Cmasterclay

Uh, yea, that's not how people work, man. They aren't robots. Saturday afternoon, you go grocery shopping, play with the kids, shit like that. Saturday night, you might go out with your wife or your girlfriend to a movie usually. But tonight, they have another option, a once-in-a-decade thing for even casual sports fans. People don't work their schedules around movies like we do in the real world.

I posted this the other day, but I think us people on here at a box office site fundamentally sometimes don't understand how alot of people watch movies. For alot of people, if you miss it at the time you would normally watch it, you don't just go find another time to see it. People are busy. Most people set aside Saturday night to go see a movie with some buddies or a date with dinner. It's not a part of their souls like it is for us and here (and probably alot of the people we hang out with). It's just an activity you do on a Saturday night. And if it gets bumped because you're going to a fight party, maybe you don't watch it till next weekend. I'm not going to argue again that I think the fight audience is gonna be big enough to chop off one or two million tonight- I've made that clear- but using yourself, who has already seen a movie twice in the day it has been out, as an example for how casual people watch movies is just dead wrong.

I've been trying to convince people of this for three days. Don't get sucked into this argument, dude. Pointless

I predicted 212 million OW in the summer game, so I fucks with the 213 million number. Just as long as it finishes under 650 million domestic so I get to pick BKB's name and we're all gravy.

I really lowballed it, I think. People even cheered when Sandler popped up. Dude might have done some duds recently, but I still think the general public loves the guy in the right movie. Sometimes, the internet starts to become an echo chamber- and it hurts predictions.

I major in political communication, man. I argue with people I disagree with for a living.

Random but slightly relevant fact: People at my showing went fucking NUTS for the Pixels trailer last night. Bigger than Jurassic World and Ant-Man combined. I have no agenda in saying that- I don't think I even had it doing 100m in the baumer summer game- but after last night, I think that they might have something bigger than I thought with that concept.

DH2 broke the OD and OW record in 2011. Not too long.

No, I was just backing up Tele's point that lower multipliers for sequels are the common rule, and that TWS was the exception . I don't want anything to fail. I love big box office. I'm not arguing with you today, it's like arguing with a Ron Paul supporter. There's no point.

So are we calling MOS' opening weekend 116 or 128, for June record purposes? Because I really always thought those Wal-Mart numbers were kind of bullshit.

Huh? I'm not making excuses for anything. I'm saying that Avengers: AOU probably isn't going to have as strong of legs as TWS for a variety of reasons, and it won't have BETTER legs than TA like TWS did than the first CAP . There's a reason TWS did what it did- it's not common, it's a rarity. It's the exception, not the rule, like I just said. If every sequel had better legs than the first, then THAT would the rule.

There's a reason it's an exception, not the rule.

It's an entertaining popcorn blockbuster but it really falls apart the more I think about it. Kind of a mess, TBH. Most of the flaws that I had with it have been talked about already so I ain't gonna post a super long review, but I thought that alot of characters lacked any arc/motivation (Thor especially), the action was overedited and a bit Bayhem mind-numby, the final battle lacked punch, and Ultron, despite being a very interesting concept played well by Spader, was a total pussy who had his credibility as a villain undermined at every single turn. Also, Olsen and ATJ were absolutely atrocious, and the plot didn't make much sense. Excellent sense of humor and a strong team dynamic makes it fun enough to be worth a watch, though. In the end, it all just feels a little pointless.

Obviously it's a good number in a vacuum regardless, but that number is only "good" in relative terms (in comparison to the first) if it performs like the first over the rest of the weekend, which I doubt.

That big IMAX subcharge and you have to watch six minutes of that fucking movie? Disney should be PAYING people extra to watch that, not the other way around.

I got a trailer for fucking Self/Less and no Star Wars. Now that's lame as shit.

I don't know if I misread your post, but two pages ago you said that this is no way this would only do 89, and that the 89 number is grossly underestimated. So you seemed to be insinuating that it would be some crazy underperformance if this did 89 million today. But maybe I misinterpreted it. And I'm not attacking you, I'm debating you on a box office forum because I think your prediction is wrong. That's what we're here for.

How is it "somehow"? That would be the second highest opening day of all-time, and an absolutely massive number. Stop acting like people thinking this will do under 90 million are completely wrong, considering that's still absolutely massive and you gotta think this franchise has almost maxed out its audience.

