Cmasterclay

Guys that number DAR posted is the original Spider-Man numbers I don't think we should debate it as a legit prediction lol. It's not gonna perform like it's 2002 (or Wonder Woman).

Whether presales are necessary or not is irrelevant anyway. We have data from presales for superhero movies released one month and two months ago. Presale habits have not changed since then. They're valid comparisons.

I actually can see it being the kind of movie that underperforms in D.C. - the theaters I track there probably have the most "liberal" audience of any few theaters in the entire country, so WW might have had an angle there. But South Florida matches NYC's demographics closer than anywhere in America so I don't get that one. Miami actually usually matches Atlanta the closest in terms of patterns so I'll check the A later. It's at 45 percent of Guardians 2 according to Grim, numbers backed up by what I'm seeing. In my areas, the sales are pretty much exactly where Fantastic Beasts was. Not exactly thrilling. But I guess the question is this: Does it perform like an origin story that's the first in a new franchise, ala Doctor Strange or Ant-Man? Or does it perform like an established sequel that has a relatively strong IM, like The Winter Soldier or Guardians 2? If it's the former, I see about 105. If it's the latter, I think it does about TASM2 numbers this weekend.

I'm of the opinion that this should be outselling WW in presales given the much larger fan base and established nature of the character. It's Spider-Man - and Iron Man! But there's another school of thought that says what you just did, so we shall see.

Man, SMH is just not selling well in the areas I track (North Miami area and D.C.) in relative terms. It's at about half of Wonder Woman in both areas at reserved seats, and this is despite having more showings in South Florida at the time. I've been skeptical about the buzz for this for awhile, but it could be that buzz in the two areas where I have alot of seeds is just inexplicably lower than the rest of the country. But even my many, many NYC friends are ehhhhh compared to something like Wondy or Suicide Squad. I don't know why sales would be so much lower in comparison to WW in South Florida and D.C. if that wasn't also the case elsewhere. It's at 175/380 at my two theaters for tonight, whereas Wonder Woman was at 280/350. D.C., the count is even lower (I lost my WW exact figure). I'm thinking 95m still.

Looks like we're getting the Tennis Cinematic Universe.

This looks like some Jonah Hex/RIPD type shit.

Yea I don't think Trump supporters were about to rush out and lift Black Panther to new heights no matter what. I'm pretty sure Bernie Sanders supporters didn't rush out and see American Sniper, either. Better to maximize support among your target audience. It'll be huge.

@Gopher is totally right in that if you fill in Minions for Shrek 3, this has followed that series' progression exactly. Kids grow up fast, and fresh things suddenly become lame and lose their audience.

One thing about the Beguiled (very minor, irrelevant spoiler): There's absolutely no indication until halfway through the movie that Colin Farrell's character is supposed to be Irish. Until that point, I thought it was just a W.O.A.T American accent attempt.

I hope SMH does good, btw. Tom Holland enrolled in classes at one of my best friend's old high school in the Bronx. Was in classes with her little brother and everything. Nice guy, apparently. I'm rooting for it based on this dumb personal reason alone.

I guess we'll just have to disagree on the first point - I think a Spider-Man movie should be outperforming WW in presales if it is going to outperform it on opening weekend. As for the IM, this isn't Ant-Man or Dr. Strange. This is freakin Spider-Man, opening in the heart of the summer. It's not gonna have as good an IM as Wondy or those movies. If it matches WW on opening day and then has the same IM as Winter Soldier, which had far less of a rush factor, it does 98. That's a good number. If it matches Guardians 1, it does 95, which is what I'm predicting. If it is going to out-open WW, which it seems you are predicting, it needs a bigger opening day. Something like 42m.

Wonder Woman had one of the best IMs in superhero history and unbelievable legs.It wasn't a rush event and there's no way SMH matches that. The reason that the rush factor appeared so high on the other ones was that reception was middling to bad and it killed legs.

That's a lil better. Based on pace, they should probably be around even by Tuesday then?

So WW on the Tuesday before release was 1m higher than Spider-Man the Friday before release, if I'm reading this correctly?

That makes total sense. Presales are built by pre-existing fanbases and rush audiences, not the casuals.

This, pretty much. I'm saying that if SMH were to do better than WW, it should be doing better in presales. It doesn't have the kind of buzz with general audiences IMO that it does with the fans who buy presales. WW had more general audience hype, so if Spider-Man is to do better than WW, it should be doing better than it in presales. Spider-Man should have more of a rush factor. It should be getting more sales from comic book fans, because non-comic fans aren't as hyped (not that they aren't hyped at all, of course.)

No offense CJ but this actually left me way more confused

I'm saying that casual audiences - the type that don't buy presales - are more skeptical, so if this was really primed for a breakout it should be consolidating support among fans. But it's not even at 50 percent of GOTG2. Also, I never said it had no hype and folks aren't looking forward to it. Come on. I said that people are more skeptical about another Spider-Man reboot than general consensus here indicates.

The latest presales data from Grim says it is 1m below WW at the same point, so that's what I'm going on. I think this should have higher presales than WW.

Yea whatever you say man.

Right, which did 103 OW. I think that Spider-Man should be doing alot better in presales than that, though. So if it were to match it in presales, and then underperform a little on actual opening weekend, that puts it to like 90-95 OW. Most people seem to be predicting 110+. Plus, Grim mentioned that it's now 1m below WW at the same point.

I'm feeling a Spider-Man Homecoming underperformance btw (relative to expectations and yada yada). I've seen a ton of people in my feeds posting stuff like "They're making another Spider-Man??" and "Why are we getting another Spider-Man instead of X?" (usually a female led superhero like Catwoman or Captain Marvel, a valid complaint tbh). There's alot more of that bemused pessimism than hype hype hype among a large contingent of the general audience. Most people don't understand the dynamics of how this is now part of the MCU or caught on to the good reception yet. To them, it's just another freakin Spider-Man. Plus, presale data is ehhhhhh, it's lower than WW and I don't really see why this would have a better presales to opening ratio than that. I'm thinking around TASM 2 opening but with far better legs.

The Beguiled is a movie that exists. Well-shot, very well-acted, but I didn't really see any point to it. It's an entertaining 90 minutes at the movie but it's kind of just there tbh.

This. I don't care about whether it makes a profit (unless it's an indie where it needs the money to sustain the studio) or foreign gross (never left the country, don't even know the first thing about exchange rates), I care about how domestic box office does in relation to reasonable potential. Weigh what it has going for it, what is has going against it, and think of a good range for what it can do. DM3 should have made at least 80m this weekend all things considered. I predicted 95m. That's my standard.