Cmasterclay

It Comes At Night and the Beguiled make for a good June, and I think All Eyez on Me and Wonder Woman should be fresh too. The Mummy is the one movie I think I'll see this summer with no regard for reviews, ala San Andreas. Cruise is always committed and I could go for a good monster movie. Should be alot better June and July than May in terms of BO, and August is loaded with quality. Spider-Man is on the cusp of going from a movie I'd see as long as it gets pretty good reviews to a movie that needs GREAT word for me to consider it. I just can't get interested at all.

Also, I know we're not supposed to talk about this because it's been beat to death, but those fucking eagles really do put a damper on the whole franchise. That shit is a deus ex machina that makes the internal logic of the whole franchise somewhat questionable. Straight up, why didn't they just them to Mordor? That always gets some long explanation about how the eagles are solitary creatures that shouldn't be taken advantage of or something, but that doesn't really explain away the problem, it just makes the damn eagles look like selfish assholes who don't give a shit about anyone. Those fucking eagles, man.

Here's the thing about biases: yes, I'm sure plenty of individual critics have biases against superhero movies or whatever. But if you look at the 300+ reviews for these movies, there's JUST as much bias in the opposite direction. Look at the Wonder Woman thread. I'm not saying it's gonna get bad reviews or anything (I hope it gets great reviews) but so many of these "RT critics" in that thread are from sites like DcVerse, ComicBookNerd.com, and other sites just like that. They're just as biased in the opposite direction. So they cancel out. Like Cal said, it's about sample sizes.

Right, but I disagree with that last point. Critics give their analysis without any of these ulterior motives or weird prejudices that people make up when their favorite movie doesn't get good reviews. They just do their job, and it's fine to disagree, but these personal insults and fantasies about them being "biased" against certain movies is toxic crap. People just can't handle their favorite franchise not being beloved and massive among everyone, and that goes for every franchise, so I'm not singling out. Sometimes non-franchise movies, too! It's so unbelievably fucking childish. There's real problems in the world, people shouldn't whine because critics were such big meanies to their newest obsession.

Franchises peak. And with Fast 8 dropping so hard, we can't even use that example anymore as a franchise that wouldn't stop peaking. You can find a second peak with a hiatus or a change, like TFA or JW or Skyfall, but it's impossible in my book for a franchise to generate massive, fresh buzz to attract casual curious audiences AND keep a hardcore fanbase, all while maintaining quality and provide enough big new stuff for it to feel fresh but not overstuffed. That's what happened to MJ, Pirates, Age of Ultron, even Spider-Man 2. The original Lord of the Rings trilogy is probably the only example of a franchise that just kept hitting it further every time, but that's a weird kinda example.

I love reading reviews from good critics. I just love reading smart analysis and opinion on movies from people that love movies and dedicate themselves to the history even if I completely and totally disagree. Sometimes I'll read Ehrlich or Rex Reed and barely "agree" with a word being said but they'll still provide some illuminating perspective or thought that makes me think about something in a different way. That's value to me.

There's this sensation on the internet where suddenly poorly received movies aren't actually flawed, they're actually misunderstood works of genius everyone would love if it wasn't for that RT score, so let's hang the critics! It's fine to like a movie that other people don't like. It's another to say that BvS is actually this generation's The Godfather and RT critics are just too out of touch to admit it.

There's photographic evidence, detailed police investigations, and eyewitness accounts saying that Johnny Depp is, indeed, a wife beater and abuser. Whatever you think of his movies, maybe let's just with the "maybe he's not actually a bad guy" stuff.

Bad numbers for both, but I'll say this: outside of Alien, it feels like most movies have found their strength on Saturday and Sunday this year. Even BATB and GOTG2, huge as they are, had mildly disappointing Fridays before mammoth Saturday and Sundays, despite being parts of franchises. Even frontloaded movies like John Wick 2 and Logan and 50 Shades did much better on Saturday than expected. Maybe moviegoing patterns are changing a bit, with less frontloaded mammoth Fridays for most movies and better weekend IMs. I have no empirical evidence, just something I've observed for a year or so. So maybe these movies do a lil better than expected today.

As said I have no idea how to read that number, considering pretty much no one knew it came out today/last night. I only learned last week! Why did they move it?