Spectacular and massive number for AOU, bigger than I expected. Could do 100 It's NOT doing 250 million or 650 million like the highest end predictions here- come on. Midnight would have had to be much, much bigger. And it's just not gonna have the IM or the legs of the first one. That's how sequels work. It's gonna be more frontloaded. But that's a spectacular midnight. Movie kinda eh, though. I was pretty entertained while I was in it, but it's one of those movies I caution against thinking about afterwards- it falls apart if you think about it more.

1) Will Avengers make more than 22 million for previews? 2000 Yes 2) Will Avengers make more than 85 million OD? 2000 Yes 3) Will Avengers make more than 93 million OD? 2000 No 4) Will Avengers fall more than 22% on Saturday? Yes 5) Will Avengers fall more than 28% on Sunday? No 6) Will Avengers make more than 200 million? yes 7) Will Avengers make more than 210 million? Yes 8) Will Avengers make more than 20 million for the OW in Mexico? Yes 9) Will Avengers make more than 1 million OW in Portugal? Yes 10) Will Avengers surpass 600 mill at the WW box office, according to Mojo, Sunday estimates count only. Yes 11) Will The Cinemascore for Avengers be at least an A? Yes 12) Will Deadline's Friday report at any time contain the phrase, "Not a record"? No 13) Will RTH's last Friday report in the forum be within 5% of the studio estimated Friday number (if RTH for some reason doesn't show up this weekend, everyone's answer will be correct)? Yes 14) Will F7 fall more than 55%? Yes 15) Will any film in the top 10 fall less than 50 Yes 16) Will Paul Blart fall less than Get Hard? Yes 17) Will the top ten films gross more than 260 million? Yes 18) Will Age of Adeline have a Friday increase of more than 135%? Yes 19) Will F7 gross more than 40 million WW for the weekend? Yes 20) Will Get Hard stay in the top 10? Yes 21) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? Yes 22) Will the weekend gross of F7, Blart and Adeline gross at least 10% of what Avengers does? No 18/22 3000 19/22 5000 20/22 7000 21/22 9000 22/22 15,000 What films place in slots: 6 Ex Machina 7 Longest Ride 9 Unfriended 12 Woman in Gold 2000 for each correct place 5000 bonus if all four are correct Bonus 1: What will Avengers gross for the weekend? Please put to three decimal points. 5000 212.44 Bonus 2: What will the cume be for the films that finish in slots 2-6? 5000 29.5 Bonus 3: What will F7 gross on Saturday? 5000 3.2

Futurist loves being edgy and couldn't pass up the chance to do it here. Completely irrelevant to the topic. Bannable offense, actually. I ain't snitchin, though. That's all on the mods.

Totally, actually. I love Nolan movies but dude's fucking terrible at writing female roles.

Not at all, it's just the same fucked-up, close-minded type of worldview. It's not just a matter of the looks- it's a matter of the roles. There's nothing wrong with casting a beautiful actress as long as she is given something to do in terms of character and plot that isn't just her being the pretty foil to the audience surrogate.

The same people who say shirtless guys in Magic Mike is proof that Hollywood isn't sexist are the same types of people that say "But why don't we talk about when a black cop kills a white kid?!?!" It's just so fucking moronic. It's not a historical culture pattern, it's a random anomaly. Coincidentally, the same people who go out of their way to defend cops have the same type of worldview as those "Hollywood isn't sexist" gang.

