Cmasterclay

I'd kill for this movie to make enough money for it to have any actual controversy or discourse tbh. I think it's hysterics regardless but it's definitely hysterics for something that's going to do like 11/26 domestically. I also don't see what "danger" people are possibly talking about - what is an Alex Garland A24 movie going to inspire, after eight years of unbelievable divisiveness, mass shootings, Neo-Nazis, and an actual coup attempt - what violence or discourse can this inspire that is beyond what is already happening in America? Like this is the straw that broke the camel's back?

Never understood the hate for this film on these boards based on, I guess, a throwaway out of context line about political coalitions in the trailer? This is the exact kind of movie we should want - big budget auteur blockbuster with actual political stakes. It's the ideal type of film we should be supporting for adults. Glad to hear it is great.

Still not sold on the box office potential but glad the reviews came in as hyped - I remember all the pre-hype of Bullet Train reviews and it stunk up the joint (terrible movie). I actually think Deadpool 2 is his best movie by far and it seems to hit more of that tone.

He's a beast. Insane how amazing all the 1970s lineups are and how shitty all the 1980s lineups are. Reagan and Thatcher era the pits.

Amazing year. I just rewatched The French Connection the other day speaking of Hackman, and what a weird fucking Best Picture winner. Terrific film, but it's just a fucking action movie except with paradigm shaking levels of directing and grit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2020/02/06/oscars-what-should-have-won-best-picture/?_pml=1 Some spicy takes. I actually agree with Chinatown over Godfather II at the start. Godfather II obviously amazing but Chinatown is a perfect movie in every way outside of the "Personal Life" section of the director's Wikipedia. Godfather I is better than II and Chinatown is my philistine opinion.

Oppenheimer one of the few films that would win every single year (though it would be weird if it won pre-1945). Past dominant winners like Dances With Wolves, Lawrence of Arabia and Gone With The Wind too problematic for modern sensibilities. Lord of the Rings and Silence of the Lambs and any musical too genre for certain eras. One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest swept up but might not be "important" enough to win all the time. Even Titanic and Forrest Gump might get picked apart for being too goofy these days, though they did give it to Coda and EEAAO. Godfather I and II, Amadeus, Casablanca, Oppenheimer off top of my head that check every box in every era. May have forgotten something but point is Oppenheimer up there with most dominant contenders ever.

Hooooooo ahh!!!

I'd love to show an actual art film to any of the people who call the yearly Oscar Best Picture nominees "arty." Poor Things (which I didn't like) looks like Avengers: Endgame compared to a huge swath of acclaimed independent, foreign, and arthouse cinema.

Ryan Gosling is huge in the zeitgeist right now and a very talented guy but the next time he is a draw in an action film will be the first. Notebook, La La Land, Barbie, and Crazy Stupid Love. Those are his hits, and they all are not dude-targeted action movies from the director of John Wick. That's why I'm skeptical of Fall Guy compared to some predictions here. Anyway, I love Jeffrey Wright.

Poor Jonathan Glazer, there goes his dream of directing a Scream movie.

John Cena, The Rock, and Bad Bunny all presented in a row. General public would be amazed by who has had better WWE matches recently in that group.

The thing is I LOVE The Lobster and Sacred Deer. Absolutely love. Was mildly disappointed in the Favourite, and hated this starting around the 40 minute mark.

Poor Things winning all these awards. I feel like the scene in Mad Men when Don Draper listened to the Beatles and was mad he didn't get it. I do know all of John Cena's lore, though.

April is actually the kind of test of appealing adult filmmaking we want, with four weekends in a row of marketed, budgeted, and interesting adult films and room for them to take off. If none of them make real money, it's kind of a sign that things just are not meant to be. If they all fail, I don't want to hear the "but but but that film would have not made any money before COVID, it's a great result!" because the general consensus is these movies look good and interesting and are getting real marketing. They are an actual test.

Movie is gonna be a hit, still see a ton of memes about the log one.

Agreed. I think we are looking at 82m Dune 2 v Wick 73m, the two 58m openers in Creed and Panda, Godzilla opening to about exactly the 44m of Scream, Ghostbusters doing exactly the 37m of Dungeons, and Arthur the King doing 15m less OW than Shazam but honestly probably finishing not too far behind in total. This month will certainly be bigger in total because of Dune and Panda trouncing the legs of Wick and Creed. I do think that Ghostbusters can probably have a slightly better hold than Dungeons too. So a very nice March for the big releases, probably 125m more total than last year's big five openers. I am not too pressed at all about underperformances from smaller releases this month, but if Civil War, Monkey Man, and Challenges ALL bomb, I will be getting back to negative and depressed for now.

Getting to 300m off an 82m OW in March without any summer or holiday weekdays never seemed that feasible for me for Dune - it would require not just great legs, but some of the best legs for a live action sequel EVER. It definitely has great legs though. Predicted 55/180 for KFP4 in my 2024 predictions due to nostalgia and empty market and trailer views. I wavered a bit in recent weeks but I'm counting it as a W.

Never a doubt! The lesson, as with Minions and other examples - if tracking is gonna surprise, it's gonna be with a kids movie. Though frankly Quorum always lined up with me!

Panda a breakout hit after all and Dune turns out to be a disappointing flop as well? Another W prediction for Cmasterclay cool guy sunglasses emoji /s

Nonzero chance of two movies hitting 50m this weekend?? That'd be a godsend. Still at 47 for Dune and 45 for Panda.

Ska-doosh.

I'm really curious about legs. Obviously, the IM and word of mouth portend a leggy run, but plenty of blockbusters in modern times have had great IMs due to spillover business owing to PLF capacity and length that don't necessarily translate to legendary multipliers. Then again, this certainly feels like it could be the start of something. I think if it does 84 off a great Sunday hold, 235m seems reasonable - accounting for losing PLF screens on the 22nd, but also better legs than expected due to WOM.

If 29 is accurate, it is at 61 million, and would need 19 million on Sunday. That would be a 34% drop. A typical big March movie drops between 25 and 30% on Sunday - Wick dropped 28, Creed dropped 29. So to miss 80 would require a significantly steeper drop than most March live action movies. Not only does this look like it won't have a steeper drop, but based on that strong Saturday, it actually looks to have a much better drop than a typical March Sunday due to spillover demand and WOM, so something like a 20.5% drop down to 23 would be realistic, which would get it to 84. That's where I predict IF 29 for today is accurate in the end.