Juby
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Posts posted by Juby
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30 minutes ago, TomThomas said:
Man Of Steel had everything going for it and it didn't even cross 700 mln.
This was caused by huge competition in the summer of 2013. And remember, with today's ATP MoS would have around $390m domestic and +$800m ww = similiar level to The Batman's numbers (Matt Reeve's film also could have grossed much more if not the strong advertising HBO Max premiere 45 days after theatrical release date).
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6 hours ago, Dominic Draper said:
Superman Legacy under 600M WW will be my guess.
I would say even less than that (under $500m WW).
The DC brand is now at the bottom. To make a successful film, they need to regain the trust of the audience. Shazam !!, The Flash, Blue Beetle and Aquaman 2 (rumors about its quality are not promising) will not do that. So, Superman: Legacy will be the first DCU film after 8 box office flops/bombs in a row, most of which were poorly received by GA. No one will want to pay for another DCU movie, even if it's a Superman movie with great reviews. No trust = no $$$. Especially, not after the circumstances of Henry Cavill's departure from the role and the controversial decisions of Zaslav/Gunn/Safran (Keaton's removal, Batgirl's cancelation, reboot but not complete reboot).
I think the only DC movies in the next three years that will be a box office success are Joker 2 and The Batman Part Two. DCU has had bad PR from the start and nothing has changed so far (and I think won't change by the end of the next year).
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4 hours ago, lilmac said:
If the weekend drops never changed from last weekend, here are the projected domestic totals:
Barbie - $583M (I know alot of folks have insanely high final projections for Barbie but I think it'll close lower than many think....$600M is very hard to achieve...not saying it won't make it to that milestone but it will be more difficult than many may have predicted even with summer weekdays)
Oppenheimer - $306M
Sound of Freedom - $182M
Mission Impossible 6 - $169M
Indy 5 - $173M
Barbie is 16.67% ahead of TDK after its 3rd weekend = around $622.2 million final dom. But Barbie is gaining more and more every day and will have weaker competition than TDK had in 2008. I think the target for Barbie is $630-660m.
On the other hand, Jurrasic World ($652.3m dom) is currently almost $41 million ahead of Barbie and had better weekends so far +also summer weekdays from now on and a big boost on its 12th weekend (LDW). Catching it won't be easy,
I'm convinced that Oppenheimer is heading for the $310-320m dom.
M:I-7 is the saddest box office story of the summer
Summer 2023 (Top10):
Barbie $645m
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $381m
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $359m
Oppenheimer $315m
The Little Mermaid $297.2m
Sound of Freedom $183m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $173.5m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One $166m
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $157.4m
Elemental $153.5m
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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:
Avatar movies are also animation then. CGI striving for hyper realism should not count as “animated films”
Avatar movies have a bit of live-action in them and performance-capture characters. The Lion King is 100% CGI. Disney's Dinosaur (2001) is less animated film than TLK, 2019 (real backgrounds, flora) and it is an animated movie.
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3 hours ago, Ororo Munroe said:
That says more about TGM especially with Barbie having the edge almost every week so far. Barbie needs to get to 600M first, which is not yet guaranteed. 😅 lol
Barbie is now 14.3% ahead of TDK and gaining everyday. I think $600m is pretty safe at this point, especially with August and September empty. JW's $653.4m will be a real challenge here - to do this, Barbie needs more than x4 multi, so far only one non-December release had over x4 multi* and it was TGM).
*among +$100m openers
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18 hours ago, Michael Gary Scott said:
I thought it was a great movie personally
Okay. For me, it was probably the worst film I've seen in cinema this year, next to the last Ant-Man (I went to the cinema 13 times this year - Fabelmans, Quantumania, Creed III, Scream VI, John Wick 4, Air, GotG3, Across the Spider-Verse, The Flash, Indy5, M:I-7, Oppie and Barbie). Probably the worst screening I've been to since JWD last year.
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I finally got to see Barbie and... wow. I can't remember the last time I was so embarrassed during a movie screening and wanted to leave the theater. The issues raised by the film are important and the message is right, but this is such an awkward and not fanny comedy
It's sad that this is the movie that breaks the last TDK and HP7.2 records to become the new WB king. I don't get the hype and I don't get the legs. In a perfect world, M:I-7 crushes it at the box office.
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16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:
Where do people see Barbie after this coming weekend? 460M DOM total? Can it hold well enough for a 60M+ weekend DOM?
I think WB might be satisfied with Barbie results and will push theater owners to give more screens to the Meg2 and Blue Beetle next two weekends. I'm thinking about $55m 3rd weekend and $35m 4th weekend for $650m dom at the moment.
