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Juby

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  1. $800m OS by Thursday? $925m OS by January 1st? $1.15b OS by January 8th? Is $1.5b OS possible? Shame China didn't explode because of covid situation there. And I don't get it what is happening in Japan, but the rest of the markets is doing amazing job for this film. In alternative universe with no covid and no war, this would have clearly got a shot for the biggest OS gross of all time. For today, #4 best must be enough.
  2. I think we have to wait at least till January 15th to predict the film's final gross. We don't know yet how it will behave next weekend (maybe small <10% drop?) and the weekend after that (is January 6th a Holiday in U.S.? Here in EU it is)? Probably the next "bigger drop" (more than 30%) A2 will have during its 5th weekend, but than it still have 3 whole weeks for itself in cinemas and won't lose PLFs screens till Feb 10th (Titanic's re-release) and won't have any real competition till Ant-Man on its 9th weekend! For now, The Way of Water is still behind Rogue One, but I wouldn't be surprised if the long legs will carrie it over Top Gun: Maverick domestic gross. It might be the leader for 8 weekends straight! The next two weekends OS are going to be massive, I think, probably +$125m both. $1.1B OS by the Jan 8th?
  3. Okay, alright. After today's news I have to say something. . . I am a huge Batman fan since... I don't know, 1997-1998 (when I was 5)? I'm also big fan of Superman (my 2nd favourite superhero of all time) and DC in general. After awful BvS, even worse SS and extremely overrated Wonder Woman (yes, I don't like Jenkis' film) I decided to go to see Justice League in 2017 only for Henry (<3 forever) and don't go to see any other DCU movie in theaters or buy them on Blu-ray = not giving Warner even a penny, until I will see a good DCU film. Since 2017 I've been in cinema only on three DC films (Teen Titans GO! To the Movies, Joker and The Batman) because there are no part of DCU. Since 2019 I've been considering breaking my rule of not paying for DCU films for Michael Keaton - I'm a huge fan of him ofc, so I want to see him for the first (and probably) only time on the big screen in The Flash. But after today I'm giving up. Return of Henry Cavill was the greatest news of this fall for me, I was so happy that after so many years he finally returned as Man of Steel adn this whole story "is he back, or is he not?" is over. But no, he's not Superman anymore, now it's over. And why? Because he don't want to? Becasue he wanted to much $$? Becasue he's too old to be Superman (nope, he's 39)? No, because new bosses want someone else even though fans were so happy when he annouced his return and Black Adam was "a thing" only because of its post-credit scene with Henry. James Gunn wants new Superman, younger Superman (again! which we see many times before) and he fired Henry. I don't know James Gunn's and Peter Safran's big plan for DCU, but You know what - after all the leaks from this and previous week and after this decision - I don't care. I stop giving another chances to DCU. Bad PR + not listening the fans + one terrible decision too much. Now, I have only one thing to say to them - f**k You, James Gunn, f**k You Peter Safran, and f**k You, future DCU. I'm not waiting for any of DCU films and Warner won't see me/my money until Henry's back as Superman. Thank You. #fireJamesGunn&PeterSafran #bringHenryCavillBack
  4. So, was it re-realeaee or not? According to the-numbers it was and still is in theaters: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Top-Gun-Maverick-(2020)#tab=box-office Mojo has some bs numbers (re-release was on Dec 2nd and they have it on Nov 4th-6th and later since Dec 5th). https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2500036097/?ref_=bo_gr_rls
  5. After Deadline's and Charlie's forecasts I'm thinking about $215m OW domestic + at least $400m overseas this weekend (Dec 14th-18th). Imagine if the covid situation in China was different (they have to stop giving a f**k about it, like the rest of the world) and there was no WorldCup finals this weekend, this would have definitely beat Infinity War's worldwide opening as the 2nd biggest ever with $700-800m. The same with final gross. Without covid restrictions in China and war in Ukraine, Avatar 2 would have finish with over $3b easily.
  6. My prediction from November 18th - opening weekend: $215.8m / domestic: $870m But now I see it even higher (better legs).
  7. Dec 10th was 74.4% and keep growing On Thursday there should be over 80% open.
  8. https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253150830-2022-23-market-forecast-highly-seasonal-with-a-chance-of-Summer-hits L O L 🤣 This guy is unbelievable. GotG3 with only $340m even though the first one adjusted in 2023 will be around $430m and the sequel close to $490m? Even the-worst-Thor-movie this year was over $340m. The Marvels at $330m without "Endgame boost" (not gonna happen). Indy with only $300m?!! ($400m seems the floor) No M:I-7? No other $300-million grosser? Complete bs. Wakanda Forever will be over $409m domestic before the Christmas and $390m for Avatar sequel (in 2022) is just huge underestimation.
  9. https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-blumhouses-m3gan-tracking-for-a-solid-2023-lead-off-plus-the-latest-avatar-the-way-of-water-projections/ Nice bump for Avatar
  10. Very bad trailer. No human characters, no story/plot, just Transformers doing transformations but with worse CGI and cinematography than 15 years ago in Bay's film. I don't think it would be better and gross more than Tf5.