I gotta say, I can't watch TV or go anywhere online without seeing the Mummy. Alien and Pirates have been highly saturated, but this is blowing both of them out of the water in terms of sheer volume. Has massive amount of promotion, from Twitter to Snapchat to every commerical break during the playoffs. Easily the best campaign of the summer, at least in terms of putting it in front of eyeballs. I have no idea how this movie is going to do. At first I thought San Andreas numbers, then I saw so many people being negative and not reacting I dropped to like 35, but then tracking had it up in the high 40s and the campaign is everywhere. Cruise is still a draw, but he also puts people off. Also doubtful about quality. It's the only real super unpredictable movie of the summer to me. I can see anywhere from 25 to 60m OW. IDK. All I know is it's the one movie this summer my dad is excited about, so it could play well with older crowds who like monster movies/adventures. That's how I ended up underestimating Kong.

I tend to agree. My top five of the year goes SW, BATB, GOTG, WW, and then either Thor or DM3 (with Justice League and Spidey the next couple out).

The first trailer did well and it's followed the same pattern the last one did. That franchise is the adult alternative of the entire summer. If reviews are great like the last two it should do well.

Central Intelligence also had terrible presales and an embargo that broke super late, and it ended up being a well-reviewed hit. So I haven't given up on Baywatch yet. Yea it has a franchise name but honestly is anyone in the world treating that like a franchise movie instead of a Rock buddy comedy?

I've been fairly bearish on Pirates, but 65 million seems doable given tracking and solid reactions. Depp really hurts it but otherwise this franchise was bigger at its lowest point than X-Men ever was at its highest, for what that's worth. Also, marketing has been everywhere compared to X-Men. Apocalypse just had zero buzz, and I feel people are ready for another Pirates movie. I could see a solid breakout if Depp wasn't such a shitty toxic asshole in the lead. I think it does about 72 for the three day.

To me I just think that it's a very predictable summer outside of a couple of movies. We know exactly what kind of numbers big things like DM3 and Apes will do, and more middling things like Pirates, Cars, and Transformers have a very predictable range. Dunkirk and Valerian and stuff look good but they don't scream hits. GOTG and Alien fell exactly where I predicted they would and they did so for most people. The only movies with breakout/breakdown potential on either end are Wonder Woman, Spidey, Mummy, and Dark Tower, and at this point it looks like Wonder Woman is going to be the big breakout and Dark Tower is going to be the big flop. So really, Mummy and Spider-Man are the only two giving me any real trouble.

I'm not particularly bullish on Pirates or Baywatch but I think they will do better than the wretched Apocalypse/Alice combo from last year, and obviously Tomorrowland/Poltergeist. Will probably be the best Memorial Day for new releases since 2013.

I think that with BATB and Star Wars locked, and Thor/Justice League gaining traction, there's a not bad at all chance that only one movie from this summer makes it into the top five domestic for this year. However, I think Wonder Woman beats Justice League and Thor, and I think that on a good day Spider-Man can challenge both of those, too. It's not a great summer box office wise, but it has bigger stuff near the top than 2014 and is probably deeper than 2015 IMO which had some huge breakouts but also tons of misses. We'll see quality wise, though. 2014 was pretty bad at the box office but absolutely rocked quality wise, best summer in ages.

Wonderstruck is getting good enough reviews and all but nothing that screams Best Picture winner, and I agreed with Coolio that it had a good shot to win. At this point reviews look ehhhh for a nomination.

Begin Again: Here We Go Again!

If you had told me that the Gangster Squad guy was directing a Sony Venom spinoff, and then asked me if I would be interested in seeing it, my literal only answer would have been "If they cast Tom Hardy." So, guess I'm seeing this shit.

That midnight number is only okay to me, IMO. It did barely more than Prometheus despite #fiveextrahours, five years of inflation, and being a sequel with more limited appeal. Then again, Promethesus did have 3D and June. This is a very frontloaded franchise. Probably should do about 40m based on that number.

I've gone from 44m to 37m to 33m back to about 37m for Alien. Tough one to pin down.

I know we aren't supposed to speculate from rumors and stuff but apparently this shit is a disasterrrrrrrrr.