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15 hours ago, Mango said:
Endgame was probably on a record number of screens as well. Over 4,600 theaters, I’d imagine at least 20,000 screens domestically. It’s $357m number isn’t as impossible to imagine when you factor in the screen count. TDK was on like 9,000 or so and Spider-Man 3 around 10-11,000. Add on the development of premium screens, IMAX, and 3D.
TDK was on ~9,200 screens (94 of them were IMAX).
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Damn. So far, Barbie has been ahead of TDK throught previews (TDK had record-breaking $18,489,000 but only from 3,040 theaters from the 00:01 shows -- NOT from 3:00 and 6:00 screenings according to Variety! -- Barbie previews have started Thursday at 3 p.m. and had some on Wednesday), Saturday and Sunday were both very close, but on Monday and especially Tuesday (if +$25 million is true) Barbie clearly wins over Batman.
Of course, the average ticket price for TDK was around $8 (Mojo had $7,08 for all movies on July 2008, but Batman got $6,214,061 from 94 IMAXs this weekend) and Barbie was $12.65, but still remarkable numbers.
Can you imagine TDK would be open to about $250-280 million today? With the current number of IMAX auditoriums (+400? five times more than it was in 2008?), Dolby theaters, ScreenX and Thursday previews even +$300 million wouldn't surprise me. TDK run was epic!!
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56 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
Yeah, anything over 600 would be a great result. 800+ seems impossible.
Oppenheimer has bigger OW than Inception in majority of the markets, and Incpetion final ourcome was $825m ww. With great legs (which wouldn't be anything unusual for a Nolan film: BB had x4.21 multi -Wed opening-, TDK x3.38 multi, Interstellar x3,96, and Inception x4.66!!). Only domestic could be as high as $330m, $470m from the rest of the markets wouldn't be that hard to achieve with current WOM.
Those Monday numbers are insane. As a huge Batman fan, I thought only another Batman film can take down the Batma... I mean TDK as the highest grossing WB film domestic ever, but Barbie is getting bigger and bigger every day. +$540m final dom is looking really good at the moment.
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It's definitely too early to talk about $600 million for Barbie, Imho. If the movie OW is $162m as Deadline report than with similiar legs to TDK 15 years ago, it would finish with around $545 million. Audience scores on RT and on IMDb are not as overwhelming as Batman's. For now, $500m is the target.
Oppenheimer with $82.4m OW = even $325 million domestic is possible. I would say $275-325m for now.
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Oppenheimer's opening weekend in Poland will be massive, easily over Barbie. Presales are insane for this type of movie. IMAXes are full the whole weekend.
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Holy shit! What a numbers... Is $300m weekend for all movies possible?
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On 6/14/2022 at 10:33 AM, Juby said:
Isn't it this year?
My first raw forecast for 2023:
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 - $450m
Indiana Jones 5 - $375m ($300-400m range)
The Marvels - $300m
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $290m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - $270m
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $250m
The Flash - $250m
Dune: Part Two - $215m
John Wick: Chapter 4 - $200m
Wonka - $180m
Oppenheimer - $175m
Fast X = $165m
Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m
Blue Beetle = $150m
I know there'll be also TLM, Mario film, Sony-verse movies, and some Disney and Pixar animations, but I don't have anything for them yet. I'll update my list at the end of December.
Updated:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie - $574m
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 -
$450m$360mIndiana Jones 5 -
$375m($300-400m range) $170m
The Marvels -
$300m$210m (now I don't believe it will be bigger "hit" than Ant-Man)Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom -
$290m$205mMission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1 - $280m ($250-310m range)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse -
$270m$390mAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania -
$250m$214.5m (I was pretty close with this one)The Flash -
$250m$109m
Dune: Part Two - $215m
John Wick: Chapter 4 -
$200m$187m (also close)Wonka - $180m
Oppenheimer - $175m
Fast X =
$165m$147m (I told'ya)Transformers: Rise of the Beats - $150m (maybe?)
Blue Beetle =
$150m$50m (it won't beat Shazam!!)A very surprising year so far.
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The last six DCU films:
Birds of Prey... - box office flop (even without covid breakout it would lose money)
Wonder Woman 1984 - flop (during covid, but it still would have been a disappointment of the year after it's mixed reception among the fans and critics)
The Suicide Squad - bomb (even without HBO max premiere on day one it wouldn't be a hit)
Black Adam - bomb!
Shazam! Fury of the Gods - BOMB!!
The Flash - bomb!!!
It must be some kind of record. I can't think of any other Hollywood franchise that has had as many box office failures in a row as DCU. Blue Beetle will be its 7th, here we go...
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2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
We have a new leader. The question is, Will we see a bigger film this year?