TOP 15 1 - The Avengers: 568m 2 – Minions- 365m 3 – Jurassic World- 320m 4 – Inside Out- 262m 5 - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation: 228m 6 – Ted 2- 206m 7 – Terminator- 165m 8 – Ant-Man-162m 9 – Pitch Perfect- 155m 10 - Fant4stic: 150m 11 – Pixels-138m 12 – San Andreas-132m 13 – Straight Outta Compton-127m 14 – Mad Max-115m 15 Spy-106m International Flair #1 1 - Age of Ultron: 1.72b 2 - Jurassic World: 1.08b 3 - Minions: 915m 4 - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation: 790m 5 - Inside Out: 610m 6- Ted 2- 550m 7 - Terminator: Genisys: 530m 8 – Ant-Man- 500m 9 – San Andreas- 460m 10 – Fantastic- 420m International Flair #2 1 - Age of Ultron: 380m 2 - Jurassic World: 200m 3 - Minions: 150m 4- Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation: 145m 5 - Ant-Man: 130m TOP 5 OW 1 - Avengers: Age of Ultron: 210M 2 - Jurassic World: 115M 3 - Minions: 92m 4-MI5: 80m 5. Ted 2- 75m Lowest Grossing Films 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 - Tell me, of these five films, which one will be the lowest grossing of the summer. Only these five films can you choose from. She's Funny That Way-30 million FOR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 Tell me, within 5 million dollars, what its gross will be. Anyone who calls this within 5 million dollars (note you MUST CALL THE CORRECT FILM TO QUALIFY FOR THE 5000 BONUS PTS) whether it is over or under the total, will get the 10,000 points. Second Bonus Question: Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the summer: Only these five films. Terminator-160m For 10,000 POSSIBLE bonus points, tell me, within 5 million dollars, what its gross will be. Anyone who calls this within 5 million dollars (note you MUST CALL THE CORRECT FILM TO QUALIFY FOR THE 10,000 BONUS PTS) whether it is over or under the total, will get the 10,000 points. Third Bonus Question: Tell me, of these five films, which will be the highest grossing INTERNAtIONALLY (NOT WW, ONLY INTERNATIONALLY....ALL FIGURES ACCORDING TO BOXOFFICEMOJO.COM)? Mission Impossible- 600m For 15,000 bonus points, call the correct film within 25 mill. TRIPLE BONUS Here are your 16 bonus questions that have to be answered before the start date. Question 1: Will more than 3 films gross at least 110 million dollars Opening weekend domestically (3 day weekends count only) No Answer it correctly: 15,000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 8000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 3000 points. Question 2: Will more than two films gross at least 50 million dollars on opening day? No Answer it correctly: 15,000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 8000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 3000 points. Question 3: Will any film this summer have a worldwide weekend of more than 280 million? (THIS WILL INCLUDE ANY 5 DAY WEEKENDS. WHATEVER IS REPORTED FOR THE ACTUALS ON MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE NUMBER WE GO BY). But the weekend has to fall within the summer game dates. Yes Answer it correctly: 15,000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 8000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 5000 points. Question 4: Will any film make more than 51.5 million this summer in Australia? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 8000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 3000 points. Question 5: Will at least two films make more than 55 million dollars this summer in the UK box office? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 8000 points) 5000 points. Question 6: Will any film besides Avengers make more than 150 million in CHINA this summer? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 7: Will at least 2 films make at least a billion mill WW this summer? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 8: Will at least 5 films, listed as a comedy (could be sci-fi comedy...horror comedy...must have comedy listed somewhere in the genre ) by Box Office Mojo, make more than 120 million dollars this summer? No Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 9: Will at least 3 action films released after May, have a WW gross of more than 500 million? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 10: Which combination of films will make more money domestically? 1) Terminator, Spy, Jurassic World Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 5000 points) 3000 points. Question 11: Will any two films make more than 40 million in Russia this summer? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 12: Will the top two films combined make more this summer than the next 5 films combined (domestic only)? So to avoid any confusion like we have last summer, the question reads like this.... top 2 spots add up to more than slots 3-7. Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 13: Will any of the top 7 grossing sequels domestically this summer have a second weekend drop of less than 47.5%? Yes Answer it correctly: 15000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 10,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 10,000 points) 3000 points. Question 14: Will Avengers, Minions or Jurassic World have a Saturday increase minus the preview number? So take out the Thursday number and you get the true Friday number. You guys know the drill. Yes Answer it correctly: 25,000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 15,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 15,000 points) 5000 points. Question 15: Will Minions outgross Avengers in at least two of these regions this summer? No France Netherlands Venezuela Hungary Answer it correctly: 25,000 points Answer it incorrectly: lose 15,000 points Choose not to answer ( and you must state that you are not answering..failing to do so will automatically result in a loss of 15,000 points) 5000 points. PLAYERS: There may be more preseason bonus questions added before the