Cmasterclay

Oh I certainly agree with all this, I just worry it's about to get stuck in a weird critical and audience pile on of people calling it a "slog" or what have you. Just a weird gut feeling, especially given how early we got positive word on the last three. If it's actually good, I think it wins the month.

In June! So higher than Flash, Transformers, Indy. I'm lower on Fall Guy and Furiosa than most of the boards....maybe if Apes is well reviewed? I think there's a Garfield audience.

The highest grossing May film is going to finish about 125m behind The Little Mermaid domestic, so yeah, gonna be a bleak month relative to last year - a bit deeper but nothing within miles of Guardians or TLM. Think Furiosa gonna outright flop, Fall Guy and Apes both in 120m domestic range, Garfield wins the month. June I'm more optimistic on - IO2 should be good, and I actually think Bad Boys outgrosses any of last year's non Spider-Verse release. Pretty high on A Quiet Place and The Watchers too, actually. Plus a few adult releases like Horizon, Kind of Kindness, Bikeriders. So it's May that looks brutal to me.

To be clear, I've seen much WORSE films than this in the past year - it's very well shot and directed and extremely watchable because of it - but this movie, as you said, pissed me the fuck off, so I broke out a rare F grade when I usually give technical pieces of shit like Madame Web a D.

I still think it was harsh for people to judge the film based on alliances and ideology not reflecting 2024 America. I didn't need it to take explicit sides on today's world. The problem is that the film has NOTHING to say about America at all at any point in our history - not our culture, our commerce, our values, nothing. The film might as well have taken place on Jupiter for all the weight this war happening in America is given. What's the big whoop of a Civil War in America if nobody comments on what any of this could mean?

In a twist worthy of M. Night Shyamalan, after all these years of begging for an original hit, and all these months defending Civil War sight unseen.....I absolutely fucking hated it. F-. Glad it is making money and sure hope more original movies with this scope and marketing get made, though!! Maybe they won't be craven, weightless pieces of shit like this was.

Monkey Man and Omen prime examples of how fast the fall off is nowadays if you don't catch the zeitgeist - legs are a more all or nothing proposition than ever, and audiences just don't have a reason to see those films in theaters once they flop unless they get award noms. Shame. Excellent number for Civil War - a mini Challengers breakout combined with that would be proof of quality+concept still carrying some real weight, albeit less often.

Usually not a fan of civil war breaking out, but in this case I agree.

If you really think about, the Civil War has been a nostalgic toy commercial for a large swath of the country for 150 years.

I think Tree of Life is an apt comparison for this, not in terms of the content of the film but in terms of everything else - divisive, non-commercial film from a legendary director making his huge comeback with a Cannes debut. You know that a few people are certainly going to consider this an all time masterpiece, and a few people will find it a total debacle, but history I think ultimately ends up kind to it like it has been kind to Tree of Life.

Pretty damn good Cannes lineup considering all the worry over strikes, though that does seem to apply more to the fall fests than Cannes. https://variety.com/2024/film/global/cannes-film-festival-2024-lineup-1235966528/

Saw this meme from a non-movie friend on social media, big hit incoming!!

As someone who has two degrees in political journalism (my own Sneider esque self promotion), I should not be stunned by anyone being a source shitty weird irrelevant person for inexplicable reasons. Even with that said, the fact that people sometimes do give good information to Jeff Sneider is a real mindblower and frankly an indictment on Hollywood itself.

I heard the movie is movie is simply Okja level weird and offputting but by no means bad. Not a binary, black and white thing why they made this release choice.

This is Starrcade 1997 level booking.

Sasha Stone is a total right wing nutbag and yet another of about 10000 examples of how Hollywood not only tolerates but elevates conservatives way more than the narrative claims.

Not going to trust a bunch of suits in the trades to have any taste whatsoever on the artistic merits of this.

Quorum is really a choose your own adventure tool - I find it helpful, it's better for comparing among similar films than for comparing anything with remote name value to even the best marketed original, because any established IP always overindexes there bigly.

Civil War seems to be getting tripped up by people reading way too much into the alliances of the movie and trying to map it to 2024 instead of getting what seems to be the actual point of the movie. Discourse is very, very annoying already, and I work in politics for a living. Just watch the fucking movie for what it is! It's not a documentary about contemporary political alliances from everything I read - it has a different message.

I'm 30 now. Once you get into that new decade you're mega old. All my friends are married with kids. Making plans is fucking impossible. Everybody just wants to UberEats and watch Netflix between play dates. My parents took me to movies! All my friends went to movies as kids! What happened? Anyway, more than being actually old, I'm Box Office Theory old. I've posted since 2008!!

My instincts agree, but honestly most of the people I know who scoff at me going to the movie theaters are professional types with wife and kids that I work or volunteer with. The middle class, 30-60 year old professional crowd lives on Amazon and Netflix tbh. All my work colleagues are wait for streaming on everything, but my high school age niece and her little friends still like going to the movies for something to do. They're much more casual moviegoers than grownups now honestly.

Don't say that too loud around here!

The thing with Monkey Man is it felt like it had more buzz before SXSW if anything - I had two non-movie people ask me about the trailer and the views and online shares were insane. So I don't think we can chalk expectations up to SXSW hype - more online metrics hype.

What worries me about the Monkey Man number is how the presales were promising and it ended up crashing on walkups - Civil War looks okay right now but as keyser states it needs to accelerate or else it's heading for mid teens tops. Needs to perform much better over final week than Monkey Man did.

ADRENALINE.......IN MY SOUL.......SOMETHING SOMETHING CODY RHODES (I'm a huge wrestling fan and this has been the best build in at least 10 and likely 23 years for a Wrestlemania)