Cmasterclay

Movies like the Fall Guy (semi-original rom coms with no spectacle genre leanings) need a prime Will Smith or Cruise to open them up, not Ryan Gosling, who has been a successful draw only in films appealing largely to women (not a slight!) I get that this is trying to advertise itself as a romantic film, but it's a summer action movie from the director of John Wick. It's an action movie. You would need a 1990s level megastar to open this shit up to 50m. I think Bullet Train + a mild review and release date bump was always my range, and as long as it gets above 32m OW, it's in that range. Now, if it drops below 30? Then even I will say.....that fucking blows for it.

I can't believe that after three years of me screaming bloody murder about the state of the box office, everyone came around to my position because The Fall Guy is going to open the same as Bullet Train.

Two things are true. Even if Challengers or Fall Guy or Horizon have nice pleasant breakouts, or something like IO2 or Deadpool overperforms, this year is going to be down significantly to 2023 by the end of August. It's just a weaker at the top AND shallower slate. There's just no real way to get around this. Even if everything kind of overperforms current expectations, it's gonna be choppy seas this summer. But here's the thing......I think fall and holiday look so insanely strong compared to last year that this year could still almost catch it despite being a billion in the hole by the end of summer. I can honestly see SIX different films outgrossing Wonka, the highest film of last year's corridor, and up to 10 outgrossing Hunger Games, the next biggest narrative film last year. Barring some more delays or crazy election impacts, I think people are really underselling how insanely stacked this fall and holiday corridor is compared to last year, and frankly even compared to most regular years. I can see 9 movies making over 150m, and 12-15 plausibly making over 100m. And I'm the resident cynic! I'm as optimistic about fall as I am pessimistic about summer. So bear with me.

Probably just enough combined volume in the three releases to keep this weekend from being a total disaster.

Never saw any reason why Fall Guy would do over 50 or 60 like some predictions - a slightly better reviewed and marketed Bullet Train seemed like such a natural comp it seemed unfair to even take it, and that would be about 35/115 or 120.

She's part of what I call the "grift drift" - when normal liberals realize they can make money by being online right wing agitators.

I may not have loved Civil War, but I've had debates both on here and with two friends who loved it, and it's been a really interesting conversation. It's a thought provoking film. Much better than debating whether Avatar was popular for the 1,000 time.

I agreed about the direction, Garland obviously directs the shit out of it. Not sure I felt that about the acting tbh, was left a little cold by alot of the choices. Henderson was amazing though, as was Plemons.

I am glad you enjoyed it. I did not think it had anything to say about those things at all. I thought that bereft of any stakes or reflection on how monumental this would be, it felt like 1000 other post-apocalyptic movies. It felt more like 28 Days Later than any real reflection on what war would be like on our shores. And trust me - I LOVED that reviews were saying that was the angle. I wanted to see that story told - of how far a war could really go here in America. But it's so bereft of anything recognizably American - no people speaking about their lives, no reconciliation on how this event is felt, nobody really reacting to the war - that I feel the film genuinely failed to tell the story you are saying in your post. This place could have taken place in any developed country and been the same movie and failed to say the same thing. Like I said, I respect your opinion and also am very glad it is making money!

Oh I certainly agree with all this, I just worry it's about to get stuck in a weird critical and audience pile on of people calling it a "slog" or what have you. Just a weird gut feeling, especially given how early we got positive word on the last three. If it's actually good, I think it wins the month.

In June! So higher than Flash, Transformers, Indy. I'm lower on Fall Guy and Furiosa than most of the boards....maybe if Apes is well reviewed? I think there's a Garfield audience.

The highest grossing May film is going to finish about 125m behind The Little Mermaid domestic, so yeah, gonna be a bleak month relative to last year - a bit deeper but nothing within miles of Guardians or TLM. Think Furiosa gonna outright flop, Fall Guy and Apes both in 120m domestic range, Garfield wins the month. June I'm more optimistic on - IO2 should be good, and I actually think Bad Boys outgrosses any of last year's non Spider-Verse release. Pretty high on A Quiet Place and The Watchers too, actually. Plus a few adult releases like Horizon, Kind of Kindness, Bikeriders. So it's May that looks brutal to me.

To be clear, I've seen much WORSE films than this in the past year - it's very well shot and directed and extremely watchable because of it - but this movie, as you said, pissed me the fuck off, so I broke out a rare F grade when I usually give technical pieces of shit like Madame Web a D.

I still think it was harsh for people to judge the film based on alliances and ideology not reflecting 2024 America. I didn't need it to take explicit sides on today's world. The problem is that the film has NOTHING to say about America at all at any point in our history - not our culture, our commerce, our values, nothing. The film might as well have taken place on Jupiter for all the weight this war happening in America is given. What's the big whoop of a Civil War in America if nobody comments on what any of this could mean?

In a twist worthy of M. Night Shyamalan, after all these years of begging for an original hit, and all these months defending Civil War sight unseen.....I absolutely fucking hated it. F-. Glad it is making money and sure hope more original movies with this scope and marketing get made, though!! Maybe they won't be craven, weightless pieces of shit like this was.

Monkey Man and Omen prime examples of how fast the fall off is nowadays if you don't catch the zeitgeist - legs are a more all or nothing proposition than ever, and audiences just don't have a reason to see those films in theaters once they flop unless they get award noms. Shame. Excellent number for Civil War - a mini Challengers breakout combined with that would be proof of quality+concept still carrying some real weight, albeit less often.

Usually not a fan of civil war breaking out, but in this case I agree.

If you really think about, the Civil War has been a nostalgic toy commercial for a large swath of the country for 150 years.

I think Tree of Life is an apt comparison for this, not in terms of the content of the film but in terms of everything else - divisive, non-commercial film from a legendary director making his huge comeback with a Cannes debut. You know that a few people are certainly going to consider this an all time masterpiece, and a few people will find it a total debacle, but history I think ultimately ends up kind to it like it has been kind to Tree of Life.

Pretty damn good Cannes lineup considering all the worry over strikes, though that does seem to apply more to the fall fests than Cannes. https://variety.com/2024/film/global/cannes-film-festival-2024-lineup-1235966528/

Saw this meme from a non-movie friend on social media, big hit incoming!!

As someone who has two degrees in political journalism (my own Sneider esque self promotion), I should not be stunned by anyone being a source shitty weird irrelevant person for inexplicable reasons. Even with that said, the fact that people sometimes do give good information to Jeff Sneider is a real mindblower and frankly an indictment on Hollywood itself.

I heard the movie is movie is simply Okja level weird and offputting but by no means bad. Not a binary, black and white thing why they made this release choice.

This is Starrcade 1997 level booking.

Sasha Stone is a total right wing nutbag and yet another of about 10000 examples of how Hollywood not only tolerates but elevates conservatives way more than the narrative claims.