start of the game. It is doubtful, but I hold the right to add a question if it seems right. The Ron Jeremy of all bonus questions This is a four parter: 1) Will Avengers make at least 600 million domestically? No 2) Will Avengers make more than a billion internationally? Yes 3) Will Avengers do at least 25 million for previews? Yes 4) Will Avengers make at least 1.8 billion WW? No Scoring: All questions you answer correctly are worth 7000 points. You can go for as many as you like. Here is the catch: Every answer you call incorrectly you lose 10,000 points. There are no points for abstaining, with one caveat down below. *** Even more bonus and more treachery: If you go 4/4 you get a 28,000 point bonus. So this means you will get a total of 56,000 points for this question (7000X4 plus 28,000 point bonus) However, if you go for all 4 you must get all four correct. If you get even one incorrect, you will lose 20,000 points. So what this means is, if you go for all four and even if you get 3/4 correct, not only will you NOT get the 11,000 but you will lose a full 15,000 points. This question is worth a lot of points for those ballsy enough to go for all 4, but it will kick your ass if you get too cocky. PLEASE READ THIS ONE CAREFULLY AND UNDERSTAND IT FULLY. IF YOU DO NOT, THEN ASK ME. ONCE THE GAME STARTS, CLAIMING YOU DIDN'T READ IT RIGHT WILL NOT BE AN EXCUSE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS IF YOU GO FOR ALL FOUR QUESTIONS, YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST GET ALL FOUR RIGHT IN ORDER TO GET POINTS. Remember, you don't have to answer any of them. Or you can answer as little as you want. It's totally up to you. You can choose to go for as many or as little as you want. ***CAVEAT*** If you choose to abstain from all 4, you will get 5000 for doing so. You must tell me if you are abstaining. NEW QUESTION: This is a four part question. Again, you have choices. Answer any part of the question. Each answer you get correct you will receive 7000 points. Each answer you get wrong, you will lose 7000 points. If you go for all four parts of the question, you must get all four parts correct. If you get even one wrong after going for it all, you will lose 7,000 points. You can go for all of it, none of it and some of it. Choice is yours. 17) Note*** Jurassic World does not qualify for this question A) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com gross more than 100 million dollars this summer? No Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com open to more than 35 mill? Yes C) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have a second weekend drop of less than 47%? No D) Will any film listed as a horror OR thriller film by boxofficemojo.com have an opening day of more than 13 mill? Yes Get any question right: 7000 Get any question wrong: -7000 Abstain from all four questions: 5000 Go for all four, and get all four correct not only will you get the 28,000, you get a bonus of 28,000. But you must go for all four to qualify for the bonus Double Secret Probation Bonus Question Very simple, but very dangerous. I'll give you a number, you tell me if Avengers will gross more or less than that number in said markets. 1) Russia: 42M Yes 2) Germany: 31.5M Yes 3) Portugal: 3M No 4) China: 200M Yes If you go for this question, you must get all 4 correct. This is not a partial question. If you get at least 3 of the 4 correct, you will get 50,000. If you choose to abstain from this question, you will lose 15,000 points. If you go for the question and you do not get at least 3 or the 4 correct, you will lose 30,000 points. Choose Wisely. The "Hey maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events but we just got our asses kicked pal" question of debauchery. Will Jurassic World and F7 combine to make more than Avengers in these markets? 1) Japan Yes 2) United Kingdom Yes 3) Columbia Yes 4) Mexico Yes 1) How many films will gross at least 100 million dollars this summer? You have a cushion of 1 film. So if you are off by 1, you still get full points. 15 2) How many films will make a billion dollars this summer? No cushion 2 3) What will the domestic total gross be for the top 3 horror films of the summer. II don't want to see anything but a number in your answer. Do not list the films. Cushion of 50 mill 170m 4) How many films will gross at least 40 million opening day? No cushion 3 5) How many films will make at least 500 million internationally? cushion of 1. 3 6) Will Terminator Genisys and Pitch Perfect 2 and Insidious 3 combine to gross more than F7 domestically? Yes 7) Will Ted 2 make more than Ted? No 8) Will Tele love Mad Max and will baumer love Jurassic World? Of course You must answer both. This is an honour system question. I will tell you right now that I think i will love Jurassic World. 9) Will any film released in August gross 100 mill before the end of the game? Yes 10) Will Self/Less make more than 40 million? No 11) How many films will make at least 750 million WW? 1 cushion 4 12) How many films will make at least 30 million OD? 1 cushion 4 13) Will Magic Mike XXL have a bigger opening day than Terminator genisys? No 14) Will Pan be one of the top 7 grossing films of the summer domestically? Not a part of summer anymore 15) Will Ant Man gross at least 500 mill WW? Yes 16) Will any film gross 250 million in China? Yes 17) Will any film have a WW weekend of more than 300 million (Avengers will only count from the time the game starts) Yes 18) Will Mission Impossible gross more than 200 million? Yes 19) Will Vacation gross more than 70 million? No 20) How many films will gross at least 305 million this summer? 3 21) Will Avengers gross more than the first one? No 22) Will any film besides Avengers make 25 million in Spain? Yes 23) Will any film besides Avengers make 65 million in the UK? Yes 24) Will Entourage make 100 mill or more? No 25) Will Avengers drop less than 55% second weekend? No