  11. Wow, great trailer, good title and cgi-young-Indy, and surprisingly great teaser poster (no Drew Struzan though). I checked all the previous Indiana Jones adjusted gross: Raiders of the Lost Ark --> $209.56m (only original run) / Average Ticket Price in 1982 (when this run was over) = $2.94 ~ about $784.07m adjusted (ATP in 2022 is $11 according to google) The Temple of Doom --> $179.87m / ATP in 1984 = $3.36 ~ about $588.86m adjusted (-24,9%) The Last Crusade --> $197.17m / ATP in 1989 = $3.97 ~ about $546.31m adjusted (-7,22%) The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull --> $317.1m / ATP in 2008 = $7.18 ~ about $485.8m adjusted (-11.08%) With the biggest of these drops (-24.9%) the 5th film should finish with around $365m dom, with the smallest -7.22% drop it would be over $450m. Of course I didn't take into account PLF formats, 3D, IMAXes, 4DX, etc. so the true ATP in July 2023 would be likely over $13. So yeah, this would be big. I thing $450m is the bare minimum for Indy 5 next year.
  12. The previous one was released 2 months before Inifnity War - You have to go to cinema if You want to see all the MCU flicks before the big finale. This one is before nothing and people know it will be on Disney+ probably on January.
  13. Okay. So lets use typical %% gross for this film. Studio will get around 55% of domestic tickets sale (will finish with max. $170m) = $93.5m +maybe 40% from overseas markets (will winish with max. $230m) = $92m = $185.5m total maximum Production budget was $195-200m + probably over $100m for P&A = around $300m. I don't know how great licenses/ tv rights/ 4K/Blu-ray/DVD sale BA needs to break even, but it seems barely possible to me.
  14. Terminator Genisys was a flop with $155m production budget and $440.6m worldwide gross (Jason Clark says it was $50-60m short to greenlight the next installment). Black Adam with $195-200m budget and bigger marketing will finish its run under $400 million ww, it's deffinetly a flop.
  15. Avatar adjusted would be $1.02-1.06b. -25% for its sequel, even in the worst case scenario, would be $765m. The first Avatar opened with $77 million in 3,452 theaters with average ticket price $7.89 in Dec 2009 (probably around $10 for this particular film) and huge winter problems on eastern coast during the weekend. The Way of Water will be realeased in at least 4,200 theaters and the average ticket price is around $11 according to google (for this film is should be close to $14). Predicting $135m OW is just laughable, that would be like the same admission as the original, but this is a SEQUEL to the biggest movie of all time for many years, not original project. C'mon! $475m would have been the biggest admission drop for the sequel of the biggest movie of the year (2009) in 33 years (since Back to the Future: Part II and Ghostbusters II). That's not gonna happen. Pro clearly have no idea how to predict this film until presales starts. $154 million OW (OWx2 of the first film) and $600 million domestic (January is empty, no competition until Ant-Man 3) is the bare mininum for Avatar 2.
  16. https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-james-camerons-avatar-the-way-of-water/ 4 weeks before the realese date and they have $245m range in their forecast? That's not forecast at all. My early prediction: opening weekend $215.8m domestic $870m
  17. The Dark Knight is an amazing movie, but for me it will never be the #1 among superhero movies (it has some noticeable plotwholes and conveniences in its script and I still can't forigive Nolan for cutting this scene where Batman and Reachel are on a cab - the Joker should be running away from Wayne's party there!). Shame You didn't re-watch Batman Begins - for me by far the best superhero movie of all time (or Paul Verhoeven's RoboCop - but it's not based on comics, just slightly inspired by Frank Miller's TDKR and Dredd character). It wasn't as successful as its sequels beacause it was just "another sh origin story" (after Superman: The Movie, Spider-Man, Daredevil, Hulk, The Mask of Zorro, etc.), villains in BB are not as strong as the Joker/Two-Face and Bane, and the editing of some dramatic scenes was not good (fight scenes, Wayne's murderer), but the script/plot is close to perfect and the mood of Gotham / Batman's theatricality is by far the best in this one. +my favourite Batman's suit. WF - $181.3m. I think my $450m prediction is not a hard target now, even $500m is achiavable after such opening.
  18. Non of them^ were sequels to the most successful movie of all time after 13 years of waiting. Avatar sequel is a different (its own) story. ATP is much higher now than it was 13 years ago, in the case of above sequels it was only 3-4 year gap. Similiar drop for Avatar2 will still put it well over $700m DOM.
  19. https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252940830-2022-23-market-prediction-Smile-Ticket-to-Paradise-and-Black-Panther-help-boost-end-of-year-forecast
  20. That won't be an increace at all. Average ticket price for Fallout in 2018 was probably around $10, for DR1 will be close to $13. Even the same admission should put the next instalment at around $285m.
  21. No Mission: Impossible 7 after great reception of the last one and TGM success? Not even $251m DOM (= less admission than 5 out of 6 films so far)? I think You're wrong. 105/245 for Mission: Impossible? What?! These movies always have great legs, these are X3: The Last Stand numbers. Blue Beetle at $245m while Black Adam (also DC origin story, but with huge star - Dwayne Johnson) will be lucky to finish with $170m...
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