I doubt that. After first six days, Mario is looking to finish with R1/TDK/TLK'19 numbers domestically ($525-550m). I don't think there anything that can top that this year. Maybe M:I-7 will explode similiar to TGM?
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On 12/28/2022 at 2:33 PM, Juby said:
Okay, alright. Here is my 2023 forecast:
1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
domestic: $450 million / overseas: $690 million / worldwide: $1.14 billion2. The Little Mermaid (2023)
domestic: $350 million / overseas: $650 million / worldwide: $1 billion3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
domestic: $290 million / overseas: $670 million / worldwide: $960 million4. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part 1
domestic: $295 million / overseas: $605 million / worldwide: $900 million5. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3
domestic: $405 million / overseas: $425 million / worldwide: $830 million6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
domestic: $265 million / overseas: $410 million / worldwide: $675 million <--- LOL
7. The Marvels
domestic: $270 million / overseas: $400 million / worldwide: $670 million8. Dune: Part Two
domestic: $225 million / overseas: $440 million / worldwide: $665 million9. Fast X
domestic: $160 million / overseas: $500 million / worldwide: $660 million10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
domestic: $250 million / overseas: $305 million / worldwide: $555 millionAt 11th I've got Oppenheimer with similiar numbers to Dunkirk in 2017. I've no idea how to predict Mario Bros. or Elementals because these are not good times for an animated films. My 1st is Indy, I wrote about him a few words some time ago:
My 2nd is Mermaid which I believe have a potential to score big (maybe $1b ww? maybe $350-400m dom?), maybe as big as live-action The Jungle Book and Aladdin. The 3rd I believe will be Aquaman with some drops compared to the first one (but still big thanks to his new December release date). The 4th will be the new M:I (fingers crossed!), the 5th GotG3 (after this year I don't think it will be bigger domestic than Doctor Strange 2 and much bigger than Thor: Love and Thunder OS), at 6th I have the new Ant-Man (some increases from Ant-Man and the Wasp), 7th The Marvels (domestic drop similiar to the first film as Wakanda Forever has to the first Black Panther, overseas - a little bit more than Wakanda because the first Captain Marvel film was bigger OS than the first BP) later I got Dune 2 which should benefit after all the Oscars for the first film and no HBO Max release at the day 1 (probably after +60 days in this case), 9th will be F10 with another drop in this too-long franchise, and the last one on my list is the new Spider-Man from Sony (it might've been even bigger if not full-packed summer). I don't see any big surprises next year (like TGM this year or NWH in 2021) and I don't think there'll be any big hit from China in 2023 (+$600m). Barbie, John Wick 4, Shazam !!, TF6 and Blue Beetle - all of'em I see in $400m ww range.
And what about The Flash You may ask? Until Warner drop some trailer. . .
It might be a huge hit next summer or be a spectacular bomb. I don't know yet.
Damn, Mario did break out
It should easily tops $450m domestic and $1.15b worldwide as a #1 movie dom and ww this year. I'll update my Top10 predictions before the summer season begins.
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Eternals numbers for this won't surprise me.
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On 3/25/2023 at 12:23 AM, Halba said:
Top 7 non superhero action movies ever in history of hollywood
Mad Max Fury Road
Terminator 2
Die Hard
Top Gun Maverick
John Wick 4
Matrix 1
MI: Fallout
What abour the first Predator? Speed? The Bourne Ultimatum? Casino Royale?
I've seen it last Wednesday. 6/10 - the worst JW for me. It's more of the same, but with worse script and more indestructible main hero (John was hitted by the car couple of times, he jumps from the 3rd floor and he doesn't have even smallest wound, while in JW 1-3 he was injured multiple times, in JW3 he was stubbed in the very first fight scene in NY Library). Cinematography and choreagraphy was great, but nothing better than already amazing in JW2-JW3.
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On 3/1/2023 at 8:20 PM, Maggie said:
The numbers did their predictions for the top movies of 2023
The worst box office prediction strikes back!
The Marvels would be lucky to beat Ant-Man's 3 numbers, M:I-7 is def too low as many other titles.
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Filming of the sequel will start in November 2023 in Warner Bros. Levensden Studios.
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$677.5m DOM + $1635m OS ~ $2.312b WW finish.
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It's sad that this is the movie that breaks the last TDK and HP7.2 records to become the new WB king. I don't get the hype and I don't get the legs. In a perfect world, M:I-7 crushes it at the box office.
It should easily tops $450m domestic and $1.15b worldwide as a #1 movie dom and ww this year. I'll update my Top10 predictions before the summer season begins.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (yes that's the subtitle) | May 24, 2024 | Anya Taylor-Joy is Furiosa + Chris Hemsworth
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Idiotic subtitle. Why couldn't it just be Furiosa?