds.
  18. Dammit, I wanted "Mario" to surpass "Incredibles 2" domestically. It needed to be at like 575 before "Little Mermaid". Damn man. Too many family films coming up. Still a fantastic run overall. As for "Fast X" again overseas saved the day and will make a respectable final gross though Domestically isn't doing gangbusters. Again "Guardians 3" has held pretty well. It seems a "Finale Bump" and WOM have helped it's legs and superseded some of this Comic Fatigue going on. So let's see where it finishes overall.
  19. What's the overseas schedule looking like? Is Disney opening this everywhere on Friday? I've seen some tracking that had it definitely surpassing "Cinderella" WW. I was more focused on the fact "The Little Mermaid" is definitely in the "Big 4" so we'll see how it does. I forgot how well "Maleficent" did. 750 Million WW was wild. So I see "Little Mermaid" doing better domestically than both those two I guess like you said, the overseas will be the question.
  20. Even though "Bumble Bee" and "The Last Knight" didn't do as Hot as the previous entries. I have a feeling this one is going to be much better than the those last two. "Transformers" Main line films seem to do very well. Now yes you've got Spidey-verse 2 and Flash with Transformers sandwiched in the middle. That's a lot of cross demos interacting with each other those three weeks. One thing I will give "Transformers" is teens and young adult males enjoy the franchise. Right now I feel it's going over "Bumblebee" for sure. All the Trailers seems to be getting a good response. "The Last Knight" did 600 Million WW. So that's the bar right now for me.
  21. As far as these lukewarm reviews, I think like "Indy" as a franchise is probably critic proof at this point. It's too Legendary, people will give it a shot and form their own opinions. Also this is being marketed as the final ride for Harrison. I remember 2008 very well. There were some folks underestimating Indy's power. Some said 19 years was too long of wait. Well "Crystal Skulls" legged it's way to some very solid box office numbers that year. Obviously this is a different time and it's 15 years later from that. Would I be shocked if it dropped from the last Indy? No but I also wouldn't be shocked if it surprised either. Right now for me, I tracking this against "Crystal Skulls" which did this over it's first 5 days which featured Memorial Day Holiday: May 22 Thursday 1 $25,041,072 - - 4,260 $5,878 $25,041,072 1 May 23 Friday 1 $30,571,275 +22.1% - 4,260 $7,176 $55,612,347 2 May 24 Saturday 1 $36,533,839 +19.5% - 4,260 $8,576 $92,146,186 3 May 25 Sunday 1 $33,032,721 -9.6% - 4,260 $7,754 $125,178,907 4 May 26 Memorial Day Monday 1 $26,779,538 -18.9% - 4,260 $6,286 $151,958,445 Now Indy 5 has a Holiday Five Day as well (Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon-Tues/Holiday). People will be taking Mon and Tuesday and probably Wednesday off for 4th of July Holiday. So Indy has a nice opportunity to do something here. Yes it's going to be a crowded market for sure. Let's see what it can do over that stretch. If it comes even close to this 5-Day that would be very solid.
  22. I remember 1989 very well. "Little Mermaid" really got the Disney Renaissance rolling. The Big 4 from the Renaissance was always "Little Mermaid, BATB, Aladdin and LK". Well for the remakes, "Aladdin" made a billion. "BATB" made 1.2 Billion and "TLK" made 1.6 Billion. So though nothing is guaranteed. I feel "Little Mermaid" with a holiday Launch should be able to boost itself to a Billion. Now "Cinderella" made over 500 Million but "The Jungle Book" made over 900 Million. Disney really has something going with these live action remakes. Yes there's competition so we'll see how it does OW but again I feel at the very least hopefully can pass "Aladdin" numbers.
  23. Even though Fast 1 and 2 Fast both did very good numbers. "Tokyo Drift" was considered a box office let down at the time even though to me it was a smaller side film and we all thought it was a spin off before then incorporated into the main series. Anyways, Fast 4 got the franchise back to it's normal numbers and then "Fast 5" is when it really exploded to me. So 5, 6, 7, 8 ended up all did very solid numbers overall. "F9"had the Pandemic and still pulled over 700. "Hobbs and Shaw" did over 750 Worldwide. But it looking like "Fast 7" will remain the biggest one. "Fast 8" also did gangbusters looking back.
  24. Fair point. Here's all the opening Weekends for the Franchise: 1 Furious 7 $353,007,020 4,022 $147,187,040 4,004 Apr 3, 2015 Universal Pictures 2 Fast & Furious 6 $238,679,850 3,771 $97,375,245 3,658 May 24, 2013 Universal Pictures 3 The Fate of the Furious $226,008,385 4,329 $98,786,705 4,310 Apr 14, 2017 Universal Pictures 4 Fast Five $209,837,675 3,793 $86,198,765 3,644 Apr 29, 2011 Universal Pictures 5 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw $173,956,935 4,344 $60,038,950 4,253 Aug 2, 2019 Universal Pictures 6 F9: The Fast Saga $173,005,945 4,203 $70,043,165 4,179 Jun 25, 2021 Universal Pictures 7 Fast & Furious $155,064,265 3,674 $70,950,500 3,461 Apr 3, 2009 Universal Pictures 8 The Fast and the Furious $144,533,925 2,899 $40,089,015 2,628 Jun 22, 2001 Universal Pictures 9 2 Fast 2 Furious $127,154,901 3,418 $50,472,480 3,408 Jun 6, 2003 Universal Pictures 10 The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift $62,514,415 3,030 $23,973,840 3,027 Jun 16, 2006 Universal Pictures I guess I wasn't expecting it to reach "Fast 6, 7 or 8" levels. But like I said, Definitely over "Hobbs and Shaw" and "F9". So I was hoping for more like 80-85 Million. Somewhere around I guess "Fast 5" would have been nice. That shouldn't have been that hard right? I guess it's much more competition this time around domestically.
  25. "Hobbs and Shaw" and "Fast 9" both did over 700 WW so that should be the floor for "Fast X". I want to be more optimistic but it seems they may have spent to much budget wise on "Fast X". When I saw that 340 number I figured it was for Fast X part 1 and 2 but when I saw it was just for part 1 I was like What? I'm sorry but that's damn near 400 Million when only Two Fast Films even crossed a Billion. It's a huge franchise no doubt but that's a lot to break even. They should probably scale the budget down for Fast X part 2. Also If this comes under "John Wick 4" that would be surprising for me. "John Wick 4" is R-rated, this is PG13 and a way bigger fanbase domestically and internationally. But in the end overseas may saved the day. They always do gangbusters internationally. But Summer Box office is definitely back in full effect for the first time in years it feels like. We've got some heavy hitters dropping every week for the next 8 weeks. Let's see who rises to the top. Lastly, I wasn't too hot on "GOTG 3" opening but it has surprised me with these holds domestically. It is catching up to "Thor 4" and surpassed "AM3" so that's much better than when it started. Let's see how it holds against "Fast X".
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